1940 - Japanese Navy declares war on Vichy France and Nazi Germany and occupies French Indochina and Polynesia

[RMcD94]

Japan cites Nazi Germany's threat to the international order and laments their ideological position that is against racial equality, bringing up the act that was rejected in the league of nations.

They do this some time after the fall of France, probably after Britain destroyed the French fleet.

How does the world react to this? Will the USA embargo Japan or declare war? What does Thailand do?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

That's an interesting development.

Have Japan offer to provide escorts and anti raider patrols in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific

Perhaps go one further and earn hard £ and political 'coin' by offering to build Freighters etc for the British

Interesting POD

Not sure if the USA will react as per OTL?

 

[HJ Tulp]

This will make a few heads spin in London and Washington, that's for sure. Japan would need to make some effort to avoid it from being seen as a ploy.

 

[MUC]

How much oil was in French Indochina and Polynesia? The principal problem of Japan remains: they need resources at some point.

 

[HJ Tulp]

How much oil was in French Indochina and Polynesia? The principal problem of Japan remains: they need resources at some point.

OTL they only needed oil because the US embargoed them. Before that they were focused on conquering China.

 

[Deleted member 83898]

OTL they only needed oil because the US embargoed them. Before that they were focused on conquering China.

If it came to it, could Japan rely entirely on oil from the DEI?

 

[HJ Tulp]

If it came to it, could Japan rely entirely on oil from the DEI?

In what construct? If Japan takes control of the DEI then their oil-needs are met yes. But if Japan has to buy it and it's assets in the US are frozen then they will run out of money eventually.

 

[MUC]

OTL they only needed oil because the US embargoed them. Before that they were focused on conquering China.

I am well aware of that. However I don't think that Japan would be comfortable without having a secure source of oil. The China campaign would still draw US consequences at some point and simply declaring war against the Axis is not a guarantee for a "free hand" in China without any consequences.

 

[General Tirpitz]

I am well aware of that. However I don't think that Japan would be comfortable without having a secure source of oil. The China campaign would still draw US consequences at some point and simply declaring war against the Axis is not a guarantee for a "free hand" in China without any consequences.

The US was adamant that it didn't want to get militarily involved in East Asian affairs, even after Japan occupied Indochina. At the time there was a great worry about the European War and Roosevelt didn't want to get tanngled in a war on other side of the globe. Even after the US and Japan started to their negotiations, it was initially Americans who wanted to exclude the war in China from those discussions and only focus on Indochina while Japanese insisted that they seek some sort of general solution in the region which would also include China. Although it is possible that you might have seen some sort of move by Americans against Japan at some point, it doesn't seem very likely in a short term if Japanese don't make a move to SE Asia.

 

[King Augeas]

This will make a few heads spin in London and Washington, that's for sure. Japan would need to make some effort to avoid it from being seen as a ploy.

This is the problem - how to stop it being seen as a pure opportunistic landgrab. Because Japan can't actually fight Germany very easily - and without meaningful military action against Germany, it would appear as a simple ploy.

 

[nbcman]

How much oil was in French Indochina and Polynesia? The principal problem of Japan remains: they need resources at some point.

According to the League of Nations 1940 reports, there wasn't any crude petroleum or shale oil produced in either colony.

http://digital.library.northwestern.edu/league/le0277ah.pdf

And the French did report on crude petroleum production in their North African colonies and on the production of other resources in other tables.

 

[DracoLazarus]

I'm afraid Tahiti and likely New Caledonia would be out of reach of the Japanese.

 

[DougM]

I think that if ANYONE had cane up with anything even close to an excuse that “saved face” and allowed the US and Japan to both walk away with heads held high claiming they got what they wanted that the US would have agreed to it.
The US was getting more and more focused. Eurpean issues (it was definitely FDRs focus)

 

[Derek Pullem]

POD needs to be earlier really.

If Japan does not sign Anti-Comintern pact for similar reasons as articulated above and instead tries for a rapprochement with USSR (no Khalkin Gol, no Lake Khasan) it is possible that the move might be accepted at nominal face value. Especially if Japan creates collaborationist indigenous governments which support their basing and transit rights. I think an embargo (formal or otherwise) from US is inevitable in the long run as the China lobby is too strong but it may get them trading rights from DEI and others. If Chiang decides to ask for more help from the Germans then this also plays into the narrative the Japanese would want to promote.

 

[Tonrich]

This is basically Japan recreating what it did in WWI. The resource base that Indochina would provide may probably appease the Japanese War machine for a while. Particularly food/rice production. I don't think the food situation is given enough play here. Japan imported a lot of food and the country as a whole had a very spartan diet due to the limitations of Japan's home agricultural production.

The more interesting part of this is the wide spacing of potential bases all the French colonies provides. If you are taking only Indochina that's one thing, but if you're including all the other French possessions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans it gets very interesting.

• Yanaon, India; How would Britain react to Japan establishing a foothold on the sub-continent???
• Madagascar; Large potential base being able to close down the 'round the horn' route to Egypt in the event the Med is closed???
• Reunion Islands; same as above.
• New Caledonia; A built up Truk style base on NC would be a dagger at the throat of Austraila.
• Clipperton Island; This one is VERY interesting as it's several hundred miles north of the Canal Zone-directly between the Canal and San Diego. It would allow the Japanese the ability to closely monitor back and forth movement of the US navel forces between Atlantic and Pacific. (What a great place for a sub base)
• Tahiti; I'm less concerned about this one as it's too far away from any real strategic points.

 

[TheKutKu]

This is basically Japan recreating what it did in WWI. The resource base that Indochina would provide may probably appease the Japanese War machine for a while. Particularly food/rice production. I don't think the food situation is given enough play here. Japan imported a lot of food and the country as a whole had a very spartan diet due to the limitations of Japan's home agricultural production.

The more interesting part of this is the wide spacing of potential bases all the French colonies provides. If you are taking only Indochina that's one thing, but if you're including all the other French possessions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans it gets very interesting.

• Yanaon, India; How would Britain react to Japan establishing a foothold on the sub-continent???
• Madagascar; Large potential base being able to close down the 'round the horn' route to Egypt in the event the Med is closed???
• Reunion Islands; same as above.
• New Caledonia; A built up Truk style base on NC would be a dagger at the throat of Austraila.
• Clipperton Island; This one is VERY interesting as it's several hundred miles north of the Canal Zone-directly between the Canal and San Diego. It would allow the Japanese the ability to closely monitor back and forth movement of the US navel forces between Atlantic and Pacific. (What a great place for a sub base)
• Tahiti; I'm less concerned about this one as it's too far away from any real strategic points.

No way japan gets reunion/Madagascar/clipperton, Brits/American would preemptively take them
The Australians would likely do the same in New Caledonia

 

[nbcman]

This is basically Japan recreating what it did in WWI. The resource base that Indochina would provide may probably appease the Japanese War machine for a while. Particularly food/rice production. I don't think the food situation is given enough play here. Japan imported a lot of food and the country as a whole had a very spartan diet due to the limitations of Japan's home agricultural production.

The more interesting part of this is the wide spacing of potential bases all the French colonies provides. If you are taking only Indochina that's one thing, but if you're including all the other French possessions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans it gets very interesting.

• Yanaon, India; How would Britain react to Japan establishing a foothold on the sub-continent???
• Madagascar; Large potential base being able to close down the 'round the horn' route to Egypt in the event the Med is closed???
• Reunion Islands; same as above.
• New Caledonia; A built up Truk style base on NC would be a dagger at the throat of Austraila.
• Clipperton Island; This one is VERY interesting as it's several hundred miles north of the Canal Zone-directly between the Canal and San Diego. It would allow the Japanese the ability to closely monitor back and forth movement of the US navel forces between Atlantic and Pacific. (What a great place for a sub base)
• Tahiti; I'm less concerned about this one as it's too far away from any real strategic points.

Yanaon and New Caledonia would be impossible as both areas declared for Britain / Free France in late June 1940. If Japan moved on French India or New Caledonia in 1940 (and being magically prepared to do so as the Japanese were NOT expecting the collapse of France), it would be an act of war on Britain / Free France.

Clipperton Island is almost uninhabitable with a very questionable water supply and very limited food supply. In fact, here's the story of what happened to a Mexican colony in the early 1900s:

The British Pacific Island Company acquired the rights to guano deposits in 1906 and built a mining settlement in conjunction with the Mexican government. That same year, a lighthouse was erected under the orders of President Porfirio Díaz. By 1914 around 100 people—men, women, and children—were living there, resupplied every two months by a ship from Acapulco. With the escalation of fighting in the Mexican Revolution, the regular resupply visits ceased and the inhabitants were left to their own devices.[26]

By 1917 all but one of the male inhabitants had died. Many had perished from scurvy, while others (including Captain Arnaud) died during an attempt to sail after a passing ship to fetch help. Lighthouse keeper Victoriano Álvarez was the last man on the island, together with 15 women and children.[27] Álvarez proclaimed himself "king" and began a campaign of rape and murder, before being killed by Tirza Rendon, who was the recipient of his unwanted attention. Almost immediately after Álvarez's death four women and seven children, the last survivors, were picked up by the US Navy gunship Yorktown on 18 July 1917.[26

Doesn't really sound like a good location for anyone to be stranded at let alone to be a functioning 'coast watcher' location or even a sub base.

 

[Tonrich]

No way japan gets reunion/Madagascar/clipperton, Brits/American would preemptively take them
The Australians would likely do the same in New Caledonia

They didn't do it IRL. There wasn't a threat. If Japan pre-plans this without alerting the other 'interested' parties I can see it happening.

Think about it; December 1st 1940 and Japan declares War on Germany and pledges it's help to a longtime ally (Great Britain) to defeat the Nazi's. Japan has a couple warships and a troopship show up at all the above mentioned sites on Dec 2, lands and takes over each of these places and wa-la. Now if an 'interested' party wants to take over said location it becomes a negotiation or a declaration of war. With the state of the Demorcrocies in December of 1940 I think this would be easy for Japan to accomplish.

 

[RMcD94]

No way japan gets reunion/Madagascar/clipperton, Brits/American would preemptively take them
The Australians would likely do the same in New Caledonia

Would this action force the UK to declare on vichy France?

I think it would be difficult for Japan to invade in the Indian ocean.

French Polynesia is so sparsely defended that I believe a force could make it from the south seas mandate, it's closer than pearl harbour.

But following the seizure of French colonies Japan will surely be sending escorts into the Indian ocean with an eye for liberating more French colonies.

In regards to free France either it doesn't happen as otl, Japan ignores it (claim ignorance or that it's a Nazi ploy) or they say they're helping them with troops but free France must commit to decolonisation or something.

Any thoughts on Thailand?

Edit : also they could use this excuse to aid the DEI after the Netherlands fall.

 

[Gar48]

They didn't do it IRL. There wasn't a threat. If Japan pre-plans this without alerting the other 'interested' parties I can see it happening.

1) The Australians won't be happy about this. Even in OTL there were fears about a potential japanese invasion and i seriously doubt they would accept having a japanese colony so close to their borders

2) Why would Japan even waste time invading places like New Caledonia? Not only they lack any kind of useful redource but they are simply too distants from the Home Islands to have any kind of strategic value

3) Madagascar seems a bit too distant for Japan to invade the place


By the way i think people are forgetting about the bear in the room : once Germany is defeated, Joseph Stalin will surely find a reason to attack Japan.

Any thoughts on Thailand?

Probably same as OTL? I mean it will probably annex the same territories of OTL with a different excuse this time