What if GB did a USA in WW1?

[Ordensmarschall]

What if, perhaps due to an earlier Home Rule for Ireland crisis, Great Britain declined to join in at the beginning of the First World War. What if, instead, she made a whole load of money from selling equipment and munitions as well as War Loans to her most favoured combatants, France and Russia. Then decided to throw in her lot a few months from the end of the conflict when all the combatants were on their last legs. How would this effect the World Order following the peace negotiations? You can have the USA entering, along with Great Britain, towards the end of the war or staying neutral throughout the conflict.
Would Britannia continue to Rule the Waves for the foreseeable future and retain its Global Supremacy?

 

[matzeskatze]

If Britain is sufficently distracted for them to not enter as OTL I think the Germans have a good shot at cripeling France in 14. It may not end there but the French were Imo clearly on the backfoot and strugeled even with British manpower to hold.

So if Germany can kick the French down a notch in danger potential then the Russians are in even more dire straits then OTL.

Also how will the French and Russians pay for all the equipement and material that the British financed in OTL?

Another point is that Germany is not blockaded in this case and has also access to the world market. Not only that but its voice can be heard and as such the propaganda war will be very different then OTL.

Personaly I think the Germans should have it in the bag in the late 15 or early 16 at the latest. And if Britian should enter then, under what cause, then it will be still internaly distracted by Ireland. And whatever wings flapping that will have caused.

 

[naraic]

Another poster recently asked about what if Italy joined the France Russia alliance early.

I didn't respond but I did wonder if Britain would have still come to the same level of reapproachment with France and Russia as it did historically.

Britain staying out and playing merchant while France Italy Russia and Serbia struggle with Austria and Germany would me more realistic than Britain staying out in an otherwise otl ww1.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Britain will find it hard to find allies anywhere. France & Russia will feel betrayed by British intimations of support that dispersed like early morning mist, especially if they end up with huge debts owed to London. No-one would trust the UK for some considerable time.

 

[Garrison]

What if, perhaps due to an earlier Home Rule for Ireland crisis, Great Britain declined to join in at the beginning of the First World War. What if, instead, she made a whole load of money from selling equipment and munitions as well as War Loans to her most favoured combatants, France and Russia. Then decided to throw in her lot a few months from the end of the conflict when all the combatants were on their last legs. How would this effect the World Order following the peace negotiations? You can have the USA entering, along with Great Britain, towards the end of the war or staying neutral throughout the conflict.
Would Britannia continue to Rule the Waves for the foreseeable future and retain its Global Supremacy?

Problem is without British and Empire manpower France is going to be in trouble in fairly short order, especially if Britain staying out leads to the Italians sticking with the Central Powers as they may not believe the French can deliver the territorial concessions they want without British approval.

To be clear this plan of entering the war with a mass army once the other parties were exhausted was exactly what Kitchener wanted but the realities on the battlefield dictated otherwise.

 

[CalBear]

There is a better than even chance that Imperial Germany wins the war before the summer of 1915, possibly even the end of 1914. That "Contemptible Little Army" stopped the Heer cold and prevented the Germans for managing to flank the French lines and roll them up.

It isn't certain, the German Right Wing was still too weak to fully implement the original Schlieffen Plan, but without the BEF to at least slow the advance through Flanders, it becomes a very near run thing.

 

[mial42]

The CP would win quickly (relatively speaking; think 1-2 years instead of 4). They'd be much stronger with access to world trade and France/Russia much weaker without direct British financial support (Italy wouldn't join TTL; Italian economic dependence on Britain was a major factor in the Italian decision). The result would not have Britain "retaining global supremacy." Britain never had global supremacy, merely preeminence, and even in this was falling behind both Germany and (especially) the US by 1900. In the aftermath of a CP victory, Britain would be solidly in the #3 spot at best, probably falling to #4 within a couple of decades if Russia isn't completely dismembered. The Royal Navy would probably remain the world's strongest navy for a few decades unless US congress decides to outbuild them, but would be relatively weaker compared to its potential threats, since the HSF would still exist.

 

[CalBear]

The CP would win quickly (relatively speaking; think 1-2 years instead of 4). They'd be much stronger with access to world trade and France/Russia much weaker without direct British financial support (Italy wouldn't join TTL; Italian economic dependence on Britain was a major factor in the Italian decision). The result would not have Britain "retaining global supremacy." Britain never had global supremacy, merely preeminence, and even in this was falling behind both Germany and (especially) the US by 1900. In the aftermath of a CP victory, Britain would be solidly in the #3 spot at best, probably falling to #4 within a couple of decades if Russia isn't completely dismembered. The Royal Navy would probably remain the world's strongest navy for a few decades unless US congress decides to outbuild them, but would be relatively weaker compared to its potential threats, since the HSF would still exist.

The British would, tradewise, never fall below #3, likely #2.

As long as they had the vast colonial Empire and the Dominions as junior trading partners, who give them access to an incredible range of raw materials and places (especially the colonies) to sell finished goods, that is not going to change. The U.S. had the same sort of advantages with almost everything located within national Borders. Germany will, assuming it takes all the French colonies (which might just get the two empires engaged in a colonial war, given the Royal Navy's advantage in numbers, coaling stations and relatively strong overseas contingents, I'll take the British and spot the Germany five points) still be #3.

If anything the RN jacks up its building program precisely because the HSF remains a threat, and could pose a problem if the aforementioned colonial war were to break out. A British Empire that has not fought a long and almost absurdly costly, both in blood and treasure is still relatively wealthy (for one thing it hasn't had to pawn the Crown Jewels to cover loans from the United States to pay for the war). The USN is also not seen as pretty much a friendly power, at least not to the degree IOTL, something that also will encourage the Exchequer to hold the purse open for the Admiralty.

Russia was a dead body simply looking for a comfy place to fall down. Win/lose/draw the Tsar had mismanaged the country to the point that the only real question was what form the Revolution would take (IOTL it took the worst sort, especially for Nicholas and his family, violent regicide and murderous oppression of all opposition). The late Senator John McCain famously described 2008 Russia as a "Third World Country with a gas station", in 1918 Russia was a Third World Country with a bakery.

 

[mial42]

The British would, tradewise, never fall below #3, likely #2.

As long as they had the vast colonial Empire and the Dominions as junior trading partners, who give them access to an incredible range of raw materials and places (especially the colonies) to sell finished goods, that is not going to change. The U.S. had the same sort of advantages with almost everything located within national Borders. Germany will, assuming it takes all the French colonies (which might just get the two empires engaged in a colonial war, given the Royal Navy's advantage in numbers, coaling stations and relatively strong overseas contingents, I'll take the British and spot the Germany five points) still be #3.

If anything the RN jacks up its building program precisely because the HSF remains a threat, and could pose a problem if the aforementioned colonial war were to break out. A British Empire that has not fought a long and almost absurdly costly, both in blood and treasure is still relatively wealthy (for one thing it hasn't had to pawn the Crown Jewels to cover loans from the United States to pay for the war). The USN is also not seen as pretty much a friendly power, at least not to the degree IOTL, something that also will encourage the Exchequer to hold the purse open for the Admiralty.

Russia was a dead body simply looking for a comfy place to fall down. Win/lose/draw the Tsar had mismanaged the country to the point that the only real question was what form the Revolution would take (IOTL it took the worst sort, especially for Nicholas and his family, violent regicide and murderous oppression of all opposition). The late Senator John McCain famously described 2008 Russia as a "Third World Country with a gas station", in 1918 Russia was a Third World Country with a bakery.

Trade is only one component of power. In terms of industry, population, and economy Britain was already well behind both the USA and the German Empire by WW1, and British dominance over world trade will continue to slip against both of them as it already had in the decades prior, especially once much of Europe is incorporated into a German-led trade block.

As for Russia, the Tsardom =/= Russia. Even if we assume the Tsardom was doomed (I'm less certain, but it was certainly on uneven footing), it does not follow that Russia is doomed. OTL Russia was devastated (the most of any GP except A-H, which ceased to exist) in WW1, then completely destroyed in the Russian Civil War, then brutally mismanaged in the 1930s, then devastated AGAIN in WW2, and still came out a superpower and the world's second most powerful country by a wide margin. Outside of complete dismemberment (which is possible, but IMO not probable with a quick war), Russia is almost certainly going to surpass every other country in Europe with a couple of decades of peaceful development.

Britain (outside of the much-bandied about but IMO not at all likely Imperial Federation) just isn't big enough to compete with the US, Germany, or Russia long-term. Colonies are no substitute for a large and well-developed metropole.