Keynes' Cruisers Volume 2

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Allied naval strength is steadily increasing in the Pacific. I wonder what will be the next major campaign in the coming ATL months.

Further supporting the liberation of Luzon? Raids on Formosa to prep for an invasion in early 1944? Or Okinawa in 1944 instead? Or something else altogether?
 

Driftless

Donor
I'd guess there would be a fair amount of pressure from the home fronts(US & PI) to overtly relieve the troops on Bataan before moving past - regardless of any military considerations. However, retaking the Philippines would be a costly and time-consuming process. Having said that, the strategic position is much different here than historically, with Burma, Malaya, and some of the DEI firmly in Allied hands and the rest of the DEI and FIC functionally sidelined. With increasing Allied hold over the South China Sea, invading Formosa would certainly jeopardize the Japanese hold on much of southern China and potentially open the possibility of supply by sea for the Chinese.
 
Allied naval strength is steadily increasing in the Pacific. I wonder what will be the next major campaign in the coming ATL months.

Further supporting the liberation of Luzon? Raids on Formosa to prep for an invasion in early 1944? Or Okinawa in 1944 instead? Or something else altogether?

I'd guess there would be a fair amount of pressure from the home fronts(US & PI) to overtly relieve the troops on Bataan before moving past - regardless of any military considerations. However, retaking the Philippines would be a costly and time-consuming process. Having said that, the strategic position is much different here than historically, with Burma, Malaya, and some of the DEI firmly in Allied hands and the rest of the DEI and FIC functionally sidelined. With increasing Allied hold over the South China Sea, invading Formosa would certainly jeopardize the Japanese hold on much of southern China and potentially open the possibility of supply by sea for the Chinese.

Right now the US logistics in South East Asia are at the end a really long route : West Coast to Pearl Harbor, Pearl Harbor to Australia (through the Samoa) and around Australia to the Dutch Indies and Singapore. The UK logistics are similarly stretch thin although they were just eased with the reopening of the Mediterranean Sea.
The biggest exception is the oil is coming from the Theater (Middle East and South East Asia).

So, to ease their logistics, the US needs to blast open Central Pacific to their shipping. They might be able to fight the Philippines campaign (Army led) roughly at the same than the Central Pacific one (Marines Led). After all, OTL, the US fought in Central and South Pacific at the same time.

Indian Ocean, July 18, 1943

HMS Cairo led the small convoy.

With the Japanese pushed far away, I think this is one of the last convoys in the Indian Ocean. The suppression of the convoy system in the Indian Ocean will free some shipping and ease the Allied logistics.

Trafalgar

Never heard of it.



More seriously, with those reinforcements in the Theater, the US Navy alone is more powerful that the combined Allied Fleet during the infamous battle (and the RN is also growing fast in the region).
 

Driftless

Donor
Right now the US logistics in South East Asia are at the end a really long route : West Coast to Pearl Harbor, Pearl Harbor to Australia (through the Samoa) and around Australia to the Dutch Indies and Singapore. The UK logistics are similarly stretch thin although they were just eased with the reopening of the Mediterranean Sea.
The biggest exception is the oil is coming from the Theater (Middle East and South East Asia).

So, to ease their logistics, the US needs to blast open Central Pacific to their shipping. They might be able to fight the Philippines campaign (Army led) roughly at the same than the Central Pacific one (Marines Led). After all, OTL, the US fought in Central and South Pacific at the same time.

No question on the long way around, except that back door has already been blown open by American and Commonwealth forces and the Central Pacific has been the secondary area. The Japanese are in deep tapioca in most/all areas, so it's not the same set of historic problems for either the South China Sea or Central Pacific routes to the Japanese Home Islands. Still, leapfrogging islands in the Central Pacific may take some time. I have no doubt Fester will lay it out for us :cool:
 
With the Japanese pushed far away, I think this is one of the last convoys in the Indian Ocean. The suppression of the convoy system in the Indian Ocean will free some shipping and ease the Allied logistics.

The convoy system in the Indian Ocean is in-place for very high value assets (fleet oilers, troopers etc) but most of the traffic is sailing independently and/or in small impromptu groups that leave a given port daily or every couple of days with minuscule escort beyond whatever guns can be strapped onto a merchant ship.
 
Story 2134

Ventiseri, Corsica, France July 19, 1943



As dawn approached, the new conscripts were running. They were running up a hill and avoiding the construction battalion that was carving a bomber field in the flats near the village, one of the first liberated settlements of occupied France. The new draftees were from the classes that would have been called up since the disaster at Sedan. They had never served and now they would be the first metropolitan replacements for the Army of Liberation; each advance would lead to deeper reserves of manpower transforming the Army from at best a static if not a wasting asset into a growing asset.


Twelve minutes after the men turned around at the top of the hill, a squadron of American built and French manned medium bombers flew overhead. The last of the Italian defenders still needed to be dug out of the positions overlooking the best port on the island.
 
And there are probably going to be a number of people willing to take the risk and try smuggling themselves to Corsica. Hell, it might even become a "pipeline" for resistance personnel who've been identified.
 
I wonder if the Fascist goverment is ready to kick Mussolini out of power and make a peace a deal like OTL. Maybe the Germans are better prepared here.
 
I wonder if the Fascist goverment is ready to kick Mussolini out of power and make a peace a deal like OTL. Maybe the Germans are better prepared here.

I imagine they will soon, good point. I also figure the Germans will be better prepared here simply because the ~200,000 or so members of the DAK that surrendered/were killed in OTL weren't TTL.
 
snip The UK logistics are similarly stretch thin although they were just eased with the reopening of the Mediterranean Sea. snip

The reopening of the Mediterranean to British shipping also opens it to American shipping from the U.S. East coast. Ships sailing From Boston or NYC to the Med and through Suez into the Indian Ocean and around India are taking a shorter route to Singapore and the DEIs then going through Panama and the South Pacific.

Also in this ATL suppressing the Japanese ability to attack Allied shipping in the Central Pacific would mainly involve the reduction of airbases on a number of Japanese held islands and the usual and continuing ASW efforts. In the alternate strategic circumstances of TTL's Pacific War I'm not seeing any pressing reasons to invade any of the Central Pacific islands as was done in OTL.

There are better places and opportunities to use those resources.
 
Story 2135
Wichita, Kansas July 20, 1943

The apron was crowded. Two dozen super-heavy bombers were parked. None of them were capable of flight today. Two could be ready by dawn if there was a clear priority. There was no priority. Instead, hundreds o of mechanics were tearing apart engines and rebuilding the massively powerful and temperamental beasts. Inside the monstrous factory another six hanger queens were being prepared.
 

Driftless

Donor
^^^ Fair to say the Japanese are in a far worse resource (fuel and minerals too?) than historic mid-43? Add to that, their military forces have sustained a considerable loss in men and materials, while the Allies are clearly on the ascendance. Some of the drivers are there for an early appearance of Kamikaze operations: Loss of skilled aviators, little fuel for training, decreasing resource base to make repairs or replacement equipment. The survivors of the Makassar Straits are in the body-and-fender shop, but some of them may be ready for action soon?
 
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