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The 1968 Presidential Election Results Breakdown and Down-Ballot
The 1968 Presidential Election Results Breakdown and Down-Ballot
Presidential Election Results
View attachment 569380
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 345
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 128 (minus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 64 (plus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
Richard Nixon's campaign strategy was almost perfectly designed to lose to Eugene McCarthy. Building his candidacy around being as inoffensive as possible, Nixon hoped to carry the election on the support of the suburban middle class, and general distaste for the incumbent Democratic administration, while at the same time conceding traditional Democratic demographics without any particular effort to try and win them over. It is worth noting that this strategy was nearly identical to Thomas Dewey's in 1948, where he famously lost in President Truman's upset victory. The reason that Nixon won with the same strategy that Dewey lost with is because the suburban middle class dramatically expanded in size between 1948 and 1968, and, even then, Nixon's victory was incredibly narrow. The reason this strategy was especially weak to McCarthy was that it relied entirely on the suburban middle class to carry the day, and that was McCarthy single strongest demographic. McCarthy had a twelve point lead over Nixon with middle class suburban voters on the low end, and on the high end of polling had an astounding twenty point lead in a traditionally Republican demographic. IOTL, outside of the South, the only demographics that Nixon won were high income urban voters (sixty-three percent to Humphrey's twenty-nine percent to Wallace's five percent), middle income urban voters (forty-four percent to Humphrey's close forty-three percent, to Wallace's thirteen percent), and rural voters of all income (forty-six percent to Humphrey's thirty-three percent to Wallace's twenty-one percent). Taking this data into account, the suburban middle class vote ITTL's election using the low point of McCarthy's suburban middle class polling, would have been around fifty-six percent for McCarthy, thirty-three percent for Nixon, and eleven percent for Wallace, in an election that was decided by this very demographic. Likewise, by ignoring traditional Democratic demographics, Nixon was ignoring McCarthy's weakest demographics, who could have been convinced to vote for a Republican in the highest numbers in decades, which could have made up the difference in McCarthy's suburban strength. Having made in-depth plans since 1966 to finally become president, both IOTL and ITTL, Nixon seemed incapable of dramatically changing tactics as he would have had to to beat McCarthy. Similarly, Nixon would have been unable to take a strongly hawkish position to challenge McCarthy without isolating the suburban middle class voters he was relying on to win.
McCarthy also had significant cross over appeal from potential Wallace voters. Wallace was the second choice of sixteen percent of McCarthy's voters in the Democratic primaries, which accounted for around five hundred thousand Wallace votes, mostly in the Midwest, during the general election. When most of these McCarthy-to-Wallace voters were asked why they would make such a dramatic ideological shift, most of them cited emotional rather than policy reasons for supporting the candidates; when asked why they supported McCarthy, many cited his personal traits, such as 'bravery' or 'honesty,' and felt that Wallace best embodied these traits after McCarthy. However, like IOTL, Wallace did not change the outcome of the election. ITTL, Wallace carried Tennessee and South Carolina not because of anything he was doing himself, but because Southern conservative voters were not afraid of McCarthy like they were of Humphrey. Nixon's anti-Wallace effort in the South was based around generally agreeing with Wallace but claiming that a vote for Wallace was a wasted vote that risked Humphrey winning. This argument is less potent with McCarthy as the Democratic nominee. To give you an idea of right wing voters not being afraid of McCarthy, around an eighth of McCarthy's small dollar donations came from self-identified Barry Goldwater voters. Because of this lack of fear, several states that would have otherwise gone for Nixon went to McCarthy, with more conservatives being willing to vote for Wallace. The McCarthy states that Wallace cost Nixon ITTL were Missouri, Kentucky, Alaska, and Texas.
If Wallace had not been a candidate ITTL's election, the results would have looked something like this:
View attachment 569386
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 296
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 242
In the end, even without Wallace, McCarthy's broad suburban support and large personal following in several key states would carry the day. These pro-McCarthy key states were determined by the pollster John Kraft, when comparing McCarthy's percentages to Nixon's around the time of the Democratic National Convention. Compared to Nixon, McCarthy had a twenty point lead in Oregon, a seventeen point lead in Illinois, a fifteen point lead in California, a five point lead in New York, and a lead in New Jersey (with the exact number unknown), at the nadir of the Democratic Party, and when Humphrey was losing in all of those states. Of those states, Humphrey would ultimately only win in New York.
As for unionized voters, one might argue that McCarthy received too much support from them ITTL to be plausible, considering the complete lack of support they gave George McGovern in 1972. However, it was a recurring theme in McCarthy's career that he would defeat a primary or convention opponent backed by the unions, they would give him the cold shoulder, and then they eventually came around and supported him. Now, granted, McCarthy's presidential challenge was much more controversial than winning a Senate primary, but the AFL-CIO's ability to sway its own membership was smaller than one might think anyway. In a poll of AFL-CIO workers done by Public Opinion Surveys, Inc. in 1968, only twenty percent of respondents said they "almost always" supported the candidate endorsed by the union, and only half were able to correctly identify who the AFL-CIO had endorsed (Humphrey). Fifty-four percent of respondents said they only "sometimes" supported the candidate endorsed by the union, and a majority of all polled said that lower taxes were their number one concern. Considering that most of these unionized workers also fit into the suburban middle class demographic and McCarthy was promising lower taxes, even without the active support of the AFL-CIO it would seem he would have been able to win a clear majority of unionized workers, though likely to a lesser extent than Humphrey did. In fact, the AFL-CIO's effort for Humphrey was gargantuan, and they claimed to have spent tens of millions of dollar and registered four and a half million new voters on his behalf. ITTL, the AFL-CIO ultimately decided to support McCarthy, but assuming they did nothing to help, and organized union support for McCarthy was limited to the United Automobile Workers and the Teamsters, McCarthy could have feasibly lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Alaska, but he still would have narrowly won the election:
View attachment 569398
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 275
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 199 (minus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 64 (plus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
Given all of these considerations, I conclude that in the very, very unlikely prospect that McCarthy gained the Democratic nomination, as this TL explores, it would have been nearly impossible for him to lose to Nixon unless he somehow managed to completely ostracize his suburban middle class base and the emotionally-driven McCarthy-to-Wallace voters. In fact, McCarthy's election would have been very much in spite of himself, as he was a very lackadaisical campaigner, and his popularity was mostly self-perpetuating through his supporters and through his almost universally positive media coverage. If McCarthy had (completely uncharacteristically) campaigned hard, encouraged Nixon/Wallace vote splitting in the South, and went out of his way to cultivate both traditionally Democratic and traditionally Republican demographics, he could have attained a victory similar to the following:
View attachment 569401
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 380
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 102 (minus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 56 (plus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
Now, all this is not to say that McCarthy would have been unbeatable if he had been the Democratic nominee. Much in the same way that Richard Nixon was vulnerable to McCarthy's strengths and ignorant to his weaknesses, the opposite was true of Nelson Rockefeller. Rockefeller was a candidate who did go out of his way to try and win over black and unionized voters, had a greater popularity among the suburban middle class than Nixon (but still lost to McCarthy in that demographic), was a dynamic campaigner, and frequently polled as the most popular presidential contender for the Republicans. Also, practically all of the Democratic Party's leadership would have preferred to lose to Rockefeller than win with McCarthy, and there would have been a mutiny similar to the one that faced Goldwater in 1964 amongst moderate Republicans. Ironically, in a McCarthy v. Rockefeller v. Wallace race, McCarthy would have been the main beneficiary of Southern voters trying to stop Rockefeller from becoming president by not voting for Wallace, which would lead to a bizarre election akin to the following:
View attachment 569421
Nelson Rockefeller/Robert Griffin - Republican - EV 293
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 206
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 39
Down-Ballot: The House
Speaker of the House: John William McCormack
House Democrats: Carl Albert - 257 Seats - 9 Seats Gained
House Republicans: Gerald Ford - 187 - 9 Seats Lost
The elections in the House of Representatives were largely inconclusive. Despite Republicans hoping for massive gains in the Midatlantic and Midwest, no significant movement was made toward either party. However, the Democrats did surprisingly make mild gains, usually in districts where McCarthy was particularly popular. The following are some notable House races:
Down-Ballot: The Senate
View attachment 569431
President Pro Tempore: Carl Hayden
Senate Democrats: Mike Mansfield - 61 Seats - Lost 2
Senate Republicans: Everett Dirksen - 39 Seats - Gained 2
With many pundits were expecting significant Republicans gains in the Senate, the results were similarly inconclusive as those in the House. Despite the Republican technically making gains, they lost both their Minority Leader and Minority Whip in a devastating display for their Senate leadership.
Down-Ballot: The Gubernatorial Races
View attachment 569803
National Governors' Association Chair: Buford Ellington
Republican Governors' Association: Ronald Reagan - 27 Governorships - Gained 1
Democratic Governors' Association: Robert McNair - 23 Governorships - Lost 1
With the presidency, and both houses of Congress under the control of the Democrats, the only area where Republicans held a majority were the various governorships of the United States. Like the congressional elections, the year's gubernatorial elections were characterized by the minimal changes made by voters.
Presidential Election Results
View attachment 569380
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 345
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 128 (minus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 64 (plus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
Richard Nixon's campaign strategy was almost perfectly designed to lose to Eugene McCarthy. Building his candidacy around being as inoffensive as possible, Nixon hoped to carry the election on the support of the suburban middle class, and general distaste for the incumbent Democratic administration, while at the same time conceding traditional Democratic demographics without any particular effort to try and win them over. It is worth noting that this strategy was nearly identical to Thomas Dewey's in 1948, where he famously lost in President Truman's upset victory. The reason that Nixon won with the same strategy that Dewey lost with is because the suburban middle class dramatically expanded in size between 1948 and 1968, and, even then, Nixon's victory was incredibly narrow. The reason this strategy was especially weak to McCarthy was that it relied entirely on the suburban middle class to carry the day, and that was McCarthy single strongest demographic. McCarthy had a twelve point lead over Nixon with middle class suburban voters on the low end, and on the high end of polling had an astounding twenty point lead in a traditionally Republican demographic. IOTL, outside of the South, the only demographics that Nixon won were high income urban voters (sixty-three percent to Humphrey's twenty-nine percent to Wallace's five percent), middle income urban voters (forty-four percent to Humphrey's close forty-three percent, to Wallace's thirteen percent), and rural voters of all income (forty-six percent to Humphrey's thirty-three percent to Wallace's twenty-one percent). Taking this data into account, the suburban middle class vote ITTL's election using the low point of McCarthy's suburban middle class polling, would have been around fifty-six percent for McCarthy, thirty-three percent for Nixon, and eleven percent for Wallace, in an election that was decided by this very demographic. Likewise, by ignoring traditional Democratic demographics, Nixon was ignoring McCarthy's weakest demographics, who could have been convinced to vote for a Republican in the highest numbers in decades, which could have made up the difference in McCarthy's suburban strength. Having made in-depth plans since 1966 to finally become president, both IOTL and ITTL, Nixon seemed incapable of dramatically changing tactics as he would have had to to beat McCarthy. Similarly, Nixon would have been unable to take a strongly hawkish position to challenge McCarthy without isolating the suburban middle class voters he was relying on to win.
McCarthy also had significant cross over appeal from potential Wallace voters. Wallace was the second choice of sixteen percent of McCarthy's voters in the Democratic primaries, which accounted for around five hundred thousand Wallace votes, mostly in the Midwest, during the general election. When most of these McCarthy-to-Wallace voters were asked why they would make such a dramatic ideological shift, most of them cited emotional rather than policy reasons for supporting the candidates; when asked why they supported McCarthy, many cited his personal traits, such as 'bravery' or 'honesty,' and felt that Wallace best embodied these traits after McCarthy. However, like IOTL, Wallace did not change the outcome of the election. ITTL, Wallace carried Tennessee and South Carolina not because of anything he was doing himself, but because Southern conservative voters were not afraid of McCarthy like they were of Humphrey. Nixon's anti-Wallace effort in the South was based around generally agreeing with Wallace but claiming that a vote for Wallace was a wasted vote that risked Humphrey winning. This argument is less potent with McCarthy as the Democratic nominee. To give you an idea of right wing voters not being afraid of McCarthy, around an eighth of McCarthy's small dollar donations came from self-identified Barry Goldwater voters. Because of this lack of fear, several states that would have otherwise gone for Nixon went to McCarthy, with more conservatives being willing to vote for Wallace. The McCarthy states that Wallace cost Nixon ITTL were Missouri, Kentucky, Alaska, and Texas.
If Wallace had not been a candidate ITTL's election, the results would have looked something like this:
View attachment 569386
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 296
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 242
In the end, even without Wallace, McCarthy's broad suburban support and large personal following in several key states would carry the day. These pro-McCarthy key states were determined by the pollster John Kraft, when comparing McCarthy's percentages to Nixon's around the time of the Democratic National Convention. Compared to Nixon, McCarthy had a twenty point lead in Oregon, a seventeen point lead in Illinois, a fifteen point lead in California, a five point lead in New York, and a lead in New Jersey (with the exact number unknown), at the nadir of the Democratic Party, and when Humphrey was losing in all of those states. Of those states, Humphrey would ultimately only win in New York.
As for unionized voters, one might argue that McCarthy received too much support from them ITTL to be plausible, considering the complete lack of support they gave George McGovern in 1972. However, it was a recurring theme in McCarthy's career that he would defeat a primary or convention opponent backed by the unions, they would give him the cold shoulder, and then they eventually came around and supported him. Now, granted, McCarthy's presidential challenge was much more controversial than winning a Senate primary, but the AFL-CIO's ability to sway its own membership was smaller than one might think anyway. In a poll of AFL-CIO workers done by Public Opinion Surveys, Inc. in 1968, only twenty percent of respondents said they "almost always" supported the candidate endorsed by the union, and only half were able to correctly identify who the AFL-CIO had endorsed (Humphrey). Fifty-four percent of respondents said they only "sometimes" supported the candidate endorsed by the union, and a majority of all polled said that lower taxes were their number one concern. Considering that most of these unionized workers also fit into the suburban middle class demographic and McCarthy was promising lower taxes, even without the active support of the AFL-CIO it would seem he would have been able to win a clear majority of unionized workers, though likely to a lesser extent than Humphrey did. In fact, the AFL-CIO's effort for Humphrey was gargantuan, and they claimed to have spent tens of millions of dollar and registered four and a half million new voters on his behalf. ITTL, the AFL-CIO ultimately decided to support McCarthy, but assuming they did nothing to help, and organized union support for McCarthy was limited to the United Automobile Workers and the Teamsters, McCarthy could have feasibly lost Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Alaska, but he still would have narrowly won the election:
View attachment 569398
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 275
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 199 (minus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 64 (plus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
Given all of these considerations, I conclude that in the very, very unlikely prospect that McCarthy gained the Democratic nomination, as this TL explores, it would have been nearly impossible for him to lose to Nixon unless he somehow managed to completely ostracize his suburban middle class base and the emotionally-driven McCarthy-to-Wallace voters. In fact, McCarthy's election would have been very much in spite of himself, as he was a very lackadaisical campaigner, and his popularity was mostly self-perpetuating through his supporters and through his almost universally positive media coverage. If McCarthy had (completely uncharacteristically) campaigned hard, encouraged Nixon/Wallace vote splitting in the South, and went out of his way to cultivate both traditionally Democratic and traditionally Republican demographics, he could have attained a victory similar to the following:
View attachment 569401
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 380
Richard Nixon/Spiro Agnew - Republican - EV 102 (minus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 56 (plus one faithless elector from North Carolina)
Now, all this is not to say that McCarthy would have been unbeatable if he had been the Democratic nominee. Much in the same way that Richard Nixon was vulnerable to McCarthy's strengths and ignorant to his weaknesses, the opposite was true of Nelson Rockefeller. Rockefeller was a candidate who did go out of his way to try and win over black and unionized voters, had a greater popularity among the suburban middle class than Nixon (but still lost to McCarthy in that demographic), was a dynamic campaigner, and frequently polled as the most popular presidential contender for the Republicans. Also, practically all of the Democratic Party's leadership would have preferred to lose to Rockefeller than win with McCarthy, and there would have been a mutiny similar to the one that faced Goldwater in 1964 amongst moderate Republicans. Ironically, in a McCarthy v. Rockefeller v. Wallace race, McCarthy would have been the main beneficiary of Southern voters trying to stop Rockefeller from becoming president by not voting for Wallace, which would lead to a bizarre election akin to the following:
View attachment 569421
Nelson Rockefeller/Robert Griffin - Republican - EV 293
Eugene McCarthy/John Connally - Democratic - EV 206
George Wallace/Harland Sanders - American Independent - EV 39
Down-Ballot: The House
Speaker of the House: John William McCormack
House Democrats: Carl Albert - 257 Seats - 9 Seats Gained
House Republicans: Gerald Ford - 187 - 9 Seats Lost
The elections in the House of Representatives were largely inconclusive. Despite Republicans hoping for massive gains in the Midatlantic and Midwest, no significant movement was made toward either party. However, the Democrats did surprisingly make mild gains, usually in districts where McCarthy was particularly popular. The following are some notable House races:
California 29: George Brown Jr. narrowly won re-election, after completely tying his political hopes and aspirations to the President-elect. Brown is perhaps the most personally loyal congressman to McCarthy.
Connecticut 4: Located in a suburban swing district, the incumbent Donald Irwin barely defeated his Republican challenger, Lowell Weicker.
New Hampshire 2: David C. Hoeh, the co-leader of McCarthy's efforts in New Hampshire, was absolutely trounced by the incumbent Republican, James Colgate Cleveland.
New York 5: In a narrow victory, Allard Lowenstein, the mastermind of the Dump Johnson movement, was elected to the House. Now considered a political prophet, Lowenstein still remains estranged from McCarthy after their early disagreements on how he should have run in the Democratic primaries.
New York 12: A freshly created district, New York 12 has elected Shirley Chisolm, the first black woman in congressional history. She handily defeated James Farmer, a leader of the Civil Rights Movement who ran on a Liberal-Republican fusion ticket.
New York 17: Making his way into office thanks to a third party Conservative bid splitting the Republican vote, Democrat Ed Koch ran as "just a plain liberal" who supported international and domestic human rights and opposed the Vietnam War. While not as outwardly supportive of him as others, Koch is generally considered to be a McCarthy Democrat.
New York 27: In something of an upset, John G. Dow managed to squeak his way into re-election thanks to McCarthy's popularity in New York. An early critic of the Vietnam War, Dow was a delegate at the Democratic National Convention and cast his vote for McCarthy.
Connecticut 4: Located in a suburban swing district, the incumbent Donald Irwin barely defeated his Republican challenger, Lowell Weicker.
New Hampshire 2: David C. Hoeh, the co-leader of McCarthy's efforts in New Hampshire, was absolutely trounced by the incumbent Republican, James Colgate Cleveland.
New York 5: In a narrow victory, Allard Lowenstein, the mastermind of the Dump Johnson movement, was elected to the House. Now considered a political prophet, Lowenstein still remains estranged from McCarthy after their early disagreements on how he should have run in the Democratic primaries.
New York 12: A freshly created district, New York 12 has elected Shirley Chisolm, the first black woman in congressional history. She handily defeated James Farmer, a leader of the Civil Rights Movement who ran on a Liberal-Republican fusion ticket.
New York 17: Making his way into office thanks to a third party Conservative bid splitting the Republican vote, Democrat Ed Koch ran as "just a plain liberal" who supported international and domestic human rights and opposed the Vietnam War. While not as outwardly supportive of him as others, Koch is generally considered to be a McCarthy Democrat.
New York 27: In something of an upset, John G. Dow managed to squeak his way into re-election thanks to McCarthy's popularity in New York. An early critic of the Vietnam War, Dow was a delegate at the Democratic National Convention and cast his vote for McCarthy.
Down-Ballot: The Senate
View attachment 569431
President Pro Tempore: Carl Hayden
Senate Democrats: Mike Mansfield - 61 Seats - Lost 2
Senate Republicans: Everett Dirksen - 39 Seats - Gained 2
With many pundits were expecting significant Republicans gains in the Senate, the results were similarly inconclusive as those in the House. Despite the Republican technically making gains, they lost both their Minority Leader and Minority Whip in a devastating display for their Senate leadership.
Alabama: The retiring J. Lister Hill is succeeded by fellow Democrat James Allen, an ally of George Wallace.
Alaska: Incumbent pro-McCarthy Senator Ernest Gruening was defeated in the Democratic primary by Mike Gravel, a further left McCarthy supporter who portrayed himself in the primaries as a hawkish moderate. Gruening launched a write-in campaign with strong support from McCarthy, resulting in a split Democratic vote and a victory for conservative Republican Elmer Rasmuson.
Arizona: In a fight for the seat of retiring President Pro Tempore Carl Hayden, Barry Goldwater is easily elected after having left office to campaign for president in 1964.
Arkansas: The dovish Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, J. William Fulbright, is easily re-elected, despite his endorsement of McCarthy, and the state voting for Wallace on the presidential level.
California: The incumbent moderate Republican Thomas Kuchel, who also served as Senate Minority Whip, was defeated in a primary challenge by the conservative Max Rafferty. McCarthy ally Alan Cranston narrowly defeated Rafferty in the general election.
Colorado: The incumbent conservative Republican Peter Dominick is easily re-elected.
Connecticut: Despite opposition from the Connecticut Democratic Party, McCarthy ally Abraham Ribicoff is re-elected, remarking, "They need me more than I need them."
Florida: With the incumbent George Smathers retiring, the Republican challenger Edward Gurney successfully used racebaiting to defeat his more moderate opponent, former Governor LeRoy Collins. Gurney's victory represent's Florida's gradual drift to the Republican Party.
Georgia: Senator Herman Talmadge is re-elected in a landslide. Entering his third term, it was the first time he did not run unopposed. Talmadge and McCarthy have a notable mutual distaste for each other.
Hawaii: The keynote speaker of the Democratic National Convention, Daniel Inouye, is re-elected in a landslide.
Idaho: Dovish and liberal Democrat Frank Church wins re-election by emphasizing his experience in the Senate. The ambitious Church regrets not accepting Lowenstein's offer to dump Johnson more than anyone else. Church's son, Forrest, is friends with Michael McCarthy, the son of the President-elect.
Illinois: In an upset victory, Senate Minority Leader Everett Dirksen is defeated by his Democratic challenger, William Clark. Clark was one of the principle authors of the peace plank at the Democratic National Convention, and benefited from McCarthy's notable popularity in the state. Dirksen's defeat is a disaster for Senate Republicans, as it leaves both the position of Minority Leader and Minority Whip vacant in the coming congressional session.
Indiana: The incumbent McCarthy-skeptic Democrat Birch Bayh narrowly defeats his Republican challenger, William Ruckleshaus. Bayh supported Bobby Kennedy in the Indiana primary.
Iowa: Governor Harold Hughes, who nominated McCarthy at the Democratic National Convention, is narrowly elected himself to the Senate.
Kansas: The retiring Frank Carlson, a favourite son candidate at the Republican National Convention, is easily succeeded by fellow Republican Bob Dole.
Kentucky: In another upset, Katherine Peden, is narrowly elected as the new Senator for Kentucky. Peden was the only woman on the Kerner Commission which wrote the Kerner Report, the centerpiece of McCarthy's domestic policy. Despite not being particularly close to the President-elect, Peden benefited from higher-than-usual turnout from suburban areas that also threw him the state.
Louisiana: The son of the infamous Huey Long and the Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, Russell Long wins re-election unopposed.
Maryland: Running the kind of campaign that Nixon did not, the liberal Republican Charles Mathias sought out traditional Democratic demographics among black and unionized voters to defeat the Democratic incumbent, Daniel Brewster. Also present was George Mahoney, running as the gubernatorial candidate for Wallace's American Independent Party. Mahoney had previously run as governor as a segregationist Democrat, but had been defeated by Spiro Agnew, who is returning to the governor's mansion.
Missouri: Succeeding the retiring Democratic incumbent Edward Long, the young McCarthy supporter Thomas Eagleton narrowly defeated his Republican challenger, Thomas Curtis.
Nevada: Democrat Alan Bible wins re-election by a surprisingly close margin.
New Hampshire: Republican Norris Cotton easily defeats his Democratic challenger, Governor John King. King, one of the leaders of President Johnson's campaign in the New Hampshire primary, was deprived of support from McCarthy Democrats in the state.
New York: Despite the best efforts of McCarthy, his protege, Paul O'Dwyer, is defeated by the popular incumbent liberal Republican Jacob Javits. James Buckley also appeared on the ballot as the candidate of the third party Conservatives.
North Carolina: Sam Ervin easily brushes aside his Republican challenger to win re-election.
North Dakota: Old school conservative Republican Milton Young returns to the Senate once again.
Ohio: In a close-fought race, McCarthy Democrat John Gilligan narrowly defeats his opponent, the moderate William Saxbe. Gilligan's victory is attributed to McCarthy's coattails, and the reluctant support of the unions after they had opposed his nomination in the Democratic primaries.
Oklahoma: The old liberal Stevensonian Mike Monroney is defeated for a fourth term by Henry Bellmon, despite an appearance by McCarthy.
Oregon: One of two Senators to oppose the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, Democrat Wayne Morse is re-elected to the Senate by a sliver due to McCarthy's huge popularity. The election was no such much about the Vietnam War as it was about Morse's drifting political allegiances, having started as a Republican, then having left the party to caucus as an independent, then eventually joining the Democratic Party, only to later endorse Republican Mark Hatfield for Oregon's other Senate seat.
Pennsylvania: Despite McCarthy's best efforts, leading dove Joseph Clark is narrowly defeated by his Republican challenger, Richard Schweiker, who was mostly critical of Clark's support for gun control.
South Carolina: Conservative Democrat Ernest 'Fritz' Hollings is easily elected to his first full term.
South Dakota: Liberal stalwart George McGovern is re-elected fairly easily despite expecting a tough challenge. McGovern had been the one to suggest McCarthy to the Dump Johnson movement, and now at least partially regrets it.
Utah: Monetary expert and conservative Republican Wallace Bennett is narrowly re-elected.
Vermont: Elected as a liberal Republican during the Franklin Roosevelt Administration, George Aikin is elected to his sixth term unopposed.
Washington: The Humphrey-supporting senior Democrat Warren Magnuson wins yet another term.
Wisconsin: Dovish Democrat and environmental champion Gaylord Nelson wins re-election.
Alaska: Incumbent pro-McCarthy Senator Ernest Gruening was defeated in the Democratic primary by Mike Gravel, a further left McCarthy supporter who portrayed himself in the primaries as a hawkish moderate. Gruening launched a write-in campaign with strong support from McCarthy, resulting in a split Democratic vote and a victory for conservative Republican Elmer Rasmuson.
Arizona: In a fight for the seat of retiring President Pro Tempore Carl Hayden, Barry Goldwater is easily elected after having left office to campaign for president in 1964.
Arkansas: The dovish Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, J. William Fulbright, is easily re-elected, despite his endorsement of McCarthy, and the state voting for Wallace on the presidential level.
California: The incumbent moderate Republican Thomas Kuchel, who also served as Senate Minority Whip, was defeated in a primary challenge by the conservative Max Rafferty. McCarthy ally Alan Cranston narrowly defeated Rafferty in the general election.
Colorado: The incumbent conservative Republican Peter Dominick is easily re-elected.
Connecticut: Despite opposition from the Connecticut Democratic Party, McCarthy ally Abraham Ribicoff is re-elected, remarking, "They need me more than I need them."
Florida: With the incumbent George Smathers retiring, the Republican challenger Edward Gurney successfully used racebaiting to defeat his more moderate opponent, former Governor LeRoy Collins. Gurney's victory represent's Florida's gradual drift to the Republican Party.
Georgia: Senator Herman Talmadge is re-elected in a landslide. Entering his third term, it was the first time he did not run unopposed. Talmadge and McCarthy have a notable mutual distaste for each other.
Hawaii: The keynote speaker of the Democratic National Convention, Daniel Inouye, is re-elected in a landslide.
Idaho: Dovish and liberal Democrat Frank Church wins re-election by emphasizing his experience in the Senate. The ambitious Church regrets not accepting Lowenstein's offer to dump Johnson more than anyone else. Church's son, Forrest, is friends with Michael McCarthy, the son of the President-elect.
Illinois: In an upset victory, Senate Minority Leader Everett Dirksen is defeated by his Democratic challenger, William Clark. Clark was one of the principle authors of the peace plank at the Democratic National Convention, and benefited from McCarthy's notable popularity in the state. Dirksen's defeat is a disaster for Senate Republicans, as it leaves both the position of Minority Leader and Minority Whip vacant in the coming congressional session.
Indiana: The incumbent McCarthy-skeptic Democrat Birch Bayh narrowly defeats his Republican challenger, William Ruckleshaus. Bayh supported Bobby Kennedy in the Indiana primary.
Iowa: Governor Harold Hughes, who nominated McCarthy at the Democratic National Convention, is narrowly elected himself to the Senate.
Kansas: The retiring Frank Carlson, a favourite son candidate at the Republican National Convention, is easily succeeded by fellow Republican Bob Dole.
Kentucky: In another upset, Katherine Peden, is narrowly elected as the new Senator for Kentucky. Peden was the only woman on the Kerner Commission which wrote the Kerner Report, the centerpiece of McCarthy's domestic policy. Despite not being particularly close to the President-elect, Peden benefited from higher-than-usual turnout from suburban areas that also threw him the state.
Louisiana: The son of the infamous Huey Long and the Chair of the Senate Finance Committee, Russell Long wins re-election unopposed.
Maryland: Running the kind of campaign that Nixon did not, the liberal Republican Charles Mathias sought out traditional Democratic demographics among black and unionized voters to defeat the Democratic incumbent, Daniel Brewster. Also present was George Mahoney, running as the gubernatorial candidate for Wallace's American Independent Party. Mahoney had previously run as governor as a segregationist Democrat, but had been defeated by Spiro Agnew, who is returning to the governor's mansion.
Missouri: Succeeding the retiring Democratic incumbent Edward Long, the young McCarthy supporter Thomas Eagleton narrowly defeated his Republican challenger, Thomas Curtis.
Nevada: Democrat Alan Bible wins re-election by a surprisingly close margin.
New Hampshire: Republican Norris Cotton easily defeats his Democratic challenger, Governor John King. King, one of the leaders of President Johnson's campaign in the New Hampshire primary, was deprived of support from McCarthy Democrats in the state.
New York: Despite the best efforts of McCarthy, his protege, Paul O'Dwyer, is defeated by the popular incumbent liberal Republican Jacob Javits. James Buckley also appeared on the ballot as the candidate of the third party Conservatives.
North Carolina: Sam Ervin easily brushes aside his Republican challenger to win re-election.
North Dakota: Old school conservative Republican Milton Young returns to the Senate once again.
Ohio: In a close-fought race, McCarthy Democrat John Gilligan narrowly defeats his opponent, the moderate William Saxbe. Gilligan's victory is attributed to McCarthy's coattails, and the reluctant support of the unions after they had opposed his nomination in the Democratic primaries.
Oklahoma: The old liberal Stevensonian Mike Monroney is defeated for a fourth term by Henry Bellmon, despite an appearance by McCarthy.
Oregon: One of two Senators to oppose the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, Democrat Wayne Morse is re-elected to the Senate by a sliver due to McCarthy's huge popularity. The election was no such much about the Vietnam War as it was about Morse's drifting political allegiances, having started as a Republican, then having left the party to caucus as an independent, then eventually joining the Democratic Party, only to later endorse Republican Mark Hatfield for Oregon's other Senate seat.
Pennsylvania: Despite McCarthy's best efforts, leading dove Joseph Clark is narrowly defeated by his Republican challenger, Richard Schweiker, who was mostly critical of Clark's support for gun control.
South Carolina: Conservative Democrat Ernest 'Fritz' Hollings is easily elected to his first full term.
South Dakota: Liberal stalwart George McGovern is re-elected fairly easily despite expecting a tough challenge. McGovern had been the one to suggest McCarthy to the Dump Johnson movement, and now at least partially regrets it.
Utah: Monetary expert and conservative Republican Wallace Bennett is narrowly re-elected.
Vermont: Elected as a liberal Republican during the Franklin Roosevelt Administration, George Aikin is elected to his sixth term unopposed.
Washington: The Humphrey-supporting senior Democrat Warren Magnuson wins yet another term.
Wisconsin: Dovish Democrat and environmental champion Gaylord Nelson wins re-election.
Down-Ballot: The Gubernatorial Races
View attachment 569803
National Governors' Association Chair: Buford Ellington
Republican Governors' Association: Ronald Reagan - 27 Governorships - Gained 1
Democratic Governors' Association: Robert McNair - 23 Governorships - Lost 1
With the presidency, and both houses of Congress under the control of the Democrats, the only area where Republicans held a majority were the various governorships of the United States. Like the congressional elections, the year's gubernatorial elections were characterized by the minimal changes made by voters.
Arizona: The one-eyed, low profile Governor of Arizona, Jack Williams, won re-election in a re-match against his former opponent, Democrat Samuel Pearson Goddard Jr.
Arkansas: In an alliance of Republicans and liberal Democrats, Winthrop Rockefeller, the brother of fellow governor Nelson Rockefeller, narrowly won re-election. Rockefeller defeated Democrat Marion Crank, an ally of the segregationist former governor Orval Faubus.
Delaware: Democrat Charles L. Terry Jr., famous both for his anti-corruption measures and his frequent use of the national guard to quell protests and riots, won re-election by the skin of his teeth in what was supposed to be a Republican sweep in Delaware.
Illinois: In a bizarre alliance of McCarthy suburbanites and the Daley Chicago political machine, Samuel Shapiro wins the governorship in his own right after having served as Lieutenant Governor when the previous governor, Otto Kerner, resigned to serve on the Kerner Commission which bore his name.
Indiana: Republican Edgar Whitcomb was elected, defeating Robert Rock, who came from a rival political faction within the Indiana Democratic Party than the incumbent governor, Roger Branigin, who had run in the 1968 Indiana Democratic primary.
Iowa: Taking advantage of the popular governor Harold Hughes running for Senate, moderate Republican Robert Ray defeated his Democratic opponent fairly easily.
Kansas: Championing farmers and small business, incumbent Democrat Robert Docking was narrowly re-elected.
Missouri: Incumbent Democratic liberal Warren Hearnes won re-election by a decisive margin, with his Lieutenant Governor, Thomas Eagleton, going to the Senate.
Montana: Elected as the first Democrat in twenty years, Forrest H. Anderson defeated the Republican incumbent, Tim Babcock.
New Hampshire: With the incumbent governor, John King, not running for re-election, Republican Walter Peterson Jr. eked out a narrow victory.
New Mexico: In a nail-biter election, Democrat Fabian Chavez Jr. just managed to defeat the incumbent liberal Republican, David Cargo. Chavez had been a Kennedy supporter, and rallied enough support from the state's McCarthy supporters, led by Sterling Black, to win out in the end.
North Carolina: Democratic Governor Dan Moore, a favourite son candidate at the Democratic National Convention, was succeeded by his Lieutenant Governor, Robert Scott.
North Dakota: The incumbent governor William Guy, of the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party, won re-election in large part due to his ability to encourage large federal projects to come to the state.
Rhode Island: In a close election, Democrat Frank Licht defeated incumbent John Chafee in an upset after Chafee called for the introduction of an income tax after railing against one for years.
South Dakota: Despite the best efforts of George McGovern to cultivate the Democratic Party in his state, Republican Frank Farrar easily won election.
Texas: Fending off a liberal primary challenge by Don Yarbourough, John Connally's ally, Preston Smith, won the Democratic nomination and the governorship.
Utah: Incumbent Democrat Cal Rampton easily won re-election.
Vermont: Retiring governor Philip Hoff had become the Chair of the Democratic National Committee but had become unpopular in his home state due to his liberal stances. He was succeeded by Republican Deane Davis.
Washington: Liberal Republican Daniel Evans won re-election, despite refusing to endorsing Richard Nixon and standing by Nelson Rockefeller following the Republican National Convention.
West Virginia: In one of the closest gubernatorial elections of the year, Democratic judge James Marshall Sprouse narrowly defeated his Republican challenger, Arch A. Moore Jr.
Wisconsin: Despite a spirited effort by McCarthy ally Bronson La Follette, incumbent governor Warren Knowles won re-election.
Arkansas: In an alliance of Republicans and liberal Democrats, Winthrop Rockefeller, the brother of fellow governor Nelson Rockefeller, narrowly won re-election. Rockefeller defeated Democrat Marion Crank, an ally of the segregationist former governor Orval Faubus.
Delaware: Democrat Charles L. Terry Jr., famous both for his anti-corruption measures and his frequent use of the national guard to quell protests and riots, won re-election by the skin of his teeth in what was supposed to be a Republican sweep in Delaware.
Illinois: In a bizarre alliance of McCarthy suburbanites and the Daley Chicago political machine, Samuel Shapiro wins the governorship in his own right after having served as Lieutenant Governor when the previous governor, Otto Kerner, resigned to serve on the Kerner Commission which bore his name.
Indiana: Republican Edgar Whitcomb was elected, defeating Robert Rock, who came from a rival political faction within the Indiana Democratic Party than the incumbent governor, Roger Branigin, who had run in the 1968 Indiana Democratic primary.
Iowa: Taking advantage of the popular governor Harold Hughes running for Senate, moderate Republican Robert Ray defeated his Democratic opponent fairly easily.
Kansas: Championing farmers and small business, incumbent Democrat Robert Docking was narrowly re-elected.
Missouri: Incumbent Democratic liberal Warren Hearnes won re-election by a decisive margin, with his Lieutenant Governor, Thomas Eagleton, going to the Senate.
Montana: Elected as the first Democrat in twenty years, Forrest H. Anderson defeated the Republican incumbent, Tim Babcock.
New Hampshire: With the incumbent governor, John King, not running for re-election, Republican Walter Peterson Jr. eked out a narrow victory.
New Mexico: In a nail-biter election, Democrat Fabian Chavez Jr. just managed to defeat the incumbent liberal Republican, David Cargo. Chavez had been a Kennedy supporter, and rallied enough support from the state's McCarthy supporters, led by Sterling Black, to win out in the end.
North Carolina: Democratic Governor Dan Moore, a favourite son candidate at the Democratic National Convention, was succeeded by his Lieutenant Governor, Robert Scott.
North Dakota: The incumbent governor William Guy, of the North Dakota Democratic-Nonpartisan League Party, won re-election in large part due to his ability to encourage large federal projects to come to the state.
Rhode Island: In a close election, Democrat Frank Licht defeated incumbent John Chafee in an upset after Chafee called for the introduction of an income tax after railing against one for years.
South Dakota: Despite the best efforts of George McGovern to cultivate the Democratic Party in his state, Republican Frank Farrar easily won election.
Texas: Fending off a liberal primary challenge by Don Yarbourough, John Connally's ally, Preston Smith, won the Democratic nomination and the governorship.
Utah: Incumbent Democrat Cal Rampton easily won re-election.
Vermont: Retiring governor Philip Hoff had become the Chair of the Democratic National Committee but had become unpopular in his home state due to his liberal stances. He was succeeded by Republican Deane Davis.
Washington: Liberal Republican Daniel Evans won re-election, despite refusing to endorsing Richard Nixon and standing by Nelson Rockefeller following the Republican National Convention.
West Virginia: In one of the closest gubernatorial elections of the year, Democratic judge James Marshall Sprouse narrowly defeated his Republican challenger, Arch A. Moore Jr.
Wisconsin: Despite a spirited effort by McCarthy ally Bronson La Follette, incumbent governor Warren Knowles won re-election.
- The Lethargic Lett
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