alternatehistory.com
The 1968 Party Conventions Results Breakdown
1968 Party Conventions Results Breakdown
The Republican Party
View attachment 565271
Richard Nixon - 1,679,443 (37.5%)
Nelson Rockefeller - 164,340 (3.7%)
Ronald Reagan - 1,696,632 (37.9%)
James Rhodes - 614,492 (13.7%)
The Republican primaries passed with little attention or fanfare next to the tumultuous battles of their Democratic counterparts [1]. Having been laying the groundwork for a second presidential bid since 1966, Richard Nixon emerged early on as the only declared candidate, besides Governor George Romney of Michigan. Romney was the choice of the party's moderate-liberal Eastern Establishment, and its leader, Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York. Rockefeller felt that a third presidential bid on his part would be unsuccessful, after a stillborn effort in 1960, and a bitter and ultimately unsuccessful primary battle against the ultraconservative Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964. However, by the sheer weight of his influence within the party, Rockefeller's endorsement of Romney both ensured that no other moderate-liberal candidate would run, and convinced many that Romney was nothing but a stalking horse for an inevitable Rockefeller candidacy. With Rockefeller seemingly waiting in the wings, the news media picked apart Romney's capabilities and policies, culminating in a flustered interview where Romney claimed he had been "brainwashed" into supporting the Vietnam War. His poor choice of words, along with an announcement from Rockefeller that he would accept a draft effort on his own behalf, led to Romney collapsing in the polls, and withdrawing before the primaries had even begun.
With no other announced candidate running against him, Nixon was able to run in most of the primaries unopposed. This played perfectly into his strategy to remove his association with being a loser by sweeping the primaries, as well as his strategy to appear as inoffensive as possible. The only bumps in the road were a successful write-in effort that won Massachusetts for Rockefeller, and the pro-Rockefeller Governor James Rhodes of Ohio's uncontested victory in his home state. As the primaries continued, Rockefeller disillusioned many of his supporters by declaring he would unequivocally not be a candidate for president, despite giving several indicators that he was about to announce his candidacy. This last minute change of mind embarrassed many of Rockefeller's supporters who had staked their reputations on his imminent candidacy, leaving him with a diminished pool of supporters when he ultimately did announce his candidacy shortly before the Republican National Convention.
As the primaries began to reach their conclusion, Governor Ronald Reagan of California, the ideological successor to Barry Goldwater, tried to position himself as a presidential contender while officially sticking to his position as a favourite son candidate, but, with Nixon's victory in neighbouring Oregon, Reagan's chances of nomination seemed slim. However, on the votes of California alone, Reagan was able to win a plurality of the popular vote in the primaries. Despite this, Reagan and Rockefeller came to an agreement that they would try and steal Nixon delegates from the ideological right and left of the party respectively, in the hopes that they could deprive him of a first ballot victory. They both hoped that with the party centrist Nixon out of the way, it would be down to the two of them, where they could compete in a clear confrontation of conservatives and liberals to decide the party's fate. As part of this strategy, Rockefeller encouraged governors loyal to him to run as favourite son candidates whose states' delegates would be bound to vote for, in order to prevent Nixon from getting them.
View attachment 565276
Richard Nixon - 692
Nelson Rockefeller - 277
Ronald Reagan - 182
James Rhodes - 55
George Romney - 50
Clifford Case - 22
Frank Carlson - 20
Winthrop Rockefeller - 18
Hiram Fong - 14
Harold Stassen - 2
John Lindsay - 1
Needing six hundred and sixty-six and a half delegates to win the nomination, Nixon pulled off a narrow victory on the first ballot. The key to his success had been in the South. Nixon had allied with the Dixiecrat-turned-Republican Strom Thurmond to rally the South to his cause, despite the majority of Southern delegates being more inclined to Reagan. Nixon positioned himself as conservative enough to be acceptable, while also using fears of Rockefeller potentially getting the nomination to discourage defections to Reagan. The rest of his margin came from Midwestern states without a favourite son candidate or strong Rockefeller support, and in most of the western interior states. Fearing the crippling infighting that had destroyed them in 1964, many delegates were willing to settle for the known quantity and loyal party man that was Richard Nixon.
Continuing his strategy of being as inoffensive as possible to the largest portion of the American electorate as possible, Nixon considered a long list of vice presidential nominees. Those clearly on the right or left of the party, such as Reagan or Mayor John Lindsay of New York City were eliminated. Nixon would have liked Lieutenant Governor Robert Finch of California, one of his closest friends and advisors, but Finch believed he did not have the profile for the vice presidency and that his selection would appear to be a case of nepotism, and removed himself from consideration. The final two contestants were Governor John Volpe of Massachusetts, and Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland. Volpe was a Republican of the Eastern Establishment who was not clearly aligned with Rockefeller, but many Southern delegates were wary of him as being too liberal, so Nixon ultimately settled on Agnew. The Governor of Maryland had been one of those who had stacked his reputation on Rockefeller's announcement of his candidacy, and his incorrect prediction of Rockefeller's imminent announcement deeply embarrassed him in front of the media; Rockefeller had failed to notify Agnew that he had changed his mind, and Agnew had brought several reporters into his office to watch the announcement with him, expecting a positive declaration. Courted by Nixon afterward, Agnew had been able to shift most of Maryland's delegates in the former Vice President's favour, helping to guarantee his nomination. With a non-existent national profile and a moderate reputation, Nixon was content in the belief that Agnew would continue to be a non-entity on the national ticket, in order to sustain his 'inoffensive offensive.'
The Democratic Party
View attachment 565299
Eugene McCarthy - 3,217,594 (42.2%)
Robert Kennedy - 2,263,385 (29.7%)
Lyndon Johnson - 383,590 (5.0%)
Stephen Young - 549,140 (7.2%)
George Smathers - 236,242 (3.1%)
At first, Eugene McCarthy's decision to run in the Democratic primaries was a protest action against President Lyndon Johnson and the Vietnam War. Nearing the end of his political career and with no one, not even Johnson's nemesis Bobby Kennedy, willing to run against the President, McCarthy decided to do it himself. With little expectation of actually winning, McCarthy intended to spook the President into adopting a less hawkish position as the official plank of the upcoming Democratic National Convention. However, even McCarthy had underestimated the level of discontent that Johnson was facing. With the Tet Offensive undermining popular support for the Vietnam War, McCarthy was able to win a near-victory in the New Hampshire primary, with Bobby Kennedy entering the contest shortly after. Facing a bitter primary challenge and failing health, Johnson announced to a shocked nation that he would not seek, and would not accept his party's nomination for president. With Johnson stepping down, his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, declares his candidacy as well, but chose not to compete in the primaries.
McCarthy enjoyed a grace period where he ran unopposed in Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania, before facing off against Kennedy in the Indiana primary. Chronically disorganized and failing to adapt to the changing political landscape, McCarthy placed third in Indiana behind Kennedy and the Governor of Indiana, Roger Branigin. McCarthy was similarly blown away in the Nebraska primary, before the candidates headed for the West Coast.
Hiring a new campaign coordinator, adopting populist rhetoric, and choosing the campaign theme of New Politics, McCarthy was able to lean into his strengths to win the Oregon primary, with Bobby suffering the first election defeat of a Kennedy in American political history. The final challenge came in California, with Kennedy declaring that he would withdraw his candidacy if he did not win in the the Golden State. In an intense period of campaigning, a debate between the two candidates went decisively in McCarthy's favour, winning him the primary. Shortly after declaring his withdrawal, Kennedy was shot several times by a would-be assassin named Sirhan Sirhan. In a near-death state, Kennedy endorsed McCarthy, uniting the anti-war faction of Democrats for the upcoming Democratic National Convention. Kennedy would eventually recover from his wounds, but a spinal injury from the shooting left him mostly paralyzed from the waist-down for the rest of his life.
In the non-primary states, McCarthy fared poorly against Humphrey, who had locked up enough delegates to theoretically win a commanding majority on the first ballot. However, Humphrey's refusal to support President Johnson's administration plank on the Vietnam War led to a quiet crumbling of his support of which McCarthy proved the benefactor.
View attachment 565318
Eugene McCarthy - >1311.5
Hubert Humphrey - <1311.5
Edward Kennedy - ≈180.25
Channing Phillips - ≈42.5
Daniel Moore - 19.5
James H. Gray Sr. - 16.5
George Wallace - 3
Abstain - 34
In one of the greatest upsets in American political history, Eugene McCarthy was able to secure the Democratic nomination on the first ballot [2], exceeding the required majority of one thousand three hundred eleven and a half votes. His success was due to an agreement that had been reached with Governor John Connally of Texas, the leader of the Southern delegates. In exchange for the vote of the South, McCarthy agreed to choose Connally as his running mate, to continue Johnson's ongoing battle to appoint Abe Fortas and Homer Thornberry to the Supreme Court, to allow Connally a say over cabinet picks, and to not actively support future challenges by his grassroots supporters against the Democratic Establishment in the South. Ironically, of the Southern states, McCarthy did the poorest in those whose credentials had been successfully challenged by his supporters; in the new Mississippi delegation there was significant support for Humphrey, and in Georgia, many of the white delegates instead voted for favourite son James H. Gray Sr. McCarthy also lost a sizable minority of North Carolina's delegates to favourite son Daniel Moore. Otherwise, his decades-long working relationship with senior Southern Democratic officials, mixed with the conformist mentality of many delegates, handed him a unanimous vote in many states. Outside of the South, most of McCarthy's support came from the West Coast, New England, and New York, along with pockets of support in the Midwest and the western interior states.
In the weeks following their nomination, the McCarthy/Connally ticket struggled to gain cohesion due to their stark ideological differences.
[1] Everything involving the Republican primaries and convention of 1968 are the same as IOTL.
[2] Throughout all my research, I was not able to find the exact delegate count in the states after Pennsylvania (the state which, IOTL, put Humphrey over the top). Because of this, I am not able to give an exact number to McCarthy's delegate vote ITTL's first ballot. States which I had not been able to find the exact delegate count for have been left intentionally blank, with their colour indicating who won in that state.
The Republican Party
View attachment 565271
Richard Nixon - 1,679,443 (37.5%)
Nelson Rockefeller - 164,340 (3.7%)
Ronald Reagan - 1,696,632 (37.9%)
James Rhodes - 614,492 (13.7%)
The Republican primaries passed with little attention or fanfare next to the tumultuous battles of their Democratic counterparts [1]. Having been laying the groundwork for a second presidential bid since 1966, Richard Nixon emerged early on as the only declared candidate, besides Governor George Romney of Michigan. Romney was the choice of the party's moderate-liberal Eastern Establishment, and its leader, Governor Nelson Rockefeller of New York. Rockefeller felt that a third presidential bid on his part would be unsuccessful, after a stillborn effort in 1960, and a bitter and ultimately unsuccessful primary battle against the ultraconservative Senator Barry Goldwater in 1964. However, by the sheer weight of his influence within the party, Rockefeller's endorsement of Romney both ensured that no other moderate-liberal candidate would run, and convinced many that Romney was nothing but a stalking horse for an inevitable Rockefeller candidacy. With Rockefeller seemingly waiting in the wings, the news media picked apart Romney's capabilities and policies, culminating in a flustered interview where Romney claimed he had been "brainwashed" into supporting the Vietnam War. His poor choice of words, along with an announcement from Rockefeller that he would accept a draft effort on his own behalf, led to Romney collapsing in the polls, and withdrawing before the primaries had even begun.
With no other announced candidate running against him, Nixon was able to run in most of the primaries unopposed. This played perfectly into his strategy to remove his association with being a loser by sweeping the primaries, as well as his strategy to appear as inoffensive as possible. The only bumps in the road were a successful write-in effort that won Massachusetts for Rockefeller, and the pro-Rockefeller Governor James Rhodes of Ohio's uncontested victory in his home state. As the primaries continued, Rockefeller disillusioned many of his supporters by declaring he would unequivocally not be a candidate for president, despite giving several indicators that he was about to announce his candidacy. This last minute change of mind embarrassed many of Rockefeller's supporters who had staked their reputations on his imminent candidacy, leaving him with a diminished pool of supporters when he ultimately did announce his candidacy shortly before the Republican National Convention.
As the primaries began to reach their conclusion, Governor Ronald Reagan of California, the ideological successor to Barry Goldwater, tried to position himself as a presidential contender while officially sticking to his position as a favourite son candidate, but, with Nixon's victory in neighbouring Oregon, Reagan's chances of nomination seemed slim. However, on the votes of California alone, Reagan was able to win a plurality of the popular vote in the primaries. Despite this, Reagan and Rockefeller came to an agreement that they would try and steal Nixon delegates from the ideological right and left of the party respectively, in the hopes that they could deprive him of a first ballot victory. They both hoped that with the party centrist Nixon out of the way, it would be down to the two of them, where they could compete in a clear confrontation of conservatives and liberals to decide the party's fate. As part of this strategy, Rockefeller encouraged governors loyal to him to run as favourite son candidates whose states' delegates would be bound to vote for, in order to prevent Nixon from getting them.
View attachment 565276
Richard Nixon - 692
Nelson Rockefeller - 277
Ronald Reagan - 182
James Rhodes - 55
George Romney - 50
Clifford Case - 22
Frank Carlson - 20
Winthrop Rockefeller - 18
Hiram Fong - 14
Harold Stassen - 2
John Lindsay - 1
Needing six hundred and sixty-six and a half delegates to win the nomination, Nixon pulled off a narrow victory on the first ballot. The key to his success had been in the South. Nixon had allied with the Dixiecrat-turned-Republican Strom Thurmond to rally the South to his cause, despite the majority of Southern delegates being more inclined to Reagan. Nixon positioned himself as conservative enough to be acceptable, while also using fears of Rockefeller potentially getting the nomination to discourage defections to Reagan. The rest of his margin came from Midwestern states without a favourite son candidate or strong Rockefeller support, and in most of the western interior states. Fearing the crippling infighting that had destroyed them in 1964, many delegates were willing to settle for the known quantity and loyal party man that was Richard Nixon.
Continuing his strategy of being as inoffensive as possible to the largest portion of the American electorate as possible, Nixon considered a long list of vice presidential nominees. Those clearly on the right or left of the party, such as Reagan or Mayor John Lindsay of New York City were eliminated. Nixon would have liked Lieutenant Governor Robert Finch of California, one of his closest friends and advisors, but Finch believed he did not have the profile for the vice presidency and that his selection would appear to be a case of nepotism, and removed himself from consideration. The final two contestants were Governor John Volpe of Massachusetts, and Governor Spiro Agnew of Maryland. Volpe was a Republican of the Eastern Establishment who was not clearly aligned with Rockefeller, but many Southern delegates were wary of him as being too liberal, so Nixon ultimately settled on Agnew. The Governor of Maryland had been one of those who had stacked his reputation on Rockefeller's announcement of his candidacy, and his incorrect prediction of Rockefeller's imminent announcement deeply embarrassed him in front of the media; Rockefeller had failed to notify Agnew that he had changed his mind, and Agnew had brought several reporters into his office to watch the announcement with him, expecting a positive declaration. Courted by Nixon afterward, Agnew had been able to shift most of Maryland's delegates in the former Vice President's favour, helping to guarantee his nomination. With a non-existent national profile and a moderate reputation, Nixon was content in the belief that Agnew would continue to be a non-entity on the national ticket, in order to sustain his 'inoffensive offensive.'
The Democratic Party
View attachment 565299
Eugene McCarthy - 3,217,594 (42.2%)
Robert Kennedy - 2,263,385 (29.7%)
Lyndon Johnson - 383,590 (5.0%)
Stephen Young - 549,140 (7.2%)
George Smathers - 236,242 (3.1%)
At first, Eugene McCarthy's decision to run in the Democratic primaries was a protest action against President Lyndon Johnson and the Vietnam War. Nearing the end of his political career and with no one, not even Johnson's nemesis Bobby Kennedy, willing to run against the President, McCarthy decided to do it himself. With little expectation of actually winning, McCarthy intended to spook the President into adopting a less hawkish position as the official plank of the upcoming Democratic National Convention. However, even McCarthy had underestimated the level of discontent that Johnson was facing. With the Tet Offensive undermining popular support for the Vietnam War, McCarthy was able to win a near-victory in the New Hampshire primary, with Bobby Kennedy entering the contest shortly after. Facing a bitter primary challenge and failing health, Johnson announced to a shocked nation that he would not seek, and would not accept his party's nomination for president. With Johnson stepping down, his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, declares his candidacy as well, but chose not to compete in the primaries.
McCarthy enjoyed a grace period where he ran unopposed in Wisconsin, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania, before facing off against Kennedy in the Indiana primary. Chronically disorganized and failing to adapt to the changing political landscape, McCarthy placed third in Indiana behind Kennedy and the Governor of Indiana, Roger Branigin. McCarthy was similarly blown away in the Nebraska primary, before the candidates headed for the West Coast.
Hiring a new campaign coordinator, adopting populist rhetoric, and choosing the campaign theme of New Politics, McCarthy was able to lean into his strengths to win the Oregon primary, with Bobby suffering the first election defeat of a Kennedy in American political history. The final challenge came in California, with Kennedy declaring that he would withdraw his candidacy if he did not win in the the Golden State. In an intense period of campaigning, a debate between the two candidates went decisively in McCarthy's favour, winning him the primary. Shortly after declaring his withdrawal, Kennedy was shot several times by a would-be assassin named Sirhan Sirhan. In a near-death state, Kennedy endorsed McCarthy, uniting the anti-war faction of Democrats for the upcoming Democratic National Convention. Kennedy would eventually recover from his wounds, but a spinal injury from the shooting left him mostly paralyzed from the waist-down for the rest of his life.
In the non-primary states, McCarthy fared poorly against Humphrey, who had locked up enough delegates to theoretically win a commanding majority on the first ballot. However, Humphrey's refusal to support President Johnson's administration plank on the Vietnam War led to a quiet crumbling of his support of which McCarthy proved the benefactor.
View attachment 565318
Eugene McCarthy - >1311.5
Hubert Humphrey - <1311.5
Edward Kennedy - ≈180.25
Channing Phillips - ≈42.5
Daniel Moore - 19.5
James H. Gray Sr. - 16.5
George Wallace - 3
Abstain - 34
In one of the greatest upsets in American political history, Eugene McCarthy was able to secure the Democratic nomination on the first ballot [2], exceeding the required majority of one thousand three hundred eleven and a half votes. His success was due to an agreement that had been reached with Governor John Connally of Texas, the leader of the Southern delegates. In exchange for the vote of the South, McCarthy agreed to choose Connally as his running mate, to continue Johnson's ongoing battle to appoint Abe Fortas and Homer Thornberry to the Supreme Court, to allow Connally a say over cabinet picks, and to not actively support future challenges by his grassroots supporters against the Democratic Establishment in the South. Ironically, of the Southern states, McCarthy did the poorest in those whose credentials had been successfully challenged by his supporters; in the new Mississippi delegation there was significant support for Humphrey, and in Georgia, many of the white delegates instead voted for favourite son James H. Gray Sr. McCarthy also lost a sizable minority of North Carolina's delegates to favourite son Daniel Moore. Otherwise, his decades-long working relationship with senior Southern Democratic officials, mixed with the conformist mentality of many delegates, handed him a unanimous vote in many states. Outside of the South, most of McCarthy's support came from the West Coast, New England, and New York, along with pockets of support in the Midwest and the western interior states.
In the weeks following their nomination, the McCarthy/Connally ticket struggled to gain cohesion due to their stark ideological differences.
[1] Everything involving the Republican primaries and convention of 1968 are the same as IOTL.
[2] Throughout all my research, I was not able to find the exact delegate count in the states after Pennsylvania (the state which, IOTL, put Humphrey over the top). Because of this, I am not able to give an exact number to McCarthy's delegate vote ITTL's first ballot. States which I had not been able to find the exact delegate count for have been left intentionally blank, with their colour indicating who won in that state.
- The Lethargic Lett
- Word Count: 1.9k