WI Brazil democratizes on the 1900s-10s-20s

[Gukpard]

In OTL from 1889 until 1930 brazil was under a oligarchic republic known as "The old republic", with all presidents being selected from the running oligarchies. Some dictators showed up like Arthur Bernardes or the greatest S.o. B. in brazilian history Floriano Peixoto, but something that surprises me is that Argentina had a similar system but managed to elect a president in 1916 and again in 1922 and 1928 (six years mandate, no direct reelection). So here a question: Could Brazil pass through some electoral reform that ends the voting fraud at least on the presidential level and turns the old republic into a democracy?

CALLING ALL BRAZILIAN EXPERTS

@Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro @John Fredrick Parker @Monter @Diego

 

[Vinization]

Holy shit butterflies. Endless, endless butterflies.

I won't even dare to try to see any potential effects from this right now, so I'll go for what could cause the sort of electoral reform that is necessary.

Say Ruy Barbosa somehow defeats Hermes da Fonseca's electoral fraud machine and becomes president in 1910. He was a great intellectual, and was the first candidate ever to campaign over the country, staging marches and rallies in São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro.

He's the little guy in the center of the picture.

He feels like someone who would at least try to combat electoral fraud. A Brazilian Sáenz Pena, if you will.

 

[Gukpard]

He's the little guy in the center of the picture.

He feels like someone who would at least try to combat electoral fraud. A Brazilian Sáenz Pena, if you will.

Like, the problem is the possibility of him being killed, either directly of driven to phisical and mental death like they did with Afonso Pena...

 

[Vinization]

Like, the problem is the possibility of him being killed, either directly of driven to phisical and mental death like they did with Afonso Pena...

There's a real possibility that more reactionary parts of the army try to depose president Ruy, particularly if he screws up on tough situations like the Revolt of the Lash and the Contestado War.

Speaking of Afonso Pena, a good POD could be him not dying in 1909. His successor, Nilo Peçanha, immediately supported Hermes' candidacy, and that had predictable results. Afonso might hesitate a bit, maybe even stay neutral, which could give Ruy a chance to to swing more states to his side.

 

[Vinization]

Anyway, here's a consequence.

Brazil will see social-democratic parties show up much earlier than OTL, and they won't have the long shadow of Getúlio Vargas and his heirs over them. Maybe someone like Pedro Ernesto Batista (one of the best mayors Rio de Janeiro ever had, I must add) leads one such party and becomes president in the middle of the Great Depression, thus creating labour protections and rights without the Estado Novo's authoritarianism? Also, there's a load of intellectuals and whatnot who could become potential politicians with the right butterflies and other stuff.

President Ariano Suassuna in the 1960s? His father was governor of Paraíba, after all, and such a POD would definitely butterfly away his murder. Also, Astrojildo Pereira, one of Brazil's first and most important anarchist and later communist thinkers, became disillusioned with normal politics after Ruy's defeat in 1910. If Ruy wins, maybe Astrojildo could become a moderate social democrat rather than a revolutionary.

Also, Maurício de Lacerda and his son, the infamous Carlos Lacerda (the Crow) could still be leftists rather than drifting to the right and the UDN during and after the Estado Novo. Carlos would probably still be an insufferable asshole, though.

In short, such a POD affects the careers of so many people that just thinking about it can give me a migraine if I'm not careful.

 

[Gukpard]

Anyway, here's a consequence.

Brazil will see social-democratic parties show up much earlier than OTL, and they won't have the long shadow of Getúlio Vargas and his heirs over them. Maybe someone like Pedro Ernesto Batista (one of the best mayors Rio de Janeiro ever had, I must add) leads one such party and becomes president in the middle of the Great Depression, thus creating labour protections and rights without the Estado Novo's authoritarianism? Also, there's a load of intellectuals and whatnot who could become potential politicians with the right butterflies and other stuff.

President Ariano Suassuna in the 1960s? His father was governor of Paraíba, after all, and such a POD would definitely butterfly away his murder. Also, Astrojildo Pereira, one of Brazil's first and most important anarchist and later communist thinkers, became disillusioned with normal politics after Ruy's defeat in 1910. If Ruy wins, maybe Astrojildo could become a moderate social democrat rather than a revolutionary.

Also, Maurício de Lacerda and his son, the infamous Carlos Lacerda (the Crow) could still be leftists rather than drifting to the right and the UDN during and after the Estado Novo. Carlos would probably still be an insufferable asshole, though.

In short, such a POD affects the careers of so many people that just thinking about it can give me a migraine if I'm not careful.

Maybe this could have given us the democratic tradition we lack, because most of the changes always had came through authoritarian means. A earlier socdem Brazil could allow these reforms and also results on a longer democratic period, maybe we still could be under a modified 1891 constitution instead of like, seven constitutions, we change them more than we change pants.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Hmm, this means not only universal suffrage, but even more importantly the end of the Comissão de Verificação, which was where they discarded any opposition politician that had managed to get elected in spite of the electoral fraud. Biggest impediment to that is the Brazilian Congress. How do you manage to convince the congressmen that they need to change the system which guarantees their hold on power? Sáenz Peña did it in Argentina because social upheaval was getting to the point where the politicians had to throw some crumbs to the opposition in order to pacify it(and the electoral reform crumb proved to be far bigger than Peña and his supporters had thought, as it unseated them). In Brazil, although things were turbulent, the local oligarchies still were mostly uncontested, and would not see the need for change until the 1929 Crash comes.

Assuming Congress manages to be convinced of the need for reform, butterflies are too many to list. No Vargas Era changes 20th-century Brazil entirely.

 

[Gukpard]

Hmm, this means not only universal suffrage, but even more importantly the end of the Comissão de Verificação, which was where they discarded any opposition politician that had managed to get elected in spite of the electoral fraud. Biggest impediment to that is the Brazilian Congress. How do you manage to convince the congressmen that they need to change the system which guarantees their hold on power? Sáenz Peña did it in Argentina because social upheaval was getting to the point where the politicians had to throw some crumbs to the opposition in order to pacify it(and the electoral reform crumb proved to be far bigger than Peña and his supporters had thought, as it unseated them). In Brazil, although things were turbulent, the local oligarchies still were mostly uncontested, and would not see the need for change until the 1929 Crash comes.

Assuming Congress manages to be convinced of the need for reform, butterflies are too many to list. No Vargas Era changes 20th-century Brazil entirely.

Maybe Brazil joins the losing side of WWI, what do you think ?

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Maybe Brazil joins the losing side of WWI, what do you think ?

Unlikely to happen without a prior POD, IMO; as I understand it Brazilian public opinion oscillated between neutrality and joining the Entente, with little voice being given to pro-Central Powers opinions.

Just had a thought. Campos Salles doesn't manage to stabilize things, and the chaos of the 1890's goes on through the 1900's(having a Prudente de Morais-like administrattion together with the Vaccine Revolt, that's gotta be a mess); that may convince a faction that the only way to pacify the country is by liberalization. As a bonus, if Campos Salles fails to enact the Governors' Policy, you don't get the mechanisms which created the oligarchical system of the Old Republic.

 

[Vinization]

Perhaps this could restart the discussion.

WI if president Prudente de Moraes was assassinated no November 5th, 1897. That day, he was attacked by a man in the middle of a ceremony with a revolver that failed to fire. After that, the assailant ditched the firearm for a knife, but the only person he managed to kill with it was marshal Carlos Machado de Bittencourt. What if he managed to kill the president?

Could that, combined with other events, provide the necessary upheaval that would allow the Old Republic to democratize? Manuel Vitorino, the vice-president, apparently had several disagreements with his superior, and his political career was ruined because he was implicated in the attack against Prudente.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

WI if president Prudente de Moraes was assassinated no November 5th, 1897. That day, he was attacked by a man in the middle of a ceremony with a revolver that failed to fire. After that, the assailant ditched the firearm for a knife, but the only person he managed to kill with it was marshal Carlos Machado de Bittencourt. What if he managed to kill the president?

Could that, combined with other events, provide the necessary upheaval that would allow the Old Republic to democratize? Manuel Vitorino, the vice-president, apparently had several disagreements with his superior, and his political career was ruined because he was implicated in the attack against Prudente.

It certainly could lead to such upheaval, yes, especially given the wave of sympathy for the President that the failed attack created. In fact, when I imagined the chaos of the 1890's continuing, a successful Prudente de Morais assassination was to me one of the possible PODs for that(along with Colonel Moreira César defeating Antônio Conselheiro and surviving Canudos, but this one is way harder to accomplish).

As an aside, the Prudente de Morais and Hermes da Fonseca administrations are the ones that made me say you have to convince Congress to democratize - both administrations had the Congress against them, and both of them were turbulent times where little was done until Congress was either supressed(Prudente de Morais arrested and removed his most bitter opponents in Congress and the Vice-president, who was allied to them, and they couldn't get elected in the next Legislature due to the Comissão de Verificação not validating their votes) or appeased(by 1913, Hermes da Fonseca had mostly capitulated and made a deal with Congress, after which his administration was much less turbulent).

 

[Gukpard]

It certainly could lead to such upheaval, yes, especially given the wave of sympathy for the President that the failed attack created. In fact, when I imagined the chaos of the 1890's continuing, a successful Prudente de Morais assassination was to me one of the possible PODs for that(along with Colonel Moreira César defeating Antônio Conselheiro and surviving Canudos, but this one is way harder to accomplish).

As an aside, the Prudente de Morais and Hermes da Fonseca administrations are the ones that made me say you have to convince Congress to democratize - both administrations had the Congress against them, and both of them were turbulent times where little was done until Congress was either supressed(Prudente de Morais arrested and removed his most bitter opponents in Congress and the Vice-president, who was allied to them, and they couldn't get elected in the next Legislature due to the Comissão de Verificação not validating their votes) or appeased(by 1913, Hermes da Fonseca had mostly capitulated and made a deal with Congress, after which his administration was much less turbulent).

That being said, I just think it is too early. By 1897 there is no democracy in south america I know of, there is not even the Pena law so why they would democratise?

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

That being said, I just think it is too early. By 1897 there is no democracy in south america I know of, there is not even the Pena law so why they would democratise?

Oh, they wouldn't democratize by 1897, the idea is continued turbulence throughout the 1890's and 1900's could lead to democratization in the 1910's.

 

[Gukpard]

@Vinization and @Guilherme Loureiro which presidents coukf show up with a 1897 PoD? Would Brazil turn out better in the 1960s than OTL?

 

[Vinization]

@Vinization and @Guilherme Loureiro which presidents coukf show up with a 1897 PoD? Would Brazil turn out better in the 1960s than OTL?

Well, other than Manuel Vitorino, we could have an earlier Afonso Pena (who certainly wouldn't die in office), Rodrigues Alves (he was a former governor and senator for São Paulo, clearly he was a strong candidate), Quintino Bocaiuva, Ruy Barbosa (probably on 1910, and he would be our Sáenz Peña), and many others.

As for your second question, there are so many things that could go either right or horribly wrong that there can't be a single answer. Perhaps Brazil could become a functioning democracy and creates a proper welfare system among other crucial reforms, or there could be some really nasty military coup that creats a period of chronic instability, similar to how Argentina was after the downfall of president Hipólito Yrigoyen.

EDIT: It would make an excellent TL though. Any takers?

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

Well, other than Manuel Vitorino, we could have an earlier Afonso Pena (who certainly wouldn't die in office), Rodrigues Alves (he was a former governor and senator for São Paulo, clearly he was a strong candidate), Quintino Bocaiuva, Ruy Barbosa (probably on 1910, and he would be our Sáenz Peña), and many others.

Disagree on Bocaiúva. AFAIK, his tenure at the head of the Foreign Relations Ministry was a disaster, and people may remember that. Ruy Barbosa was also a disaster at the head of the Finance Ministry(doing his part in bringing on the chaos of the 1890's), but he had more prestige than Bocaiúva, and he didn't come up with a treaty the Congress refused to ratify because it was harmful to national interests.

As for your second question, there are so many things that could go either right or horribly wrong that there can't be a single answer. Perhaps Brazil could become a functioning democracy and creates a proper welfare system among other crucial reforms, or there could be some really nasty military coup that creats a period of chronic instability, similar to how Argentina was after the downfall of president Hipólito Yrigoyen.

Yes, the changes would be so big, things could go anywhere as result.

As for doing the suggested TL, I'll have to decline. I already have (nebulous)plans of writing TLs that probably won't ever be written, don't want to add another one.

 

[Vinization]

Disagree on Bocaiúva. AFAIK, his tenure at the head of the Foreign Relations Ministry was a disaster, and people may remember that. Ruy Barbosa was also a disaster at the head of the Finance Ministry(doing his part in bringing on the chaos of the 1890's), but he had more prestige than Bocaiúva, and he didn't come up with a treaty the Congress refused to ratify because it was harmful to national interests.



Yes, the changes would be so big, things could go anywhere as result.

As for doing the suggested TL, I'll have to decline. I already have (nebulous)plans of writing TLs that probably won't ever be written, don't want to add another one.

I didn't know that about Bocaiuva. Didn't Ruy's reputation recover thanks to his presence in the 1907 Hague Convention (which earned him the nickname "Águia de Haia")?

Anyway, one of the good things about a potential Ruy presidency is that he wouldn't be able to focus all of his attention on the economy, which could prevent a second Encilhamento. He would have to focus on other matters, like justice and foreign relations, and that's probably where he would really shine. Unless his Finance Minister somehow gets the stupid virus. Plus, the old man changed quite a bit since his days as Deodoro's minister. Still, even if he was ridiculously intelligent, he wouldn't necessarily be a successful president.

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

I didn't know that about Bocaiuva. Didn't Ruy's reputation recover thanks to his presence in the 1907 Hague Convention (which earned him the nickname "Águia de Haia")?

I think his reputation had recovered earlier than that, and it helped that he already was well-regarded before the Encilhamento.

 

[Vinization]

I think his reputation had recovered earlier than that, and it helped that he already was well-regarded before the Encilhamento.

Well, he was Ruy Barbosa...