WI: Japanese Invasion of Philippines and East Indies... in 1590s

[Dolan]

Let's say that, after unifying Japan, Toyotomi Hideyoshi has the need to mitigate the possible threat of brigandry or rebellion posed by a large number of now-idle samurai soldiers in unified Japan. He also needs military supremacy to justify his rule as Shogun, considering he lacks any kind of bloodline connections to the past, so...

IOTL, he set to subjugate the neighboring state of Korea, and some might say that he set his eyes to conquering China, but what if the European trying to subdue the East Indies alarmed him that he is now set to at least earn some colonies Down South instead?

Let's say that ITTL, instead of invading Korea, Hideyoshi ordered the very same invasion forces to actually go south and attack Spanish holding at the Philippines, before trying to forcing his way down by conquering Borneo and Celebes, with the aim to capture Mollucas from the Dutch?

Assuming the invasion was successful, the Japanese managed to hold out against the Spanish/Dutch counterattacks, the "potentially troublesome" Daimyos get their land at the new "Japanese East Indies", and Japanese thus practically control the source of Spice Trade, what is the effect on European Colonization/Imperialism? Looking that an Asian power decided to go toe-to-toe against them (instead of shutting themselves like OTL)

 

[kasumigenx]

Let's say that, after unifying Japan, Toyotomi Hideyoshi has the need to mitigate the possible threat of brigandry or rebellion posed by a large number of now-idle samurai soldiers in unified Japan. He also needs military supremacy to justify his rule as Shogun, considering he lacks any kind of bloodline connections to the past, so...

IOTL, he set to subjugate the neighboring state of Korea, and some might say that he set his eyes to conquering China, but what if the European trying to subdue the East Indies alarmed him that he is now set to at least earn some colonies Down South instead?

Let's say that ITTL, instead of invading Korea, Hideyoshi ordered the very same invasion forces to actually go south and attack Spanish holding at the Philippines, before trying to forcing his way down by conquering Borneo and Celebes, with the aim to capture Mollucas from the Dutch?

Assuming the invasion was successful, the Japanese managed to hold out against the Spanish/Dutch counterattacks, the "potentially troublesome" Daimyos get their land at the new "Japanese East Indies", and Japanese thus practically control the source of Spice Trade, what is the effect on European Colonization/Imperialism? Looking that an Asian power decided to go toe-to-toe against them (instead of shutting themselves like OTL)

No, Japan was an ally of Brunei, they would rather help Brunei rather than invading that territory and overextend themselves.

We should remember that in the Tondo conspiracy Brunei and Japan allied.

 

[Dolan]

No, Japan was an ally of Brunei, they would rather help Brunei rather than invading that territory and overextend themselves.

We should remember that in the Tondo conspiracy Brunei and Japan allied.

Let's say that they still asked for sizeable area of North Philippines then, while going south directly to invade Moluccas at later date, maybe in conjunction with Brunei as well...

 

[History Learner]

Spain's naval forces are probably sufficient to prevent this, although if the Japanese get a significant toehold into the area there just isn't enough Spainards in the area to contest such a move. In the long run, however, such would be good for Spain; without the China trade, Spanish manufacturers would be stronger and there would be no drain of silver into Asia. Speaking of which, between Japan and the loss of the Galleon trade, China has just lost its supply of silver.....

 

[kasumigenx]

Let's say that they still asked for sizeable area of North Philippines then, while going south directly to invade Moluccas at later date, maybe in conjunction with Brunei as well...

North Philippines is under Bruneian influence so the Japanese would be granted trading rights, factories and bruneian help to end the christian missionaries although the Japanese could get Batanes.

 

[Monter]

We should remember that in the Tondo conspiracy Brunei and Japan allied.

Yes and no, the conspiracy involved Japanese seamen, but there is no record of such alliance being made by Toyotomi, the man who ruled Japan, it was more of a private initiative than a actual alliance, also the Japanese promised service for Legazpi, not directly to Brunei.

 

[YusaEmi]

No, Japan was an ally of Brunei, they would rather help Brunei rather than invading that territory and overextend themselves.

We should remember that in the Tondo conspiracy Brunei and Japan allied.

They could be allies for the moment, nothing would stop Japan from backstabbing the Bruneians.

 

[kasumigenx]

Yes and no, the conspiracy involved Japanese seamen, but there is no record of such alliance being made by Toyotomi, the man who ruled Japan, it was more of a private initiative than a actual alliance, also the Japanese promised service for Legazpi, not directly to Brunei.

Yes, but the Bruneians are involved in the conspiracy as well.

They could be allies for the moment, nothing would stop Japan from backstabbing the Bruneians.

The Japanese at that time don't want to be overstretched even if they have crazy rulers, they are not westerners who want to colonize and Brunei and Japan has strategic reasons to ally because the Bruneians were more favorable to the Japanese without strings attached...i.e. Missionaries when they were trading in Luzon.

I think there is also a possibility of the Japanese propping up a puppet Kingdom in Northern Luzon ruled by the enemies of the Bruneians as a puppet state.

 

[Namayan]

Yes, but the Bruneians are involved in the conspiracy as well.



The Japanese at that time don't want to be overstretched even if they have crazy rulers, they are not westerners who want to colonize and Brunei and Japan has strategic reasons to ally because the Bruneians were more favorable to the Japanese without strings attached...i.e. Missionaries when they were trading in Luzon.

I think there is also a possibility of the Japanese propping up a puppet Kingdom in Northern Luzon ruled by the enemies of the Bruneians as a puppet state.

stretching applies to Brunei as well. OTL, the Japanese had more Japanese migrants than loyal Islamic Brunei or its Islamic vassal/tributary citizens in Luzon by 1590s.

if the Japanese will ally with someone, it would be the local Lakans who are Christian by this time nor are these Lakans loyal to Brunei even if you take out Christianity from them.

Brunei isnt needed at all by a Japanese trying to invade Luzon. 100,000 people 1 km away helping the Japanese is far better than 1,000 bruenians helping from 1,000 kms away.

 

[YusaEmi]

And what is the fate of Ryukyu and Taiwan in this timeline?

If Japan intends on invading and conquering Luzon it will also plan on settling and establishing control of the Okinawan Islands and Taiwan. Over time Luzon and Taiwan would be gradually settled by Japanese people and could potentially be used as a penal colony for any of the more rebellious factions in Japan.

 

[kasumigenx]

stretching applies to Brunei as well. OTL, the Japanese had more Japanese migrants than loyal Islamic Brunei or its Islamic vassal/tributary citizens in Luzon by 1590s.

if the Japanese will ally with someone, it would be the local Lakans who are Christian by this time nor are these Lakans loyal to Brunei even if you take out Christianity from them.

Brunei isnt needed at all by a Japanese trying to invade Luzon. 100,000 people 1 km away helping the Japanese is far better than 1,000 bruenians helping from 1,000 kms away.

Luzon is divided at this point between the Bruneians and their enemies in the north who were sour graping at the loss of Tondo which might ally with the Japanese as a Client state, yeah an alliance or Client state with the Japanese is possible since the Japanese were trading with Majapahit via them.

And what is the fate of Ryukyu and Taiwan in this timeline?

If Japan intends on invading and conquering Luzon it will also plan on settling and establishing control of the Okinawan Islands and Taiwan. Over time Luzon and Taiwan would be gradually settled by Japanese people and could potentially be used as a penal colony for any of the more rebellious factions in Japan.

I don't think so, although Taiwan is a possibility.