Probability of Hitler Rising In a World Without the Soviet Union?

SpacePotato117

What are the chances that Hitler could rise to power in an alternate world where the Soviet Union never came to be? I'm asking this because much of his hate was directed at communism. Could he have risen without the communist bogeyman? After all, there are still the Jews to scapegoat and the Nazis seems fine with using violence and intimidation to achieve power.

I think this could change depending on whether Russia is still imperial or ruled by a republic. For the empire to survive suggests that it managed to modernize better than OTL. The republic, while not authoritarian or communist, would likely be socialist to some degree. Would the scenario be different depending on which government Russia is ruled by?

And if Hitler does manage to rise to power, how would things go from there? Would appeasement happen as it did? Would Hitler still have aspirations to conquer Eastern Europe and Western Russia? How would a potential alternate World War 2 go (if it happens at all of course)?
And again, how would this change depending on whether Russia is imperial or democratic socialist?
 

Post

I think he could rise to power.
His opinions of the Russians wouldn't be any better, according to the nazi's they'd still be untermenschen. So they'd still be a target to acquire lebensraum. It would have significant butterflies though, especially it the Russian empire still stands. They're more likely to side with the UK and France from the start and might deter an invasion of Poland. There's also the question if there would be a Poland to start with. No Russian revolution means no Brest-Litowsk and maybe the Russians on the winning side. Maybe a harsher Versailles and also less of a Dolchstosslegende. Which may lessens Hitlers chanches to get the power.
 

James Ricker

His chances of rising to power would be greatly reduced
If the Communists haven't refused to work with Hindenburg he would not have had to turn to the Nazis in order to form a government.
With no Soviet Union working with Hindenburg may have been distasteful but it would have been seen as a legitimate recognition of their power and a path for future gains
 

SpacePotato117

James Ricker said:
His chances of rising to power would be greatly reduced
If the Communists haven't refused to work with Hindenburg he would not have had to turn to the Nazis in order to form a government.
With no Soviet Union working with Hindenburg may have been distasteful but it would have been seen as a legitimate recognition of their power and a path for future gains
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So how like do you think are the chances of Hitler still rising? 30%?

Or could Germany potentially go communist here?
 
HelloThere

HelloThere

Even in a world without the Soviet Union socialism will still be a mass movement threatening the status quo. There will still be parts of society who are very open to antisemitism and pan-german nationalism. Of course a world with a failed October Revolution would release butterflies the size of battleships, so Hitler's rise isn't confirmed. But the fundamental problems of the german society aren't affected as much as it may seem.
 

mial42

Gone Fishin'
Low, because Mothra sized butterflies. The Great Depression might not even happen TTL. It's not completely impossible, but the sequence of events by which Hitler rose to power was very contingent even OTL, and there's no reason to believe something similar would happen TTL.

Now, some form of right wing revanchist, anti-semitic, anti-slav, anti-Communist militarism in Germany is much more likely, but this does not have to be the Nazis.
 
BELFAST

BELFAST

There still would be a German communist party.
Had to say, it could go either way.
If he does come to power he will invade Russia as he will still want the resources and farmland as far as the Urals for his thousand year Reich.
 
GameBawesome

GameBawesome

If the whites won the Russian Civil War, I think Europe doesn’t have to worry about the Communists in Russia, but the Communists coming OUT of Russia. A lot of Soviet Revolutionaries would flee out of Russia, and possibly spread throughout Europe, probably fermenting Communist revolutions, especially in the turbulent Germany.
 
CHKeeley

CHKeeley

While many of the conditions that led to the NSDAP’s success in Weimar are still at play, including what might be an even larger socialist-revolutionary movement(?), at the same time I do feel like if Bolshevism was crushed by the traditional military establishment/autocratic forces in Russia, then the German industrialists and right wing politicians would have far less of a feeling that they needed to collaborate with a mass-based party like the NSDAP and they could instead rely on the traditional police and military apparatus to deal with communism. Without the success of the Bolsheviks in Russia, the German right will be a good deal less paranoid while still being fervent anti-communists and having to deal with indigenous left-revolutionary movements. They might feel like they can rely on the older Bismarckian tactics for dealing with would-be revolutionaries rather than the (to them) distasteful choice of working with the Nazis and Hitler.
 

mial42

Gone Fishin'
GameBawesome said:
If the whites won the Russian Civil War, I think Europe doesn’t have to worry about the Communists in Russia, but the Communists coming OUT of Russia. A lot of Soviet Revolutionaries would flee out of Russia, and possibly spread throughout Europe, probably fermenting Communist revolutions, especially in the turbulent Germany.
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Eh, based on the precedent of the SCW, most of the Russian socialists will be dead or lose heart. I don't doubt that there would be some exiles, but probably not many and they wouldn't exactly be welcomed.
 

Johnrankins

Extremely low. The Whites winning the RCW cause a huge wave of butterflies that makes it unlikely FDR becomes president let alone Hitler becoming chancellor and FDR is far more likely than Hitler.
 
Fernan3451

Fernan3451

One user actually stated that the only possibility Germany had for being commie was in 1919. Hinderburg isn't going to simply avoiding Hitler from taking the position of chancellor and leave the communists (to which he feared so much) to take power just because there is no USSR.
 

Red_Neptune

SpacePotato117 said:
Why is that?
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I don't necessarily see why the lack of a USSR would butterfly the FDR Presidency, but vis-a-vis Germany, virtually everything would change. The lack of a Soviet Union would mean that the German military-industrial elite would have no reason to fear a renewed Communist threat, which IOTL Hindenburg sought to prevent by giving the reins to Hitler (seen as the only person capable of filling the power vacuum in Germany and preventing Communism). A lack of a Communist threat would hugely impact the power dynamics of Great Depression-era Germany, which were necessary for Hitler to come to power.
 

Johnrankins

Red_Neptune said:
I don't necessarily see why the lack of a USSR would butterfly the FDR Presidency, but vis-a-vis Germany, virtually everything would change. The lack of a Soviet Union would mean that the German military-industrial elite would have no reason to fear a renewed Communist threat, which IOTL Hindenburg sought to prevent by giving the reins to Hitler (seen as the only person capable of filling the power vacuum in Germany and preventing Communism). A lack of a Communist threat would hugely impact the power dynamics of Great Depression-era Germany, which were necessary for Hitler to come to power.
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More the "Whites winning the RCW " lets loose such a huge flock of butterflies almost everything changes than anything else for FDR.
 
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AdA

Less likely.
Lack of the USSR seriously reduces the perception of a communist threath, making it a lot less likely that moderates on the right will cooperate with the Nazis. It will also make it a lot more likely that there would be a more agressessive containment by Britain and France, since a Nazi Germany will no longer be seen as a bulwark againts Communism.
But there is still the issue of German populations living outside of Germany and a strong revisionist pull that no other party in Germany was adressing.
The Nazis could still rise to power, but IMO no USSR means no appeasment.
 
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