What if Operation Unthinkable happened? What was the military and economic situation in 1945? While the Soviet economy is devastated, can Western public opinion handle such a war?
What if Operation Unthinkable happened?
- Thread starter Admiral Bloonbeard
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Much depends on when it happens. If war breaks out before the bulk of the US Army and Air Force has been withdrawn it's a whole different story than if it happens later.
How many atomic bombs could the US feasibly use before the USSR obtained one? A couple of hundred? Assuming it was a large number, would it be enough to stop the USSR developing any atomic bombs, or at least massively delaying their project?
Although it is surely beyond the realms of possibility (even more so than Unthinkable itself) that a couple of hundred Fat Men would be dropped on Eastern Europe and the USSR...isn't it?
Although it is surely beyond the realms of possibility (even more so than Unthinkable itself) that a couple of hundred Fat Men would be dropped on Eastern Europe and the USSR...isn't it?
No way the public opinions of the West can convinced and without them you can't get much of a war.
Previous versions of this discussion, if I remember correctly, have said 'the Western Allies attacking the Russians' version cannot happen, because the troops and will in the populations and political classes to do it are simply not there.
If Stalin decides to attack, and the subsequent defensive version has to be implemented, who knows what happens?
My own personal suspicion is Churchill ordered the operation contemplated for the benefit of Russian spies in the UK government and armed services - so that they could report to Stalin 'yeah: they've thought about attacking and turning on you over at least Poland, and concluded it simply won't work; they actually genuinely do want peace if you want it.'
I readily concede that this is a personal theory though, and that I have no evidence to support it.
If Stalin decides to attack, and the subsequent defensive version has to be implemented, who knows what happens?
My own personal suspicion is Churchill ordered the operation contemplated for the benefit of Russian spies in the UK government and armed services - so that they could report to Stalin 'yeah: they've thought about attacking and turning on you over at least Poland, and concluded it simply won't work; they actually genuinely do want peace if you want it.'
I readily concede that this is a personal theory though, and that I have no evidence to support it.
So this happens while the general election and war in the East is going on? Interesting.
Hundreds.
At least. Fisfteen or so by the end of 1945. More if the second MK1 is scrapped and the HEU used for implosion bombs.
Even more in 1946, probably fifty at a minimum. 80-100 is possible.
- More advanced MK3 MODs are developed, with better electronics, lens assemblies and higher yield.
- The fissile uranium stockpile is reprocessed into implosion cores, either pure HEU or composite
- Assembly line production of atomic weapons
- The development of an equivalent to the historical MK4 design
Yes. Any suspicious site would be bombed out of existence.
Lack of targets and (initially) lack of long ranged aircraft.
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The sitting president of the U.S. is voted out of office and his successor is forced by public outrage to negotiate a peace settlement.
The Soviet Union is massive. Do you really think that the Americans would be able to bypass Soviet aircraft and AA guns to deliver nuclear bombs wherever they want?
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Yes, pretty much. The USSR was, as you say a huge country, with huge borders and air defenses not optimised for high altitude bomber interception.
Initially I'd expect nuclear weapons to be used as was planned for Downfall; tactically and operationally in conjunction with conventional and probably CW bombing. With better aircraft coming on-stream deeper penetration raids would be tried.
I've been rather fascinated by what the Allied navies might be able to do against the Russians if they were given enough time. Have the US Army garrison Japan and fill it with Air Force planes and enough light ships to make sure the Russians can't cross to the Japanese islands. Meanwhile the main fleet and all those aircraft carriers and every Marine they can carry sail south, through the Indian Ocean, through the Suez Canal and then force the Turks to give them passage into the Black Sea. The Russians would probably send every plane they could lay their hands on against them, thinking they could sink all those ships so foolishly getting within range of land-based aircraft. And the Russians would lose every one of them. They had no experience attacking ships, but the ships had a lot of experience defending against land-based aircraft. Between fighters and proximity fused AA, the Red Air force ceases to exist in a week. Then the Marines land in Crimea and open up bomber bases and start dropping A-Bombs.
This was pre-IADS, when the Soviet Union was pretty regularly surveilled by foreign aircraft.
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You would need PoDs over the course of the war, up to and including directly hostile action by the Soviets, to get this into effect; Anglo-American war exhaustion by this point was very real.
Actually, the planned production rate was for 3 bombs per month starting in August, which was expected to rise to 5 bombs per month in November, and 7 bombs per month in December. In 1946, it could rise much higher.
So without ANY changes to production or design changes, that's 24 (3+3+3+3+5+7) by the end of 1945. In 1946, they could have produced over a hundred, easily.
The difficulty is that the United States has this war thingy underway with Imperial Japan, and some extensive plans for the use of those bombs in that connection...
Of course, if UNTHINKABLE does not kick off until after September 2, 1945, then things change in that regard. Of course, then the U.S. and Britain are in a worse position in Central Europe by that point, thanks to the withdrawal from the Elbe and the withdrawal of the bulk of American forces from Europe.
Disaster if i'm gonna be honest. Even if the Western allies emerge victorious, all of the Soviet Union is in chaos and suffering from unrest after defeat and the Western allies are unable to assert a "democratic" republic on the former defeated Soviet Union because its go big. Also, all of the Russians are gonna be pissed at the blatant aggression by the Western allies.
I guess it depends on WHY. If the USSR tries something (say a grab at all of Europe). Then you very well could see the US so upset that they would bomb them back to the Stone Age. As a second surprise attack, this time from an allied power that the US had been helping will be seen as a huge betrayal.
And the US very well may decide that all the bad guys and potential bad guys have to go.
This could get very very ugly very fast.
But as for the US and GB just deciding to howl off and attack the USSR? Not going to happen.
And the US very well may decide that all the bad guys and potential bad guys have to go.
This could get very very ugly very fast.
But as for the US and GB just deciding to howl off and attack the USSR? Not going to happen.