The flame of British Liberalism burns steady and brighter: A timeline from 1945

[pipisme]

With Britain keeping its independent nuclear deterrent, its delivery system was an issue. Gaitskell wanted to keep Skybolt, but Kennedy officially cancelled the Skybolt program on 22 November 1962, because of several test flight failures. (1) In December Gaitskell went to Bahamas for negotiations with Kennedy. Though he had flu, he was well enough to make the trip. After long discussions, Kennedy's offer to sell Polaris to Britain was rejected. So there was not a Nassau agreement as there was in OTL. (2) in OTL the Labour Party wanted to renegotiate the Nassau Agreement.

(1) For Skybolt see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAM-87_Skybolt.

(2) For the Nassau agreement see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassau_Agreement.

 

[pipisme]

After the prime minister, Hugh Gaitskell, returned from the Bahamas in December 1962 he recovered from the flu. However he became ill with a virus and was admitted to Middlesex Hospital in Marylebone, London, on 4 January 1963. He died on Friday 18 January 1963 from complications following lupus, an autoimmune disease, which had affected his heart and kidneys. His wife was besides his bedside. (1)

There was an outpouring of death from across the political spectrum at Gaitskell's death. He had been prime minister for only 13 months. The shortest period in office for a prime minister since Andrew Bonar Law in 1922-23. Tributes were paid in the House of Commons on 21 January by James Callaghan, the deputy leader of the Labour Party; Harold Macmillan, the Conservative Party leader; Frank Byers, the Liberal Party leader; and other MPs.

Labour MPs now needed to elect a new leaderof the party Those who were in receipt of the Labour Party Whip were eligible. The first ballot would be held on Thursday 7 February. If no candidate received more than half of the votes, the last place candidate would be eliminated and a second ballot take place on 14 February. If no candidate won an overall majority on that ballot, there would be ballots until a candidate was elected. In the meantime, James Callaghan was acting leader.

The candidates were Callaghan who was also Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons; Michael Foot, the Minister of Education and Science and the left-wing candidate; Hilary Marquand, the Commonwealth Relations Secretary; and Alfred Robens, the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

The number of votes received by each candidate was as follows:
Callaghan: 155
Robens: 92
Marquand: 59
Foot: 37
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Total: 343
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Foot was eliminated. Callaghan was now the favourite to be elected leader. The result of the second ballot was as follows:
Callaghan: 183
Robens: 95
Marquand: 63
--------------
Total: 341
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Callaghan became leader of the Labour Party and prime minister.

(1) Gaitskell's illness and death was as in OTL. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Gaitskell, section headed 'Death'.

 

[pipisme]

Prime minister James Callaghan made the following changes to his government:
Michael Stewart from Minister of Housing and Local Government to Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons; Anthony Greenwood from Minister of Public Buildings and Works to Minister of Housing and Local Government, and promoted to the cabinet; Peter Shore from Minister of State at Board of Trade to Minister of Public Buildings and Works. Niall MacDermot was appointed Minister of State at Board of Trade.

The two candidates in the election for deputy leader of the Labour Party were Sir Frank Soskice, the Home Secretary, and Michael Foot, the Minister of Education and Science. The result of the ballot on 28 February 1963 was as follows:
Soskice: 226 votes
Foot: 112 votes.

 

[pipisme]

John Dugdale, the Paymaster-General and Labour MP for West Bromwich, died on 12 March 1963. James Callaghan appointed Douglas Jay as Paymaster-General, and Herbert Bowden Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster in place of Douglas Jay.

The West Bromwich by-election was held on 4 July 1963. It was a Conservative gain from Labour with a majority of 5.2%. Dugdale's majority in the 1961 general election was 6.4%.

The winter of 1962/63 was the coldest in Britain for more than two hundred years. In February 1963 the number of people unemployed in Britain reached 806, 558. The highest for the year.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

In the OTL 1950s, the Liberals were in many ways to the Right of the Conservatives and were the distinctive voice against the prevailing Butskellite ethos. Indeed, some of those who were in the Thatcherite vanguard in the 1950s cut their teeth in the Liberal Party of the 1950s (as indeed did broadcasters Robin Day and Ludovic Kennedy and both had ideas which now seem mainstream but for the time were in credibly advanced as to how political parties could use the media).

Though this TL begins from 1945, have always wondered how the likes of Archibald Sinclair would have fared had he taken over an ATL Liberal party more associated with helping the country bounce back quickly from the Great Depression and led by Pro-British rearmament Liberal leaders that manage to become PM in 1929 and 1933*.

*- Whether Austen Chamberlain had circumstances been different pre-1945 (especially against his Conservative half-brother Neville who succeeds him as PM), Violet Bonham Carter or anyone of similar leanings at the helm in place of David Lloyd George.

With the exception of Harold Macmillan, were there any other Liberal leadership candidates along similar ideological lines as the OTL 1950s Liberals that could have been potential breakout PM contenders in ATL if the party remained a significant political force capable of winning elections from time to time (ideally at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives)?

 

[pipisme]

If Leslie Hore-Belisha had stayed in the Liberal Party, he would be a feasible candidate for Liberal Prime Minister. In OTL he was Minister of Transport from June 1935 to May 1937, then Secretary of State for War to January 1940, and
Minister of National Insurance in the Caretaker Government from May to July 1945. He died in 1957. Here is his biography on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_Hore_Belisha.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

If Leslie Hore-Belisha had stayed in the Liberal Party, he would be a feasible candidate for Liberal Prime Minister. In OTL he was Minister of Transport from June 1935 to May 1937, then Secretary of State for War to January 1940, and
Minister of National Insurance in the Caretaker Government from May to July 1945. He died in 1957. Here is his biography on Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leslie_Hore_Belisha.

Interesting. Could see Hore-Belisha potentially becoming leader of the Liberals from the mid-to-late 30s ITTL in place of OTL Herbert Samuel, with a decent shot at becoming Prime Minister in the post-war era before being succeeded by either Archibald Sinclair or Harold Macmillan.

Fascinated by his idea of building an alternative to the Suez Canal from the Gulf of Aqaba to the Mediterranean in 1954, even if such a project was unlikely to come to fruition. Would the Liberals have supported an ATL version of Rab Butler's Operation ROBOT being implemented?

From my admittingly limited perspective the early 1960s onwards would be a challenge as far as electable leaders are concerned in ATL, yet like the idea of the Liberals embracing some proto-Thatcherite elements before the Conservatives appropriate it.

 

[pipisme]

Many commentators attributed the Conservative victory in the West Bromwich by-election to the issue of immigration. They wanted to restrict immigration from the Commonwealth, similar to the Commonwealth Immigrants Act 1962 in OTL. (1). However the Labour and Liberal parties opposed limiting immigration.

In this TL there was no Beeching Report on the future of the railways, not the London Governmemt Act 1963 which replaced the London County Council, Middlesex County Council and suburban councils in Essex, Kent and Surrey, with the Greater London Council.

The leader of the Conservative Party, Harold Macmillan, was admitted to hospital during the night of 7-8 October 1963 with prostate problems. He was operated on in the morning of 10 October and made a full recovery. On 8 October he announced his intention to resign as Tory Party leader when a new leader had been chosen.

The candidates for party leader were Quintin Hogg, Iain Macleod and Reginald Maudling. The Tories were holding theirparty conference in Blackpool from 8 to 11 October, and it became a hustings for the party leadership contest. Hogg was the darling of party activists so he received rapturous receptions at rallies and meetings. However they did not elect the leader. This was decided after consultations with the shadow cabinet, Conservative MPs and Peers, and party notables in the constituencies. Maudling was the clear favourite of the first three groups, and he became party leader on 13 October.

Historians are generally of the opinion that Macmillan used his prostate problems as an opportunity to resign the Tory Party leadership. He wanted to resign anyway. He was 69 years old and would be 72 at the next general election expected in 1966.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_Immigrants_Act_1962.

 

[Rattigan]

I don't think it's been asked here but what happened to Evan Durbin TTL? I assume he died as in OTL because I didn't see him in any of Gaitskell's cabinets but I wondered if he was in the Bank of England or something...

 

[pipisme]

I don't think it's been asked here but what happened to Evan Durbin TTL? I assume he died as in OTL because I didn't see him in any of Gaitskell's cabinets but I wondered if he was in the Bank of England or something...

Durbin died in 1948 in this TL as he did in OTL.

 

[pipisme]

The Kinross and West Perthshire by-election caused by the death of Gilmour Leburn (Conservative) on 15 August 1963, was won by the Conservative candidate, George Younger. (1) The Liberals went up from third to second place.

The Dundee West by-election caused by the death of John Strachey on 15 July 1963, was a Conservative gain from Labour with a majority of 3.7%. In the 1961 general election the Labour majority was 10.2%.

(1) In OTL the by-election was won by Sir Alec Douglas-Home. In this TL he did not disclaim his peerage as Earl of Home.

 

[pipisme]

County, borough and rural district and urban district council elections were held on 7 May 1964. In the election for the London County Council the number of councillors elected for each party were as follows (1961 election):
Conservative: 64 (42)
Labour: 62 (84)
-------------------
Total: 126 (126)
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However Labour kept control of the council by 74 to 73 because they had a majority of aldermen. In other county council elections, the Conservatives gained control of Lancashire and Middlesex, and the Liberals came second in the Conservative controlled Devon and Somerset councils.

In the borough council elections the Liberal Party had a net gain of 45 seats, compared with 1961 when those seats were last contested, bringing their total number to 584. This was more than the Independents without Conservative support. In borough and district council elections, the Liberals gained control of Finchley and Rochdale, and kept control of Aldershot, Chippenham, East Grinstead, Maidenhead, Potters Bar, Orpington. St. Albans, Taunton, and Wilmslow (Cheshire) councils,

In boroughs with a population of more than 250,000, the Tories took control of Bradford, Cardiff, Leicester, and Nottingham councils.

 

[pipisme]

There were three by-elections on 14 May 1964. Devizes and Bury St. Edmunds were caused by the deaths of the sitting Conservative MPs, and Lincoln by Geoffrey de Freitas, the Minister of State at the Foreign Office being appointed as Secretary-General of the Council of Europe. Callaghan promoted Judith Hart from Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office to Minister of State, and appointed Lord Walston as Under-Secretary in place of Hart.

In the Bury St. Edmunds election, the Conservative majority over Labour increased 1.6% to 10.3%. In Devizes a Conservative majority of 4.9% over Labour in the general election became a majority of 17.4% over Liberal in the by-election. Shirley Summerskill won Lincoln for Labour with the majority over Conservative reduced from 15.3% to 3.7.%.

 

[pipisme]

The Southgate by-election, caused by the death of Beverley Baxter (Conservative) took place on 4 June 1964. It was held for the Tories by Geoffrey Johnson Smith. Their majority over Liberal was reduced from 18.6% to 12.9%, (1) The Shoreditch and Finsbury by-election on 15 October 1964, caused by the death of Michael Cliffe (Labour) was held for Labour by Ronald Brown, the younger brother of George Brown, the President of the Board of Trade. (2)

In OTL, David Steel was elected Liberal MP for Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles in a by-election on 24 March 1965, caused by the death of the sitting Conservative MP. In this TL, there was a Liberal MP for this constituency, and he was in good health. Whether or not Steel is elected to the House of Commons in this TL remains to be seen.

The Erith and Crayford by-election on 11 November 1965, caused by the death of Norman Dodds (Labour), was won for Labour by David Winnick. (3)

(1) In OTL, Anthony Berry held the seat for the Tories in the 1964 general election.

(2) In OTL, Ronald Brown was elected MP for the constituency in the 1964 general election.

(3) In OTL, James Wellbeloved was Labour MP for the constituency in the by-election.

 

[pipisme]

The satire boom of the 1960s, such as the magazine Private Eye and the television programme That Was the Week That Was satirised the Labour government as part of a fuddy duddy, out of date, establishment. Labour countered by calling the satirists upper middle class Tories.

 

[pipisme]

The Birmingham Edgbaston by-election on 10 March 1966, caused by the death of
Edith Pitt (Conservative), was won for the Tories by Jill Knight. The Llberals went up from third to second place.

Harold Hayman, the Labour MP for Falmouth and Camborne, died on 4 February 1966. His majority over Conservative in the 1961 general election was 10.8%. The Labour candidate in the subsequent by-election was David Owen, a handsome twenty-seven year old doctor. The Labour and Liberal campaigns made much of Robert Boscawen, the Conservative candidate, being a memberof the right-wing Monday Club. (1). Dr. Owen won the by-election with a majority of 4.9% over Boscawen. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows (1961 general election):
David Owen (Labour): 39.4 (42.9)
Robert Boscawen (Conservative): 34.5 (32.1)
Manuela Sykes (Liberal): 26.1 (25.0)

Some To ries blamed their candidate's membership of the Monday Club for their defeat.

(1) For the Monday Club see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monday_Club.

 

[pipisme]

A general election in October 1961, was regarded as inevitable. No one expected prime minister, James Callaghan to wait until November or December, which would have been constitutionally possible. An official announcement was issued to the press on 6 September that a general election would be held on Thursday 6 October. Parliament would be dissolved on 16 September, with 26 September the closing date for nominations. Parliament would assemble after the election on 18 October.

While it was generally expected that Labour would lose seats, it was uncertain as to whether or not they would lose their majority, or if the Tories would win a majority. Opinion polls fluctuated between small Conservative and narrow Labour leads. There was considerable media speculation about the election resulting a hung parliament. The Liberal leader, Frank Byers, refused to say which party the Liberals would put into power in that eventuality.

The Conservatives gained 32 seats from Labour, and one from Liberal. They lost four seats to Liberal and one to Labour. The number of seats in the House of Commons won by each party was as follows (after December 1961 general election):
Labour: 318 (349)
Conservative and Unionist: 289 (261)
Liberal: 22 (19)
Speaker: 1 (1)
----------------------
Total: 630 (630)
---------------------
Labour majority over Conservative and Liberal was 7 (69).
The percentage votes for each party were as follows:
Labour: 40.1 (42.5)
Conservative and Unionist: 38.8 (37.9)
Liberal: 19.4 (18.3)
Others: 1.7 (1.3)
--------------------------
Total: 100.0 (100.0)
--------------------------
The turnout was 76.6% (75.3%).

The biggest shock of the election was the defeat of the Foreign Secretary, Patrick Gordon Walker, in Smethwick by the Conservative candidate, Peter Griffiths, whose election campaign was widely condemned as racialist. The Minister of State at the Board of Trade, Niall MacDermot, lost his Lewisham North seat.

 

[pipisme]

In the general election, the Tories gained one seat from Labour in Scotland, one in Wales and two in northern England (Bebington and York), but most of their gains were in the midlands and south of England. The only Labour gain was Liverpool West Derby from Conservative. The Liberals gained Aberdeenshire East, Aberdeenshire West, St. Ives, and Scarborough and Whitby from Conservative. The Conservatives gained Eye from Liberal.

 

[pipisme]

Most of the notable Labour MPs who won seats from the Tories in the 1961 general election, and are listed in post #86 on page 5, were re-elected in 1966. They were as follows: Jeremy Bray (Middlesbrough West), Gwyneth Dunwoody (Exeter), David Ennals (Dover), Walter Johnson (Bedfordshire South), John Mackintosh (Berwick and East Lothian), David Marquand (Barry), Stan Orme (Stockport South), Jo Richardson (Hornchurch), Paul Rose (Manchester Blackley), Renee Short (Watford), Dick Taverne (Putney), Shirley Williams (Hitchin). The following MPs lost their seats: John Dunwoody (Plymouth Sutton), Frank Judd (Portsmouth West), Joan Lestor (Lewisham West), Evan Luard (Oxford). Niall MacDermot (Lewisham North).

Among the new Tory MPs were Michael Hesiltine (Tavistock), and Geoffey Howe (Bebington). James Kulfedder was re- elected as Ulster Unionist MP for Belfast West, defeating Gerry Fitt (Republican Labour).

 

[stodge]

Apart from the typo - the GE was October 1966 - all plausible. A Conservative recovery but not enough to break through the Labour majority built up in 1961.

If not already asked, I presume the World Cup occurred as in OTL and of course Aberfan occurred in OTL on October 21st 1966 so you'd see Callaghan and the Queen going to the village (perhaps).

The Smethwick contest in OTL was infamous, as you say. Griffiths went on to become Conservative MP for Portsmouth North as I recall defeating Frank Judd in 1979 and holding the seat until defeated in the 1997 Labour landslide.

Compared with the 1966 OTL election, the Liberals in ATL are getting a lot more votes (19.4% compared with 8.5% in OTL) and seats (24 here compared with 12 in OTL).