AHC: World War II in a Central Powers victory scenario.

[Riain]

The irony is France in such a scenario may inadvertently become a Green variant of Fascist. Heavy emphasis on recycling and reclamation technologies, synthetics, biotech, and even taking trash from other nations for cheap to get more resources

Like how Japan reprocesses nuclear fuel despite it being much cheaper to buy new fuel. They do it because they don't have uranium if their own, so don't want to be caught wrong footed if their supply is cut off.

 

[Riain]

Germany potentially exhausted politically after ww1 and more than a decade of deal with insurgencies and snuffing fires out has a massive movement to bring their troops home, and suddenly Germany is seen as weak and or decaying master and you get a gambler or two push the world order Germany set up and are not snuffed out quick enough they cause more conflict and bring in more people could result in a potential world war.

Why would Germany be fighting insurgency in eastern Europe with its own troops? Already in ww1 they made an unsuccessful attempt to raise a Polish national Army and the plan was for Germany to indirectly rule these clients/puppets who would have their iwn representatives and the like. This is in stark contrast to heavy handed direct Russian rule and it would mean any opposition would be to the local government and be combatted by then.

 

[boredviewer1234]

Why would Germany be fighting insurgency in eastern Europe with its own troops? Already in ww1 they made an unsuccessful attempt to raise a Polish national Army and the plan was for Germany to indirectly rule these clients/puppets who would have their iwn representatives and the like. This is in stark contrast to heavy handed direct Russian rule and it would mean any opposition would be to the local government and be combatted by then.

Largely both show support and commitment to their puppets. They obviously would not be the only force doing but with their proxies.

 

[DrakonFin]

I can maybe see a large-scale conflict breaking out a couple decades or so after ATL WW1 assuming an earlier CP victory where Russian territorial losses are limited to the Baltics, Finland, and Poland.

There is IMO no reason to assume that an early CP victory (that is before late 1917) would lead to Russia losing Finland, unless the events of the early war itself on the Russo-German front were quite different from the OTL. This might need to include an actual German invasion of the Finnish mainland.

 

[lukedalton]

Sure, but none of this happens in a vacuum. Right next door will be the Soviet Union showing Germanys clients/puppets the alternative of dekulakisation, gulgags, deportation, great purges, artificial famines which even without the Ukrainian holodomor will kill millions of people and ruin millions more.

Total war has not yet become a taboo, so the countries in Mitteleuropa will know they have a choice between it and the Soviet Union if Germany loses a total war. I can't believe they'll be super keen on the Soviet option.

Like OTL? Wary of the Soviet Union? Sure but much more probably due to nationalistic fear than any of what you say as frankly as it will not really know...not considering that Stalin getting in charge is not a given so all the nastyness of OTL is not bound to happen
Regarding Italy paying huge sum for reparation, sorry not happening as there is no money to give point, the Central POwers can come occupy the nation and try to extract them but otherwise sorry there is no dime to give so better deal with that or prepare to some further engament

 

[boredviewer1234]

Like OTL? Wary of the Soviet Union? Sure but much more probably due to nationalistic fear than any of what you say as frankly as it will not really know...not considering that Stalin getting in charge is not a given so all the nastyness of OTL is not bound to happen
Regarding Italy paying huge sum for reparation, sorry not happening as there is no money to give point, the Central POwers can come occupy the nation and try to extract them but otherwise sorry there is no dime to give so better deal with that or prepare to some further engament

True the USSR is kind of toothless in this world as well, given it's not ''expanded'' since it came into being no Hungary soviet to scare Europe or being able to secure any bit of Poland, Ukraine, Baltics, Caucasus ect. I can see plenty of nations making the gamble the red won't or rather can't eat them if they they are a minute out of lockstep with Germany.

Though on the topic of Italy, would they instead of reparation's be willing to give Austria traitors instead? They did help create the e Czechoslovak Italian Legion and Romanian Legion and that is something I can very much see a Vienna afraid of secessionist movements following the chaos and instability prefer to have it's traitor POWS hunted down than focus on reparation's.

That said yes I do agree Italy would likely get a much softer peace than the central powers would want, Austria by the end was breaking down indeed it's army arugbbaly shattered in it's first year and had to rebuilt over the war, they've had millions of men crippled and killed and the empire is starving and by the end Italy was breaking through.

I can very much see the CP rather than face the prospect of months if not years (France might not want to fight Germany at this stage but they would do a lot to make them bleed and their is no way in hell France would let their country be used as a battle field for the CP without restarting the war) breaking down the defenses blink and give relatively soft terms.

Afterall I think both sides of that table know the terms have to be good enough they can return to their homelands without getting lynched and or potential revolution that Italy would face and again would restart the war.

 

[Riain]

I'm interested in the whole insurgency angle now.

Are there any examples of insurgency in developed countries between the world wars? Insurgency was quite common after ww2 in developing countries, but in the developed world I think it was civil war or nothing.

 

[boredviewer1234]

I'm interested in the whole insurgency angle now.

Are there any examples of insurgency in developed countries between the world wars? Insurgency was quite common after ww2 in developing countries, but in the developed world I think it was civil war or nothing.

Let's see their was pretty much constant low scale insurgencies between Czechoslovakia and it's neighbors Poland and Hungary with state support in a shadow war, which makes perfect sense as Hungary never really forgave them for the war and the attempt to set up a slavic corridor and regarded them as with both irredentism and anxiety.

Greece and Italy also had to deal with various insurgencies like the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization.

Though the most famous insurgency in this period would be the IRA's campaign against the British.


Edit Germany also had to deal with the ''Silesian Uprisings'' with was a series of conflicts between Polish and German paramilitary forces over control of the area.

 

[Mikestone8]

Bolshevik Russia, despite not having the Ukraine and the Caucasus, according to what I have researched, still has considerable resources to industrialize the country

What else would it have?

Keep in mind that as of Spring 1919 the Whites under Kolchak held Siberia and iirc a slice of European Russia as far as Kazan. OTL the Bolsheviks conquered this but TTL the Germans are at the gates of Petrograd and within striking distance of Moscow so they could do a military demonstration and order them to desist. The same held for a big chunk north of the Caucasus. Is it likely that Germany would just sit back and allow the Reds to re-unify Russia?

 

[boredviewer1234]

hat else would it have?

Keep in mind that as of Spring 1919 the Whites under Kolchak held Siberia and iirc a slice of European Russia as far as Kazan. OTL the Bolsheviks conquered tis but TTL the Germans are at he gates of Petrograd and within striking distance of Moscow so they could d a military demonstration and order them to desist. The same held for a big chunk north of the Caucasus. Is it likely hat Germany would just sit bac ad allow the Reds to re-unify Russia?

That's a decent question, I suppose I could see the Germans do anything to make sure the Entente don't set up their own pro Russian state but this is the age of nationalism and if they could would once the threat is gone I suspect they would start carving up more puppet states, maybe something with the Volga germans controlling it.

 

[Maponus]

I'm interested in the whole insurgency angle now.

Are there any examples of insurgency in developed countries between the world wars? Insurgency was quite common after ww2 in developing countries, but in the developed world I think it was civil war or nothing.

Insurgency might be too strong a word, but Poland had pretty serious trouble with the Ukrainian terrorism of the OUN in Volhynia and Galicia, with methods ranging from sabotage to assassination, resulting in a violent crackdown in 1930 - and even with its greatly reduced borders, Weimar Germany still had to contend with three armed Polish uprisings in Silesia.

I think its up in the air whether permanent German backing saves the Hetmanate or not, certainly they collapsed almost immediately without German support, but given the German armies rather, shall we say heavy-handed, methods of anti-Partisan warfare its possible the Ukrainian population will only become more hostile to the German backed conservative regime the longer things drag on. Over time its easy to imagine that the Ukrainian Socialists (who were the majority of Ukrainian Nationalism during and after the Revolution) will begin to forget their erstwhile differences with the Russian Communists and begin to align with them, after all many former Ukrainian People's Republic leaders defected to the USSR OTL as well.

 

[CHKeeley]

Is it likely that Germany would just sit back and allow the Reds to re-unify Russia?

Given that almost all of the white armies were overtly hostile to the Germans and pro-Entente and the Bolsheviks were the only party to sit down at the peace table (at great domestic cost), then maybe.

 

[AustrianFanboy]

Iq

Well, certainly from various discussions and threads I've read on this site, it seems that a WWII with reversed roles is not possible, however, I would like to explore and discuss some alternatives. First, I proceed to give a context to have a base from which to start: first of all, the victory of the Central Powers would be the standard, there is no intervention of the United States, Brest-Livostk happens as in OTL and the Germans break the trenches allies in France. Germany would get her colonies back and gain some extras in exchange for returning to the status quo ante bellum in Western Europe (except for Luxembourg and some border adjustments in the Vosges) and you will have her gains recognized in Eastern Europe.

The Bolsheviks will continue to win the RCW, mainly due to the disorganization of the White forces as a leadership, finishing a little earlier. France, for its part, would manage to keep a large part of its territory (including Briey-Longwy) but the industrial devastation and human loss would have a profound impact on the French conscience, the Third Republic would remain, but much more unstable and dependent on international credit. , making its economy unstable to any crack abroad. The United Kingdom would see its possessions intact, but the illusion that the war was fought for nothing caused a wave of instability, causing the fall of multiple governments, added to the crises in Ireland, India and South Africa; being the British priority to guarantee its status as a power and keep the Empire stable. Germany for its part now has its long-awaited place in the sun, but as Uncle Ben said "with great power comes great responsibility." So Germany now found itself running a sizeable colonial empire and had new stooges in Eastern Europe, each one with its basic needs, this added to the state of the German economy, with large internal debts, a hungry population (at least until the supply stabilized) and a devalued currency; They cause Germany to resort to US credits (like France, the UK and others involved in the Great War) making its economy vulnerable and running the risk of exceeding its limits.

Bolshevik Russia, despite not having the Ukraine and the Caucasus, according to what I have researched, still has considerable resources to industrialize the country, although in a much slower way than OTL, in terms of its leadership, I see Stalin as the plausible option, although I have yet to read about the existing power struggles within the USSR. Austria-Hungary, for its part, managed to survive, but the political reforms have not yet eased the discrepancies and tensions that exist within the different ethnic groups of the Empire. Italy for its part, would not lose territory, but would be forced to pay large war reparations to the Central Powers, added to the economic crisis, the Kingdom of Italy would fall into political polarization. However, I do not see that it brings fascism (Unless not as in OTL) although it does revanchist movements that can end in a militaristic dictatorship. The Ottomans reached an agreement with the British, defeating the Arab revolt and taking advantage of the oil boom, I don't have much to say about OE, apart from the fact that little by little it would distance itself from Germany due to differences with respect to the Caucasus. Japan, for its part, would retain its gains from Germany, however, the consolidation of the Zhili Camarilla brought with it new risks to Japanese interests in the region (there was no Beijing Coup, so Zhili manages to win the Second Zhili-Fengtian war.

Now, and going to the point of this thread, with the Great Depression running its course and with some events in between, such as a breakdown of German hegemony, the reconstitution of France, the Soviet resurgence, tensions in Asia and the Balkans Could a regional conflict give way to new conflicts that end a kind of WWII? I explain to myself that I know the point is not understood, let's suppose that pro-Russian movements begin to emerge in Ukraine, Crimea and Belarus (Taking into account the demographics of the region and the tensions that may arise between the different ethnic groups, for example, in the Ukrainian SSR there were 22% Russians, although a minority could cause problems) that begin to cause instability in their Eastern puppets, added to complications in Austria Hungary and internal political polarization, makes the perception in different revanchist nations is that the German bloc is breaking up, so there could be a kind of Realpolitik between Italy, Russia and some Balkan nations, organized for a common purpose. Nations like France or the UK remain neutral (at least momentarily, if Germany is losing the war, they would take the opportunity to get their piece of the cake) so they could see a kind of economic boom due to selling consumer goods to both sides. However, I know this is at least implausible, but I'd like to see some alternatives.

In any case of German victory Briey-Longwy Is going to be German; there is no way the Germans are giving up on that, not for any amount of colonies anywhere in the world. That said France, without iron, with their industries destroyed, no reparations and even worse manpower losses than OTL , not to mention the total loss of their strategic depth Is Simply screwed as a great Power.
Regarding the Soviet Union, It Is not Just about resources, but strategic depth as well: with an enforced B-L their main cities and industries are weeks away from the borders as well, and if the same annihilation battles of OTL early Barbarossa happen so much deeper into soviet territory...

 

[M79]

Another consideration is that under certain scenarios a Central Powers victory in World War I might mean there would be no World War II.

A Brest-Litovsk as in OTL means your PoD is likely late 1917 or sometime in 1918. Going off the Septemberprogramm, France is not very likely to get off light at all. I figure they make a puppet of Belgium with a possible split of the country into Flanders and Wallonia, the latter getting the former French departments of Nord and Pais-de-Calais. Germany wanted the western Vosges and the Muerthe-er-Moselle department, for border simplicity I figure they take most or all territory east of the Meuse for France, likely for Belgium as well. Belfort is likely annexed, and perhaps a puppet Burgundy is carved out of Juna, Doubs, and Saone. Germany annexes Luxembourg and enlarges it in the process. See attached map.

France thus becomes economically dependent on Germany and is in no position to launch a future conflict, it becomes a secondary power firmly in German orbit but with a powerful navy and some colonies. If done right, there might even be goodwill between the countries in a generation or two.

If Italy stayed within the Central Powers it might get Savoy back along with Alpes Maritimes (Var and Basses Alpes would be a stretch).

 

[AustrianFanboy]

Another consideration is that under certain scenarios a Central Powers victory in World War I might mean there would be no World War II.

A Brest-Litovsk as in OTL means your PoD is likely late 1917 or sometime in 1918. Going off the Septemberprogramm, France is not very likely to get off light at all. I figure they make a puppet of Belgium with a possible split of the country into Flanders and Wallonia, the latter getting the former French departments of Nord and Pais-de-Calais. Germany wanted the western Vosges and the Muerthe-er-Moselle department, for border simplicity I figure they take most or all territory east of the Meuse for France, likely for Belgium as well. Belfort is likely annexed, and perhaps a puppet Burgundy is carved out of Juna, Doubs, and Saone. Germany annexes Luxembourg and enlarges it in the process. See attached map.

France thus becomes economically dependent on Germany and is in no position to launch a future conflict, it becomes a secondary power firmly in German orbit but with a powerful navy and some colonies. If done right, there might even be goodwill between the countries in a generation or two.

If Italy stayed within the Central Powers it might get Savoy back along with Alpes Maritimes (Var and Basses Alpes would be a stretch).

View attachment 765353

This Is just not going to happen: the Brits would Just not quit the war and keep blockading Germany, even had they to sell their balls in order to pay for the effort; also anyone sane would see such borders for the madness they represent

 

[boredviewer1234]

This Is just not going to happen: the Brits would Just not quit the war and keep blockading Germany, even had they to sell their balls in order to pay for the effort; also anyone sane would see such borders for the madness they represent

Yep the diplomate who signs that treaty in Paris is going to be lynched as soon as people find out about it.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

OTL Soviet Union basically lost Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic to a surprise attack. If Russia is the country that launches the surprise attack at a time of relative strength they could cut off the Baltic and large parts of Ukraine while pushing deep into Belarus. If they have some kind of Lend Lease again, defeating them quickly wouldn’t be likely in the scenario.

 

[AustrianFanboy]

OTL Soviet Union basically lost Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic to a surprise attack. If Russia is the country that launches the surprise attack at a time of relative strength they could cut off the Baltic and large parts of Ukraine while pushing deep into Belarus. If they have some kind of Lend Lease again, defeating them quickly wouldn’t be likely in the scenario.

Yes like they did against Finland IOTL...a Surprise Attack...sure thing

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

This Is just not going to happen: the Brits would Just not quit the war and keep blockading Germany, even had they to sell their balls in order to pay for the effort; also anyone sane would see such borders for the madness they represent

For Britain to blockade Germany after France has fallen, they would have to extend the blockade to cover France and Spain. That would have the effect of uniting most of mainland Europe against them, which had been Britain's worst nightmare in terms of foreign policy. It would also sharply turn American opinion against Britain at a time when the British political elite were keen to start what we now call the "special relationship." Of course Britain would have other ways to prevent something like those borders, namely using the seized German colonies as bargaining chips, probably with a focus on keeping Belgian territory Belgian.

 

[Riain]

In any case of German victory Briey-Longwy Is going to be German; there is no way the Germans are giving up on that, not for any amount of colonies anywhere in the world.

Actually it was on the table as a bargaining chip, but not for colonies. It might have been exchanged for guarantees that punitive trade barriers and tariffs would not be emplaced against Germany in global markets while recognising the gains in the East.