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Chapter Three
With the signing of the Changchun Accord, the Second Chinese Civil War passed into history. (1) On one level, it had been a relatively brief conflict. Only twelve months passed between the surrender of Imperial Japan and the Changchun peace. With the exception of some low-level battles in Inner Mongolia, the fighting had also taken place solely in Manchuria. The great cities of China, Beijing and Shanghai, Nanjing and Chengdu, Xian and Chongqing, had seen no more of the Red Army than Mao's face on propaganda posters vilifying the CCP. For the vast majority of China, reconstruction from the Japanese war was the order of the day and had been so for the past year. The vast majority of Han Chinese were grateful to Chiang for freeing them from a decade of war and viewed the KMT as the legitimate government, one which they could throw their weight behind. So in terms of its impact on the general population, the conflict had been fairly minor.
Yet, the impacts of the Second Chinese Civil War were in fact tremendously deep. One postwar historian was not wrong in calling it "the most significant postwar development in East Asia up to the present." Manchuria lay in ruins. China was divided for the foreseeable future. Yet, most importantly, another nuclear weapon had been used by the United States. Many now felt that Truman had set an example: the atomic bomb was a weapon which could be used if it was absolutely necessary.
China is now divided in two, with neither side the total victor. Although Chiang Kai-shek's Republic of China controls the vast majority of the country at its 1912 borders, its victory is by no means total. Manchuria and North Shaanxi are united as Mao's Soviet puppet. Although a cease-fire is in effect between the two, neither recognises the other, and Chiang retains a claim to the territory of the People's Republic of North China. As with Mao, so with Mongolia. What had once been a Qing province is now a nation all its own, albeit a Soviet puppet. Chiang, however, continues to claim the country as his own, not recognising it as independent. The Second East Turkestan Republic is receiving Soviet military aid and enjoys diplomatic relations with the Eastern bloc, while Tibet retains its de facto independence. At the time of the Changchun cease-fire, no-one is sure if the arrangement would hold. Would the Red Army continue to pour men into China, and if they did, would they be met with American nuclear bombs? And if so, would that escalate to a nuclear bombing of all the Soviet cities? Or would the cease-fire hold, and a formal peace treaty be signed formalising the new status quo amongst a quarter of humanity? As it turned out, the answer is neither. Days lengthened into weeks and months, and it became clear that the two sides were not about to start shooting again, but nor were they about to sign a peace treaty and fully let bygones be bygones. (2)
In the new Republic of China, there is a great deal of optimism. Once it becomes clear that the cease-fire will carry on into the immediate future, 460 million people begin to look towards the future, and reconstruct from the past. A great deal of positive feeling for Chiang exists, as in spite of his myriad faults, he has led the country through warlordism and the Second World War. The US is also conveniently overlooking the Kuomintang’s distinctly unfree style of rule. The Nationalist Party remains the sole legal political party, and dissidents and critics are punished harshly. Nonetheless, a return to war is so feared that many will give Chiang the benefit of the doubt...
The People’s Republic of North China, by contrast, seems to be gripped with uncertainty. Mao Zedong knows all too well that his regime exists only because of the Red Army, and that he must do Moscow’s bidding if he wishes to survive. In spite of the Changchun Accords, Red Army troops continue to be present in his country. Mao takes steps to solidify his power, having himself promoted as “Chairman Mao” (毛主席, Mao zuhxi). His Foreign Minister and number three in the Party is Zhou Enlai, while Liu Shaoqi is the formal president of the People’s Republic of North China (in keeping with the Stalinist tradition of the Communist Party being more powerful than the actual state) and No. 2 in the Party. Marshal Lin Biao is commander-in-chief of the People’s Liberation Army, Mao’s grandiosely titled army, while Marshal Peng Dehuai is the commander of all forces in the Yan’an region, cut off from the rest of the PRNC. A personality cult around Mao is developed- his portrait is hung in all public places, especially in Harbin, while a plethora of propaganda posters saturate Mao’s new subjects with pro-regime messages.
With a little background information in place, this update will cover the 1940s…
December 2, 1946: The 79th US Congress passes the Aid to the Republic of China Act by 466-69. The act provides for $8 billion dollars ($64 billion, very approximately, in today’s dollars) in military and economic aid to the Nationalists. Thanks in large part to this generous American aid, the KMT capital of Nanjing is fully reconstructed within four years, the damage from the 1937 Rape of Nanjing still very much left done. The act also helps to better integrate Taiwan into the ROC after decades of Japanese rule.
Additionally, some old World War II surplus equipment is sold to Chiang, including fifty B-25 bombers and twenty-five M4 Shermans. The US has an abundance of such equipment floating around and is more than happy to give some to Chiang.
December 19, 1946: Fighting breaks out between French colonial troops and Vietnamese rebels known as the Viet Cong, led by Ho Chi Minh. This rapidly escalates into a full-fledged uprising, and Vietnamese general Vo Nguyen Giap makes plans to assault Hanoi with thirty thousand men. French troops are shipped in to hold down the colony.
In a private audience a week later, V.K. “Wellington” Koo, Chiang’s ambassador to the United States, says that China is planning to adopt a posture of pro-French neutrality: namely, slipping weapons covertly to the French and not allowing Viet Minh troops to slip into China.
February 1947: In Harbin, work begins on two new structures designed to make the city into a Communist capital: the Great Hall of the People’s Congress and Chairman Leadership Compound (主席领导组合, Zhǔxí lǐngdǎo zǔhé). In order to accommodate these structures, Zhaolin Park and the Temple of Heavenly Bliss are both torn down. The Chairman Leadership Compound will be completed in nine months and will cost a total of 900,000 yuan- a shockingly high sum for a personality-cult project.
Projects such as these are funded in large part by the Soviets, who give the PRNC industrial equipment and money in considerable quantities. (3)
1947: During the year 1947, the Viet Minh take their cues from Mao during the Civil War and WWII. Namely, they flee and adopt a policy of guerilla warfare, not meeting the French in open battle. Covert Chinese hostility means that they have no support and Ho Chi Minh knows that his survival depends on if he can make the French bleed enough that they will throw in the towel.
March 27, 1947: As a response to Soviet-backed coup attempts in Greece and Turkey, the Truman Doctrine is announced, committing the US to anticommunism.
August 15, 1947: India and Pakistan formally gain independence from British rule. The granting of independence weakens London greatly in the long term, marking its decline as an imperial power. A dispute over the border region of Kashmir puts the two states- one Hindu, the other Muslim- on bad terms from the get-go.
October 7- November 8, 1947: The French launch Operation Lea against the rebels in Vietnam. Although Ho Chi Minh and General Giap manage to escape, the Viet Minh suffer 6,000 casualties, for them a serious loss, and their territory is considerably reduced.
By this point, the war has reached a stalemate. Neither side can make much headway- domestic politics prevent a further escalation of the war on France’s part, while the Viet Minh lack the strength to do much.
It is at this stage that the Chinese spy an opportunity. In exchange for certain economic benefits, Chiang agrees to intervene in the Vietnamese conflict…
December 25, 1947: The Christmas Day Offensive (圣诞节攻势, Shèngdàn jié gōngshì) begins. 400,000 KMT troops cross the border between Yunnan and northern Vietnam and engage in combat with Ho Chi Minh’s forces. The commander of the force is General Li Zongren, veteran of the KMT army for two decades. Although morale and junior leadership continue to be major issues for the Nationalist army, the Vietnamese field armies are brushed aside with relative ease, and within four weeks a rendezvous with the French has been achieved.
Ho himself flees to Shenyang in Mao’s China, where he will die in 1969. The Nationalist army, however, is not properly prepared for a long anti-guerilla conflict in northern Indochina, and as such the Viet Minh is never completely eradicated.
January 1, 1948: The Treaty of Hanoi is signed. France recognises the independence of the Empire of Vietnam, the Kingdom of Laos, and the Kingdom of Cambodia. The leader of Vietnam is Bao Dai, leader of the ancient Vietnamese kingdom before it was conquered by the French when he was a boy. All three states are French client states, with little economic independence, and Paris retains de facto control over foreign policy. The Chinese, however, manage to retain a sphere of influence in the Empire of Vietnam, everything north of 21.20 degrees north. Chinese troops are stationed in military bases in northern Vietnam, and Chinese businessmen dominate the economy of the local region (to the anger of locals). The French are not perfectly pleased with this- they dislike what they perceive as Chiang trying to make Indochina his- but it is better than relinquishing control totally.
January 1, 1948: In the People’s Republic of North China, Mao launches his “Campaign to Eliminate Counter-Revolutionary Cultural Aspects.” (4) This involves a major crackdown on corruption, as well as the expulsion of virtually all Westerners. Christians are also targeted heavily, as are ethnic Japanese. All writers, artists, and the like are forced to submit to the genre of “socialist realism” or face death. Some try to flee abroad, but the Communist bloc states refuse to accept refugees, and anyone who attempts to defect to Nationalist China faces death if caught, and their family will suffer.
A general crackdown on perceived Nationalist spies begins, with many who have had significant dealings with the ROC being purged and executed. In addition, collectivisation is also implemented, although this will take place slowly.
The totalitarian campaign creates something of a rift within the CCP. Mao, Lin Biao, Zhou Enlai, and Kang Sheng are all for it, while Liu Shaoqi and others have their reservations.
April 2, 1948: Chiang Kai-shek announces in a televised speech that the city of Shenzhen, bordering British Hong Kong, will become China’s first Open Investment Zone. (5) Almost all restrictions on foreign trade are abolished in the city, and regulations seriously loosened. Firms which relocate to Shenzhen are given a small subsidy by the government.
The end result is that by the end of the year, Shenzhen becomes a haven of Western investment. Many Western firms find that low-cost Chinese labour is a more cost-effective means of manufacturing than doing so in the US, or wherever else their plants might be located.
By the end of 1949, similar zones will be opened in Nanjing, Shanghai, Qingdao, and Beijing, and the Westerners will come knocking.
The gains of this policy, however, are not evenly distributed- a small number of Chinese tycoons become inordinately rich, but they all have some kind of connection to Chiang and the Nationalist Party. The workers who toil away in sweatshops for twelve hours a day and next to nothing in terms of pay are bitter towards Chiang. Some radicals begin to look towards Marxism, but they are too few in number to do much. Mao, however, is noticing all of this…
April 3, 1948: The Marshall Plan is created, proving $12 billion in aid to Western Europe.
May 23, 1948: The Americans, French, and British combine their occupation zones in Germany to form the Federal Republic of Germany, or West Germany. The Soviets follow suit on October 7, with the creation of communist East Germany.
November 2, 1948: In a close election (even closer than OTL), Harry Truman beats Thomas Dewey to the presidency. One of his campaign promises is to never use nuclear weapons unless a foreign power does so first.
April 4, 1949: NATO is created, an alliance designed to counter Soviet power. The founding members are the same as OTL. The Republic of China opts not to join, as it is not an Atlantic nation, but instead signs a pact with the USA.
August 29, 1949: The USSR explodes its first atomic bomb in Kazakhstan. Stalin keeps the news secret for a time, but there is immense pride amongst the Soviet leadership at being admitted into the nuclear club. The age of nuclear competition has well and truly begun...
(1) Eastern bloc historians claimed the date of peace as October 1, the founding of the PRNC.
(2) Analogous to the OTL Korean War never formally ending.
(3) This is in large part OTL.
(4) Loosely based off of Chiang's New Life Movement of the 1920s. This is sort of a Communist version.
(5) Do I need to explain it?