Trapped Fox, a WW2 TL

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So the Western Front has stabilized and the Eastern Front has just broken out in late 1940 with several German victories but nothing major yet.

So southern Norway is German occupied, northern Norway is still in Allied hands; Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Western Poland are in German hands but the progress in France has stalled. How much of Northern France is German-occupied? The German people must be feeling frustrated and anxious about a two war front without any major allies or defeats of major Allied Powers.

Unless something drastic happens, I can’t see the war lasting past 1942, with either Germany defeated and occupied or the Nazis overthrown via a coup.

Facing the T-34 will likely lead to the rushing of the Tiger and the Panther into production and possible introduction in 1941 or early 1942 but that’d be too little too late, and possibly of infantry weapons such as the Panzerfaust and the Gewehr-43. I don’t see how the StG-44 could introduced, earliest it could introduced would be ‘43 but I doubt the Reich would last that long.

And with Germany strapped for resources and Hitler’s influence over the Army wavering/shaky, I doubt any sort of Holocaust would happen. If the Army found out or was ordered to take part they would revolt or refuse orders. Not necessarily out of humanitarian concerns, but more because of the waste of resources.
 
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And with Germany strapped for resources and Hitler’s influence over the Army wavering/shaky, I doubt any sort of Holocaust would happen. If the Army found out or was ordered to take part they would revolt or refuse orders. Not necessarily out of humanitarian concerns, but more because of the waste of resources.

Not necessarily - a hell of a lot of the Heer were pretty happy to go along with slaughtering Jews/Communists/whatever random Slav they could get their hands on then step back and let the SS take all of the blame when it all fell apart and people were getting appointments with Mr Pierrepoint.
 
Not necessarily - a hell of a lot of the Heer were pretty happy to go along with slaughtering Jews/Communists/whatever random Slav they could get their hands on then step back and let the SS take all of the blame when it all fell apart and people were getting appointments with Mr Pierrepoint.
Massacres, executions, etc I can see happening frequently. I’m talking about the whole industrial mass murder (extermination camps etc). A million or more may die in TTl’s holocaust but not to the level of OTL.
 
If France hasn't fallen, presumably Italy stays out. So no North African, East African, Sicilian, Yugoslavian, Greek or Italian campaigns. Will Japan go north instead of south?

That butterfly must be the size of a 747.
 
If France hasn't fallen, presumably Italy stays out. So no North African, East African, Sicilian, Yugoslavian, Greek or Italian campaigns. Will Japan go north instead of south?

That butterfly must be the size of a 747.
Problem is , at this time , going North for Japan just gets them frozen tundra with potentially lots of stuff under it. Nothing that could help sustain a war effort so Japans options are a) stay out and hope no more sanctions appear ( main one on oil was after invading Indo-China so situation is not yet desperate ) or b) go South and grab oil/rubber/tin needed.
 
Facing the T-34 will likely lead to the rushing of the Tiger and the Panther into production and possible introduction in 1941 or early 1942 but that’d be too little too late,
In a defensive role, forget the Panther and Tiger. Build as many StuG assault guns as possible, but dump the L/34, and get the L/43 or L/48 in production and mounted on the StuG.

ric350
 
Problem is , at this time , going North for Japan just gets them frozen tundra with potentially lots of stuff under it. Nothing that could help sustain a war effort so Japans options are a) stay out and hope no more sanctions appear ( main one on oil was after invading Indo-China so situation is not yet desperate ) or b) go South and grab oil/rubber/tin needed.
And if Russia and Germany are still being the aggressors as and when Japan go north then would the USA be as bothered Sanctions wise?
 
Germany's big problem is resources , without the West to plunder or imports from the East, together with a higher tempo of operations, its hard to see how they can last long enough to develop anything other than upgunned/armoured Pz III and IV's. StuG's are good ( cheaper and quicker to build ) but they have big limits in anything other than defensive warfare ( more suited to ambushes or prepared attacks rather than fluid warfare )
 
And if Russia and Germany are still being the aggressors as and when Japan go north then would the USA be as bothered Sanctions wise?
Still have the lessor sanctions from previous actions in China in place. It was due to the invasion being non defensive, so being seen as proof of aggressive tendencies, that caused the oil sanctions to be passed. Attacking North would therefore still cause alarm. That would be less than going South but the US would still be triggered to reinforce the Philippines and so possibly trigger Japan to do something silly.
 
New faces, Old enemies
The entry of the Soviets into the war and the subsequent opening of the Eastern Front came as a mix of relief and panic to the Western Allies. Soviet aid to their nations was terminated for the cause of political resources to the new Soviet war machine, and Soviet expansionism couldn’t be ignored. Early Soviet gains towards Przemsyl caused fears of Polish security to begin being debated, however, the quick German response and the entry of Hungary as an Axis power changed their minds. Nevertheless, the Germans had thrown massive amounts of forces to the East. Almost all German reserves, most German armored corps and hundreds of thousands of personnel were pulled off the Western Front to deal with the Soviet Union, giving massive breathing space to the West. With the entry of the Soviet Union and the pulling of so many German forces East, the German line in front of the Meuse became untenable. Regardless, the Germans had refused to withdraw. Allied intelligence seemed to underplay just how dire the German situation was, and many within the Allied high command still believed Germany had the strength to attempt another high-risk operation to cut off the Allies in Belgium. Nevertheless, the Allies were able to move off of a purely defensive strategy and begin to develop a more aggressive offensive plan to retake the Benelux. Thus Operation Flytrap-Lilypad was born, as a combined operation between the British (Flytrap) and French (Lilypad). Flytrap’s goal would be to push upwards from Rotterdam, occupying or encircling The Hague and reaching Amsterdam, cutting off all Axis forces in Holland, and then the goal would be to wipe them out. Lilypad would be achieved by an invasion through the Argonne, crossing the Meuse through Sedan, and penetrating into the Ardenne to enter Wallonia. These two offensives, undertaken simultaneously with Soviet assistance in the East, would unhinge the Axis position in the Benelux, and ideally create a general withdrawal from Belgium, while also liberating much of the Netherlands, and hopefully encouraging the timid Dutch government to return to the continent, in order to reignite Dutch resistance, which had been suppressed after German counterattacks.

Map of the front lines as of September 19th, 1940. (Credit where all credit is due to @Thanosaekk for designing this brilliant and beautiful map, found https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wwii-maps-day-by-day.459580/ I will use this map template from now on to show the changing front lines if that's ok. Once again, I do not take credit for the intense amount of time, research and effort gone into making this excellent map, and I will be privileged to be able to use this map for my TL.)
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Outside of these military plans, which would still take a couple of weeks to organize to set in motion, the Allies were experiencing their own changes on their home front. British prime minister Winston Churchill began drafting up plans to pool more forces into Europe throughout the colonies to assist in the Norwegian Campaign and possibly establishing a military presence in the Balkans and North Africa, out of fears of Italian intervention. British political scenes, however, didn't change much, although Churchill would become famous for his "We will fight on the beaches" speech, iterating the British aim of fighting on the shores of Zeeland and Holland, fighting in France, fighting with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, and fighting to liberate Europe from the German Menace. Churchill's speeches would be known as a series of aggressive speeches, hallmarking the Allies intent on fighting the war to the end to destroy Nazi tyranny on the continent.

France itself saw much more radical changes. In the wake of the blitz, the French government had been stunned and shocked. Once again, France had proven itself capable of defense, however, was still fearful of the German armies. President Reynaud would still be cautious, however, as everyone understood that yet another generation would fight in the trenches of the Argonne. Reynaud shared Churchill's sympathy, calling for a victorious Allies and destruction of the aggressive and virulent Nazi regime. The Allies were quick to specify the fascistic aspects of Germany, caring to suggest the Germans were not content with the Nazi regime, and hopeful of an anti-nazi coup to take place, or for popular support. However, Reynaud also had to tread the thin line of proving that French prowess still exists, and rallied the French to fight their traditional enemy. Reynaud would, after an intense conflict, and forced to reach out to bipartisan aspects of the French left, to finally remove Daladier as Minister of Defense, replaced by his favored Charles De Gaulle. Gaulle would be a welcome entrance into the political scene by many of the French forces, as Charles De Gaulle was once a soldier like them and could easily relate, however many in the French elite chafed at Reynaud's preference over Gaulle, and the popular Deladier would become a rallying point of French conservatives and reactionaries.
 
@GroßDeutchesKaiserreich Small nitpick - Reynaud was the Prime Minister, not the President.

More important point - is removing the Left’s role in government, vis a vis replacing Daladier with de Gaulle, really the smartest move for the French government at this point? Wouldn’t it make more sense to take a page from Churchill’s example same try to maintain a “grand coalition” of sorts?
 
@GroßDeutchesKaiserreich Small nitpick - Reynaud was the Prime Minister, not the President.

More important point - is removing the Left’s role in government, vis a vis replacing Daladier with de Gaulle, really the smartest move for the French government at this point? Wouldn’t it make more sense to take a page from Churchill’s example same try to maintain a “grand coalition” of sorts?

Definitely won’t help with Reynaud’s popularity with parliament, although Reynaud OTL had long wanted to remove Daladier due to Reynaud viewing him as weak in the face of German aggression. Newcomer De Gaulle does also have a lot of pressure, and both of their careers are pretty much being bet on the success of Lilypad.
 
Italo-Greek war
While the war situation in Northern Europe was the premier crisis of the world, other conflicts were brewing abroad.

Just to the south of the Alps, a crisis was escalating. Duce Benito Mussolini had ambitions to expand his Italian State into a Neo-Roman Empire, seeking to bring all of the “Mare Nostrum” or Meditteranean Sea and coast, under his heel. The partition of Czechoslovakia, the German alliance with Romania, Yugoslav declarations of neutrality and the ongoing war between 4 out of 5 of the European Great Powers made the enforcement of the Little Entente (France’s series of alliances with Balkan nations to preempt revanchist Hungarian/German aggression or Italian-Soviet ambitions in Eastern Europe) or any real geostrategic security in Eastern Europe impossible, and left multiple states at the mercy of the Italian dictatorship, or at least, in theory. Even Winston Churchill would state to the Yugoslav foreign minister Dragisa Cvetkovic that it would be unlikely to see military support in the event of an Italian invasion of the country. This was, a symptom of overestimation of fascist strength, as was common within the Western governments. The reality was that nearly all parties involved had grossly overestimated Italian prowess in combat, with the only power looking poorly on the Italian military being the Soviet Union, after witnessing firsthand Italian incompetence in battle. However, in the eyes of Mussolini and Italian planners, Further Soviet expansionism would be checked by German and/or Allied response, and therefore the areas of the Balkans not already in German influence were seen as fair game to Mussolini. Further fears were escalated with the significant rise of socialist activity in Bulgaria, which in turn forced the Bulgarian government to begin a pro-soviet stance. The Bulgarian government allowed the Russian black sea fleet to dock in Bulgarian ports, however, it refused to allow Soviet aircraft bases in the area. This was mainly due to fears that Germany would invade, similar to what occurred in Hungary. Stalin had made many Bulgarians thirst about the idea of conquering the region of Dobrudja, with Stalin promising vast amounts of the Romanian coastline, and even control of significant Romanian oil fields, which would be an incredibly useful asset to the otherwise dull and ignored Bulgarian economy. What was worse, was that Stalin made his offers to Bulgaria public, to change the Bulgarian population to a pro-soviet stance, and apply pressure to the anti-communist cabinet to move into the Soviet sphere of influence. While this disturbed many in the Romanian and Allied governments, it did successfully convince many Bulgarians to support Soviet aims for their country. This startled Mussolini, who had dreamed of an Italo-Bulgarian alliance, which would lead to the two states becoming the predominant powers in the lower Balkans. All this gave Mussolini the belief that conquest of the Hellenic state would be preferable to Italy's ambitions. And so, on the 5th of October, Italian armies crossed the Greco-Albanian border.

The war itself was not that big of a surprise, earlier that year, the Greek light cruiser Elli was sunk by the Italians, infuriating the Greek populous, although president Mexatas was careful not to provoke a war with the Italians. However Italian buildup in September couldn't be ignored, and the Kingdom of Hellas was forced to mobilize to defend itself.

When the fateful 5th came, over 11 divisions crossed the Greco-Italian border. The numbers were less skewed than originally thought. The Italians, to inflate their division size, had left the 3 regiment standard by most nations in Europe, in favor of the lighter 2. This meant, however, meant that in any standard pitched battle, an individual Italian division would be of the inferior fighting capability to a European opponent. The Greeks themselves mustered 4 1/2 divisions to the border, held on defensible positions, an army was held in reserve against the Bulgarians, out of fear of their intervention. The initial Italian invasion was met with lukewarm success, fighting bloodily through the Mexatas line into the Epirus Mountains, where Italian battalions were mauled against an ever-growing defense. The Italian army quickly stalled after a period of bloody, slow fighting, and soon the Greeks were able to launch a mass scale counterattack to the Mexatas Line, quickly stagnating the war into a brutal mountain front, in which the Greeks and Italians quickly began to flood in more and more forces to the front line, resembling the Alpine front of world war one.

Stagnation of the Italo-Hellenic front, October 18th
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The international backlash from the war was mixed. Axis' response was mostly indifference. The Romanian government was hopeful that the Bulgarians would declare war on Greece, and remove the pressure of a Bulgarian invasion of Dobrudja. The German government was also hopeful, in that the Entente would declare war on Italy, and drag another great power on the Axis side. Germany was also more than happy to have Italy distract Balkan foreign policy, to allow Germany to concentrate on more important sectors of Europe. Germany hoped that Allied focus would be directed to the Meditteranean, and give much-needed breathing space to allow Germany to commit more resources elsewhere. However, when approached about an alliance, Mussolini refused, worrying about being brought into the war. It was soon clear to Adolf Hitler and the German high command that the Italians were attempting to piggyback on European distraction and that Italo-German cooperation wasn't in the interest of the Italian government.

The Soviet Union was a bit more responsive, privately warning the Bulgarians not to invade Greece, with Stalin privately promising to seize the lands of Thrace later for Bulgaria. Tsar Ferdinand was uncomfortable with the idea of Soviet power directing Bulgaria's foreign policy, however, the steady expansion of the Soviet line along the Romanian front would convince the Bulgarians that the Soviets were a power that could easily damage them. For example, the Soviet fleet could easily blockade Bulgaria's ports and wreck its economy. The Bulgarian government itself had no intention of invading Greece, especially after Italy's disastrous withdrawal back to the Mexatas line. Bulgaria rather was more interested in using Greek weakness to coerce an open Aegean port for Bulgaria, to remove much of the influence Turkey, Romania and the Soviet Union commanded on the Bulgarian economy.
The British response was one of militancy. Churchill saw Italy as a severe geostrategic threat and moved multiple carrier groups into the region as a show of force. British aid flooded into Greece, and the British were quick to apply sanctions on the Italian state. The French reaction was milder. In fact, the French were aiming at being able to pull their 4th army off the Italian border to be deployed against Germany. The French mostly publicly decried the Italians, however were waiting for the British response before taking action, and didn't want to alienate it's formal ally in Yugoslavia by not showing willingness to intervene. Regardless, war would rage in the small corner of Europe.
 
Looking at the major OTL WWII events in the first half of 1941 to get some idea of where this TL may be going next - since I’m guessing Lend Lease proceeds more or less as OTL, I’m mainly left wondering if the coups in Yugoslavia and Iraq will be affected. Also, will Rudolf Hess still be performing his little stunt?
 
Looking at the major OTL WWII events in the first half of 1941 to get some idea of where this TL may be going next - since I’m guessing Lend Lease proceeds more or less as OTL, I’m mainly left wondering if the coups in Yugoslavia and Iraq will be affected. Also, will Rudolf Hess still be performing his little stunt?

I doubt Hess would. Germany's position is way worse so I doubt he will think landing in Britain will convince the British to switch sides and fight the Soviets. This isn't Turtledove's Big Switch. He would probably remain as Deputy Fuehrer. Is Goring still the "undisputed" successor to Hitler? Has Goring cleaned up a bit due to the war's stress or double-down on excess and drugs?
 
Polish collaboration, Lublin offensive, and so, so many kommands.
While the Balkan crisis escalated, troubles were brewing elsewhere. The German forces in Norway were under threat, the British blockade setting in earnest, and although Germany had made some headway on the Eastern Front, it was not enough to change the war situation, much less knock the Russians out of the war. Pretty much everyone in Germany recognized they would have to do something, and fast if they wanted a chance at winning.

The German high command recognized several problems. In their haste to cobble up any solid defensive line outside of the measly amount divisions the Germans had along the east, massive logistical strides had to be taken. The German forces on the west had suddenly been deprived of severe air support, practically all of their panzer corps and massive amounts of men and reserves. Worse, reports were circling that the British and French were planning on undertaking a large scale pan-front offensive, and the harsh reality of the situation was that Germany lacked the strength to properly defend the line. Meanwhile, Soviet reinforcements were arriving by the day, and the coming winter would halt any future operations. The Soviets had nearly quadrupled their military strength along the border, constructing a series of defenses that would make any offensive into Bialystok or Ukraine end in disaster. All the while, Germany's allies were noticeably uncomfortable with the situation, and Polish, Czech and Danish resistance efforts were at an all-time high. And so, changes had to be made.

Convening in Berlin, nearly the entire German high command was focused on devising a strategy for the war. The first things that could be agreed upon were the organization of the armies. The German forces would be split in two, between Westkommand and Ostkommand. The division was, of course, unequal, Ostkommand necessitated a longer frontline, and therefore, more troops, more air support, and in general more war assets.

Westkommand was split further in two, between Nordkommand and Rheinkommand. Nordkommand would be responsible for the defense of the German North Sea coastline, occupation, and protection of Denmark, as well as control of Norway and responsibility for the Norwegian frontline. Nordkommand would be directed by Walter von Reichenau.

Rheinkommand would be responsible for the general Western front, from Rotterdam to Mulhouse, directed at the main Allied force in the area. Rheinkommand would be directed by Walter von Brauchwichtz.

on the East, Ostkommand would further be broken up into Baltkommand, directed by Ferdinand Schorner, dealing with Liepaja and the line from Riga and all around the Lithuanian line.

The central line would be under Centrekommand, designed on holding the line from Prussia and across most of the Soviet-Generalgovernment border, under Erich von Manstein.

And finally, Sudkommand, holding all areas south up until the Romanian line, under Friedrich Paulus. Due to German desperation, the Romanians would be expected to hold their line with Hungarian assistance.

Now, with their new reorganized army, military plans would have to be set. The western armies would focus mostly on holding their forward positions and wait for reinforcements on the East.

More of the German plan relied on the East. Diplomacy with the soviet union was key, and the German government was just hoping to throw Romania to the wolves, recognize their errors, and come off with as little concessions as possible, while Germany would attempt a second knockout blow against France However currently, Joseph Stalin's demands, which included the Germans backing out of the General government, Memel, Romania, and Hungary, was seen as too much for the Hitler, negotiating with Molotov via Ribbentrop in Sweden, as thus far, Germany was still winning. Thus, the Eastern armies were to prepare, for offensives via Sudkommand into West Ukraine, while Baltkommand would push to overrun Villnus and Greater Lithuania, to force a Soviet withdrawal from Bialystok. The Soviet response to the failed negotiations was swift.

Soviet forces amidst the Lublin Offensive on November 29th, 1940
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While small scale raiding and probing had been undertaken by both sides across the entire front for months now, ever since the early German victories, the front had been mostly quiet. This led to the German high command falsely assuming the Russians lacked the forces necessary to launch a counter-attack, and moved their offensive forces south and north to prepare for their front-wide pincer maneuver.

The Russians had been using this time to rapidly develop the Red Army. Expanding from 260 divisions to nearly 400, the Red Army was continuing the titanic effort of mobilization, as hundreds of thousands either volunteered or were conscripted into the Red Army. Soviet forces in the center coalesced, preparing for an offensive towards Lublin. The East Polish oil and natural gas fields were vital to the German economy, and Stalin planned on blasting open into the Polish countryside, and then proceed to launch spearheads, liberating Warsaw, and capturing Przemsyl, pinning German forces to the Carpathians. While the Germans prepared for their spring offensive, the Soviets placed nearly 50 divisions under the command of Ivan Konev to the Lublin theatre, where the commander would launch the Lublin offensive, remarked by many as the beginning of the end of the Reich.

Penetrating deep, the overextended German line was completely obliterated, and within days a massive gap was opened up in the line. Despite the Red Air Force being comparatively small to the Luftwaffe, the overextension of the Luftwaffe, being stretched to fight against Western Allied aerial attacks as well as Soviet ones, the Red Air Force saw large success in bombing infrastructure, asserting air supremacy, and providing close air support for the Red Army's advance. While the line burned, the Germans had to cobble up a defense. Manstein moved dozens of forces from Prussia to contain the breakthrough, SS detachments moved from the Generalgovournment, and Baltkommand would have to deploy nearly all it's strategic reserves to Centrekommand, effectively dashing any hopes of taking Liepaja for the near future, and ironically placing Liepaja in a dangerous position to attempt a sortie. But the situation only got worse.

Vatutin provided Konev with a number of his forces, allowing a strike from both the east and the northeast. The German lines had no alternative but to snap completely and the chaos saw multiple German corps destroyed. The Germans tried plugging in the gap with local police and Gestapo officers, as that was about the only thing the Germans could call on. The Germans would be forced to relieve multiple divisions from the Western front in order to assist in stopping the Soviet advance. Soviet forces took the city of Lublin in mid-December, however, Manstein was able to slow down the Red Army. The Soviets weren't done, however, and just as the Germans were beginning to slow down the Lublin offensive, Zhukov unleashed a series of fast, hard-hitting assaults against the Romanian line, keeping the Romanians guessing until a large scale offensive was undertaken towards Chisinau, making the Romanians believe their target was the city, however, the Soviets struck into the south, hard, running through the mouth of the Danube, striking at Galati and Tulcea. By New Year's, Zhukov had 5 divisions across the Danube. To add insult to injury, the new line forced the Romanians to make a retreat across the Prut River in many areas, abandoning Chisinau and opening the gates for the Soviets into Moldova.

With the chaos along the front quieted, for now, the Germans quickly realized they lacked the men to hold the entire front line. While debating how to fix this, a popular thought emerged from many in the Wehrmacht. The plan would be to create a Polish collaborationist government, with more autonomy than the military occupation that was the General-government. While the SS howled and was an incredibly hard sell to Hitler and many in the Nazi elite, eventually pragmatism and the reality of the situation won out, and the Polish State was formed, headed by pro-German Wladyslaw Studnicki, where the Germans immediately instructed the new government to raise battalions for "National Defense against the Bolshevik threat." Although Wladyslaw accepted the position, almost no Polish soldiers volunteered, and throughout the war, the Polish State would rely on conscription to maintain Wehrmacht demands, and would still oversee the horrors of Nazi ethnic cleansing.
 
Oh man, unless the Germans can secure some sort of large scale victory in the East then this war is about to go downhill quick. The Reich will be lucky to survive 1941.
 
If France hasn't fallen, presumably Italy stays out. So no North African, East African, Sicilian, Yugoslavian, Greek or Italian campaigns. Will Japan go north instead of south?

That butterfly must be the size of a 747.
well italy might want Austria...
 
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