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God the casualty count - especially among civilians - must be astronomical here. Just grinding back and forth battles over more or less the same chunks of land for years now.

At this point the "winner" will find victory to be an empty prize indeed considering how devastated China has been since the Boxer Rebellion.

I was actually going to ask what the general percentage of population loss China has suffered since the beginning of the Boxer Rebellion, because I had the exact same thought as you. The Rebellion, foreign intervention and now this grinding civil war ... the death toll must be near apocalyptic in some areas. Although China will, of course, recover once the wars come to a close, i'm suspecting that that is going to be a decades long process to say the least.

Also, what are Japan's feelings towards the Chinese Civil War here? Obviously, we have a Japan without Korea or the Russo-Japanese War, but the weakness in China must be seen as an opportunity to do SOMETHING in the government (either by supporting one side economically or militarily, or sending soldiers in to help maintain order at some conveniently important forts)
 
That makes complete sense. My line of reasoning was: the game takes off amongst the Irish, but comes to be seen as a blue collar game. Maybe there are some adjustments of rules to make it more distinctively American and then rises in popularity amongst Poles, Jews, Germans and the rest because 1) those groups don't have their own native games to promote (to the best of my knowledge - I remember looking into it and couldn't find much) and 2) exposure through workplace teams and leagus. It then becomes more of a class sport, rather than a purely Irish ethnic one in the US - and since the games are related, it wouldn't be hard for the players of one code to play Association in international competitions either.

But, as someone who played defense throughout my childhood, and is excited to see Milwaukee gettings an MLS team (even if I'm abroad right now), I can't fault any timeline where Soccer is bigger in the United States! Considering the strength of Soccer in Germany during this time, I imagine that the Milwaukee Club is going to be DYNAMITE in the Cinco-verse, and this makes me increadibly happy :D
Milwaukee SV, perhaps?!
God the casualty count - especially among civilians - must be astronomical here. Just grinding back and forth battles over more or less the same chunks of land for years now.

At this point the "winner" will find victory to be an empty prize indeed considering how devastated China has been since the Boxer Rebellion.
Particularly in central China between the Huai He and Huang He, absolutely. The Peking/Tientsin area hasnt really been affected for a while, and of course South China has been virtually untouched for most of the war.

Basically China gets a much worse 1900-1920ish in return for a way better 1920 and beyond
I was actually going to ask what the general percentage of population loss China has suffered since the beginning of the Boxer Rebellion, because I had the exact same thought as you. The Rebellion, foreign intervention and now this grinding civil war ... the death toll must be near apocalyptic in some areas. Although China will, of course, recover once the wars come to a close, i'm suspecting that that is going to be a decades long process to say the least.

Also, what are Japan's feelings towards the Chinese Civil War here? Obviously, we have a Japan without Korea or the Russo-Japanese War, but the weakness in China must be seen as an opportunity to do SOMETHING in the government (either by supporting one side economically or militarily, or sending soldiers in to help maintain order at some conveniently important forts)
So combined with that horrible 1907 famine in the areas that have been and still are now Battlefield: China (starring John Travolta!) I’d say places like Anhui have between death and refugees fleeing seen 20-30% population reductions and will definitely take decades to recover. The North China Plain and Shandong, where the Boxer Intervention and subsequent battles were concentrated, are probably closer to 5-10%, and that’s an aggressive estimate. That said, bear in mind places like Peking and Tientsin were essentially burned to the ground, so they are further behind cities that went relatively untouched.

Japan is biding it’s time and observing from its perch in Tsingtao. It competes for influence in Shamdong with France and Austria so is in decent terms with Peking, but much of the Tongmenhui are ardent Japanophiles and so they’ve cultivated a good relationship with Sun Yat-Sen and the gang, too. So nothing too adventurous, just using their considerable pan-Asianist soft power to gradually build influence in Shandong and south (there’ll be an update on this soon, actually, after we get through a few US-focused updates on Hearst’s second-term legislative agenda coming together and progressive insurgencies in both major parties, which I think will be up your alley!)
 
Citizen Hearst
"...getting the Towne Act in the rearview; drawn up largely by the committee chair who had helped sink the last year's version of the Corporations Act, it represented a compromise, incorporating both the thrust of Hearst's vision of a uniform legal regime for corporations while eschewing some of the more radical provision that had caused so many Congressional Democrats to balk. For instance, it exempted businesses that operated exclusively in two states - rather than just one - provided that those states were geographically adjacent (this was the key provision for Senator McAdoo), and it merged the enforcement of the Act with the general uniform accounting rules governed by the ICC, thus foregoing Hearst's vision of an independent Bureau of Corporations. The reworked bill passed by broad margins with a fair amount of Liberal support, too; Heart's willingness to defer to Congressional leadership on the Act served him well, for without it what came next may not have occurred.

In later years, the Revenue Act of 1910 would be described as "the reform from which all else sprung." It was not a commission, or board, or bureau meant to investigate, coordinate or regulate - it definitively, comprehensively placed the federal government in a position of authority it would never again relinquish, and created the precedent that there were limits to wealth inequality where the government would intervene. The first peacetime income and inheritance tax in the history of the United States was nothing short of a radical act. [1] Despite its negotiations being on their face more placid than the surprise dust-up between White House and Senate that accompanied the less revolutionary Towne Act, they were in fact more difficult behind the scenes. Hearst's most crucial progressive ally in Sulzer was a firm Georgist and was deeply personally skeptical, though not quite to the point of opposition, to a tax on incomes. Hearst suspected, but never had it confirmed, that Johnson was quietly encouraging fellow travelers in the House to back Sulzer on the matter and hold out of a land tax instead.

There were two reasons why Hearst was opposed to this. The first was that the left wing of the Democratic Party was drawn largely from the agrarian West and viewed the wealthy oligarchs of the East as the font of American inequality; to have their incomes and dividends exempted while farmland was taxed would be a betrayal. Beyond that, Hearst's own wealth was, atypically for his class, tied more heavily to mine and timber royalties and the vast acreages in the Mountain West which produced them, and he was more keen to personally pay a tax that placed him on an equal footing with his New York peers and rivals than one which they would largely themselves skirt. [2] Sensing that Sulzer was the holdup, Hearst quietly visited his oft-rival Bryan and encouraged him to give his acolytes in the House a nudge. [3]

Though the progressive House revolt against the concentration of power in Sulzer's hands was largely grassroots, that it was led primarily by Bryan's proteges Gil Hitchcock and Ashton Shallenberger, as well as the young radical George Norris [4] - all Nebraskans - was no coincidence, and was not seen as such. Hitchcock in particular gave an address on the House floor that would have made his mentor proud, pleading for a devolution of power to the committee chairmen and undersigning it as a principle of "true democracy, lest our Republican form of government wither!" Hearst then made his own move, publicly supporting Sulzer (who would not learn of Hearst's role in the House insurgency until years later, when he was out of elective politics) while behind the scenes suggesting that a way to tie the various wings of the party together would be to get the Revenue Act passed.

The Act that left the Ways and Means Committee would for some time bear the name of its chairman, Ohio's long-serving, on-again-off-again Isaac Sherwood, but would in time come to be known simply as "the Revenue Act," for that was the purpose it, to produce a peacetime stream of non-tariff revenue for the federal government for the first time. Indeed, no tariffs were reduced, at least not initially - Hearst was leery to anger working class union voters - and the thresholds for taxation were fairly high and the rates by modern standards low, but to the people of 1910 it was a sea change. [5] For the first time, all income over five thousand dollars a year - not distinguishing salary from dividend, interest or royalty - would be taxed at a rate of fifteen percent, and all income over ten thousand dollars a year would have an additional five percent surtax atop it. This meant, in practice, that the wealthiest Americas would be paying a fifth of their income to the federal government. In addition, the Act would separately tax inheritances in excess of ten thousand dollars at a one-time flat rate of thirty percent. [6]

The floor debate around the Act was ferocious in the House. Sulzer, of all people, in the end was the one who sealed it, breaking custom by participating in debate from the well, declaring, "It is no secret that I view a single tax on unproductive land as the fairest and most efficient way to spur prosperity and end poverty in this Republic; my own preferences aside, though, to cast aside this bill over the mechanism of taxation would be to transfer the power of taxation and spending entirely to the class of oligarchy and out of the hand's of the People. As the People's representatives, in the People's House, we must now - and pass this bill now!" The Act would pass the House 230-155. In the Senate, a fierce Liberal filibuster by conservatives Philander Knox and Henry Cabot Lodge was broken in time and two Liberals - La Follette and, more surprisingly, the ancient dean of the Senate William Sprague of Rhode Island - cast votes in favor of its passage. The Revenue Act of 1910 arrived on President Hearst's desk for his signature on April 5, and the Democratic press celebrated it as one of the greatest achievements in the history of the country. It was certainly the most momentous of his Presidency, even on the heels of the Fair Deal of his first term.

The passage of a peacetime tax on incomes felt to Hearst like something of a conclusive event; it had been the crown jewel of the populist and progressive project alongside the direct election of Senators. It would before long also come to feel like the last ride of the core group of men who had dominated American politics for a decade; within a year, McAdoo and Sulzer would both be out of Congress, and Vice President Johnson - who was unhappy about an income tax being passed but kept his opinion private - would have died, and by March of 1913 both Hearst and Bryan would be out of office, too. Together, these five men had delivered progressives victory upon victory; and the timing was quite opportune, for just a month after signing the Revenue Act, Hearst's attention would be turned away from legislative battles as a momentous summer loomed..."

- Citizen Hearst

[1] When combined with everything else Hearst has accomplished, it'll have a reputation more like the People's Budget of OTL Britain or something like that
[2] Remember - Hearst has a somewhat... complicated relationship with the New York elite, even Democratic movers and shakers, especially after he backed Tammany over Roosevelt
[3] We'll be seeing a little more about this in the next update, told from Sulzer's perspective
[4] IOTL a Republican, ITTL a Plains Democrat
[5] All rates I used are based on what the original 1895 income tax and Wilson's income tax approximately taxed, and the dollar amounts roughly on this. Obviously, TTL would have a different history of inflation, but it should give you a general idea
[6] So the asset is taxable to the inheritor, not the estate.
 
I don't know what it says about me - but I love these updates on the legislative process :) Also, so nice to see LaFollette get a shoutout!

So, I see without the Court's OTL ruling on Pollock v. Farmers' Loan & Trust Co, there's no need for a constitutional amendment to institute a progressive income tax in the Cinco-verse?
 
I don't know what it says about me - but I love these updates on the legislative process :) Also, so nice to see LaFollette get a shoutout!

So, I see without the Court's OTL ruling on Pollock v. Farmers' Loan & Trust Co, there's no need for a constitutional amendment to institute a progressive income tax in the Cinco-verse?
I enjoy some good legislative maneuvering myself, though it’s often a bit hard to write. So thank you!

Correct. Which is probably good, because by my math the Court of TTL’s 1890s would have been even more hostile to an income tax than Pollock’s


Shocked at the William Sprague babyface turn! Where did that come from?
To be honest, mostly me going for the lulz of a creaky old fossil of all people doing something useful in his twilight years. My post facto justification is Sprague panicking about needing something to make him stand out when he faces direct elections for the first time
 
Shocked at the William Sprague babyface turn! Where did that come from?

Actually, I did have a question about this: Is this William Sprague IV (who would be ancient by this point) or his son William Sprague V (who commited suicide in OTL, but perhaps did no in this ATL)

EDIT: Okay, definitely would be IV. V was born in 1865 and would actually be a relatively chipper 45 at this point, if he is still alive. But IV is 80 in 1910. Well, not the first politician that old who's still depserate to hold onto power.
 
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I enjoy some good legislative maneuvering myself, though it’s often a bit hard to write. So thank you!

Correct. Which is probably good, because by my math the Court of TTL’s 1890s would have been even more hostile to an income tax than Pollock’s

You did a good job of it - though I agree, it can be hard to write and keep engaging sometimes.

And yeah, I suspect that this is definitely going to get challanged in the Courts as well - but it sounds like the current Court is more supportive of such things (or, at least, is less willing to rock the boat, since I suspect any challange would come during the time of the Great American War - and suddenly striking down an Income Tax at the point when a war is being fought would be a rather bad look!)
 
Actually, I did have a question about this: Is this William Sprague IV (who would be ancient by this point) or his son William Sprague V (who commited suicide in OTL, but perhaps did no in this ATL)

EDIT: Okay, definitely would be IV. V was born in 1865 and would actually be a relatively chipper 45 at this point, if he is still alive. But IV is 80 in 1910. Well, not the first politician that old who's still depserate to hold onto power.
It’s IV for sure, and he’ll go down in history as the longest-serving Senator when all is said and done. No particular reason why i glommed onto him for that role it just sort of evolved that way.
You did a good job of it - though I agree, it can be hard to write and keep engaging sometimes.

And yeah, I suspect that this is definitely going to get challanged in the Courts as well - but it sounds like the current Court is more supportive of such things (or, at least, is less willing to rock the boat, since I suspect any challange would come during the time of the Great American War - and suddenly striking down an Income Tax at the point when a war is being fought would be a rather bad look!)
The Court never indulged any Lochner regime from a constitutional perspective, which is the biggest change, though it’s been relatively conservative on Commerce Clause grounds (so far). But yes it’s definitely going to be less hostile to the income tax than the Pollock Court was, which was a close run thing as it was
 
The Other Bill: Revisiting the Legacy of William Sulzer
"...not ideological but rather personal and procedural; in particular, the young insurgents grated against Sulzer's total control of the Rules Committee (which allowed him to influence how and when bills were brought to the floor), the Steering Committee (which selected committee memberships) and the Congressional Campaign Committee for both the Senate and the House (these committees would not be separated into their own bodies until 1985, two years after the Liberals did so), [1] keeping particular sway over the latter thanks to his friendship with the long-serving Chairman, John Joseph Fitzgerald, whom Sulzer was so close to he was the only man permitted to call his fellow New Yorker "Fitzy," a nickname Fitzgerald purportedly hated.

It was hard not to detect Bryan's hand behind the revolt, seeing as its three chief ringleaders were Nebraskans; it was Norris in particular who angered Sulzer the most, with his angry polemics from the floor of the House and his filing of multiple bills to codify in legislation new rules for the House, to circumvent Sulzer's close allies on the Rules Committee. The ordeal in the end was what persuaded Sulzer, shortly after seeing the Revenue Act that he had personally set aside his Georgist beliefs to whip over the line, to begin to consider his future. He had held an iron grip over the House for seven years and five of them had been spent passing revolutionary policies and legislation on everything from labor rights to banking reform to the military, and now a robust income tax; his legacy, even if his Speakership did not produce anything more than establishing post offices, was secure as one of the most transcendent figures in Congressional history and by far the most powerful and influential man to hold his office (Czar Reed could only have dreamed of holding a whip hand like Sulzer's!). So the timing - of the progressive revolt for more power in the House for individual members, the successful package of the centerpiece of the progressive project, and the looming midterms with a slowing national and world economy - came together to influence his decision to not stand for reelection, and instead seek the open Governorship of New York.

The decision was like a bomb going off in Washington. Sulzer had utterly transformed the role of Speaker, and allies like Clark or Donovan were uniformly not seen as capable of filling his massive shoes; it also presaged potential tension between Sulzer and Hearst, with the latter loathe to indulge any talk of somebody positioning themselves as his successor either in the state or national party (tradition and convention held that Presidents only sought two terms, but Hearst had been anything but conventional and there was a large minority of Democrats who were eager for him to buck precedent and seek a third election). Circumstances in New York also seemed promising; after Hearst's whirlwind Governorship there had been two terms of moderate progressive Governors who had fallen short of Sulzer's ambitious goals for his beloved home state, and the back half of outgoing Governor - and future President - Charles Evans Hughes' term had seen the Tammany-dominated legislature doing battle with the frustrated Liberal to stymie his reforms as the machine had progressively lost interest in the reformist spirit from a decade before. Sulzer's friend and ideological fellow traveler in newspaper magnate Theodore Roosevelt had as much of a frustration with Tammany and blamed them for blocking his attempt to run again as Mayor of New York the previous year, and had threatened to launch a progressive third party, [2] and Sulzer regarded himself as one of the few Democrats acceptable both to Hearst for their time together in Washington and to Roosevelt's faction to prevent a split and guarantee a win by the likely Liberal nominee, moderate former prosecutor Henry Stimson, known for his firm commitment to antitrust and Hughesian reformism to attract the progressive vote while being broadly acceptable to most moderates and conservatives in both parties.

The plan, then, though leaving a leadership vacuum in the House, seemed straightforward - the most powerful Speaker of the House in history would stand down to run for Governor ahead of a Presidential run in 1912, anointing himself as the personal and ideological successor to William Hearst in the process, for the Speakership was not an office known for vaulting men to the heights Sulzer sought..." [3]

- The Other Bill: Revisiting the Legacy of William Sulzer

[1] OTL, the DSCC was carved off in 1967
[2] Would be very on brand for Roosevelt to do so!
[3] Sulzer's distaste for Tammany was very real and is what sank his OTL Governorship, which is kind of a wild story of hackery and politically-motivated prosecutions. Our man Bill got done DIRTY
 
Dividing the Democratic party?
Nothing nearly that bad! The Dems have begun their long turn as the natural governing party of the US (moreso in Congress but still advantage in the Presidency) beginning in 1904 even with the Hughes era coming down the pike

(Under the hood: Hearst is sort of an American Wilfrid Laurier and the Dems are sort of analogous to the Canadian Liberals)
 
(Under the hood: Hearst is sort of an American Wilfrid Laurier and the Dems are sort of analogous to the Canadian Liberals)
So… ethnic divisions between WASPs and Irish still matter into the late date of the 21st century? That’s cool. I’ve always secretly desired to be ruled by Tammany Hall, who, with the right amount of Persuasion shall give me a guranteed job, allow me to get away with shoddy workmanship and skim my money, muhahahaa.
 
So… ethnic divisions between WASPs and Irish still matter into the late date of the 21st century? That’s cool. I’ve always secretly desired to be ruled by Tammany Hall, who, with the right amount of Persuasion shall give me a guranteed job, allow me to get away with shoddy workmanship and skim my money, muhahahaa.
I'm from Chicago - I'm 100000% pro patronage. My vote absolutely is for sale!
 
[3] Sulzer's distaste for Tammany was very real and is what sank his OTL Governorship, which is kind of a wild story of hackery and politically-motivated prosecutions. Our man Bill got done DIRTY

Reading up on him, he really was! I think it's safe to assume that he's going to be a bit more successful in this timeline ;)

Honestly, I can't wait for the post about the upcoming midterms - both because of some of the things you and I have discussed, but also because I'm going to be excited to see the lay of the land and get an idea of who some of the net upandcoming figures are going to be :)
 
So… ethnic divisions between WASPs and Irish still matter into the late date of the 21st century? That’s cool. I’ve always secretly desired to be ruled by Tammany Hall, who, with the right amount of Persuasion shall give me a guranteed job, allow me to get away with shoddy workmanship and skim my money, muhahahaa.
I'm from Chicago - I'm 100000% pro patronage. My vote absolutely is for sale!
Then boy oh boy are you two gonna love how the Dems develop in this TL!
Reading up on him, he really was! I think it's safe to assume that he's going to be a bit more successful in this timeline ;)

Honestly, I can't wait for the post about the upcoming midterms - both because of some of the things you and I have discussed, but also because I'm going to be excited to see the lay of the land and get an idea of who some of the net upandcoming figures are going to be :)
It’s coming down the pike! I’d say Sulzer has already had a better career by getting to be the progressive Joe Cannon and he’ll certainly be a more remembered figure
 
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