Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

The butterfly effect. So much of history was decided by random chance, weather patterns that could have changed on a dime because so and so burned too much wood that day, some guy just being hit by a stray arrow or drinking bad water, this sperm cell winning over that sperm cell, this colony surviving but not that colony, etc.

Frankly while broad strokes can remain the same, predicting a USA as we know it will ever exist is frankly impossible without a butterfly net of preposterous scale. To begin with every single liberal treatise such as Locke, Descartes, Voltaire etc that influenced the US’s existence does not itself exist yet because the POD predates the fricking Enlightenment.
I do agree that broad strokes would stay the same but I don't think the author would want to write about alternate works of alternate ppls for colonisation and the birth of democracy in the enlightenment.
Also no Japan being open won’t magically fix Spain’s issues but I similarly fail to see how it will magically give Japan the ability and desire to colonise and lay claim to California before Spain.

I can see Japanese Alaska and British Columbia tho, following from the Kurils, Aleutians, and Kamchatka.
I don't see the Japanese being the first ppl to get to California but it doesn't mean they can't go south from Alaska and BC (as an extension of the fur trade in Siberia) to get to California and take it from the Spanish when the Mexicans rebel. Or have the US swallow everything.
 
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Hello,

From the 1610s onward, are there changes taking place in Japanese society as a result of slightly greater interaction with Europe?

From fashion…
(This actually started in the 1850s OTL)
Do some articles clothing from Europe be an improvement over some Japanese clothing?

To jewelry…

To firearms
I have to look more into fashion but I assume there would be changes. Gunpowder technology will keep up with Europe much more than OTL.
I wonder if we’ll see changes to Southeast Asia. Japanese merchants had a quite a large presence there and Japanese mercenaries are quite interesting there, especially Yamada Nagamasa in Siam
Look out for the next update for Southeast Asia and Japan’s greater impact in the region.
 
Chapter 29: Merchants and Mercenaries in Southeast Asia

Chapter 29: Merchants and Mercenaries in Southeast Asia


Southeast Asia was a region in flux in the early 17th century, with native kingdoms and sultanates like Siam and Maguindanao competing not only with each other but also with the ever growing presence of Europeans, from the Dutch in Java to the Spanish in the Philippines. Even the Ottoman Empire based in far away Constantinople held political sway in the East Indies.

It was amidst this complex situation that Japanese red seal ships first spread across the South China Sea and made their presence felt in major ports like Manila and Malacca from the 1580s onwards. The ensuing economic and cultural exchanges impacted both ends, with Japanese merchants bringing in mainly silver, copper, katana swords, and handcrafted goods and leaving with Chinese silk, deerskins, sugar, and sappanwood back to the realm. These profitable interactions boosted trade expansion efforts by Azuchi, bringing more Japanese to the shores of Southeast Asian, and it wasn’t long before small “Nihonmachi ” (日本町) Japanese enclaves popped up all over Southeast Asia. Oda Nobuhide the Younger visited the Japanese enclave in Dilao within Manila in 1597 on his diplomatic expedition to the Philippines. Taking note of what he saw, he wrote down a proposal to incorporate the various enclaves into the greater Japanese cultural and economic sphere. However, due to his tragic death that year, it would be 23 years before his writings on the subjects were properly analyzed and implemented by Azuchi as part of a greater effort to reinvigorate the realm’s foreign policy after stagnation earlier in Nobunori’s chancellorship.​

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Sappanwood, a sought after product from the tropics​

Many Japanese transplants were ronin dispossessed by unification wars and other circumstances who became mercenaries on foreign soil. They would prove to be among the most elite and talented warriors for their hosts, some even becoming commanders within foreign armies. The most notable example of this was Honjo Shigenaga and his three sons, Akinaga (本庄顕長), Mitsunaga (本庄充長), and Fusanaga (本庄房長), ex-Uesugi vassals who left Echigo province after they finally surrendered to Oda forces in 1583 and eventually ended up with their extended retinue in Ayutthaya several years later. Around this time, Ayutthaya had gained independence from the Myanma [1] Taungoo Empire in 1584 and re-established a Siamese kingdom in the region, and the Honjo clan would find employment under King Naresuan. Shigenaga and his sons partook in Naresuan’s expansionist campaigns against the Taungoo Empire, Cambodia, and Lan Na throughout the 1590s, with accounts of the old Echigo samurai even leading a charge of samurai mercenaries atop an elephant. Shigenaga in time also became an important conduit between Japanese merchants and the Siamese court, even helping establish unofficial contact with Japan in the early 1600s, both in Azuchi and Iriebashi. The prestige and success of the Honjo clan also led to the cultivation of Southeast Asia’s biggest and most influential “Nihonmachi” within Ayutthaya. Eventually, Shigenaga attained nobility status in Siam, and his second son and successor Mitsunaga would go on to become a close advisor to Naresuan’s nephew, Si Saowaphak [2], the Siamese king from 1610. Mitsunaga would expand Japanese economic and political power directly in the Siamese royal court and helped increase the usage of mortars, arquebuses, and other gunpowder weapons in the kingdom’s military.​

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Depiction of Honjo Shigenaga parrying an exploding shell​

Other powers, European and native alike, employed samurai mercenaries as well, although on a more contractual basis compared to the situation in Siam. They became especially sought by the Dutch East India Company in their efforts to wrest control of ports from Portugal and Spain to a lesser extent and establish a territorial foothold in the region. In particular, samurai units played a key role in conquering the Banda islands for the Dutch between 1609 and 1621. The Iberian powers failed to compete with the VOC [3] in recruiting due to greater suspicion amongst Japanese towards them because of the events in Nagasaki in 1587, although Catholic samurai mercenaries from northern Kyushu assisted the Portuguese in defending Macau from the Dutch in 1622. Eventually, Azuchi banned samurai from becoming mercenaries in inter-European conflicts in 1623 after Spain and Portugal protested to Nobunori and Zhu Changxun, now Emperor Zhenchun after his father’s death in 1620, demanded compensation for damages to Macau because of mercenary participation in the battle on both sides. The practice, however, illicitly continued on a smaller scale.

A notable mercenary and swordsman during this time was Miyamoto Harunobu (宮本玄信), better known as Miyamoto Musashi (宮本武蔵). Musashi spent the early part of his life traveling the realm and engaging in duels before traveling to Manila in 1611 and becoming employed by the Spanish, participating in various expeditions and suppressions of rebellions. He became well-known for his swordsmanship and combat skills and even attained a level of leadership in Dilao. However, after the Martyrdom of the 13 in Nagasaki in 1617, fear of retaliation saw him leave for Ayutthaya, where he entered the service of the Honjo clan and participated in the 1620 campaign against Cambodia, which had begun to resist Siamese hegemony and favored closer relations with the Vietnamese Nguyen lords. Musashi then was enticed into service under the VOC in the final Dutch conquest of the Banda islands in 1621. While achieving much fame, success, and profit in this campaign, the gruesome aftermath disillusioned the talented warrior from further mercenary work. He would subsequently settle down in Iriebashi and focused on kenjutsu (剣術) training and teaching, establishing his own style of swordsmanship.​

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Portrait of Miyamoto Musashi​

[1]: The term Burma is never used ITTL.

[2]: Si Saowaphak was not assassinated in 1611 or taken hostage by Japanese traders in 1610. If anything, the Japanese in Siam become some of his biggest backers under the Honjo clan.

[3]: Abbreviation for Verenigde Oostindische Compagnie the Dutch translation of the Dutch East India Company​
 
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Great chapter, though sad to see the vassalization of Cambodia (I'm half-Khmer), though it wasn't too different from OTL, as Cambodia wasn't having the best centuries... for a long while now. Still, interesting development in SEA. With the Japanese interfering in Siamese affairs, I'm wondering if Sukhothai Dynasty will survive in Ayutthaya, maybe even to the modern day.
 
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I do hope the Dutch considers being allies with Japan since they can continue reducing Portugal's and Spain's influence and trades and have an ally in case one of the nations start attacking their colonies SEA. I'm wondering how the Ottoman's reaction to Japan since Aceh Sultanate is a protectorate and somewhat a colony.
 
I do hope the Dutch considers being allies with Japan since they can continue reducing Portugal's and Spain's influence and trades and have an ally in case one of the nations start attacking their colonies SEA. I'm wondering how the Ottoman's reaction to Japan since Aceh Sultanate is a protectorate and somewhat a colony.
The Dutch historically were the only European power allowed to trade with Japan so it’s certainly possible
 
The Dutch historically were the only European power allowed to trade with Japan so it’s certainly possible
True, I imagine that both of them will end up dividing Iberian's Asian colonies as well which kingdoms/sultanates in SEA and Oceania between each other and Siam of course.
 
I do hope the Dutch considers being allies with Japan since they can continue reducing Portugal's and Spain's influence and trades and have an ally in case one of the nations start attacking their colonies SEA. I'm wondering how the Ottoman's reaction to Japan since Aceh Sultanate is a protectorate and somewhat a colony.
I’ll definitely have to do more research for all the reasons. Tbh this chapter was the most difficult to write for me thus far because I didn’t know much about 17th century Southeast Asia in detail beforehand, and there are so many political entities around that time in the area, all with their own intriguing histories and backgrounds. That being said, Southeast Asian history is a joy to learn so far and it’s a shame this region gets little to no spotlight in alt history so I definitely want to give the region a fair shake and proper coverage.
 
I’ll definitely have to do more research for all the reasons. Tbh this chapter was the most difficult to write for me thus far because I didn’t know much about 17th century Southeast Asia in detail beforehand, and there are so many political entities around that time in the area, all with their own intriguing histories and backgrounds. That being said, Southeast Asian history is a joy to learn so far and it’s a shame this region gets little to no spotlight in alt history so I definitely want to give the region a fair shake and proper coverage.
Good luck researching them.
 
True, I imagine that both of them will end up dividing Iberian's Asian colonies as well which kingdoms/sultanates in SEA and Oceania between each other and Siam of course.
The problem with that is that both Manila and Macau are very well defended fortress, the Philippines especially have a direct contact with Mexico which makes it easier for Spain to resupply the garrison, so while a place like Timor can still fall I don't see the Asian pearls of Iberia being subjugated, especially because Japan benefits from trading with both powers and powering up the Dutch might not be a good idea if the japanese want to be the regional power.

Not to mention, the British, French and Russians are gonna be coming into Asia proper in a couple years, especially as Dutch supremacy starts to weaken more with time.
 
The problem with that is that both Manila and Macau are very well defended fortress, the Philippines especially have a direct contact with Mexico which makes it easier for Spain to resupply the garrison, so while a place like Timor can still fall I don't see the Asian pearls of Iberia being subjugated, especially because Japan benefits from trading with both powers and powering up the Dutch might not be a good idea if the japanese want to be the regional power.

Not to mention, the British, French and Russians are gonna be coming into Asia proper in a couple years, especially as Dutch supremacy starts to weaken more with time.
That "direct contact" is a journey that takes months at best and occurred a grand total of twice a year - the Pacific is really big, with a whole lot of nothing in between - Manila could hold out for some time, but Japan is practically right there in comparison to Spain. There isn't exactly any reason as of yet to try and take it though.
 
That "direct contact" is a journey that takes months at best and occurred a grand total of twice a year - the Pacific is really big, with a whole lot of nothing in between - Manila could hold out for some time, but Japan is practically right there in comparison to Spain. There isn't exactly any reason as of yet to try and take it though.
Exactly, the japanese have a pretty good trade deal there and benefit much more from having several European powers they can pin against one another while taking care to trade valuables and further strength the empire.

Although this makes me wonder, is there other places that Japan could conquer that would be strategically sound? Maybe some islands in the Pacific until they can make contact with the Hawaiians.
 
Exactly, the japanese have a pretty good trade deal there and benefit much more from having several European powers they can pin against one another while taking care to trade valuables and further strength the empire.

Although this makes me wonder, is there other places that Japan could conquer that would be strategically sound? Maybe some islands in the Pacific until they can make contact with the Hawaiians.
The Ryukyu Islands, Guam, Midway, Carolina and Mariana Islands, Kurils, Sakhalin, Aleutians.
 
The problem with that is that both Manila and Macau are very well defended fortress, the Philippines especially have a direct contact with Mexico which makes it easier for Spain to resupply the garrison, so while a place like Timor can still fall I don't see the Asian pearls of Iberia being subjugated, especially because Japan benefits from trading with both powers and powering up the Dutch might not be a good idea if the japanese want to be the regional power.

Not to mention, the British, French and Russians are gonna be coming into Asia proper in a couple years, especially as Dutch supremacy starts to weaken more with time.
In fact, it is worth considering here that Japan can take advantage of the crisis in Europe - say the Thirty Years' War, and negotiate with the opponents of the Spaniards (say the Dutch and French). In fact, I met such a scenario in one Russian-language timeline.
 
Any changes in Philippine? Also I am surprised Japanese not tried to expand Mercantile interest towards india.
The Philippines has stayed mostly the same except less Japanese because no diaspora of Kirishitans. Japanese trade will eventually expand to India, the realm just needs to have enough economic and political power projection closer to home first.
The Ryukyu Islands, Guam, Midway, Carolina and Mariana Islands, Kurils, Sakhalin, Aleutians.
For now, the Ryukyu Kingdom is kinda in both the Japanese and Ming spheres of influence, so Japan would take Ming retaliation if they take further steps. As of now, the Ryukyu Kingdom becoming a direct tributary, vassal, or protectorate is very unlikely and there is chance that Okinawa never becomes Japanese.
 
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