1934: Dark Clouds and Silver Linings
Part Two: Of Mice, Men and Trotskyists
But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an' men
Gang aft a-gley,
An' lea'e us nought but grief an' pain,
For promised joy.
The study of diplomacy often centers on rational, logical and empircal basis. Accidents of fate and the flights of fortunes as well as the individual personalities of the various world leaders are often treated as unimportant at best compared to socio-economic, cultural, historical, geopolitical and ideological conditions conditions. This history of the 20th century should caution us against such a narrow approach. One has to ask several pressing questions against this theory - would the long lasting Sino-German friendship have been pssible without the admittedly unlikely friendship that developed between Adolf Hitler and Chiang Kai-Shek? Would a more rational and less insane Joseph Stalin demanded the recall of the Trotsky and the Soviet Advisors following the death of Sergei Kirov?
Other significant events of the last century have essentially been the acts of fate, chance and personality and it would be unwise to disregard these factors.
- Diplomacy in the 20th Century, Monique Kerr
Nadezhda Alliluyeva - Stalin's 2nd wife and anchor to the realm of reality.
It is a generally agreed upon fact that following the death of Stalin's second wife Nadezhda Alliluyeva that Stalin began his winding and twistry road to full blown insanity and to quote a Russian historian "left the realm of reality." This descent into madness would be a long and winding process with Stalin occasionally taking vacations in the realm of reality. In 1934 though Stalin was in full blown paranoia mode. The emergence of a popular challenger in the form of Sergei Kirov only served to enrage Stalin.
Predictably Sergei Kirov later died at the hand of an assasin. Predictably, Stalin used it as an excuse to expel Trotsky and other potential challengers from the Communist Party. Predictably, a show trial was arranged where the assasin - Leonid Nikolaev confessed and said that the assasination was arranged by a ring of "Senior Trotskyists." Predictably there was a large ring around the country full of such supposed 'traitors.' Predictably many of these traitors were in the military and many of these traitors turned out to be opponents of Stalin and Stalinism. The
"Great Purges" would effectively destroy the Soviet Union's armed forces organizational capacity and facilitate her humiliation at the hands of the "little Entete" and Japan in late 1930.
Stalin personally demanded the recall of the Soviet Mission from China. The steam ship that had been arranged to return Trotsky and the others was unfortunately 'hijacked' by this motly band of revolutionaries and they comandeered the ship all the way for Mexico - perhaps an unlikely place for a revolutionary to end up - but nevertheless Leon Trotsky was now Senor Trotsky.
The Chinese learnt a lesson from this. The Soviets could ultimately not be trusted. Although Soviet help for the Silk Railway was still forthcoming relations between the two powers turned from warm to cool. Chiang's best laid plan's for breaking China's diplomatic isolation were unravelled and it was then that he and China turned to Italy...
Next Update:
The Duce and the Generalissimo: Sino-Italian Cooperation.