2018 Presidential Election

I'd say the transition would have been almost totally complete by the time the post-1990 Census districts came into effect.

Although the last RL congressman to remain in office was Ron Paul* who left office in 2011 and was replaced by former Vinick campaign advisor Bob Mayer.

*- Which was almost entirely because Paul was a favorite of a certain kind of young, white** nerd when the old thread kicked off and so memes of him were everywhere when they were writing the House list.
**-Given that he was a Republican and either wrote incredibly racist newsletters or allowed to run under his name, I feel pretty confident saying the people who liked him were almost entirely white.
 
Here's infoboxes for all four presidential campaigns. For the Greens, since they didn't do primaries, they didn't get a primary election box like the GOP did, so here's their convention's box. For the other three campaigns, it's the most recent non-presidential election where one of the ticket was a nominee.

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Cast (all previously established)
Angelina Jolie as Susan Buckner
Malcolm Barrett as Anderson Gerald
Sterling K. Brown as Bobby Tyler
Mark Feuerstein as Cliff Calley
Shawn Doyle as Davis Roberts
Teri Polo as Helen Santos
Chris Noth as Andrew Long
Jamey Sheridan as Bradley Denning
Bruce Willis as Alan Duke

  • Excluding presidential elections, the last three elections the other members of the non-Green tickets ran in were in 2014 (Rudden won a term of her own in Indiana) & 2016 (Seaborn's second Senate election). Pendleton, of course, never ran for elected office before this cycle.
  • Kind of a happy accident that two of those elections (2017 Virginia governor, 2018 Texas Senate) both had show characters competing against future presidential/vice presidential candidates.
 
Attached is the full (and slightly edited) version of the three part series of How Duke picked Pendleton as his running-mate (all 3,500 words of it).
 

Attachments

  • Duke Vice-President pick article.pdf
    158.8 KB · Views: 165
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NBS Election HQ: House ratings and projections

Tuesday, August 16th, 2022

With many states having finished or about to finish their down-ballot primaries, the NBS Election HQ is ready to unveil our ratings and projections for the House of Representatives.

In contrast to the presidential race, our polling and modelling shows that both parties have an almost equal shot of taking the first House since the 2020 Census caused the states to redraw their district maps. While the Democrats hold a very narrow lead in the generic congressional polls, Republicans have a very slight advantage in the number of seats we have projected as either leaning Republican or that are safe for the Grand Old Party in November.

There are two seats remaining (Florida's 22nd district and New York's 12th) where party primaries will decide between which of the two incumbent Democrats redrawn into those districts will be the party's nominee, but they are both seats we project to be safe for Democrats and thus do not appear on this list.

In subsequent updates to our House projections and ratings, we will also make notes of which races' ratings have changed. We expect that more seats will move out of the "swing" category and into either the lean-Democratic or lean-Republican columns as it gets closer to November.

A few notes to remember for readers: many districts on this list do not correspond exactly to the districts of the current Congress, owing to redistricting. Several House districts were abolished and some new ones created or restored, as states grew faster or slower than the nation as a whole. Additionally, only safe seats for either party that we project will result in a seat changing hands will be listed under those categories.

Additionally, special notes should be taken regarding two districts: California's 32nd and Ohio's 1st. The former is the successor to the current 30th district held by retiring representative Randy Celeste, who switched to the Green Party last year and stood for the party's presidential nomination last month. The latter is the only contest where two incumbent representatives of different parties have been redrawn into one district: Vince Mercer (R) and Janet Reese (D). We have labelled Mercer as the incumbent, but have added an asterisk to note the unusual circumstance of him facing another sitting representative in the general election.

Generic Congressional Polling
Democratic: 46%
Republican: 45%
undecided/other: 9%

Projected Seat Totals
Republican: 198
Democratic: 197

toss-up: 40

SEATS TO WATCH
SAFE DEM*
CA-21 (new)
CA-32 (open)
CA-50 (open)
IL-03 (new)
IL-13 (new)

NJ-11 (open)
TX-07 (open)
TX-32 (open)


LEAN DEM
CA-09 (Joseph)
CA-22 (Gorman)
CA-51 (Pérez)

CO-08 (new)
CT-05 (Lyman)
DE-AL (Mathis)
FL-24 (Armitage)
FL-28 (Cervantes)
GA-02 (Heyward)
KY-03 (Nealling)
ME-02 (Zelowsky)
MD-06 (Phelps)
MI-08 (Arthur)
MN-08 (Samuels)
NV-01 (Maxwell)
NV-04 (O'Rourke)
NH-01 (Barlos)

NM-02 (Oswald)
NY-03 (Tucker)
NY-18 (open)
NY-22 (Rivers)

NC-14 (new)
OR-05 (new)

PA-01 (Fitzjames)
PA-08 (Cipriani)
TX-23 (Ramírez)


TOSSUP
AZ-01 (Schwerner)
AZ-04 (Avila)
AR-02 (Stanton)

CA-03 (Taylor)
CA-06 (Brass)
CA-26 (Vinick)
CA-27 (Vazquez)
CA-45 (Hull)
CA-47 (King)
CA-49 (open)

CO-05 (Schultz)
CT-02 (Mazur)
FL-13 (Minnear)

FL-15 (new)
IA-01 (Pence)
IA-02 (Blount)

IL-14 (Schweitzer)
IL-17 (open)
KS-03 (Galloway)
MI-03 (Milos)

MI-10 (new)
MN-02 (open)
NV-03 (open)
NY-11 (Catsimidis)

NY-17 (Powell)
NY-19 (open)
NY-21 (Voight)

NC-13 (new)
OH-01 (Mercer*)
OH-09 (open)
OH-13 (open)
OR-06 (Young)

PA-04 (Daniels)
PA-06 (Pitter)

PA-07 (Ackermann)
PA-17 (Jacobs)

SC-04 (Barclay)
VA-10 (Cameron)
WA-08 (Leggitt)

WI-03 (open)


LEAN REP
CA-13 (Durham)
CA-40 (Church)
CA-41 (MacLauchlin)

FL-04 (new)
FL-21 (open)
IA-03 (open)
MI-07 (Gibson)

MT-01 (new)

NE-02 (Garrett)
NJ-07 (Ramsey)
NY-02 (McHenry)

OR-04 (Zucker)
PA-10 (open)

VA-07 (Hanson)

SAFE REP*
FL-19 (open)
MN-07 (open)
MT-02 (open)
OH-02 (open)
TN-05 (open)

TX-08 (new)
 
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Atlantis Cable News

After long delay, SS Britannic arrives in Cyprus

Akrotiri, Cyprus-
After a collision in the straights of Gibraltar forced her into dry dock to fixed a damaged propeller, the SS Britannic has finally arrived in Akrotiri. UK officials have indicated that it will take sometime to get the approximately 20,000 refugees aboard the vessel for the short journey to Athens. Per the agreement made between the Turkish & UK governments, the Britannic arrived unescorted by armed vessels.

Meanwhile, the fighting between the EOKA III resistance fighters and the Turkish army has spiked once again, as the Turks continue to try and instill the Turkish Cypriot regime on the island.
 
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Wednesday August 17th, 2022

Tom Clark, son of former vice-president urges "vote for anyone but Duke"


Tom Clark, 30, the son of former vice-president Liz Clark has urged people to vote for anyone but Duke in the Presidential election.

Clark, who is openly bi-sexual praised, the three other major tickets for the presidency during a six minute Youtube video released earlier today "I am not telling who you should for, but vote for anyone but Alan Duke" he praised President Seaborn for the the Civil Rights Act of 2019, that outlawed discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. He also said that during his time as a teenager in Texas, he actually worked part-time for Maverick Mobile which was owned by independent candidate Andrew Long "I worked for Andrew Long he was a good employer, he did a lot of good for Texas" whilst he praised the "amazing work" Green nominee Susan Buckner has done in Africa with HIV prevention. "All three of these candidates, are good people" adding "vote for which one best fits your hopes and your values" but "don't vote for Alan Duke, people say, Tom, he is like your mother, well I say he is nothing like my mother, for one thing my mother didn't didn't disown one of her own children because of their sexuality", adding the election of Alan Duke to the Presidency "would be setting back all the progress this country has made on civil rights, LGBT+ rights, and religious freedom" adding " we would be going down a very dark path".

The video has already received millions of views, Clark who works as a graphic designer has a massive following on social media. Clark is understood to have dated pop star Madison Pope, a few years ago, Pope also expressed similar remarks regarding Alan Duke when she spoke at the democratic national convention last month. No one from the Duke campaign as yet to respond to the video.
 
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Atlantis Cable News

After long delay, SS Britannic arrives in Cyprus

Akrotiri, Cyprus-
After a collision in the straights of Gibraltar forced her into dry dock to fixed a damaged propeller, the SS Britannic has finally arrived in Akrotiri. UK officials have indicated that it will take sometime to get the approximately 20,000 refugees aboard the vessel for the short journey to Athens. Per the agreement made between the Turkish & UK governments, the Britannic arrived unescorted by armed vessels.

Meanwhile, the fighting between the EOKA III resistance fighters and the Turkish army has spiked once again, as the Turks continue to try and instill the Turkish Cypriot regime on the island.

Please tell me this ship won’t return via the Island of Kea, and history won’t repeat itself!
 
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Top Stories This Week

Seaborn slams opponents' school voucher plans

Saturday, August 20th 2022

At a conference of educators in Milwaukee in the weeks before the start of the 2022-23 school year, President Sam Seaborn went after both Republican presidential nominee Alan Duke and independent candidate Andrew Long for their proposed nationwide school voucher programs. Characterizing it as a "way to stealthily defund public schools and destroy protections for educators," Seaborn said that both plans "want to turn the education of our next generation into a commodity like fast food" with a low-paid, non-unionized workforce.

"Some things, like the education of our next generation, or our national defense, should not be treated the same way we treat hamburgers or cell phones," Seaborn said. "That's why I will veto, with extreme prejudice, any bill that tries to cut federal funds to public schools or makes it harder for educators to organize and get the pay and benefits they deserve."

Pendleton says GOP control two branches of government: House and Senate
Thursday, August 18th 2022

Republican vice presidential nominee Lloyd Pendleton had a gaffe on Thursday at a speech in Columbus, Ohio, where he mistakenly asserted that the House of Representatives and the Senate constitute two branches of government. In his speech, Pendleton said that Republican control over "two branches of government" showed popular support for the party's conservative platform. The two chambers of Congress make up one branch, the legislative, of the three in the federal government alongside the executive and judiciary. A spokesman from the Duke campaign said that Pendleton had misspoken and was supposed to say "two chambers of one of the elected branches of government."

Hunter signs book deal ahead of leaving office
Friday, August 19th 2022

Vice President Jack Hunter signed a deal with the publishing company Simon & Schuster on Friday to write a memoir of his time as vice president after he leaves office. Hunter's chief of staff Evan Raybrook said that the book will deal with "the unprecedented situation [Hunter] found himself in" as the Republican vice president to a Democratic president and "shed light on the problems in Washington and the solutions the vice president offers for them." A representative from Simon & Schuster said that Hunter's contract includes a $1 million advance that Hunter will receive in February after he leaves office, and that the book would be released in 2024.

NATO Secretary-General accepts extension to term
Monday, August 15th, 2022

NATO Secretary-General Jonas Bakke has accepted a proposal from members of the military alliance to remain in office for an additional year following his four-year term's original expiration in October. With NATO still grappling with the conflict in Cyprus and the question of whether Turkey should remain in the alliance after its invasion and occupation of the remainder of the island, sources involved in the discussions relate that the decision was made to offer an extension to Bakke in lieu of giving the potentially explosive crisis to a new leader. Bakke has served nearly two full terms secretary-general since being selected in 2014 and had previously been expected to return to his native Norway to take up a position at the University of Oslo.

US issues sanctions on top Kundunese politicians
Sunday, August 14th, 2022

The United States issued sanctions on a half-dozen high-level politicians in Equatorial Kundu, forbidding American citizens, corporations and banks from conducting business with officials that the State Department has said have been credibly accused of embezzling international aid. The State Department issued sanctions against seven Kundunese officials, ranging from three members of President Tendo Mozembe's cabinet to two legislators. Mozembe has called the sanctions "neo-colonialist" and appealed to other Western nations to convince the administration to remove the targeted sanctions.
 
On Pendleton, to Quote Quantum Leap’s Sam Beckett, “Oh Boy...”

On Hunter, book deal maybe he goes into broadcasting? Maybe politics, maybe sports? Certainly can make money on the lecture circuit. Probably will sit on a number of boards, I expect scuttlebutt of a 2026 if Sam Wins but I don’t expect anything of it this year, later on, we’ll see.
 
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Tuesday August 23rd 2022

NBS Election HQ: Gubernatorial Polling


There are twenty two gubernatorial elections taking place, with eighteen incumbents facing re-election (ten Democrats and eight Republicans), in the four open elections, three are currently held by Republicans (Arizona, Michigan & North Carolina) and one by the Democrats (California).

Alabama
West (R) 55%
Stacey (D) 34%
Undecided 9%
Arizona
Fernandez (D) 47%
Foster (R) 42%
Undecided 11%
California
Cordova (D) 56%
Walsh (R) 35%
Undecided 9%
Colorado
McKey (D) 51%
Ronchetti (R) 38%
Undecided 11%
Connecticut
Beaushaw (D) 50%
Stewart (R) 39%
Undecided 11%
Georgia
Jefferson (R) 47%
Gardner (D) 44%
Cruiz (Lib) 2%
Undecided 7%
Hawaii
Burns (D) 58%
Allio (R) 27%
Helms (HI) 6%
Undecided 9%
Indiana
Stillman (R) 48%
Dawes (D) 40%
Williams (Lib) 2%
Undecided 10%
Iowa
Edwards (D) 49%
Nix (R) 41%
Undecided 10%
Louisiana
Haynes (R) 51%
Law (D) 39%
Undecided 10%
Massachusetts
Rust (D) 67%
Taylor (R) 23%
Undecided 10%
Michigan
Maguire (D) 49%
Podres (R) 42%
Undecided 9%
Montana
Fisher (R) 46%
Price (D) 43%
Page (Lib) 2%
Undecided 9%
Nevada
Creel (D) 51%
Cano (R) 42%
Undecided 7%
New Hampshire
Bartlet (D) 48%
Lacroix (R) 40%
Lambert (Lib) 5%
Undecided 7%
New Mexico
Diego (D) 52%
Tinnin (R) 39%
Undecided 9%
New York
El-Amin (D) 57%
Roberts (R) 35%
Undecided 8%
North Carolina
Huxley (R) 45%
Johnson (D) 43%
Bergman (G) 3%
Undecided 9%
Ohio
Bail (D) 47%
Scheider (R) 43%
Undecided 10%
South Dakota
Dean (R) 57%
Reynolds (D) 34%
Undecided 9%
Tennessee
Klein (D) 45%
Patterson (R) 45%
Undecided 10%
Wisconsin
Bock (D) 47%
Croft (R) 44%
Undecided 9%

Projected Changes
Dem Gain Arizona (Open seat)
Dem Gain Michigan (Open seat)
Dem Gain Ohio
Dem Gain Wisconsin
*Tennessee is currently projected as a tie*
 
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Wednesday August 25th, 2022

NBS Election HQ: Senate Polling


There are thirty three Senate elections this year, with no special elections. These are the seats last contested in 2016 when the Republicans took back control of the upper house. Eight Senators are not seeking re-election (seven Republicans and one Democrat). These are Senator's Garland (Alabama), Gibson (Idaho), Irving (Illinois), Wilkinson (Kansas), Thomas (Michigan), Roanoke (Oklahoma), Fulton (South Dakota) for the Republicans and Senator Tilman (California) for the Democrats.

Currently the Senate stands at: Republicans 57 seats, Democrats 43 seats. To reach 51 seats and take back control the Democrats must make eight net gains. If they make only seven net gains, then the next Vice-President as President of the Senate will have the casting vote.

Alabama
Doldier (R) 60%
Brogg (D) 33%
Undecided 7%
Alaska
Wheeler (R) 46%
Forrestal (D) 43%
Haskins (AI) 4%
Undecided 7%
Arizona
Rodrigues (D) 46%
Phillips (R) 45%
Undecided 9%
Arkansas
Carey (R) 56%
Freeman (D) 34%
Palmer (SR) 3%
Undecided 7%
California
Heilenann (D) 59%
Connor (R) 33%
Undecided 8%
Colorado
Aubry (D) 46%
Cabrera (R) 42%
Lucas (Lib) 5%
Undecided 7%
Connecticut
Casey (D) 58%
Lawton (R) 35%
Undecided 7%
Hawaii
Kuhio (D) 57%
Koper (R) 26%
Donaldson (HI) 9%
Undecided 8%
Idaho
Arkin (R) 55%
Johns (D) 22%
Sturgess (Independent Rep) 16%
Undecided 7%
Illinois
Pearce (D) 54%
Beresford (R) 34%
Purman (Lib) 5%
Undecided 7%
Indiana
Carluke (R) 50%
Mitchell (D) 37%
Charlton (Lib) 6%
Undecided 7%
Iowa
Ledford (D) 47%
Bradley (R) 46%
Whiston (Lib) 3%
Undecided 4%
Kansas
Judd (R) 55%
Gibbs (D) 37%
Undecided 8%
Kentucky
Schraeder (R) 46%
Mannix (D) 44%
Buckley (Lib) 3%
Undecided 7%
Louisiana
Morrison (R) 54%
Amoros (D) 39%
Undecided 7%
Maryland
Derrick (D) 56%
Wallace (R) 31%
Neal (G) 6%
Undecided 7%
Michigan
Rice (D) 51%
Preston (R) 42%
Undecided 7%
Missouri
Shallick (R) 54%
Edamas (D)33%
Miller (Lib) 5%
Undecided 8%
Nevada
Spencer (D) 48%
Acklan (R) 44%
Undecided 8%
New Hampshire
Wilkins (R) 46%
Lander (D) 45%
Knight (Lib) 3%
Undecided 6%
New York
Burrell (D) 59%
Francis (R) 33%
Undecided 8%
North Carolina
Layton (R) 47%
King (D) 44%
Sugrue (SR) 3%
Undecided 6%
North Dakota
Chantler (R) 59%
Marshall (D) 33%
Write-Ins 1%
Undecided 7%
Ohio
Norton-Stewart (R) 46%
Matthews (D) 43%
Tallard (G) 5%
Undecided 6%
Oklahoma
Martin (R) 53%
Hedges (D) 35%
Reid (Lib) 5%
Undecided 7%
Oregon
Greys (D) 59%
Baxter (R) 29%
Reeves (Soc) 5%
Undecided 7%
Pennsylvania
Clausen (D) 48%
Jackson (R) 43%
Gale (Prog) 2%
Undecided 7%
South Carolina
Maxwell (R) 53%
Timpson (D) 39%
Undecided 8%
South Dakota
Sutton (R) 63%
Kemp (D) 30%
Undecided 7%
Utah
Elderton (R) 52%
Burton (D) 31%
Browden (Lib) 10%
Undecided 7%
Vermont
Nerlinger (D) 62%
Ross (R) 22%
Bruce (Prog) 11%
Undecided 5%
Washington
Howard (D) 57%
Christie (R) 32%
Kinsey (G) 5%
Undecided 6%
Wisconsin
Clarke (R) 47%
Headley (D) 46%
Undecided 7%

Projected Changes
Dem Gain Colorado
Dem Gain Illinois (Open seat)
Dem Gain Iowa
Dem Gain Michigan (Open Seat)

Based on this polling the Republicans would hold onto the Senate, with the Democrats only making half of the required gains needed.
 
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Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Special Feature: Congressional Retirements (updated)

The last of the big battles between redistricted incumbent representatives took place yesterday, ending with the upset victory of Julia Dreyer (D-NY) over Nate Petrelli (D-NY), the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee for the upper Manhattan district the two were drawn into.

While four states (Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island) still have yet to vote in non-presidential primaries, none of the incumbents running for re-election in those states are facing serious challengers for their party's nomination.

With that in mind, we here at NBS feel confident to publish the (most likely final) update of our list of congressional retirements. As a reminder to our readers, this will be the first cycle where representatives are elected from maps drawn as a result of the 2020 Census, which will be in effect for the next ten years. As a result, many entries regarding retiring or defeated incumbent members of the House of Representatives may include information on new districts that will replace or partially replace the district they currently represent, which were drawn as a result of the 2010 Census.

Courtesy of the NBS politics team, here are each of the 57 members of Congress who are not seeking re-election, or who have lost their primaries.

----------------

Senate
AL: Alan Garland (R) (in office since 2010) — One Congress as chair of the Senate Budget Committee is all that Garland will get. The 74 year-old announced he's hanging up his spurs rather than run again, a decision undoubtedly helped along from undergoing another operation last May to remove melanoma from his skin.

CA: Gabe Tillman (D) (in office since 2018) — President Seaborn's replacement in the Senate, "the Democrat's Democrat" is gracefully bowing out rather than stand in the way of term-limited governor Abbie Heilemann (D)'s senatorial ambitions. Heilemann easily won the Democratic nomination and thus will be the next senator from California, while Tillman has expressed an interest in returning to political commentary.

ID: Clark Gibson (R) (in office since 1981) — Gibson is the head of the powerful Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, but he's perhaps better known in political junkie circles for his grievance over how the Senate determines seniority. The second-most senior senator will retire after 40 years in the Senate, and almost certainly succeeded by Governor David Arkin (R).

IL: Jasper Irving (R) (in office since 2017) — The conservative-cum-moderate senator from Illinois passed up a tough re-election fight to instead run for the presidency. He ended up coming in second to Alan Duke, and Republicans have all but announced that they have given up on holding this seat without him.

KS: Sam Wilkinson (R) (in office since 1981) — President pro tempore and chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee is a pretty good place to end a distinguished Senate career and that’s where Wilkinson finds himself. The president pro tem is 85 years old, and is retiring rather than seeking an eighth term in office.

MI: Randall Thomas (R) (in office since 1999) — Thomas has spent his congressional career frustrating Democrats that they have been unable to take his seat, despite Michigan consistently leaning Democratic. Michigan will miss his leadership of the Senate Finance Committee, even if voters in the state picks someone outside his party to succeed him.

OK: Robert Roanoke (R) (in office since 1987) — After six terms being a good friend to the beef industry, Pentagon and voters in his state, Robert Roanoke is retiring. The chair of the Senate Indigenous Affairs Committee plans to return home to his ranch while former governor Lawrence Martin (R) is set to be the state’s next senator.

SD: Robin Fulton (R) (in office since 2003) — Fulton's announcement that he had been diagnosed with stage II pancreatic cancer led to an outpouring of support from the entire Senate and from voters in his home state. It is very unlikely that he will live long enough to see the end of his successor's term in 2029.

House of Representatives
AL-01: Jim Doldier (R) (in office since 2011) — Garland's retirement will cause at least one shake-up in Alabama's House delegation, with Doldier giving up his Mobile-based seat to try for the Senate. Like with the open Senate seat, the winner of the Republican primary (in this case, state representative Matt Averhoff) will be the new incumbent come January.

AZ-08: Troy Foster (R) (in office since 2013) — With term-limited governor Scott Phillips (R) is running neck and neck with Antonio Rodrigues (D) for the state's Senate seat, Foster gave up his safe seat to try to become Arizona's next governor.

CA-10: Skip Sullivan (R) (in office since 2021) — Redistricting moved Sullivan into the 13th district alongside Will Durham (R). The freshman (perhaps wisely) decided not to take on a big fish in the increasingly small pond of California Republicans and is heading back to local politics.

CA-22: Kyle Sebastian (R) (in office since 2019) — Sebastian's congressional career was cut short by his thumping in a primary against fellow incumbent Winchester Collins (R) after he was redistricted into the 20th district. The new 22nd will almost certainly be represented by Trent Gorman (D), the current representative of the Golden State's 21st district.

CA-30: Randy Celeste (G) (in office since 2011) — Celeste, who switched parties to the Greens in 2021, chose to try to become the party's presidential nominee rather than try to retain his seat under his new affiliation. He lost at the convention, and the district that Celeste would represent under the new maps (the new 32nd district) will probably go to Democratic nominee T.J. Conover by a 2:1 margin over his opponents.

CA-35: Landon Carmen (D) (in office since 2003) — The old general is ending his political career after two decades, and will make room for a new Democratic leader on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee. Pushing through legislation to give aid to veterans suffering symptoms related to burn pit exposure was a fitting capstone to a long and distinguished public career.

CA-47: Alvin Coates (D) (in office since 2013) — Coates is yet another casualty of California's redistricting. He and Megan McKeena (current representative for the 40th district) were redistricted into the new 42nd district and McKeena won a tough primary to win the nomination for the dark blue seat.

CA-49: Alton Moore (R) (in office since 1999) — Moore opted to try a very long-shot run for president rather than face a redistricting and likely a tough re-election fight. To no one’s surprise, he got almost no support and dropped out very quickly. Democrats are very motivated to take this seat, as Moore was one of the first sitting Republican elected officials to endorse Alan Duke.

CA-52: Peter Herger (R) (in office since 1985) — The Chair of the House Small Business Committee is retiring, much to the relief of C-SPAN camera operators, one of whom his droning famously put to sleep during a long session in 2008. Redistricting reportedly played a factor in accelerating the 77 year-old's plans for retirement, since he would have had to run in the new, very Democratic 50th district.

FL-05: Len Segal (D) (in office since 2001) — Republicans in Florida’s legislature managed to crack Segal's Jacksonville district and so the former FBI agent is handing in his metaphorical gun and badge. The new 5th will almost certainly be represented by current 4th district representative Francis Kilner (R) in January.

FL-20: Lewis Grant (D) (in office since 2019) — Grant lost a very close primary last night to fellow incumbent Selina Draper (D) after the two were put into the new 22nd district. The dean of Florida's delegation, Jeff Johnson (D), will take over the new 20th.

GA-11: Dominic Rudig (R) (in office since 1995) — Rudig is packing it in after 14 terms after drawing yet another right-wing primary opponent whose sole point of contention was Rudig's pro-choice stance.

HI-02: Evelyn Bindo (D) (in office since 2005) — The "jokester of the House" is taking the opportunity of her district getting new boundaries to retire. Bindo is 83 and had a big impact on making sure her protege Michelle Takei won this deep-blue seat’s Democratic primary.

IL-11: Joyce Pearce (D) (in office since 2013) — Pearce is trying to make the move up to the Senate to replace Jasper Irving (R) (see above). Illinois Democrats turned her safe Democratic district into one that only leans Democratic in the state's redistricting, so Democratic nominee Jim Hinojosa will have to fight harder than Pearce did to hold this seat.

IL-12: James Newhouse (D) (in office since 1991) — Redistricting has turned the 12th from one that only leans Republican to one that's solidly Republican. That means that Newhouse is calling it quits after two decades in Congress and handing his seat over to the likely GOP nominee, 15th district representative Marvin Troughton.

IL-15: Ray Riggleman (R) (in office since 2001) — The new district lines in Illinois moved 13th district representative Bill Delmon into the 15th. Since Delmon is one of the best House Republicans (outside of party leadership) at bringing in donor cash, it's no wonder Riggleman was persuaded to stand aside to prevent a bruising primary in this deep-red district.

IL-17: Gene Kramer (D) (in office since 1987) — It will be hard for Democrats to match Kramer's success in downstate Illinois. Kramer, who heads Democrats on the House Education and Workforce Committee, seems to be calling it after gutting out two tough re-election in 2018 and 2020. The district's new configuration has made it a swing seat.

IA-03: Kevin Nix (R) (in office since 2011) — Iowa Republicans have been itching to unseat Governor James Edwards (D) for four years, and Nix is the strongest candidate so far willing to try and unseat him.

KS-04: Curt Judd (R) (in office since 2013) — Judd gave up his seat to succeed Sam Wilkinson (R) in the Senate (see above). State representative Kirk Brewer (R) will definitely hold down this very Republican district.

MI-02: Jim Norton (R) (in office since 1993) — Norton’s time as the dean of Michigan's delegation will end in January after he lost his attempt for a 16th term after being redistricted. Freshman Peter Mouw (R) outflanked him from the right and won the GOP primary, which is tantamount to election in this Republican district.

MI-11: Gerald Somerfield (R) (in office since 2003) — Two decades will have to do it for Somerfield, who announced his retirement after his district was redistricted both to become a Democratic one and include current 9th district representative Andrew Travis (D). Travis is all set to hold onto this seat at least until the next bout of redistricting.

MN-02: Leif Erikson (R) (in office since 1987) — Perhaps the closest we'll ever get in Congress to a real-life viking from Minnesota, Erikson hasn't had a serious contest in decades. But his age is catching up with him: his beard is now gray, and he's had open-heart surgery twice in the past five years. This district could go either way next year without him, and would be a crucial seat that Democrats will need to take to regain the House.

MN-07: Thom Grunder (D) (in office since 1973) — Fifty years in Congress will be enough for the Dean of the House and ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee. Republicans have long been targeting his district (currently it is the most Republican seat held by a Democrat), and it's as good as theirs without Grunder to compete against. When Grunder goes, the House will lose its last member to take office in the 1970s.

MO-08: Allan Blant (R) (in office since 1996) — The dean of Missouri's congressional delegation has decided to retire and let someone else represent southeastern Missouri. The person who will replace him will be state representative Nick Brown, who won the GOP primary, which is tantamount to election in a district that Henry Shallick won by 30 percent four years ago.

MT-AL: Alan Price (D) (in office since 2011) — Big Sky Country is getting a second congressional district again, three decades after losing it after the 1990 Census. The district boundaries were unkind to Price, who was drawn into the very Republican second district that makes up the central and eastern parts of the state instead of the Missoula-based first district. Instead, Price is running to unseat Monty Fisher (R) as governor.

NV-02: Hank Wallace (R) (in office since 1981) — Wallace is the most senior Republican in the House and the only one remaining to have taken office before Ronald Reagan's inauguration. Nothing better exemplifies Wallace's longevity than the fact that he was the last person to represent Nevada's at-large district before it was abolished in 1983, and now the state has four congressional districts.

NV-03: Matt Acklan (R) (in office since 2019) — With Acklan abandoning his seat to take on Matthew Spencer (D) for the state's Senate seat, the race for the 3rd's representative has turned into a slugging contest that mirrors the Senate race. This seat will be a good barometer of how successful the RNC is at patching up the divide between Duke and Long voters.

NJ-11: Jack Fowler (R) (in office since 2009) — The Great White Hope of the New Jersey GOP saw the way the wind was blowing after his district was made into one that was five points more Democratic than the nation and decided to bail. Without him, the GOP has essentially given up on the seat and former federal prosecutor Becca Hedberg (D) will almost certainly take over for Fowler next year.

NY-12: Nate Petrelli (D) (in office since 2007) — It might be a bit ironic that the ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee lost perhaps the most brutal and expensive House primary this cycle yesterday. People will be studying how Julia Dreyer (D) came out on top, despite Petrelli's higher national profile and edge in fundraising for years. While Dreyer will remain in the House, Petrelli's name is already being whispered for various positions in a second Seaborn administration.

NY-19: Del Roberts (R) (in office since 2011) — Roberts has stepped up to try to unseat Governor Hakeem El-Amin. It's a long shot, and Roberts' scant record of accomplishments in Congress is unlikely to persuade blue-state voters to take a chance on him.

NY-23: Frank Whitley (R) (in office since 2003) — With his position as chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and deal-making credentials, Whitley could represent his district until he dies. But he's honoring his pledge to make his tenth term his last. His decision also avoided a potentially nasty primary with fellow Rep. Jim Cutter (R), who was moved into the 23rd as a result of redistricting.

NC-09: David Epps (R) (in office since 2009) — North Carolina's new 13th district managed to pack three Republican congressman into one district: Epps, John M. Porter and current representative Tommy Ray Mitchell. Epps has already announced that he will resign from Congress to accept teaching position at Davidson College effective September 1st. The new 9th district encompasses all of Charlotte, which means 12th district incumbent Aaron Bonds (D) will have no problem holding onto his new seat.

OH-07: Bob Paccioretti (R) (in office since 2020) — To little surprise, Paccioretti lost his attempt to hold onto the 7th after being grouped into the same district as current 16th district representative Joseph Steele (R). Several watchdog groups have raised questions about the Steele campaign's financial dealings, but that doesn't seem like it will negatively affect Steele's likely victory in November.

OH-09: Josie Bail (D) (in office since 2003) — The Democratic Caucus Chair is trying to become the Buckeye State's seventh governor to have served non-consecutive terms. The "Snake by the Lake" is considered one of the ugliest gerrymanders in the nation, and Bail's successor will get a nicer, much more Republican-friendly, district map to hang in their office.

OH-13: Roger Matthews (D) (in office since 2011) — Matthews was the biggest congressional victim of Ohio losing a House seat as a result of the Census. Ohio Republicans took the opportunity to obliterate his swing seat base and plop him instead in the deep red 6th district. Rather than fight a losing battle, Matthews instead is taking on Ruth Norton-Stewart in her Senate race.

PA-03: Arthur Cornforth (D) (in office since 1995) — "Comrade Arthur" is retiring ahead of his 80th birthday, and not a moment to soon. He was already expected to be dumped as the leading Democrat on the House Administration Committee over his statements expressing admiration for Lenin, Trotsky and Fidel Castro, and had several challengers announce primary bids when he decided to say do svidaniya. The majority-black district, one of the most Democratic in the nation, will be represented by Philadelphia city councilor Art Chennault in January.

PA-10: Chris Franklin (R) (in office since 1987) — A self-described "Rockefeller Republican", Franklin is a member of a dying breed of Republican politician that was briefly reinvigorated by Arnold Vinick in 2006. His retirement has put this seat into play, although the GOP still holds a slight edge.

PA-12: Kevin Huxley (R) (in office since 2019) — Redistricting put Huxley into the 9th district alongside fellow sophomore Ben Sizemore (R), and Sizemore came out on top in the subsequent GOP primary. The new 12th will be moved to cover most of Pittsburgh, and will most likely be won by Samantha Kennedy (D) whose 18th district covering largely the same area was eliminated as a result of the Census.

SC-06: Grant Spencer (D) (in office since 2001) — Spencer's luck finally ran out this June, when he lost a primary to former city councilor Mike Dixon. It didn't help Spencer that he accumulated nearly a half-dozen marriages since he took office in 2001 (not including the four marriages he had ended before then), and his constituents seemed to finally tire of the constant drama involving his messy finances and personal life.

SD-AL: Tony Sutton (R) (in office since 2020) — Sutton gave up his House seat to succeed Robin Fulton (R) (see above) in the Senate. He will not have to worry about either the Senate race now that he has won the GOP nomination, nor his seat, as the Democrats couldn't get anyone to stand as a sacrificial lamb against state senator Jeff Wanner (R). Wanner still has to dispatch a Libertarian candidate, but for all intents and purposes, the race is already over.

TN-04: Walter Peterson (R) (in office since 2011) — Terrance Klein (D) is undoubtedly the most vulnerable incumbent governor up for re-election in this election cycle. The Volunteer State is deeply Republican and Peterson is hoping that the state's natural partisan lean will overcome Klein's solid approval ratings.

TN-05: Ted Helton (D) (in office since 2019) — Helton is taking an early out after Tennessee Republicans successfully pushed through new congressional maps that cracked Nashville into two Republican districts. With only one solidly Democratic district left in the state (the 9th district, which covers Memphis), a far cry from the Tennessee Democrats' previous dominance of the state delegation as late as the 1980s.

TX-04: John Hancock (R) (in office since 1997) — The congressman who shares his name with the famous Founding Father, Hancock is hanging up his spurs after a quarter-century in Congress. Texas' redistricting has stretched this district from northeastern Texas into the Dallas suburbs, but it's still going to be filled by a Republican when Hancock departs.

TX-07: Ralph Ellis (R) (in office since 2011) — Ellis' seat is one of the two that Texas Republicans sacrificed in the state's redistricting to shore up other GOP seats. The new seventh is very Democratic, nothing like the swing seat that Ellis is leaving behind.

TX-29: Tim Fields (D) (in office since 1991) — Fields could have been either Speaker of the House or Governor of Texas, but the superior caucus campaign of Mark Sellner and a bribery scandal derailed his hopes of career advancement. His successor will be a Democrat and almost certainly a Hispanic one at that.

TX-32: Lewis Simpson (R) (in office since 2021) — Simpson will only get the one term in Congress, as the new 32nd is now very Democratic. It's also majority-minority, which likely mollifies some Texas Democrats who were concerned about state Republicans' attempts to remove the possibility of any more seats turning blue or purple as Texas continues its demographic shift.

WV-03: Charles Hacker (R) (in office since 1989) — The third district is going to be eliminated after this year, and Hacker is leaving with it. The dean of West Virginia's congressional delegation, Hacker is one of four current representatives who switched parties while in office (in his case, to the GOP after being elected as a Democrat).

WI-03: Drake Headley (D) (in office since 2001) — The powerful ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee is giving up his seat to challenge Senator James Clarke (R). Without the popular incumbent, the GOP has the best shot in years of taking this seat, and both parties have already committed tremendous resources to organizing in the district.

HONORABLE MENTION
DC-AL: Martha Vickers (D) (in office since 1991)
— The grand lady of DC politics was diagnosed with Alzheimer's last year and will end her political career after spending four decades in elected office. The District of Columbia is so Democratic that Republicans often don't bother running candidates here, and the next non-voting delegate for the nation's capital will be the Democratic nominee, former mayor Chuck Mitchell.
 
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Friday August 26th, 2022

Congresswomen King "Arm children so that they’ll stop school shootings" and praises Nazi Germany book burning's

Congresswomen Patty King (Ga-14), said during a campaign rally on Thursday that elementary schoolchildren should be armed so that they can fight school shooters. The former teacher is running for a second term in the deeply conservative Georgia 14th district, said “Arm our children!, Have them learn how to protect themselves. That’s what’s gonna stop shooters. That’s what’s gonna stop threats. Schools need to teach children how to shoot and use guns".

She added "The Communists that control the internet tell your children that guns are bad, that they are evil, I want them to be able to defend themselves against real threats and kick some ass out there and intervene if a school shooter comes, I don’t want them to go to school defenseless".

King has long believed that teachers should carry concealed weapons. She also said she supported Nazi Germany (which she called the "German Government") for "burning books", "In the 1930's when the German Government saw the threat of some books on German youth, they burned them, well our schools need to be burning the filth that many of our schools have in their Libraries and which they force our children to read. It’s our duty, in fact, to purge our schools of such filth."

King was vetted by the Alan Duke campaign for Vice-President also she was later removed from the process after links to neo-nazi groups where found, and comments and pictures praising Hitler and the Nazis.

King campaigning on Thursday
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(Photo by Sidney Powell)
 
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On the above story before anyone says the post above this is nuts, both the armed children and burning books stories are actually based on real remarks by a couple of different Republican candidates/Republican commentators in OTL in the last few weeks.
 
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NBS CAMPAIGN 2022 HEADER.png


Seaborn continues to hold large lead in presidential polls

Friday, August 26, 2022

President Sam Seaborn continues to hold a large lead over his opponents in the latest NBS/YouGov poll taken in the presidential race.

Seaborn is currently the preferred candidate of 43 percent of likely voters, far outpacing his main opponents, Republican nominee Alan Duke (26 percent) and independent Andrew Long (19 percent).

Our forecasts show little change from the previous installment of NBS' projected Electoral College map. Three very Republicans states (Idaho, Utah and West Virginia) have drifted back to the Republican column after enough Republican and Republican-leaning respondents voiced support for Long that they were categorized as toss-ups. This has boosted Duke's projected electoral vote total to at least 17, a far cry from Seaborn, who is projected to take at least 334 and easily secure a second term. Long remains projected to win in his home state of Texas, which would give him a total of 40 electoral votes and make him the first third-party candidate in over five decades to win a state.

Presidential Election Polling
Seaborn (D): 43% (+1)
Duke (R): 26% (-1)
Long (I): 19% (-1)
Buckner: 3% (±0)
Undecided: 9% (+1)

States to Watch
Arizona
Seaborn (D): 37% (+1)
Duke (R): 30% (+1)
Long (I): 19% (-1)
Buckner (G): 4% (-1)
Undecided: 10% (±0)


Florida
Seaborn (D): 43% (±0)
Duke (R): 30% (+2)
Long (I): 16% (-1)
Buckner (G): 2% (-1)
Undecided: 9% (±0)


Ohio
Seaborn (D): 39% (+2)
Duke (R): 29% (±0)
Long (I): 20% (-1)
Buckner (G): 3% (-1)
Undecided: 9% (±0)


Pennsylvania
Seaborn (D): 45% (+1)
Duke (R): 27% (+1)
Long (I): 17% (-1)
Buckner (G): 2% (-1)
Undecided: 9% (±0)


Texas
Long (I): 38% (-2)
Duke (R): 26% (+1)
Seaborn (D): 25% (+2)
Buckner (G): 2% (-1)
Undecided: 9% (±0)


Wisconsin
Seaborn (D): 39% (+2)
Duke (R): 25% (+1)
Long (I): 20% (-1)
Buckner (G): 6% (-2)
Undecided: 10% (±0)


Projected Electoral Map
genusmap.php


Seaborn (D): 334 (±0) electoral votes
Long (I): 40 (±0) electoral votes
Duke (R): 17 (+14) electoral votes
Toss-up: 147 (-14) electoral votes


Changes
Idaho (4 EV): Toss-Up to Duke
Utah (6 EV): Toss-Up
to Duke
West Virginia (4 EV): Toss-Up
to Duke
 
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While it looks good for Seaborn, it is not looking like a mandate. He is winning a landslide because the Republican vote is split. Like Woodrow Wilson in 1912. Seaborn got 47% of the popular vote in 2018. Now he is only polling at 43%. He is going backwards
 
While it looks good for Seaborn, it is not looking like a mandate. He is winning a landslide because the Republican vote is split. Like Woodrow Wilson in 1912. Seaborn got 47% of the popular vote in 2018. Now he is only polling at 43%. He is going backwards
This is what I’ve been suspecting - whilst I still think that Seaborn will win a second term I really do feel it’ll be closer than the numbers currently suggest. Stronger Long performances in states that normally just lean blue could be an issue here as those who normally vote Democrat/Republican more out of aversion to the other party are galvanised by a credible 3rd choice. If enough voters take that approach and some of the larger swing states that could be an issue.

Would be interesting to see if the polling is painting an accurate picture as well - Not to get off topic but I’m wondering if the data could be over reporting the Democratic share in the same manner to the challenges in IRL 2016 USA and 2015 UK elections. I do realise those are both slightly extreme examples as the data was off enough to cause an upset on the result in both those cases, but still wondering if it could be a factor. I certainly can’t help but think that Duke will do better then suspected in some of the Republican strongholds, and that a 1964-sequel wipeout is unlikely. If elections in the UK & USA IRL have taught us anything in the last few years, it’s that support for right wing parties is often underrepresented in polling.

Nightmare scenario would be Duke picking up 8+ traditionally Republican states, Long doing well enough to prevent Seaborn reaching 270 in the electoral college and the vote going to a House/Senate that are under Republican control. A Republican controlled legislature voting in Duke would be bad enough, but equally bad would be a legislative body gridlocked and unable to nominate a President - that way lies chaos.
 

mspence

Banned
It seems like Long should be polling higher with Republicans. It still seems very much a Vinick/Walken party in this TL in spite of Duke being the nominee.
 
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