Circling back to synthetic oil, one of the issues the Japanese would have is that synthetic oil from coal largely produces lighter fuels. This was perfect for the Germans, who largely needed gasoline to power the Luftwaffe and Heer, but it's an issue for Japan given their biggest fuel need was to power their ships and that required heavy bunker oils.
WI: Japanese Solve 1930s Fuel Shortages By Using Synthetic Oil Production Via Manchurian Coal Fields
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marathag
Banned
With synth fuel, you are hydrocracking very long chains to shorter by the Bergius process to remove the excess Sulfur, Oxygen and Nitrogen and adding Hydrogen, this gets you liquid, using simple heated fractional distillation
C137H97O9NS to Diesel C12H24
Now Heavy fuel Oil, you can leave more of the unwanted trash in, like the Sulfur and will roughly have over 30 Carbon Atoms and twice the Hydrogen
What if they hit on an equivalent of the Karrick process
From wiki and elsewhere....
In the Karrick process, 1 short ton of coal yields up to 1 barrel of oils and coal tars (12% by weight), and produces 3,000 cubic feet (85 m3) of rich coal gas and 1,500 pounds (680 kg) of solid smokeless char or semi-coke (for one metric ton, 0.175 m³ of oils and coal tars, 95 m³ of gas, and 750 kg of semi-coke). Yields by volume of approximately 25% gasoline, 10% kerosene and 20% good quality fuel oil are obtainable from coal. Gasoline obtained from coal by the Karrick process combined with cracking and refining is equal in quality to tetraethyl lead gasolines. More power is developed in internal combustion engines and an increase in fuel economy of approximately 20% is obtainable under identical operating conditions.
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marathag
Banned
The Bergius Process the German used, was around 6 tons of Coal for one ton of liquid fuel.
It was less efficient, and initially more expensive to construct, but far easier and cheaper to keep running
But any way you look at it, it's expensive infrastructure to replace the glut of $1 Barrel Crude Oil, where the delivery charge was almost equal to the cost of the material.
A country really needs to be focused on Autarky in the '20s to get where you need to be in the 1940s to be Energy independent
There were bigger issues in the Embargo Acts than scrap metal. First & foremost was the 'Freezing' of Japanese bank accounts in the US. Japan had been increasingly dependent on short and longer term credit with US banks to finance its war with China, its imports, and effort to accelerate industrial growth in its empire. Plus US banks like those in London acted as a enabler in Japans purchases globally. Freezing the accounts cut off Japans credit, and severely hampered its ability to buy anything, embarked or not.
The second issue was that half or more of the cargo ships discharging or intaking cargo in Japans ports were foreign flagged. Most of those were ships controlled directly or indirectly by the US and Britain. The five to six million tons cargo ships remaining under Japans control in August 1941 were 25% to 50% short of the minimum Japan needed to maintain essential import/exports, and grossly inadequate for long term industrial growth. Japan did embark on a emergency program to build six million plus tons of cargo shipping in the next three years, but this came at a huge cost in capitol investment and competed with building warships for the Navy.
Bottom line is the two items outlined above crippled Japans economy no matter what resources it discovered or captured. To get to sustained economic growth & sustain the war in China Japan needed to avoid the embargos, or at least end them in 1942.
The second one is easily overcome if Japan finds oil. Protecting the oil supply becomes a measure of national importance, they'll absolutely cut part of the Navy if they have to.
The sanest way to avoid embargoes would be to avoid occupying French Indochina (but sending a warning to Vichy France that "should more weapon deliveries go to China through Vietnam, then Indochina will be occupied"). Vichy France would likely have caved (it couldn't afford any conflict with Japan, having a lot more problems at home and in French Africa...).
The sequel to Abraham Lincoln Vampire slayer
Spoilers
Turns him into a vampire. Basically after his massive accident in the 40's that nearly killed him it was bad enough to actually kill him. The US Gov didn't feel it could lose Hughes at the time and somehow managed to find and convince a vampire to turn him. It saves his "Life" but more or less drives him insane with his later decline heavily caused by his psychological reaction to his vampirism (and his germophobia leading him to purchase one of the first dialysis machines to "clean" all the blood he consumes. Which other vampires thinks is actually what causes his decline. His biggest impact is fanatically funding efforts to cure his vampirism pouring money into searching for a cure. Which he attempts to use and kills him.
Honestly that makes Howard Hughes make a lot more sense.
The role of the 'fanatics', the local officers pushing for occupation irregardless of government policy is not clear to me in this. I've assumed they were one of the important driving forces here. One tactical commander attacked across the border and had his command fighting the French unauthorized for several days in 1940. Assuming that lot is controlled its not hard to get to your proposal. The Germans were able to have the French stand down and let the Japanese army in. They could have instead directed France to cease allowing supply to the KMT through FIC. Extending that further they could have also directed France to sell Mekong Rice & Michelien Latex to Japan at more favorable terms. Obtaining the items at better prices and larger quantities is both a incentive to not occupy FIC, and leaves the US undisturbed by a nonevent.
One long term effect is the US mobilization from July 1940 through 1941 is less disturbed by the prospect of a immediate Pacific War. It remains more focused on Germany. Unless some other event leads back around to a Pacific war 1941-9142 Japan remains focused on Asia & the US Germany First policy is not disrupted by a emergency in the Pacific region.
If that was the case do you think the Americans would still put resources into reinforcing the Philippines and the U.S. Pacific Island possessions? Would the Pacific Fleet still be relocated to Maui? One butterfly that comes to mind is the USN taking the U-boat threat off the Atlantic seaboard, Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea more seriously and preparing for that.
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Some. We were slowly creating the PI military. So building that vs sending national guardsmen from California. How far it goes with other measures depends on if the Japanese stay focused on China.
They thought they were preparing, but got blindsided by Hitlers DoW months earlier than anticipated. The capability of the Type IX boats as a group were not anticipated either. Doneitz was able to surge those enmass & repeatedly. As with everything else a few months further preparation held, tho its not a panacea.
Lucius Verus
Banned
So what are they giving up in exchange for synthetics? Imperial Japan wasn't rich, spent alot of what little it had on the military, and the generals ran Manchuria sub-optimally. One's gotta think that it'd be cheaper and easier just to stock more cheap oil than a high upfront payment for limited capacity that competes with energy needs of industry.
So ATL, under pressure from the Allies, Stalin peaces out Japan and Japan also gets concessions out of the Allies (Stalin won't let the USSR shoulder the cost of removing Japan from the board alone). WWII plays out and Japan ascends to a victorious WWII nation a la Italy in WWI haha.
What does Japan get out of Allies? Puppets on Indochina and dutch indies? Confirmation of supremacy in China and Korea?
But hey, a supposed Army ascendant Japanese military would be totally ok with shifting the IJN to trade creation and protection. A government zaibatsu that builds ships, all the ships! Welcome to Japan where the government is the companies.
Allies are not going to give European colonies to Japan willingly.
Throwing China under the bus is more possible
Throwing China under the bus is more possible
Garrison
Donor
Bear in mind to pay off in any reasonable time frame this synthetic fuel program will have to be put into place years before any embargo on oil supplies is even a consideration and while oil is dirt cheap on the international market and which given the amount of labour, steel, etc. involved will directly compete with military production. And now you wish to add a major civilian shipbuilding drive on top of that? I suspect whoever is behind this idea will be getting a visit from some very angry military officers with very sharp swords.
This plan labors under the massive assumption, that as per OTL, the allies are willing to make peace. If they aren’t.... well then the only thing Imperial Japan can meaningfully control is the time and place of their surrender or the near extinction of their people.
It would be more like "WAllies and Stalin reach a compromise with Japan before December 1941, offering important concessions to Japan".
Once PH has happened, nothing will be accepted except unconditional surrender of Japan indeed.
This exactly. Besides oil scrap metal was embargoed which puts a huge crimp on steel production needed for new ships. And the freezing of Japanese accounts means a lot of other needed exports won't be available.
According to H.P. Willmott Japan needed 10 million tons of shipping pre-war to meet its needs but only had about 6 million tons under their flag; the other 4 million tons were allied and neutral shipping that disappeared the instant the first bomb hit Pearl Harbor. Japan managed to build/capture about 1.25 million tons of merchant shipping but of course US subs started putting the screws to the Japanese Merchant Fleet almost immediately (of course, until better torpedoes became available they weren't very effective). But Japan's Merchant Fleet started shrinking from Day 1 and never recovered.
So even with the oil Japan is facing enough troubles that war is inevitable. They start with more oil but have all the other issues including the lack of shipping to move troops around.
There were 39,000 French civilians in Indochina in 1940, or 0.2% of the population. I don't think that counts as a 'European colony'. Regardless, frame it as decolonization and do so with Japanese advisors and administration. You might even get the Americans happy since decolonization was a big sticking point post-WWII.
I think both the Allies and Soviets would be very happy to either separate-peace Japan if they already invaded the Soviets, or to bribe them to keep them out of a hot war with concessions. Germany/Europe first was always the plan and I think being offered a diplomatic solution to keep Japan out would be a high priority. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe_first
Important thing to consider is that in this ATL more resources were pushed to the Army, does the Navy even have the capability for Pearl Harbor in this timeline? I would assume no. With less of a blue water navy, America might see Japan as less of a threat to Hawaii and the West Coast.
A very good point. It's a coin toss as to whether or not Zuikaku and Shokaku have been laid down, and without them an attack on Pearl just won't happen. Possibly no Yamato's either...