Henry VIII dies in December 1536

And if you want to level it up, have Franco-England marry a second son into Portugal so you end up with Valois Portugal instead of Habsburg/Braganza Portugal.
There weren't THAT many Portuguese infantas available and of suitable age. Maybe Mary's granddaughter marries Sebastian. That could be fun
 
But if Maria of Austria succeeds in Portugal on her father's death, that provides more Portuguese options, but yes, more likely a grandchild marriage than a child.
 
H8 dying earlier (usually in jousting accident) was done many times. Especially with him dying in 1536. But depending of part of that year we can have very different outcomes.

Why December (late December-I want Henry to have some nasty accident between Christmas and New Year)? Because of combination of events, that would not last long. Henry is married to Jane Seymour, but their son was not conceived yet. That leaves Mary as obvious heir (once it is clear, that her step-mom is not pregnant). Meanwhile James V is in France, about to marry Madaleine (news of uncle's death may not even reach him), Emperor Charles V is not yet widowed and Mary's OTL husband is 9 years old. That leaves... Duke of Beja?

So what happens? With whom Mary rules England?
Well, don't get too comfortable yet, folks, the OP has specified it's between Christmas and New Year (I highlighted it above), so Mary is not becoming Queen.

A child born on October 12th, which Edward was, could be conceived in December. 40 weeks from October 12 is January 5th, however, according to https://www.whattoexpect.com/ - "Only 1 in 20 babies are born on their actual due date. A normal pregnancy often lasts from 38 to 42 weeks, which keeps the majority of parents guessing right up until delivery day." - so Jane could realistically be pregnant when Henry kicks the bucket. (42 weeks pre October 12th is Wednesday, December 22, 2021 (Source: https://calculat.io/en/date/count/42--weeks--before--12-october-2022) which is actually BEFORE Christmas, so is not butterflied away by Henry's accident.

That could open a whole can of worms then - initially, everyone flocks to Mary... then Jane's belly begins to grow and she's been in mourning for Henry, so she hasn't been... aheming... anyone else, so it's clear it's Henry's child.
Cue interregnum while Jane remains pregnant. The child, regardless of gender, is Henry's only legitimate child, so would succeed. If it's Edward, cue fifteen years of Protestantism definitively ingrained into England.

So, even if Henry dies in December, there's no guarantee Mary will be Queen. Jane could, realistically, be expecting when Henry dies. She just doesn't know it yet.

So that could put the kibosh on any plans above.
 
Well, don't get too comfortable yet, folks, the OP has specified it's between Christmas and New Year (I highlighted it above), so Mary is not becoming Queen.

A child born on October 12th, which Edward was, could be conceived in December. 40 weeks from October 12 is January 5th, however, according to https://www.whattoexpect.com/ - "Only 1 in 20 babies are born on their actual due date. A normal pregnancy often lasts from 38 to 42 weeks, which keeps the majority of parents guessing right up until delivery day." - so Jane could realistically be pregnant when Henry kicks the bucket. (42 weeks pre October 12th is Wednesday, December 22, 2021 (Source: https://calculat.io/en/date/count/42--weeks--before--12-october-2022) which is actually BEFORE Christmas, so is not butterflied away by Henry's accident.

That could open a whole can of worms then - initially, everyone flocks to Mary... then Jane's belly begins to grow and she's been in mourning for Henry, so she hasn't been... aheming... anyone else, so it's clear it's Henry's child.
Cue interregnum while Jane remains pregnant. The child, regardless of gender, is Henry's only legitimate child, so would succeed. If it's Edward, cue fifteen years of Protestantism definitively ingrained into England.

So, even if Henry dies in December, there's no guarantee Mary will be Queen. Jane could, realistically, be expecting when Henry dies. She just doesn't know it yet.

So that could put the kibosh on any plans above.

Lets assume, that Edward is not born, that is main point of my thread. Also, at that early stages, Jane may lost Eddie due to stress (that is why posthumous kids born 9 months, let alone more, after father's death are very rare), and may not be even aware about this (if he was conceived at that, which is unlikely, even if possible). Your scenario is very unlikely.
 
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Lets assume, that Edward is not born, that is main point of my thread. Also, at that early stages, Jane may lost Eddie due to stress (that is why posthumous kids born 9 months, let alone more, are very rare), and may not be even aware about this (if he was conceived at that, which is unlikely, even if possible). Your scenario is very unlikely.
Perhaps, but so is Mary being the heir. c 1536, both Liz and Mary are illegitimate - next in line, since the 1543 Act of Succession hadn't barred them, is Margaret, Dowager Queen of Scots...
 
Perhaps, but so is Mary being the heir. c 1536, both Liz and Mary are illegitimate - next in line, since the 1543 Act of Succession hadn't barred them, is Margaret, Dowager Queen of Scots...
And why will Margaret of Scotland take the throne herself, since she's proven to be horrible with leadership position, when she can marry her niece off to her son?
 
Perhaps, but so is Mary being the heir. c 1536, both Liz and Mary are illegitimate - next in line, since the 1543 Act of Succession hadn't barred them, is Margaret, Dowager Queen of Scots...
Mary was illegitimate in 1553 as well. It means nothing once Henry dies, that BS about Mary being bastard would be ignored.
 
And why will Margaret of Scotland take the throne herself, since she's proven to be horrible with leadership position, when she can marry her niece off to her son?
Mary was illegitimate in 1553 as well. It means nothing once Henry dies, that BS about Mary being bastard would be ignored.
Yeah. Mary wouldn't be considered a bastard - and neither would Elizabeth. Elizabeth will be raised Catholic as Mary's little sister
The Second Succession Act was formally titled An Act concerning the Succession of the Crown, and was also known as the Succession to the Crown: Marriage Act 1536. The Act followed the conviction and execution of Anne Boleyn, and removed both her daughter, Elizabeth I, and Mary I, Henry's daughter by his first wife, from the line of succession. It superseded the First Succession Act, which had declared Mary to be illegitimate and Elizabeth to be heir presumptive. This new act declared that Elizabeth was also a bastard. As a result, Henry was left without any legitimate child to inherit the throne after his death, although this would change upon the birth of Edward VI in October 1537.

Because Henry had no legitimate offspring at the time of the passage of the Act, the Act gave Henry "full and plenary power and authority" to choose who would succeed him if he died without an heir of his body, by naming his successor in letters patent or in his last will.

The Act also created several offences of high treason connected with interrupting the succession to the throne of any person so chosen, or with saying that Henry's first two marriages to Catherine of Aragon and Anne Boleyn had been valid, or that his third marriage to Jane Seymour was invalid, or with saying either of his daughters were legitimate and any son of his third marriage was not.

Bang, per the 1536 Act of Succession neither daughter has a valid claim to the throne when Henry kicks it since both are illegitimate and they are bared.

Either Henry names Mary his heir in his will - unlikely, since he probably hasn't written one since he wasn't intending on dying - or the throne goes to the next legitimate heir in line - Margaret of Scotland - or it's civil war between Liz and Mary's supporters.
 
or it's civil war between Liz and Mary's supporters.
And who exactly are Elizabeth's supporters who are going to be able to hold up against a Habsburg invasion (as Charles would be VERY INVESTED in ensuring Mary was queen)? France? Because they're still Catholic, and they have enough on their own plate...
 
And who exactly are Elizabeth's supporters who are going to be able to hold up against a Habsburg invasion (as Charles would be VERY INVESTED in ensuring Mary was queen)? France? Because they're still Catholic, and they have enough on their own plate...
IOTL, Charles waffled on supporting Mary and was, in actuality, utterly thrilled when Jane Grey became Queen, so there's no guarantee he'd support her especially as he's away fighting wars right now too, so has other things to bother with.
 
There is no need for Charles V's involvement. Mary would easily win on her own. She has no serious rival.
Except legally she's illegitimate, so she'd be a usurper. Per the 1536 Act of Succession neither she nor Elizabeth have a claim and that Act was law at the time. So she'd have a lot of problems assuring her succession given that she cannot legally inherit - and that's not due to the Protestant/Catholicism divide - that's law passed by Parliament.
 
Except legally she's illegitimate, so she'd be a usurper. Per the 1536 Act of Succession neither she nor Elizabeth have a claim and that Act was law at the time. So she'd have a lot of problems assuring her succession given that she cannot legally inherit - and that's not due to the Protestant/Catholicism divide - that's law passed by Parliament.
And you really think people give a shit about what parliament says? No. They don’t. If Mary has the support, then she’s queen. And she will likely have the support.
 
Except legally she's illegitimate, so she'd be a usurper. Per the 1536 Act of Succession neither she nor Elizabeth have a claim and that Act was law at the time. So she'd have a lot of problems assuring her succession given that she cannot legally inherit - and that's not due to the Protestant/Catholicism divide - that's law passed by Parliament.
If not Mary who?

Henry's sister? Margerat Tudor the Queen Mother in Scotland. Her son James V or Henry's niece Frances Grey?
 
And you really think people give a shit about what parliament says? No. They don’t. If Mary has the support, then she’s queen. And she will likely have the support.\
Remember, the English people are all for legality - it's why Mary prevailed over Jane Grey: she had Henry's will and the Act of Succession 1543 saying she came after Edward, and that's why the people rose up with her - she was being denied what was rightfully her's. Here, she has neither. In fact, the law says opposite - she's illegitimate and cannot inherit.
If not Mary who?

Henry's sister? Margerat Tudor the Queen Mother in Scotland. Her son James V or Henry's niece Frances Grey?
C. 1536, it's Margaret, since Henry hasn't expressly disowned them, which he did in the 1543 Act of Succession.
There is simply no realistic alternative to Mary.
Frances, English, daughter of Mary.
James V, Scottish, daughter of Margaret, both grandchildren of Henry VII.
Both are 2nd and 4th, c. 1536.
 
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