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Nov. 6, 1968
November 6, 1968
Presidential Race Uncertain; No Candidate Reaches 270 Electoral Votes
One day after the election, the name of the next President of the United States is still unknown. For the first time since 1824, no Presidential candidate has attained a majority of electoral votes. Although Democrat Hubert Humphrey won the popular vote, Republican George Romney won a plurality of the electoral votes. However, third-party candidate George Wallace prevented both Romney and Humphrey from getting an outright majority of the electoral vote. Since no candidate unable to reach the required 270 electoral votes, the fate of the election will be decided by the House and Senate.
Romney won many states across the Midwest and West, carrying Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, for a total of 240 electoral votes. Humphrey dominated the Northeast and the West Coast, carrying the District of Columbia and the states of California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Washington, and West Virginia, for a total of 222 electoral votes. Lastly, Wallace prevailed in the South, carrying the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, for a total of 76 electoral votes. [1]
Over the past few weeks, Humphrey and Romney have been running neck and neck in the polls, with Romney having a slight edge nationwide. But Humphrey recently pulled ahead, winning the popular vote by a slim margin. Humphrey’s comeback can be attributed to his debate performance, combined with good progress in the Vietnam peace talks and support from erstwhile rival Robert Kennedy. [2][3]
In Congress, the Republicans gained a few seats in both houses. In the House, Democrats lost five seats while the Republicans gained five seats, with totals of 244 and 191 seats, respectively. [4] In the Senate, Democrats lost five seats while the Republicans gained five seats, with totals of 58 and 42 seats, respectively. [5]
[1] Nationwide, Romney loses 2% of the popular vote relative to Nixon (while Wallace gains 2%), but these gains/losses are greater in the South, where his support of civil rights and Mormonism hurt Romney deeply. Romney performs better than Nixon in Michigan, his home state (21 EV), which in OTL went to Humphrey. But in the South, Romney loses about 5% of the vote to Wallace, losing 4 states that in OTL went to Nixon. As @David T mentions here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...gan-ticket-wins-in-1968.469677/#post-19071989
As a result, Wallace wins Tennessee (11 EV), South Carolina (8 EV), and North Carolina (12 EV). Humphrey wins Missouri (12 EV) due to Romney losing enough votes to Wallace to put Humphrey in play there (Humphrey in OTL finished a very close second to Nixon in Missouri). Humphrey breaks even overall, losing some votes to Romney in Utah and Michigan, but gains enough votes to win California (40 EV), where Nixon had a home state advantage (Reagan might offset some of that, but he’s not at the top of the ticket).
[3] I think RFK would have stumped for Humphrey, as they were generally on good terms (and I think RFK would have been promised the nomination in ’72 or ’76 in return for support of Humphrey). From an excerpt of conversation between Humphrey and an aide during the California primary (“Heroes, Hacks, and Fools: Memoirs from the Political Inside”, pp. 70): “I want Bobby Kennedy to win as decisively as possible,” Humphrey said. “I want it to be so one-sided that McCarthy will be driven from the race entirely. Bobby Kennedy and I understand each other,” he went on. “If I am nominated, he’ll campaign for me without reservation. If something should happen so that he’s nominated, I’ll campaign for him.”
[4] In OTL, the total was 243-192, but Democrat Wes Vivian in Michigan’s 2nd district retains his seat, which he lost in OTL 1966.