The Arab Spring Part 2: The Iraqi-Syrian War
Iraq and Syria were unique nations. They were the last nations upholding the so-called Baathist ideology. However, rather than be allies, they are antagonistic, a relationship that has grown more bitter and angry over time. The United States had plans to deal with Iraq since the Gulf War from decades prior, but never enacted on it. There was no real
casus belli on it. However, the idea has died down if namely due to the criticisms lobbied at neoconservatives and to a lesser extent neoliberals for their attempts to try and persuade people for the war. That does not mean that a scenario to deal with Iraq was not on the table nor with Syria. Syria was Russia's primary contact within the Middle East and Iraq had long been the target of Iran. As such, plans were drawn up though still in the planning phase. Iran wanted the Shia Iraqis in their sphere of influence and the Americans would be willing to grant them though questions remained on Kurdistan and the Assyrians as well. This was a very complicated situation. Iran was anxious that the creation of a Kurdish state could resuilt in the Iranian Kurds wanting to seperate with the traditional Kurdish lands. On the other hand, the situations between the Iraqi and the Iranian Kurds were quite different. The Iranian Kurds had shared history and positive relations with Iran so they saw no reason to want to leave and preferred autonomy at most. The Iraqi Kurds on the other hand were pretty keen on statehood after the the brutal conflicts between them and Saddam and Kurdish autonomy was only maintained through American and British swords protecting them, with their civil rights growing restricted due to Saddam's growing paranoia. This left Sunni Iraq as one more thing to figure out. Iran agreed to the terms though noted the creation of Kurdistan would in all likelihood create trouble with Turkey.
According to some of the information leaked from Cablegate, Erdoğan was described by U.S. diplomats as having "little understanding of politics beyond Ankara" and as surrounding himself with an "iron ring of sycophantic (but contemptuous) advisors". He is said to be "isolated", and that his MPs and Ministers feel "fearful of Erdogan's wrath". Diplomats state that "he relies on his charisma, instincts, and the filterings of advisors who pull conspiracy theories off the web or are lost in
neo-Ottoman Islamist fantasies". This did not give much hope for the Americans on that front and they sure did not want to fight with Turkey. However, the economic problems in Turkey have been leading to greater tensions as of late, and trouble for the Erdoğan government, especially if he will be capable to help the Turkish economy.
However, Turkey dealing with their economic problems served as a convienent excuse for the Americans, though instead, they began stationing more forces at Israel, Palestine and Jordan, with them eyeing warily Syria and Iraq. They also wanted to limit the Sauds' movement in the area due to the growing revelations on the Sauds' connection with the 9/11 hijackers along with them spreading what has been deemed the "Westboro Baptism of Islam". Another issue was the Russians, being the main ally of Syria with their relations with Iran having grown more distant as a result of them moving to the US. Of course, this was more the Assad government than anyone else. However, the plans would come in handy when it all hit the fan.
Syria was affected by the Arab Spring unsurprisingly and while attempts at delaying and maintaining was held, not much else could be done. And so by May, the Syrian Civil War officially begun. With Russian in economic troubles, they did not lend much assistance, nor did they think they needed to. Everyone hoped peace could try and be achieved and the fighting would reach an end soon. However, it was not to be. In June, a few weeks into the civil war, Iraq declared war on Syria, citing the dangers of Syrian insurgents and dangers spilling into his nation. The Syrian forces attempted to try and unifying, but Iraq was better equipped and more-suited, with Saddam desperately hoping for a quick enough victory and it seemed to be going that way.
He was sorely mistaken.
When word got out, the Americans and their allies in the Middle East, including Iran, executed their operation to invade Iraq under the pretense of bringing stability as well as liberating the Kurds. Reception was mixed to say the least, but ample preparation time and the invasion from several sides allowed for a powerful advantage. Of course, their inclusion into the war led to the powderkeg exploding. Kurdish nationals flooded into Iraq. Despite the violence, by early August, Iraq had been defeated by the rise of Iraqi civilians, the coalition of American, Iranian and other allies triumphed over Saddam. The next few weeks and months would be devoted to administering the different regions and working to figure the best solution while dealing with Saddam loyalists and extremists. Of course, the fighting was far from over.
Iraq had done some significant damage to Syria in the few weeks Iraq could run rampant over in Syria and the forces remained became mercenaries or joined the various sides, forcing the coalition to further involve themselves in Syria, The Syrian Army got heavily injured and several groups began splintering, resulting in more effort being put in by the Coalition. The entire affair was bedlam yet the Coalition continuqed, especially as Jordan, Israel and Palestine closed in, working to try and secure the area. Assad himself would become assassinated by a suicide bomb attack by a supposed cabinet (some suspect with links over to a former member of Saddam's forces or religious extremists.) The Americans among many others like the Iranians, Jordanians, Israelis and Palestianians would spend more manpower and time into trying to bring order, especially as the Syrian Civil War dissolved into madness and looking to restore order. New organizations would spring up and it would be clear the stabilzing the region with a long term plan would be an option, especially as more and more of the Baathists would be retreating.
The Iraqi-Syrian War technically ended with the end of that summer with the fall of Iraq and the destabilization of Syria, but an official peace would not be signed for years until the new nations stablized. The war was marked with sorrow, with hope, with violence and with promise...
American involvement was viewed with various looks across the world though given Saddam's lack of reputation and Syria's pre-existing conditions, there was little anyone could actually complain though Russia's antagonism with the Americans grew further with Syria's collapse, but the economy was being very turbulent for them and the Americans have become wary of Putin designs... Calls of imperialism were shut down as the Americans had little to gain regarding resource and indeed, no oil fields or anything went to any companies or anything. Gore's eco legacy was too deep-rooted and the people too wary and on edge for them to try and anything. The war did serve to solidifying the growing relationship on Iran with the Americans as well as Israel, Palestine and Jordan. The Kurds and Assyrians were grateful for American assistance though it was right now a matter of resolving the issue on the various regions formed from the past failures of British and French imperialism. American intervention would serve as a much needed bost of confidence for the McCain Administration in that they were doing good though the judgement of what next remains...