The North Star is Red: a Wallace Presidency, KMT Victory, Alternate Cold War TL
- Thread starter TastySpam
- Start date
If the already fractured Republicans want to win the election, I feel that they'll either have to find a suitable compromise candidate (but I can't think of anybody who they can rally behind) or go with a balanced ticket. My best bet is that the GOP will be forced to run a McCarthy/Goldwater ticket to pick up at least some of the southern states.
I am pretty sure that this conflict will be worse than OTL Vietnam: not only it is a three-way civil war in a country seven times bigger than Vietnam, but ethnic cleansings are also a likely scenario.
Bookmark1995
Banned
Yeah! You have angry oppressed Congolese and brutal Belgian colonists involved. Thankfully America is taking some moral high ground by backing Kasavubu over the neocolonialist Tshombe.
Which I find odd. Wouldn't America be more supportive of Tshombe, who was more pro-Western than any other Congolese politician?
America is not nessicarily Pro West ITTL, Kennedy is pro anyone who kills Commies and gives the Europeans a good kick in the pants, goals that Tshombe would be more than happy to fuffill
I wonder what the anti-war movement will look like in this world. It’s gonna be a much more balanced mixture of left and right wingers it seems.
I actually think it's very unlikely to be worse than Vietnam (which also had ethnic cleansings). Just because in Vietnam, North Vietnam had a fully developed army that defeated the French in a field battle. And they had constant support from the PRC. Jokes about the French military aside, nobody else in the world managed that - including in Algeria (really, the French pretty much played whack-a-mole in Algeria). Congo is really big, but it's less populated than Vietnam (at least this time in history). Lumumba's Africanized Force Publique isn't a full field army.
I think it's pretty clear that all four wars (Indonesia, Congo, Oman, Venezuela) that the Americans are involved in are individually less destructive than Vietnam. But if you combine all four, they're almost certainly more destructive. The worst war for America in these four is probably Venezuela - because the opposition is more internationally sympathetic (not explicitly Communist, earning most of the sympathy of Latin America in a region wary of perceived US imperialism), has far more popular support, and is probably the best army of the four (since they got 50% of the Venezuelan Army). Oman is the least bad by far, since the Americans are really only just there giving logistical support and advice to the British-side of the war.
I don't think America is even anti-European. The enmity is very much one-way. The American stance is that European colonialism is bad for Europe because it's good for Communism - so they want to "encourage" their European "friends" to abandon it. Economic, social, cultural, etc. relations between the US/Europe are still mostly good. They just uh, disagree on foreign policy sometimes.
Probably. Part of that is because the bloodiest, most unpopular Kennedy war is Venezuela - where the opposition isn't explicitly Communist (even though they include many many Communists).
Bookmark1995
Banned
Yeah.
I remember reading about Laurent Kabila, the guy who overthrow Mobutu.
Che Guevara met Kabila and was deeply unimpressed with Kabila's habits. Kabila only managed to take over the Congo because he had outside help and Mobutu had utterly drained his army through his massive corruption.
So yeah, the Congolese rebels (having been denied real training by the Belgian colonial administration) are not going to be as difficult as the Vietcong.
But a prolonged conflict in Central Africa might wear at the patience of the American people.
Venezuela seems far less justifiable, since its leadership can't really be called "pro-Soviet" in their leanings.
It seems like the South America equivalent of 1953 Iran: a democratic nation is having its institutions snuffed out for the "crime" of challenged Western commercial interests.
I feel OTL American leaders banging theirs heads on the table over European nations and their attempts to maintain colonies.
The Suez Crisis involved Eisenhower flipping a shit over Eden's colonial games.
These distance between these far flung regions will make logistics even more challenging than if only one war were going on.
If the US devotes a great deal of manpower and material resources to these wars, then Europe will have to make a greater contribution NATO security to pick up the slack; the US can't draft too many people for a conflict like this. Unfortunately, the two countries that can make the biggest difference are two of the most complex and difficult allies: Germany and Italy.
If the US devotes a great deal of manpower and material resources to these wars, then Europe will have to make a greater contribution NATO security to pick up the slack; the US can't draft too many people for a conflict like this. Unfortunately, the two countries that can make the biggest difference are two of the most complex and difficult allies: Germany and Italy.
Chapter 107 - Serve the People!
Serve the People!
By 1958, the South African Sword of the Nation, the anti-apartheid guerrilla group, had been largely crushed. Most devastatingly for the Sword of the Nation, between 1954-1957, aid from North China more or less ended completely as their supporter was battered in the Three Years War. Anti-Communism in South African society exploded to a peak during the Three Years War, as the South African National Party became increasingly radicalized by violent Communist attacks who indiscriminately targeting civilians. In turn, the South African government also decided to throw collateral damage to the winds, as South African army troops leveled entire shantytowns in order to destroy "pro-Soviet guerillas", which they ruthlessly did. Most of the ANC civilian leadership, such as Nelson Mandela, and 155 other members were tried for treason. In early 1958, the vast majority were pronounced guilty and sentenced to death.[1] This was viewed rather negatively even among white South Africans, who thought the government had gone too far.
Prime Minister Malan retired in 1953, turning power over to his anointed heir, Klasie Havenga, who then immediately was defeated in a leadership election because the National Party membership viewed him as too moderate. He was defeated by J. G. Strijdom, who then saw his political career destroyed in 1958. Even after disenfranchising all Colored voters, Anglos actually slightly outnumbered Boers in South Africa, which was exceedingly bad for the Nationals because the United Party got more Afrikaner votes than the Nationals got Anglo votes. National Party dominance was more or less entirely built on the better distribution of Afrikaner voters in the first-past-the-post parliamentary system. And although the National Government had been more or less "winning" the war, the gruesome cost of the war alienated many South African voters.
As a result, Strijdom was also turfed out after the disastrous 1958 elections. The moderates also disliked him for being too hostile to Great Britain, which for all their complaints, was still a loyal supporter of South Africa. He was also in ill health, which sealed his political fate. Although the South African insurgency forced the regime to become far more radical on security issues, it highlighted to some in the National Party that anti-Anglo sentiment put the lives of white South Africans at risk by jeopardizing British support of South Africa, which was crucial. Interestingly, D.F. Malan had loathed Strijdom and the two had feuded for almost a decade over the issue of Republicanism. Malan wasn't opposed to Republicanism (publicly, he was for it), but he viewed it as too divisive of an issue. Malan, although unpopular among the top leaders of the National Party, was popular among the rank and file, and when he returned , he lambasted Srijdom and openly threw all of his support behind Donges. The Nationals, rather half-heartedly, voted for the somewhat more moderate Donges, who largely shared Malan's views.
Donges first speech as Prime Minister was directed largely at Anglo voters of the United Party, claiming that (white) South Africans had to unite against "native Communism" - and that the historical enmity with Great Britain had to be put to the side for a greater cause (that being white supremacy, which he appropriated as the justification for his moderation). He quietly commuted the death sentences of the ANC leaders in the treason trial, justifying it as an act of good will towards Great Britain. In a rage, the extremist Albert Hertzog led a walkout of the most radical National Party members, forming the Reconstituted National Party (or Herstigte Nasionale Party, HNP), which campaigned on making Afrikaans the only official language of South Africa. Donges was no moderate on apartheid, but he certainly looked like one next to Hertzog!
However, repression against anti-apartheid activists continued, except this time with explicit support from most of the European powers. South Africa strategically garnered good will in Europe by being one of the first nations on the ground to aid devastated Sweden, and they aimed to make good on this. However, resistance was not to be defeated so easily. Another rebellion exploded in Namibia, led by Neville Alexander and Ottilie Abrahams, who managed to escape the Treason trials that decapitated the African National Congress. Former Trotyskites, they splintered and adopted instead the creed of Mao Zedong, as evidenced in the name of their new guerilla group, the Yu Chi Chang (a slightly-off romanization of the Chinese word for guerilla warfare). The Yu Chin Chang, taking advantage of the vastness of the Kalahari, waged a Maoist-style war against the South African government. Abrahams, who had close ties with Namibian independence activists, brought many along when the crushing oppression of the apartheid regime seemed more pressing than specifically Namibian independence.
The breakout of war in Namibia coincided with the breakout of war in Portuguese Angola, as both the MPLA and FNLA revolted against Portuguese authorities. Critical to both of these wars was the fate of the Central African Federation, still under the rule of Roy Welensky. Welensky had to face both guerilla resistance at home, as well as British demands that large parts of the Rhodesian Armed Forces be sent to assist the OAS in Congo. Welensky was also opposed by radicals in Rhodesia himself as Welensky, although a supporter of British imperialism, was not an explicit white supremacist and supported black suffrage...in theory...eventually. Support to all of these rebels filtered in from the Eastern Bloc, but it had to take a circuitous route - namely into Sudan (which was suffering through serious probelms of it own, so it had to be sneaked through) and only then into the Congo. What Lumumba couldn't use was then shipped to rebels in the CAF - and only then what they couldn't use was shipped to Namibia and Angola. This was at least, what the British believed. In many ways, fear that Tanzania would be used as a port of destination for Communist arms shipments is what compelled Britain to so ferociously renege on its independence promises to Tanzanians. This required the British Army to operate in Uganda, Sudan, Egypt, and Tanzania.
The British, aware of how hard it was to normally ship arms to these nations, were still confused as to how so many arms were still getting across. What they did not know was that Idi Amin, the ostensibly pro-Western military leader of the Kenyan Army, was allowing Soviet arms to flow into Uganda (also revolting against British rule due to outrage over the white settler dominated government of Kenya) and the Congo in hopes of justifying a Kenyan intervention into his home country, whereupon he could then take control. In many ways, Idi Amin's ploy saved many of these revolutionary movements, although he did so only out of ruthless power politics. His plan was as follows: 1) force the British out of Uganda, where they would be replaced with a leftist, anti-Western government; 2) invade Uganda, 3) turn Uganda into his power base by conscripting as many locals as possible, 4) seize power in Kenya itself, establishing his dominance over all of East Africa. Indeed, what Idi Amin dreamed of what was not an East African Federation - but an East African Empire.
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[1] OTL, all were acquitted. ITL, they're all spooked by Communism.
I would imagine that South Africa would be more open to white immigration and settlement at this point? I'm surprised they never took that strategy in OTL.
1. Well, they weren't totally against it. There's even a prominent member of the National Party who was a Holocaust survivor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vera_Reitzer
2. That being said, the OTL government wasn't totally gung-ho at the start, because they were very much kind of an Afrikaner chauvinist group that distrusted Anglos and suspected most European immigrants would assimilate to Anglo culture.
3. That being said, they did become more moderate on this - but South Africa wasn't even that great for whites either. Many English-speaking whites actually emigrated. Strict social controls (curfew, censorship, etc.) was unpopular, while the economy wasn't that good because so much of it was spent on security/wars/etc. Crime was also extremely high.
South Africa is one of the most dangerous countries in the world today based on crime - but that's not actually a new phenomenom of the post-apartheid order. It was incredibly high under apartheid too.
