What if Switzerland and Sweden got involved in World War 2?

[Evil Crusader]

By if they got involved, I mean how they would affect the world if they declared war with or on the Tripartite Pact, or Germany, Italy, and Japan. I would think that if they joined in on the Axis powers' side, then the world would have been different. I would say the PoD is around 1933, where maybe due to the recent victory of the NSDAP in Germany, fascist influences would begin to rise in Sweden in Switzerland, with more of an increase in popularity in Switzerland. By 1935, I would say there may be an attempted military coup in Switzerland or maybe even Sweden, both supported by Germany. It could escalate into civil war, although less likely in Switzerland, as they would most likely fear a civil war, as they would just blow up all of their defences (literally, switzerland's plan if they ever do get invaded is to blow themselves up) and possibly fall from Germany attempting Anschluss with both Austria and Switzerland. Sweden would likely have a costly civil war, but all depending on when it starts would affect the outcome. If it started before 1936, I would say the current government would win, however if it started after Italy's annexation of Ethiopia, I would say that the Fascists would win in Sweden. More support for the nationalists in Spain would also come from Switzerland and Sweden. By 1938, they could join the Axis. They would join in World War 2 with the Axis, further securing iron trade between Sweden and the Axis. When the Winter War starts, Finland would likely join the Axis for protection against the Soviet Union, hastening Operation Barbarossa. With the USSR focused on Finland, they would not be able to withstand the German invasion, and would likely split forces, and lose Murmansk and Leningrad to Finland, and arrive too late to save Riga and Minsk. The Eastern Front would increase in size, and already Stalin's Russia would lose moral, and lives. Operation Weserubung would never begin, as Iron was already secured. Japan would be invading the Soviet Union from Manchuria, using the limited armies there to be better able to encircle the Chinese forces, and even possibly take out the Chinese. The Soviet Union would likely be forced to surrender, and if they haven't already, Japan could also force China and Mongolia to surrender. This could also hasten Pearl Harbour. By now, Mainland France would be split 5 ways, those being German, Swiss, Italian, Spanish, and a German client state in France based in the city of Lyon.

It seems to me one of those butterfly net things - with two such events in Europe, things would definitely play out very differently.
I don't see a Nazi coup in Switzerland easily happen, far from it in fact; and even if it happens, doubt Italy and France would stand by, and even if both happen, ramifications are still pretty huge. Sweden is more likely to be ignored by most, so even if the coup happens, not much changes. But that impacts all the subsequent moves: would Italy still move on Ethiopia, with Germany already pushing south? If she does, would France and UK not appease her to mantain the Stresa front which is even more endangered?
Events never live in isolation from each other, and while some may still happen in a similar way, you need a pretty reasonable series of motivations for it. Especially when they're relatively difficult changes to make, impactful ones, or both.

 

[FireCrispyHistory]

That's the problem. Why would the Swiss abandon neutrality? They really hadn't suffered in the Inter-war period, having sat out WWI, and missed the worst effects of the Depression.
Why would the populace get angry enough to flirt with Fascism? They had no lands torn away by unjust Treaty or conniving ex-Allies 'forgetting ' about secret deal made in backroom. Their main problem was drop in demand for Swiss exports, from machinery(and weapons) textiles and of course, watches.

They haf collected money during the War.
From everyone. And a lot of it.

They had collected enough Gold reserves to not worry much about deflation

Well, there was an old swiss confederation that had some French lands.

 

[FireCrispyHistory]

Sweden is more likely to be ignored by most, so even if the coup happens, not much changes.

Right, however Weserubung was to invade Denmark and Norway to Secure Swedish Iron, as Britain was threatening blockade to the 2 if they allowed Swedish iron access to Germany. If Sweden was in, they may still trade through the 2 countries, but I would guess higher trade using the Baltic Sea, as that seems more reasonable. I don't see a Weserubung happening if Sweden joins the Axis. And with that, Denmark and Norway wouldn't have fallen.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Right, however Weserubung was to invade Denmark and Norway to Secure Swedish Iron, as Britain was threatening blockade to the 2 if they allowed Swedish iron access to Germany. If Sweden was in, they may still trade through the 2 countries, but I would guess higher trade using the Baltic Sea, as that seems more reasonable. I don't see a Weserubung happening if Sweden joins the Axis. And with that, Denmark and Norway wouldn't have fallen.

Does not matter. There won't be a similar World War 2 anyways, if at all, because of the sheer impact of your proposed changes.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Right, but this is Alternate History, not Actual History. Also, I was just giving an example of how I think they could turn fascist based on what I already knew.

True, but if you want to present this timeline without feedback, positive or negative, then post it in the Writer's Forum.

Post it here, you should expect rigorous analysis.

 

[RedSword12]

The Swiss and Swedes would either find themselves invaded by the Reich, or if they chose to throw in with the Nazis, exceptionally unhappy come 1945, especially the Swedes, what with the reasonable chance that they will have to host some fraction of the Red Army.

Eh, I doubt it. Finland bowed out relatively easily IOTL, and Sweden is probably outside the logistical ability of the Red Army to invade, not to mention too costly. Switzerland is too difficult to invade and could probably wriggle its way out lightly.

 

[CalBear]

Eh, I doubt it. Finland bowed out relatively easily IOTL, and Sweden is probably outside the logistical ability of the Red Army to invade, not to mention too costly. Switzerland is too difficult to invade and could probably wriggle its way out lightly.

The Swiss would be a pain in the neck, but if the Berlin or Moscow decided they were worth the pain they would be tasty with some Tabasco. All the Swiss have is the "be a hedgehog" strategy, especially in WW II. Only problem with being a hedgehog is that if some critter is hungry enough (ferrets, who are ALWAYS hungry are a major predator) or clever (owls pick 'em up and drop them from some height, they don't ball up too well after that) wind up eating plenty of hedgehogs.

The Swede's might skate, might not. The Wallies gave the Finns a pass of sorts due to the recent history of the Winter war between the Finns and the Soviet aggression (the British and French were actually putting together expeditions at one point to help the Finns, never happened, but the idea was present), Sweden would have less of an excuse, especially since the Reich never even seriously threatened them.

Main thing that protected both countries is that everyone understands you need some sort of "honest broker" where things that have to be worked out can be worked out (even during a war there are things that need to be agreed upon or arranged).

 

[thaddeus]

Right, but this is Alternate History, not Actual History. Also, I was just giving an example of how I think they could turn fascist based on what I already knew.

there is an ASB forum where scenarios that have no gounding in historical events are most often housed, all the replies here have been polite answers pointing out some of the problems with your alt. history.

to just focus on the effects of Switzerland and Sweden in the Axis? there were significant increases in electric power and manufactured goods they could have contributed over what they were persuaded to do historically.

IDK how many troops could have been conscripted from both countries without harming their economies significantly? (the two countries had over 10m pop.)

the Swiss most importantly had huge gold reserves, even greater than what the Nazis robbed from the rest of Europe, would Germany even invade the USSR? a decision whose timing was economic as well as ideological.

 

[Orcbuster]

the two countries had over 10m pop

You mean put together right?

 

[Bougnas]

There is a much more plausible and simpler way to get Switzerland and Sweden involved. For Sweden, have the Wallies intervene in Finland/Norway before the Germans can invade the place and then they might have to attack to block iron ore transfer. For Switzerland, have the Belgian/Ardennes option be so bad this time that the Germans are forced to invade from the Swiss plateau.

 

[nbcman]

By if they got involved, I mean how they would affect the world if they declared war with or on the Tripartite Pact, or Germany, Italy, and Japan. I would think that if they joined in on the Axis powers' side, then the world would have been different. I would say the PoD is around 1933, where maybe due to the recent victory of the NSDAP in Germany, fascist influences would begin to rise in Sweden in Switzerland, with more of an increase in popularity in Switzerland. By 1935, I would say there may be an attempted military coup in Switzerland or maybe even Sweden, both supported by Germany. It could escalate into civil war, although less likely in Switzerland, as they would most likely fear a civil war, as they would just blow up all of their defences (literally, switzerland's plan if they ever do get invaded is to blow themselves up) and possibly fall from Germany attempting Anschluss with both Austria and Switzerland. Sweden would likely have a costly civil war, but all depending on when it starts would affect the outcome. If it started before 1936, I would say the current government would win, however if it started after Italy's annexation of Ethiopia, I would say that the Fascists would win in Sweden. More support for the nationalists in Spain would also come from Switzerland and Sweden. By 1938, they could join the Axis. They would join in World War 2 with the Axis, further securing iron trade between Sweden and the Axis. When the Winter War starts, Finland would likely join the Axis for protection against the Soviet Union(1), hastening Operation Barbarossa (2). With the USSR focused on Finland, they would not be able to withstand the German invasion, and would likely split forces, and lose Murmansk and Leningrad to Finland (3), and arrive too late to save Riga and Minsk. The Eastern Front would increase in size, and already Stalin's Russia would lose moral, and lives. Operation Weserubung would never begin, as Iron was already secured. Japan would be invading the Soviet Union from Manchuria (4), using the limited armies there to be better able to encircle the Chinese forces (5), and even possibly take out the Chinese. The Soviet Union would likely be forced to surrender, and if they haven't already, Japan could also force China and Mongolia to surrender (6). This could also hasten Pearl Harbour. By now, Mainland France would be split 5 ways (7), those being German, Swiss, Italian, Spanish, and a German client state in France based in the city of Lyon.

(1) Germany had a non-aggression pact with the Soviets IOTL. Why would they willingly bring Finland in as an ally to start a two front war in the winter of 1939/1940? It is a recipe for disaster for the Germans. Or it there an ATL with no Molotov-Ribbentrop treaty which means the Soviets wouldn't be attacking Finland period but would be concentrating on keeping forces in Byelorussia and the Ukraine in case the Germans get frisky.

(2) With what forces? The German military was concentrated on the West Front. If they stripped the West to attack in the east, there's no Fall of France. If they didn't deploy their forces to the West after the fall of Poland, the Soviets wouldn't have reduced their forces in former eastern Poland and attacked Finland.

(3) The Finnish army of 300-400,000 takes Murmansk and breaks through the Karelian Fortified Region and captures Leningrad - a city of over 3 million residents ? And the enfeebled German army gets to Minsk and Riga in neutral Latvia?

(4) Does Japan have a crystal ball to know to gather up forces to invade the Soviets again after being defeated by them in August 1939?

(5) And Japan can better encircle Chinese forces with weaker armies?

(6) Or Germany would be forced to surrender in 1941 and Japan would be defeated again by the Soviets in 1940 which would most likely create a situation where the Chinese forces can push back the Japanese.

(7) France could remain on the defensive against the Nationalist Spanish forces. Italy failed to significantly advance during their brief foray into France in June 1940. The German army is too busy dying on the plains of Russia to invade France. The Swiss would NOT want to advance without German support. So how is France being split?

 

[thaddeus]

to just focus on the effects of Switzerland and Sweden in the Axis? there were significant increases in electric power and manufactured goods they could have contributed over what they were persuaded to do historically.

IDK how many troops could have been conscripted from both countries without harming their economies significantly? (the two countries had over 10m pop.)

the Swiss most importantly had huge gold reserves, even greater than what the Nazis robbed from the rest of Europe, would Germany even invade the USSR? a decision whose timing was economic as well as ideological.

You mean put together right?

yes, over 6m for Sweden, over 4m for Switzerland

 

[DrakonFin]

yes, over 6m for Sweden, over 4m for Switzerland

Going by the Finnish OTL example, you could temporarily mobilize up to 1,5 million men for the military, and maybe up to 0,5 million women for auxiliary military duties for a few months from these two countries altogether.

For the duration of the war, for several years, you could keep maybe up to 50-60% of those numbers constantly mobilized. I believe that these are pretty much the upper limits for smallish countries that were not totalitarian before the war.

 

[von Adler]

The Swiss National Front had a grant total membership of around 10,000, and gained only 1.5% of popular vote in 1935 federal election IOTL. They were generally laughed off and branded as "un-Swiss".

All of the countries that fell into fascism/authoritarianism during the Interwar period IOTL were newly minted democracies without strong democratic traditions. We are talking about a country with longer and stronger democratic tradition than the US.

The three nazi parties in Sweden did their best election in 1936 with a total of 1,6% spread among them.

 

[thaddeus]

to just focus on the effects of Switzerland and Sweden in the Axis? there were significant increases in electric power and manufactured goods they could have contributed over what they were persuaded to do historically.

IDK how many troops could have been conscripted from both countries without harming their economies significantly? (the two countries had over 10m pop.)

the Swiss most importantly had huge gold reserves, even greater than what the Nazis robbed from the rest of Europe, would Germany even invade the USSR? a decision whose timing was economic as well as ideological.

Going by the Finnish OTL example, you could temporarily mobilize up to 1,5 million men for the military, and maybe up to 0,5 million women for auxiliary military duties for a few months from these two countries altogether.

For the duration of the war, for several years, you could keep maybe up to 50-60% of those numbers constantly mobilized. I believe that these are pretty much the upper limits for smallish countries that were not totalitarian before the war.

Canada had over 1m in all branches during WWII with a pop. of 11m, so in line with what you are projecting.

we don't really have a scenario here, apart from the fact the manufacturing base in the two countries would be further exploited. there was a critical shortage of "precision timepieces" (watches) for the expanded Allied militaries, with the US seizing all the Swiss exports (to S. America, etc.), so probably that would have become a real issue for the Allies if the Axis kept 100% of production.

assume Sweden would bolster Finland with weapons and troops? but their main benefit might be the fairly large navy? (9 of the old coastal BBs and 20 DDs) combined with KM vessels (and the Finnish vessels) they could eliminate the Soviet navy, the whole picture in the Baltic much different than historical?

the Swiss sort of throttled aluminum production (hovered around 60% capacity) in their joint plant on the border with Germany by not increasing hydroelectric production. that likely changes, with more aircraft or aircraft engines available?

 

[Hammerbolt]

...and very likely occupy the Azores as well. With all the iberian affiliated islands in Allied hands Gibraltar as a Atlantic naval base is much less important. Beyond that losing Gibraltar creates a stronger incentive to invade Morocco earlier. Either French, Spanish, or both as circumstances indicate.

About 98% went around the Cape vs through the Med from July 1940 to May1943. What little that ventured into the Central Med was largely aimed at Maltas resupply. The one major exception was the convoy the Operation TIGER ran through from the east to Alexandria. That was the result of careful planning and good luck. The Brits never actually tried anything on that scale again, despite incentives and plans.

If Spain joins the Axis, this would efectivelly shutdown all access to the Med via the Atlantic, Gibraltar or no. German/spanish/italin subs and aircraft, based in the south of Spain would make entering the Med the mother of all gauntlets. Compared with this, Operation Pedestal would look like a walk in the park. Not to mention that Portugal would most likely be forced, at gun point, to either join the Axis or else... which would most likely mean german subs based there...

But this is academic, tbh. In this scenario, as in OTL, Spain is utterly shattered economically, and completely dependant of foreign imports of grain and oil, which this modified Axis would not be able to replace.

 

[pjmidd]

People here are forgetting one tiny but very inconvenient problem with the fantasies being spun, the Royal Navy. Just like OTL when it was a big persuader of Spain staying out, these countries join the Axis and they are blockaded. Since both need food, oil and other imports, most of which Germany is already short of , economies are going to crumble, possible famine etc.

 

[FireCrispyHistory]

People here are forgetting one tiny but very inconvenient problem with the fantasies being spun, the Royal Navy. Just like OTL when it was a big persuader of Spain staying out, these countries join the Axis and they are blockaded. Since both need food, oil and other imports, most of which Germany is already short of , economies are going to crumble, possible famine etc.

Even though Germany blockaded Switzerland because they were trading with the allies. Switzerland actually had to use a navy to secure their trade.

 

[The Byronic Hero]

If you really want to shake things up, get Turkey to join the Axis. Able to supply rebellion in Iraq against UK as well as open another front in Barbarossa making Baku an objective. Sadly not an option. Switzerland just seems a mess with no gain and Sweden brings more to the table as a neutral. Maybe the Swedes join in an "push" the Finns to move on Murmansk. Only plus I see.

 

[CalBear]

If Spain joins the Axis, this would efectivelly shutdown all access to the Med via the Atlantic, Gibraltar or no. German/spanish/italin subs and aircraft, based in the south of Spain would make entering the Med the mother of all gauntlets. Compared with this, Operation Pedestal would look like a walk in the park. Not to mention that Portugal would most likely be forced, at gun point, to either join the Axis or else... which would most likely mean german subs based there...

But this is academic, tbh. In this scenario, as in OTL, Spain is utterly shattered economically, and completely dependant of foreign imports of grain and oil, which this modified Axis would not be able to replace.

Spain, on paper, would have been a nightmare. In actuality would become a less deadly version of Italy (mainly thanks to the virtually certain Civil War redux that would break out across the country. The Allies being actually fighting on the Peninsula would also give the Portuguese reasonable protection/confidence that they could come in on the WAllied side.

The scenario would also be a bloody nightmare for the U-boat campaign. The Azores are now available years earlier than IOTL and the Canaries/Spanish North African ports are no longer available for the occasional, very quite, repair and refuel that Dönitz's boats enjoyed while become excellent bases for hunting KM assets trying to operate in that part of the Atlantic.