Combined Fleet destroys USN at Midway? Effects?
- Thread starter aaronupright
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Geon
Donor
Referring back to my earlier post (#186) I now recall that John Ford did do a documentary on Midway! He even included footage of the actual attack on the airfield. I could imagine this film being expanded big time to show the "gallant resistance of our armed forces on both land and sea!"
Outstanding timeline on an Allied invasion of Japan after Anami's military coup actually succeeds - and let us just say, biological and chemical weapons make an appearance in a plausible and well researched way.
Very much worth a read if you have time. Red did his homework.
If I were the army censors, I would use it to make Midway look like Wake, the Alamo, the Lost Battalion and Bunker Hill all rolled into one. Have some of the survivors tour the states selling war bonds, giving out autographs.
Geon
Donor
If anyone is interested, here is a link to the film on YouTube.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...FA35197EDB4D6B6630AFFA35197EDB4D&&FORM=VRDGAR
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?...FA35197EDB4D6B6630AFFA35197EDB4D&&FORM=VRDGAR
Preparations for use of biological weapons against the US in the field are noted though the submarine carrying them apparently sunk.
https://www.nytimes.com/1995/03/17/...-japan-confronting-gruesome-war-atrocity.html
The U.S. produced the 143K (some sources say 146K) ton as noted between 1941-45. Sources vary on the amount retained post WW I to a degree that I am not confident that I have found a seriously reliable figure (literally saw numbers ranging from a few thousand tons to over 40,000 tons).
The part that makes the Japanese effort with Plague against the U.S. West Coast so bizarre is that Plague is endemic across the Western states. Rats and squirrels are found dead from the disease one a semi-regular basis. There are actual on-going reporting requirements documenting higher than normal dead rodent observations for Forestry personnel, or at least there were (you rarely see dead rodents in a "wild" area, the small predators/scavengers usually clean them up in short order).
There is an incident in Bari Italy from 1943 from a ship named the John Harvey carrying chemical weapons but this was unknown to the people there at the time. A German bombing let loose the mustard gas - resulting military casualties exceeded 600, civilian casualties were unknown, and it was kept quiet. Reportedly there were two thousand of these bombs weighing 100 pounds each (https://fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/cbw/cw.htm).
Overall chemical weapon production from the US during world war 2 was approx. 146,000 *tons* (https://denix.osd.mil/rcwmprogram/history/)
Operation Cherry Blossoms at Night was indeed strange but while Plague is endemic in some areas now it was not nearly so widespread in those days. Indeed if released the Imperial government might have been blamed as the source even though it apparently reached US shores a generation earlier. (https://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1372/pdf/C1372_Plague.pdf)
I think the damage inflicted to Eastern and Sand Islands during the battle as well as the impact of losing Midway is being underestimated. The damage from the May 22 fire is still not repaired, requiring aircraft fuel to be drawn by hand from 55 gallon drums instead of refueling from a more centralized system. In the bombings from the Japanese carriers the generator was damaged, not only compromising the electrical supply but also the fresh water supply as well. Several of the land-based aircraft are damaged or destroyed - many are somewhat older as well. An ammunition pit for the aircraft took a severe hit amidst all of this with loss of .50 cal rounds and bombs. Yes, the men on the island could return fire, but now you've got (a) another bombing run from the carriers about to commence and (b) a lot of people with concerns for (ironically) running short of fresh water. McClusky got lucky and caught the carriers refueling for that second strike - I believe that strike does even more damage and potentially knocks out the water supply, which the Japanese are expecting due to the already decoded message. Land-based aircraft for reinforcement are distant and will take time to get out there. Yes, the runways are intact, but few aircraft remain airworthy and many more need repairs. I believe the logistical needs of the damaged base are thus underestimated - without sufficient water, the base likely surrenders in a few days, and potentially for the same reason used as a ruse in the first place. One of the damaged American bomber aircraft almost killed Nagumo and his staff on the bridge of his carrier in a kamikaze attack - perhaps that is why he launched the second wave at all. Example: sixty-six Midway-based aircraft in the air at 06:15 on 04 June (not counting the carriers of course) saw twenty return by 07:00 with only one Wildcat and one Buffalo were in flyable shape. Of note, the fog was thick enough on the next day to prevent detection of incoming ships by air, and while the invasion force was ready and the troops on the ground largely intact, their water supplies and any possible air support come into question. Now take away the US carriers, their air support, their fresh water, and put the main Japanese task force nearby. Were the US Navy decimated at Midway, Sand and Eastern islands are on their own.
They need a lot more than that if the second strike takes place.
It's taken very seriously by both the US and British governments, especially prior to Midway, for potentially isolating Allied shipping between the US and Australia/New Zealand.
Six weeks indeed. Below is some information from Yasumasa Matsudiara, and for those willing to look there were some very interesting peace proposals with Japan around the same time - February 1942.
https://history.army.mil/books/wwii/MacArthur Reports/MacArthur V2 P2/Appendix.htm
As soon as Midway is taken they'll probably retreat as you state. Take away McClusky's lucky find especially by having him return to his carrier and the Japanese losses are not so egregious, especially in comparison. They're also likely to begin looking at French Frigate Shoals or Tern Island for a forward base - as will the US.
From what bases? Pearl is fortified but requires a lot of resupply and will likely become a very large encampment. Johnson Island, some of the Phoenix Islands, etc. will also likely get fortified/enlarged immediately, and the Allies have essentially predicted Operation FS which they have to worry about as well. They are not likely to have a whole lot of offensive operations until early 1943 when the Essex-class carriers start becoming available.
Even if the Japanese can take Midway with a force smaller and far weaker in terms of the troops, air support, and naval support, they will be left with a wasteland. You point out the damage the island took during the battle. If there is an actual fight over the island, the end result will be the island is useless. If the Japanese try to garrison it (instead of just bugging out), they are now left with trying to supply a garrison with everything it needs when their nearest base is Wake Island over 1000 miles and that is not a very robust facility and the Marshalls are almost 2000 miles away.
Frankly Athelstane, you should write a TL on the Japanese making an aggressive move into Papua New Guinea and the Solomons in April 1942 (basically no OPERATION C). There are some details in a Darwin capture thread we ran around in a few months back.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-japanese-take-darwin-in-world-war-ii.461264/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_raid
You have two really easy PODs that push the Japanese in this direction. First, the Navy Staff wanted to cut Australia off from the US and this is geared toward that. Second, have the early March raids by the Lexington and Yorktown against Lae cause the Japanese to shit a brick over US activity and have them conclude the US is moving into the Solomons in a big way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Lexington_(CV-2)#Lae-Salamaua_raid
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-japanese-take-darwin-in-world-war-ii.461264/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Ocean_raid
You have two really easy PODs that push the Japanese in this direction. First, the Navy Staff wanted to cut Australia off from the US and this is geared toward that. Second, have the early March raids by the Lexington and Yorktown against Lae cause the Japanese to shit a brick over US activity and have them conclude the US is moving into the Solomons in a big way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Lexington_(CV-2)#Lae-Salamaua_raid
Can't tell you how tempting it is, but I'm such a perfectionist on research, that I never really get very far on this kind of thing.
I hate to do this, but I feel I have to.
I'm genuinely puzzled at some of these points.
Ichiki's men are going to hit the reef, and they're going to be butchered. Lacking any reserves, Nagumo and Kondo will have no choice but to withdraw, aside from any grudge shelling of the island on the way out. They'll need some weeks to assemble a fresh, serious amphibious attack. And by that time...
They *had* to take it seriously, because they were far from certain just what Japanese capabilities really were. Today, of course, we know.
I'm puzzled here, too, because reading the link, I don't see any reference to a 1942 Allied peace initiative. Am I missing something? Wrong link?
I'm genuinely puzzled at some of these points.
- Water supply: Having no drinking water would be a grave issue. But the loss of the power generator and the water lines in the bombing attack didn't pose any immediate threat to the garrison. The water tanks wer eintact. Neither Colonel Shannon's after action report, nor Nimitz's, reports any difficulty here. Shannon makes clear that despite the damage, the garrison was in no immediate danger.
- While above ground buildings were seriously damaged, none of the atoll's sited artillery, bunkers, or fortifications took any damage. Neither did the tanks. There would be little in the way of creature comforts, but they were still in position to provide an intact defense.
- Total KIA from the morning attack, in fact, came to....exactly 6.
- In any event, if you know anything about Shannon and his unit, surrender was simply not part of his vocabulary.
As I noted, its Tarawa, but with better fortifications, more heavy machine guns, light tanks, PT boats inside the lagoon, command detonated mines, and a 7:5 defender:attacker ratio.
The U.S. his Tarawa with 35,000 troops, equipped with Amtracs, forward air controllers coordinating strikes from 11 fast carriers and 5 CVE, naval gunfire observers directing fire from 12 battleships and 8 CA (all of which were heavily loaded with bombardment shells), against ~2,500 Japanese combat troops and a roughly equal number of civilian laborers. The U.S. took the Atoll, at a cost of 1,069 KIA and 1,600 WIA. That was with a 6:1 advantage in numbers
The Japanese planned to have their assault troops wade across 2-400 yard of waist to chest deep water against defenses including 48 .50 cal hmg, 36 .30 cal mg, 37mm anti boat guns equipped to fire canister, 20mm dp guns, six light tanks, and some 1,500 IEDs put together by the Marine defense force while waiting for the attack. This does not include the 3" AAA, 5" and 7" anti-ship batteries (the 7" guns could penetrate the belt of the best IJN heavy cruisers at 12,000 yards). All told there were around 7,000 American personnel on Midway, mostly Marines, including Marine ground crew and some Naval and Army personnel, mainly ground crew. The total Japanese landing force, including two pure construction battalions, was under 5,000 men.
As noted above, great day to be a shark or a seagull.
The U.S. his Tarawa with 35,000 troops, equipped with Amtracs, forward air controllers coordinating strikes from 11 fast carriers and 5 CVE, naval gunfire observers directing fire from 12 battleships and 8 CA (all of which were heavily loaded with bombardment shells), against ~2,500 Japanese combat troops and a roughly equal number of civilian laborers. The U.S. took the Atoll, at a cost of 1,069 KIA and 1,600 WIA. That was with a 6:1 advantage in numbers
The Japanese planned to have their assault troops wade across 2-400 yard of waist to chest deep water against defenses including 48 .50 cal hmg, 36 .30 cal mg, 37mm anti boat guns equipped to fire canister, 20mm dp guns, six light tanks, and some 1,500 IEDs put together by the Marine defense force while waiting for the attack. This does not include the 3" AAA, 5" and 7" anti-ship batteries (the 7" guns could penetrate the belt of the best IJN heavy cruisers at 12,000 yards). All told there were around 7,000 American personnel on Midway, mostly Marines, including Marine ground crew and some Naval and Army personnel, mainly ground crew. The total Japanese landing force, including two pure construction battalions, was under 5,000 men.
As noted above, great day to be a shark or a seagull.
Ichiki's men are going to hit the reef, and they're going to be butchered. Lacking any reserves, Nagumo and Kondo will have no choice but to withdraw, aside from any grudge shelling of the island on the way out. They'll need some weeks to assemble a fresh, serious amphibious attack. And by that time...
They *had* to take it seriously, because they were far from certain just what Japanese capabilities really were. Today, of course, we know.
I'm puzzled here, too, because reading the link, I don't see any reference to a 1942 Allied peace initiative. Am I missing something? Wrong link?
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A crushing defeat at Midway will not help matters either. The airfield at Guadalcanal will give Japanese aircraft additional reach, so the airfield still gets attention but the fleet can also hit any other number of places.
Try a few lines in re: Emperor and peace.
Well, if Shannon were down to just a few days of water, that would be a fairly urgent situation to demand help for, wouldn't it? And yet, he didn't.
But I just can't see how surrender is going to even be an issue. If Nagumo sinks Fletcher's carriers on June 4, invasion is going to follow in short order - probably another bombing attack at dawn, and then Ichiki's men go in. They're slaughtered in fairly short order. Kondo has no men in reserve; he's low on shells; Nagumo is low on aircrew and oil. There might be some desultory shelling on the way out, but they're certainly not going to demand Shannon's surrender over the radio. And Shannon is not going to offer it. Even at Wake, Devereux and Cunningham only surrendered once the Japanese had overrun most of the island. Shannon won't do any less here.
So that's that: the task forces leave. Shannon dials Pearl to report in, and asks for water and/or replacement generator, stat.
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