The way forward for the British is very much dependent on when/if they capture Tripoli, and at what cost. In addition, once its clear that the entirety of Italian North Africa is going to fall to the British, how much damage to the Port of Tripoli. Do the Italians allow the Germans to do, and how much do they do themselves, given that it is the major port of the colony and it will be their colonists who suffer if the port is destroyed. Can Uncle Benito afford to have pamphlets picturing staving Italian colonists, dropped over his principal cities, while the BBC blasts out a constant liturgy of tales about how the British are making Herculean efforts to feed said colonists. The Germans too have a problem, what price there propaganda, of how the British left the French to fight at Dunkirk, while running away with their tail between their legs. If they pull out all their troops from Italian North Africa, via Tripoli and then destroy the port behind them, leaving the Italians in the lurch. The Germans have another big problem, they are reliant on the Italians for the naval assets to evacuate their forces, they could try asking the Vichy French to assist, some hope. So do the Germans try to evacuate their forces, while destroying the only major port in INA, do the Italians allow them to do this, and what toll on the ships evacuating Germans and Italians will the British exact.
The problem for the British is what state will the Port of Tripoli be in when they capture it, and what do they do once they have it in their hands. If it has been totally destroyed, the British have a potential military disaster on their hands, and an actual humanitarian disaster to deal with. How do they feed and supply their own personal, and in accordance with the Geneva convention those enemy forces they have captured. What is their responsibility to the civilians, both indigenous and colonial settlers, to insure their well-being. If the damage to the port is more superficial, how quickly can the clear the damage, and return the port to its full working capacity. With the best will in the world and given a totally undamaged port, it’s going to take between four to six weeks, for the British to get on top of the situation. They have to improve the handling facilities at the port, round up and sort all of the German and Italian forces, that have fallen into their hands. Establish a civil administration for Tripoli, note this is a semi modern city, not some fly infested village or harbour. Think about what they do next, start the process of reequipping their forces, new uniforms, replacements for worn out kit, etc. And reorganisation of the hodge podge of forces, into something that resembles a more coherent force. On the question of what will happen to the various Australian forces, I personally believe that the Australian Government, possibly with the New Zealand Government will want to see the formation of an all Australian Corps. Three devisions, one armoured and two infantry, with other than some Corps artillery, all Australian personnel, or the formation of a new ANZAC Corps, of four devisions, one of which is a New Zealand infantry devision. If any units are sent to Malaya/Singapore right now, it will be one of the Indian devisions, and that is dependent on the shipping being available. Until the Japanese invasion, why send an Australian devision that is equipped and trained to fight a European stile high intensity mechanical warfare. Far better to retain them in the Middle East, than send them to Malaya/Singapore, where they would have to give up the majority of their advanced equipment, retrain, and adapt to totally different conditions. Instead send the Indian devision from the Middle East, a British infantry devision on its way to the Middle East, and the Australian infantry devision that was originally planned to be sent to Singapore. The biggest advantage you can give the forces in Burma, Malaya and Singapore, is to reorganise the command structure, and replace the present ground force commanders, with younger experienced ones from Britain. And once again I will suggest that Montgomery with his fetish for hard and realistic training is the ideal person to become Commander Ground Forces Malaya and Singapore.
Once the British are in possession of Tripoli, it will depend on what the French in FNA decide to do, before the British can make any firm plans. If they decide to chuck in the towel and defect from the Vichy government, and work out a deal with the British and Free French. There will be a lot of negotiations, that need to take place, before a deal can happen. Britain has a lot on its plate right now, what to do with Crete and the thousands of Greek troops that have been evacuated from Greece. What to do about the Vichy French in Syria and Lebanon, and those Italian islands to the east of Crete. Where to strike next, against the Germans, an invasion or a major raid, in the Mediterranean or from Britain. And what to do about the increasing threat from the Japanese in the Far East, shut down all major operations in the Mediterranean for now and concrete on reinforcing the Far East. Continue operations in the Mediterranean at a reduced scale, while diverting resources to the Far East. Or keep your fingers crossed that the Japanese will not be so stupid, and are just puff and wind, but not in the end going to do anything. So full steam ahead with your Mediterranean plans, and please London where are the better tanks etc, and the amphibious units, you promised use. Even if/when the Japanese jump into the preverbal frying pan, unless there can as they did IOTL, achieve the complete collapse of the British, and capture Singapore. The war will be from then on very different to what it was IOTL. Unless Rommel can pull the magic rabbit out of the hat, the campaign in North Africa is over, it’s just a question of how long it takes to finish off. Britain in 1942, will have more time and resources to deal with the ongoing conflict in the North Atlantic, more aircraft especially, it is going to after thoroughly testing introduce a new and in some ways the first main battle tank, along with a number of other armoured vehicles. If after much debate it is decided not to invade Northern Norway, you can expect a number of very serious raids on this area, to be carried out. And at some point, Rhodes and a number of Italian islands are going to be invaded, along with raids on the Greek mainland. The entry of America into the war, will be a great relief, and the British will be in a much stronger position both morally and politically, than they were IOTL, able for the first year and possibly longer, to while not call the tune, at least have a major say in which one gets played.
RR.
BTW, I am of the opinion that the Germans won't attempt any major withdrawal of troops from Libya. And neither will the Italians.