To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory

Speaking about general terms if I had ear of current German government the following would be my priorities.

1) Uphold the victory in the east in some form. Baltics, Congress Poland, Belarus, Ukraine and Caucasus are HUGE. Nothing else matters if the Germans can secure that.
2) Annex Luxembourg as federal state to German Empire
3) Focus on having Belgium returned to neutrality. Failing that... Revise parts of the Treaty of London (1839), in particular the partition of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.

Have the Belgian Province of Luxembourg ceded back to the Grand Duchy.

To me Province of Liege isn't a big deal but to German Nationalists it was.

4) I would go for a status quo ante peace with France and UK. No border revisions in Europe or the colonies. That would be a win. Demand Belgian Congo but its a negotiating point, not a hill to die on.

Michael
 
Yeah the KM is going to be rubbing pennies for a while. I think the Reichstag wouldn't want to pay for another BB or BC until the mid 1920s.
Finish the 2 BBs and 4 Mackensen BCs.

That would give German with 8 ships armed with 13.8" and 15" guns.

Michael
 
Ideally the German post-war fleet of Capital ships would consist of the 4 Bayern BBs, the 4 Mackensen BCs {with the 2 Bayern BBs and 4 Mackensen BCs that have started construction being finished}, the 2 Derfflinger BCs, the Von der Tann BC, the Moltke BC and the Seydlitz BC in active service. While the 5 Kaiser and 4 König Class BBs, as well as the 4 Deutschland Class Pre-dreadnoughts, would be held in reserve the remaining older BBs and Pre-dreadnoughts would be disposed of by either gifting/selling them to other countries or scrapping.
 
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How about the Briey-Longwy iron mines tho?
Germans will have mineral wealth of Ukraine. Thats a lot. If they can get Luxemburg thats even more.

Again letting French off lightly in exchange for the above is a net win. You need to know when to cash in your chips and walk away from the table. Brest-Litovsk is a huge pot to cash in.

Michael
 

marathag

Banned
Ideally the German post-war fleet of Capital ships would consist of the 4 Bayern BBs, the 4 Mackensen BCs {with the 2 Bayern BBs and 4 Mackensen BCs that have started construction being finished}, the 2 Derfflinger BCs, the Von der Tann BC, the Moltke BC and the Seydlitz BC in active service. While the 5 Kaiser and 4 König Class BBs, as well as the 5 Deutschland Class Pre-dreadnoughts, would be held in reserve the remaining older BBs and Pre-dreadnoughts would be disposed of by either gifting/selling them to other countries or scrapping.
The best German postwar Fleet would be light on BBs and BCs, given how useless the were during the previous War.
Keep the Mackensens, and sell/scrap the rest.
Keep just the four to 'Show the Flag' while the rest being Cruisers, needed for Trade Protection.
That won't alarm the British, which is something you don't want, another building race of White Elephants.
 
The best German postwar Fleet would be light on BBs and BCs, given how useless the were during the previous War.
Keep the Mackensens, and sell/scrap the rest.
Keep just the four to 'Show the Flag' while the rest being Cruisers, needed for Trade Protection.
That won't alarm the British, which is something you don't want, another building race of White Elephants.
The one thing the war demonstrates is the absolute disaster it is to be blockaded for Germany. The Germans could hope that in a future conflict against France / Russia that perhaps UK stays out. Having the French fleet blockade Germany would be horrible.

As both a great power a credible battlefleet able to eject the French from north sea is required. Trick is finding a size big enough for that but small enough to not cause British to freak out.

Michael
 
The best German postwar Fleet would be light on BBs and BCs, given how useless the were during the previous War.
Keep the Mackensens, and sell/scrap the rest.
Keep just the four to 'Show the Flag' while the rest being Cruisers, needed for Trade Protection.
That won't alarm the British, which is something you don't want, another building race of White Elephants.
Since the 2 Derfflinger BC entered service in 1914 I would want to keep them simply because they are still fairly modern.
The 3 older BCs {the Von der Tann BC, the Moltke BC and the Seydlitz BC} I'd want to keep and use as the "Capital Fleet Element" of a Squadron stationed in whatever German Colony remains {German East Africa}.
The 5 Kaiser and 4 König Class BBs I'd put into reserve rather than scrapping because both classes are barely over 5 years old in 1917 and are only slightly outdated. Though when a/the Washington Naval Treaty comes up/happens they can be easily sacrificed to the Tonnage restrictions.
The 4 Deutschland Class Pre-dreadnoughts I want in reserve as Coastal defense Battleships for the Baltic in case of a war with Russia before the 1930s.
 
I would think that the last two Bayerns and the first two Mackensens are far-enough along to be completed without incurring too great a cost.
 
Trick is finding a size big enough for that but small enough to not cause British to freak out.
There is no such fleet size. The British freakout over the size German Fleet wasn't over the German Fleet. It was the admirality, Yellow Press, etc hyping the threat of the German Fleet to get more funding for the British Fleet. Egged on by commercial interests who were competed out by the Germans in countries that they hadn't locked behind imperial tarriffs. The war will make anti-German sentiment only higher. There is no magical "Fleet Size VS Anglo-German relations" policy slider for Germany to tweak. Instead the side, if any, Britain will be on in the next war will be decided by British internal politics.

Germany only has these options:

1. Double-down on the pre-war Risk Fleet concept. Hoping that it's newfound hegemony in Central Europe, plus said dominant position attracting new Allies while British global dominance hopefully declines will enable it to fund a Fleet at least 2/3rd the size of the British in addition to needing to fund a much larger army. Which will hopefully scare Britain into neutrality.

2. Accept that in another war with the UK, they'll be blockaded again and invest money into making provisions to be able to cope better with another blockade instead of a futile attempt to match them. Build only a significantly smaller fleet suited for coastal defence and commerce raiding. Instead invest into: Stocks of critical materials, cargo submarines, gouvernment financing for research into synthetics, subsidize chemical industries to maintain higher production capacities for synthetics than are actually used in peacetime, maintain surplus stockpiles of railroad tracks and rolling stocks to quickly improve overland connections to and in Allied countries, etc.
TL;dr give up on trying to break a British blockade and instead focus on being able to outlast it.
 
Germany only has these options:

1. Double-down on the pre-war Risk Fleet concept. Hoping that it's newfound hegemony in Central Europe, plus said dominant position attracting new Allies while British global dominance hopefully declines will enable it to fund a Fleet at least 2/3rd the size of the British in addition to needing to fund a much larger army. Which will hopefully scare Britain into neutrality.

2. Accept that in another war with the UK, they'll be blockaded again and invest money into making provisions to be able to cope better with another blockade instead of a futile attempt to match them. Build only a significantly smaller fleet suited for coastal defence and commerce raiding. Instead invest into: Stocks of critical materials, cargo submarines, gouvernment financing for research into synthetics, subsidize chemical industries to maintain higher production capacities for synthetics than are actually used in peacetime, maintain surplus stockpiles of railroad tracks and rolling stocks to quickly improve overland connections to and in Allied countries, etc.
TL;dr give up on trying to break a British blockade and instead focus on being able to outlast it.
Honestly, between their Navy seeming to trip at the finish line and it's in general lackluster performance, I honestly see Germany just moving for 2. It's a lot easier to do, and cheaper in the long term, while also being far less likely to kick off a war.
 
Honestly, between their Navy seeming to trip at the finish line and it's in general lackluster performance, I honestly see Germany just moving for 2. It's a lot easier to do, and cheaper in the long term, while also being far less likely to kick off a war.
I think the opposite just because of pride. If the right people get into positions of power they'll double, triple and quadruple down on the navy.
 
The British freakout over the size German Fleet wasn't over the German Fleet. It was the admirality, Yellow Press, etc hyping the threat of the German Fleet to get more funding for the British Fleet. Egged on by commercial interests who were competed out by the Germans in countries that they hadn't locked behind imperial tarriffs.
I mean sure, if you ignore the fact the German Naval buildup was specifically design to challenge the RN and had passed several naval laws to such purpose, the freakout about german fleet was nothing to do with its growing size...
 
I mean sure, if you ignore the fact the German Naval buildup was specifically design to challenge the RN and had passed several naval laws to such purpose, the freakout about german fleet was nothing to do with its growing size...
The German Naval buildup was never a threat to the British as hyped in the press, because Britain could (and did) swat the German Navy the moment it became relevant. The Freakout was engineered.
 

tonycat77

Banned
With no Versailles, there would be major butterflies for the german aviation industry.
i think we could probably see monoplane fighters start to become the norm far earlier, at least the parasol ones.
BMW v12s would probably see major evolutions, go for something similar to the AM-35 family by the mid 30s.
 
With no Versailles, there would be major butterflies for the german aviation industry.
i think we could probably see monoplane fighters start to become the norm far earlier, at least the parasol ones.
BMW v12s would probably see major evolutions, go for something similar to the AM-35 family by the mid 30s.
It's really difficult to see the technological developmetn of Germany without Versailles.
 
I think the opposite just because of pride. If the right people get into positions of power they'll double, triple and quadruple down on the navy.
I dunno, that relies on a lot going their way. Especially since the Army (fun fact, just finished rereading this baby), can point to a track record that is far more successful and ridden with glory in some form vs the Navy, whose track record in this war..... does not.

And if the generals can somehow keep a straight face, maybe mention that the unrestricted submarine war hurt Germany's international image?
 
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