alternatehistory.com

…The German High Command was despondent at the end of Fall 1918. They had just enough replacements to maintain frontline strength during the lull that came following the end of their major offensives. Any heavy combat would rapidly see their frontline strength crater, and with much of 1919’s conscripts already poached in previous years the manpower situation would not get better. To free up a reserve to avoid an immediate disaster if the front heated up again they would have to withdraw to shorter lines. A decision was made to create a new defensive line somewhat before the lines as they had stood in the Spring, using the territory devastated in the later phases of their offensives as a logistical barrier to slow the Entente.

Construction of the line took two months and the withdrawal would occur in January. Codenamed Rumold, after another character from German mythology, it occurred from January 9th to the 13th, covered partly by a snowstorm. Unlike the earlier Alberich the Entente noticed the withdrawal early on. General Pershing wanted to launch an assault to catch the Germans out of position as they were changing lines, while Petain, Haig and Foch were leery of launching an assault without extensive preparations first and refused to allow it. Ludendorff’s memoirs suggest that Pershing’s opinion was the proper one and that any major attack had the risk of unhinging the entire German position…

…The German High Command knew that they could not hold out past the end of 1919, their war economy simply would not sustain it, in fact their ability to last until October or November was questionable. However they believed, correctly, that the Entente did know that. As such they planned to fight until the end of summer, then offer terms to the Entente while bluffing that they would keep fighting. With the prospect of having to wait until 1920 to end the war in front of them the Entente would be inclined to reasonable terms it was thought.

The problem with this was Germany’s allies. Romania and Bulgaria were not under any real pressure and were capable of lasting as long as Germany, however their faithfulness was in serious doubt given their refusal to contribute even a tithe of troops to the Western Front or to help the Ottomans. If the war lasted that long it was likely that they would make a separate peace, or even possibly change sides.

The Ottomans of course were in bad shape. The Germans did not think they would be able to last that much longer, the mountains and winter weather were holding the Entente back more than the Ottoman Army. One good push and they would be overwhelmed, the German advisors embedded with them had reported back. Once the passes cleared they would have a matter of months before the Entente broke into the Anatolian plateau and ended the Empire of Osman.

However this unreliability was manageable, none of them shared a border with Germany, and had not been allied with her prewar. It was the Austrians that concerned the Germans the most. The cornerstone of German foreign policy since 1871 had been Austria as the eternal ally, France as the eternal enemy. Austria’s fate would have a significant impact on Germany’s future.

Austria’s position was significantly worse than Germany’s, by all estimates they would not last until September, with many believing that they might collapse before July. When that happened Germany would lose its biggest ally and a substantial part of the forces in play. What was worse was that unlike with Germany the Entente knew how badly off Austria was, they would not be bluffed into thinking Austria could last past 1919.

Therefore, with the consent of the Kaiser and Chancellor, the High Command proposed that Austria and Germany put everything into fighting off the first major entente offensive, believed to be in March or April, then immediately start negotiations for peace, relying on hopes the Entente would negotiate reasonable terms rather than pay a hefty price in blood. If reasonable terms did not emerge, the Austrians would keep negotiating in order to get the least unreasonable terms possible, while the Germans would try to fight on until the end of summer in hopes of better terms. Kaiser Karl, seeing no real alternative agreed to the German plan. The two main Central Powers would prepare for one last great defensive battle in order to stave off complete catastrophe…

-Excerpt from The Loss of Innocence: America in the Great War, Harper & Brothers, New York 2014





Short update I know, ah well Covid still sucks. Also I make no apologies for naming the operation Rumold, he was one of my favorites when we read the song of the useless guys in class