Could Vinland expand into America?

[chornedsnorkack]

A centralized government would assist in protection from Native Tribes allowing far quicker expansion into the interior. A norse America is gonna be pretty pathetic if a fifth of its population gets devastated by war on the borders every other year or so. Also a centralized government could maintain a far more complex system of alliances with native tribes and probably enforce a protective layer of Christianized vassal tribes. Accomplishing this would be much more unlikely in the event of a decentralized Icelandic allthing.

Normans who conquered South Italy in 11th century did so as several bands of mercenaries who separately migrated to South Italy, got employment with locals and eventually turned on them. They were eventually united... but Hautevilles did NOT enjoy active ongoing support from Duke of Normandy.

If Norman mercenary bands overthrow Tollan in 1179 and Chichen Itza in 1181 allied with local warlords, it does not mean they need to be backed by a king in Naples, Rouen or Newfoundland.

 

[galanx]

Marble sugar would likely be the highest value goods,

I had marble sugar once. Not bad, but kept rolling off my toast. (Sorry, had to do it.)

 

[altwere]

I have made maple mead in the past, If I remember correctly I used 1/2 gallon of syrup to 5 gallons of water. Mix the syrup in 2-3 gallons of water in a stock pot and boil for a half an hour to an hour, let cool and place in a carboy with the rest of the water. Add yeast, I used a whitbread beer yeast, put in the air lock and let ferment. It will take a week or two. I was nice light colored crust drink.
This spring I made beer out of sap. I needed to boil all five gallons I brought three gallons to a roiling boil and set it aside. The other two gallons I mixing with a light beer malt and boiled for an hour. I put the yeast in to soon and killed the yeast, So I repitched the yeast the next day.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Sorry but Norway's weakness lies in it's Demographics. No Amount of trade will fix that. Its either Denmark-Norway or Sweden-Norway.

Conquests can.
And Vinland is better placed to defend itself against conquests than OTL Iceland was. And has the interest and means to defend Iceland, too.

Not too sure on the need for European slaves. I suppose theres a chance that the Norse could get sick of Native slaves constantly dying like the Spanish OTL. Perhaps initially when settlement is confined to Newfoundland and the some 500 or so Beothuk populations are spread out pretty wide it may seem like a good idea to bring European slaves especially if your a Greenlander who doesn't have the faintest clue how to grow wheat.

Greenlanders DID know how to grow barley. Archeological evidence. Finds of barley, uncleaned so clearly local harvest not import. At least sometimes they got crops.
Newfoundland would be warmer than Greenland and good for reliable barley crops. The tiny patches of fields and meadows at the heads of fiords of southern Greenland could support perhaps 3000...4000 medieval people. Iceland could support maybe 30 000 medieval people and definitely did grow crops.

How lovely the slopes are, more lovely than they have ever seemed to me before, golden cornfields and new-mown hay.

Ireland is smaller than Iceland - and had over a million people in Middle Ages.

Newfoundland is bigger that Iceland or Ireland, less mountainous than Iceland or Ireland and warmer than Iceland but colder than Ireland. It seems a reasonable guess that high medieval Norse barley growers and cow and sheep grazers could keep 100 000 people on Newfoundland.

If Norse come to Vinland to grow barley then Newfoundland is warm enough for them. And the first 3000 or even 30 000 Norse on Newfoundland won´t be short of land either. Neither are urgent reasons to move beyond Newfoundland to Saint Lawrence or Maritimes.

The Norse surely would explore well beyond their settlements. (Erik the Red with his one ship and three years of exile explored Greenland coast all the way to Disko Island). But if they settle far south of their compact settlement, they are looking for something else than barley.

When they sail far enough, they will find maize and people who know how to grow maize. Somewhere around Montreal and Boston.

But that´s the northern limit, where maize grows poorly. And it won´t grow at all further north.

Barley could be grown further south, but it does not give much advantage over Newfoundland. So what can the Norse find between Newfoundland and the maize growers of Montreal and Boston?

Newfoundland is too cold for wheat. Wheat might be grown in Maritimes, but why settle there in the first place so long as Newfoundland is enough?

Mind you, when Norse do settle at Montreal, wheat would grow there. So would barley - but wheat would be useful for diversification.

Then the Norse would indeed benefit from importing wheat and Irish (slave or free) to teach how to grow it.

 

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

Normans who conquered South Italy in 11th century did so as several bands of mercenaries who separately migrated to South Italy, got employment with locals and eventually turned on them. They were eventually united... but Hautevilles did NOT enjoy active ongoing support from Duke of Normandy.

While thats possible its still very unlikely (well unless the Mercenaries spread a devastating disease and decide to stay as a ruling class.). While Norse Mercenaries armed with swords(if they can afford them), hauberks and helmets would be like tanks as flint and obsidian tipped weapons would do little but unless these are Norse from southern climes they will be near incapable of fighting in the Yucatan without heavy support. A disciplined force can be expected to buck up and endure but some mercenaries that would most likely be only a few steps above being a criminal would likely start to waver.

Conquests can.

Not really. The only times a weaker and lower populated power was able to dominate a bigger one is if they were especially good at warfare/rich enough to hire enough Mercenaries to bridge the gap or the bigger power was suffering from incompetence and corruption. While in the viking age its very plausible that Norway could dominate the Norse world and they did at times but after the viking age it becomes a different story.

And Vinland is better placed to defend itself against conquests than OTL Iceland was. And has the interest and means to defend Iceland, too.

What? I was specifically referring to Norway, Iceland I completely agree and doubt the Norwegians would even care enough to organize an invasion or anything. Though if anything the roles may be reversed with Vinland dominating Iceland even though they couldn't pressure it they would have far more motivation to do so.

Greenlanders DID know how to grow barley. Archeological evidence. Finds of barley, uncleaned so clearly local harvest not import. At least sometimes they got crops.

There are some non-semantic differences in growing wheat as opposed to Barley.

Newfoundland is too cold for wheat. Wheat might be grown in Maritimes, but why settle there in the first place so long as Newfoundland is enough?

In southern Newfoundland it can, also the Medieval Warm period was warmer than today so it's range was probably much farther north.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Not really. The only times a weaker and lower populated power was able to dominate a bigger one is if they were especially good at warfare/rich enough to hire enough Mercenaries to bridge the gap or the bigger power was suffering from incompetence and corruption. While in the viking age its very plausible that Norway could dominate the Norse world and they did at times but after the viking age it becomes a different story.



What? I was specifically referring to Norway, Iceland I completely agree and doubt the Norwegians would even care enough to organize an invasion or anything.

Sweden was not all that populous before 1645. It is not obvious from present map, but Skane, Halland and Blekinge were Denmark for a very long time, and Bohuslän, Jämtland and Härjedalen were Norway.
On the other hand, in 10th...11th century, it was not granted that a kingdom ruling Fiord Norway would also rule Oslo - Denmark often reached to Oslo.

With Vinland in the fray, Norway would be smaller and poorer than OTL, slightly, because Norway would not be able to annex Iceland. And some of the trade of Iceland, OTL monopolized by Norway, would go to triangular trade Vinland-Britain-Iceland.

Though if anything the roles may be reversed with Vinland dominating Iceland even though they couldn't pressure it they would have far more motivation to do so.
There are some non-semantic differences in growing wheat as opposed to Barley.
In southern Newfoundland it can, also the Medieval Warm period was warmer than today so it's range was probably much farther north.

Yes. My point is that at first, the Norse can 1) stay in northern Newfoundland and not expand to South, and 2) when they expand to South, stick to barley even though they might also grow wheat (or rye).

As I said, the first Norse who settle ahead of others who stay in Northern Newfoundland need motivations other than barley.

My guess is - trade.
Where would they settle and what would they do there?

 

[TimTurner]

What? I was specifically referring to Norway, Iceland I completely agree and doubt the Norwegians would even care enough to organize an invasion or anything. Though if anything the roles may be reversed with Vinland dominating Iceland even though they couldn't pressure it they would have far more motivation to do so.

a la Brazil and Portugal?

 

[Mikestone8]

As I said, the first Norse who settle ahead of others who stay in Northern Newfoundland need motivations other than barley.

My guess is - trade.

Or violence.

These Norseman were given to feuds, and the losers in one or more of these might find it necessary to move.

 

[Shevek23]

I have made maple mead in the past, If I remember correctly I used 1/2 gallon of syrup to 5 gallons of water. Mix the syrup in 2-3 gallons of water in a stock pot and boil for a half an hour to an hour, let cool and place in a carboy with the rest of the water. Add yeast, I used a whitbread beer yeast, put in the air lock and let ferment. It will take a week or two. I was nice light colored crust drink.
This spring I made beer out of sap. I needed to boil all five gallons I brought three gallons to a roiling boil and set it aside. The other two gallons I mixing with a light beer malt and boiled for an hour. I put the yeast in to soon and killed the yeast, So I repitched the yeast the next day.

OK! What did it taste like?

 

[Shevek23]

When they sail far enough, they will find maize and people who know how to grow maize. Somewhere around Montreal and Boston.

But that´s the northern limit, where maize grows poorly. And it won´t grow at all further north.

Just saying, prior to maize and its "sister" crops--beans, peppers, squash--adapting from their Mesoamerican cradle-lands and with successive generations of adaptation to farther northerly cultivation, the Native peoples of North America were not pre-agricultural; rather, they developed numerous crops more suited initially to more northerly conditions, and abandoned many of them when the superior Mesoamerican package became available.

Now I have no idea exactly what the pre-"sisters" crop package was in the farthest northeast reaches and I suppose that far northeast reach was still well south of Newfoundland. But there are other Native American crops to adopt.

In general, the Americas produced a vast diversity of many useful plants that as an outcome of the Columbian Exchange transformed the old world, many of them spreading very rapidly, such as peanuts to China; one driver of Early Modern Era population growth was the superior array of new crops adopted in the Old World. Again I have to admit quite few of these would be in easy reach of Newfoundland, and finding new ones farther south does Vinlanders little good in Newfoundland. They'd have to move southward, and the main way to get that fast would be to leapfrog down the coast, to southern New England or New York, Long Island say. Or press on to Chesapeake Bay. If they are comfortable enough in Newfoundland it might be a long time before they try any of these colonization moves.

Their more likely direction of expansion is of course up the St Lawrence.

I do suppose that basically, it would be old world crops, adapted to Scandinavia in fact, that would be of most immediate use to them--fortunately if they stay in contact with Iceland and points east getting seeds and people who know how to cultivate them should be little problem.

Given the OTL role American crops had, it would be kind of ironic if it were Old World crops that transform northeastern Native conditions.

 

[Jürgen]

.

Sorry but Norway's weakness lies in it's Demographics. No Amount of trade will fix that. Its either Denmark-Norway or Sweden-Norway.
.

Demography means less in the medieval and early modern. period, Mecklenburg was one of the major actor in the period even with their smaller population, thanks to position on the trading route. Bergen will be placed on a major trading route, even if it hinterland can’t feed it, Baltic cereal can feed it. So the limit of the size of the city will be money and logistic, not whatever Vestlandet can produce. The strength of Norway will depend on whether the king can keep some control over Bergen and Nidaros, if he can he will have greater resources to throw into conflict elsewhere (likely Scotland and the Irish Sea), if he can’t he will be able reduce to petty kingdom around Oslo/the Vik, which would fall to the Danes.

 

[Jürgen]

Newfoundland would be warmer than Greenland and good for reliable barley crops. The tiny patches of fields and meadows at the heads of fiords of southern Greenland could support perhaps 3000...4000 medieval people. Iceland could support maybe 30 000 medieval people and definitely did grow crops..

Iceland had 80.000 people before the Black Plague and Little Ice Age, from 1400-1800 it had between 40-60.000 inhabitants, 40.000 people after a major epidemic or plague had hit, and 60.000 when it had had a generation of two to grow.

I suspect that 1500 Newfoundland would have a similar population to Norway, which would mean around 400.000 people.

 

[Lord High Executioner]

Bergen will be placed on a major trading route

I forget which time period is being discussed but Bergen is/was on a major trading route.
By 1360 it had a Hanseatic Kontor.
Link

 

[Jürgen]

I forget which time period is being discussed but Bergen is/was on a major trading route.
By 1360 it had a Hanseatic Kontor.
Link

Yes, which was why it was the biggest city in Norway when in union with Denmark (twice the size of Oslo/Christiania the administrative center of Norway). But here it won’t just be on the route to Lapland and White Sea and the North Atlantic, here it will be on the route to even greater wealth. There’s around as much way from Vinland both to Bergen and Dublin, but Bergen are closer to main markets of Europe in travel time than Dublin.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Again I have to admit quite few of these would be in easy reach of Newfoundland, and finding new ones farther south does Vinlanders little good in Newfoundland. They'd have to move southward, and the main way to get that fast would be to leapfrog down the coast, to southern New England or New York, Long Island say. Or press on to Chesapeake Bay. If they are comfortable enough in Newfoundland it might be a long time before they try any of these colonization moves.

Their more likely direction of expansion is of course up the St Lawrence.

Finding new crops farther south does Vinlanders a lot of good in Newfoundland.
Neither the hunter-gatherers of Newfoundland and Labrador nor the maize growers of New England or Chesapeake Bay know how to smelt iron.

The Norse have iron tools to sell. While the Beothuk are conveniently at hand and have pelts etc. for sale, the Algonquin maize growers are far more populous.

What would the Vinlanders of Newfoundland prefer to do? Settle in Chesapeake, fight the numerous Skraelings for a piece of fertile land (it is already taken for maize!) and try learning how to grow an unknown crop in unknown climate, and find iron ores there? Or smelt more iron at Newfoundland (which they have already prospected, and sold as much as Beothuk needed), sail to Chesapeake... and NOT stay, but return home to Newfoundland with ships laden with maize each year?

The alternatives of trade without permanent settlements and trade from permanent colonies are obvious. Where would Vinlanders make the move to winter over?

 

[EmperorOfTheNorthSea]

Sweden was not all that populous before 1645. It is not obvious from present map, but Skane, Halland and Blekinge were Denmark for a very long time, and Bohuslän, Jämtland and Härjedalen were Norway.
On the other hand, in 10th...11th century, it was not granted that a kingdom ruling Fiord Norway would also rule Oslo - Denmark often reached to Oslo.

True Sweden would not be an Equal player to Denmark for some time but thet would be far quicker than Norway ever would or could be before the Industrial Revolution.

With Vinland in the fray, Norway would be smaller and poorer than OTL, slightly, because Norway would not be able to annex Iceland. And some of the trade of Iceland, OTL monopolized by Norway, would go to triangular trade Vinland-Britain-Iceland.

Only leading moreso to a Danish dominated Norway. And while the westerlies could facilitate direct Newfoundland-Britain voyages I'm skeptical it can be done with Cogs let alone Knarrs. True I suppose that a greater need could facilitate ship technological development.

a la Brazil and Portugal?

Sorta.

As I said, the first Norse who settle ahead of others who stay in Northern Newfoundland need motivations other than barley.

My guess is - trade.
Where would they settle and what would they do there?

Or violence.

These Norseman were given to feuds, and the losers in one or more of these might find it necessary to move.

Well the Norse were well aware the farther south you go the more prosperous and warm it is. Coupled with perhaps situations where second and third sons would like to go off and establish their own estates rather than split it up among their brothers. Along with a continuous stream of immigration from Iceland (infanticide was common before the Christianization so once Vinland was established enough and had enough trade that they didn't think it was just another artic rock like greenland I don't see it being too hard).

Demography means less in the medieval and early modern. period

I'd argue the opposite. The only times this has been overcame was if:
#1. If larger power was so corrupt and inefficient that it couldn't properly bring it's full power to bear.
#2. If a smaller power is unusually adept at warfare or a specific kind of warfare that gives them an advantage in mobility or sometimes technology.
#3. If a smaller power had enough money thanks to trade routes to hire foreign mercenaries but even then its unreliable and requires a power to be vastly more wealthy than its opponent.
#4. All or some of the above.

The Norwegians had no such advantages against the Danes. Even in such a scenario that they get increased trade it wouldn't match Denmark's strait toll and their greater population and tax base.

Mecklenburg was one of the major actor in the period even with their smaller population, thanks to position on the trading route.

Through political factors and foreign Mercenaries. Were it not for the stabilizing force of the feudal HRE I doubt they would have been Independent long.

Bergen will be placed on a major trading route, even if it hinterland can’t feed it, Baltic cereal can feed it.

1. Holy hell the population of one city, even a big city won't overturn a nation's demographics! Especially in the medieval period were cities tended not to go above 300,000.
2. Where is that baltic grain going to pass through? The Danish straits, that same power their going to be contending with in a war can suddenly cut off a cities food supply. If anything you made it easier for Denmark to impose its will on Norway.
3. I do doubt trans-atlantic trade would be THAT profitable to radically change a cities population in any meaningful numbers.

What would the Vinlanders of Newfoundland prefer to do? Settle in Chesapeake, fight the numerous Skraelings for a piece of fertile land (it is already taken for maize!) and try learning how to grow an unknown crop in unknown climate, and find iron ores there?

Um by the time Norse are able to expand to the Chesapeake I'd assume more than a few diseases wpuld have crossed over giving them at least enough room to get a foot in the door.

 

[filrabat]

The Icelandic and Greenland Norse would have to maintain contact with their lands and the Irish and other British settlements in order to blunt the spread of smallpox and such. Lost contact with their motherland was the reason the Greenland Norse died out, not the least because (a) the Viking maritime technology, for all its wonders, still wasn't a 15th century Spanish Galleon, and (b) no trees in Greenland meant no ships for them to build.

So if the European Norse made more effort to settle in North America, then the Norse settlers would quickly learn that lands to the south were warmer, and so would likely be tempted to work their way down the coast -- at least to Florida and maybe even all the way to temperate South America for all we know (the Vikings were always looking for new trading and raiding opportunities, so a settlement at the present site of Buenos Aires in this scenario, while still wild, isn't as ASB as it may seem at first glance). Almost certainly they'd get as far south as Virginia.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Only leading moreso to a Danish dominated Norway.

In OTL, the formation and breakup of Kalmar Union resulted in Sweden breaking off from Denmark and Norway adhering, by 1523. In TTL, with Vinland an interested player, OTL outcome cannot be taken for granted.

And while the westerlies could facilitate direct Newfoundland-Britain voyages I'm skeptical it can be done with Cogs let alone Knarrs. True I suppose that a greater need could facilitate ship technological development.

It could be done with a leather boat. When Bjarni Herjolfsson´s ship was eaten by worms, part of his crew escaped in a leather boat and safely reached Ireland.
So the Norse knew the way. But of course not with a profitable payload.
Once the Norse are settled in Newfoundland, they know the alternatives. Use a knarr to islandhop east through Greenland and Iceland, taking on provisions for each leg, and paying for the food. Or shortcut straight to Ireland, saving total time and provisions spent, but needing more provisions for the single long leg.

And yest, they would develop ships bigger than knarrs. But not cogs - those were designed for different tasks.

Well the Norse were well aware the farther south you go the more prosperous and warm it is.

Warmer also means more unaccustomed for them to live and farm. More prosperous means more Skraelings to fight them back, and higher price to buy the land.
Better to trade rather than settle.

Um by the time Norse are able to expand to the Chesapeake I'd assume more than a few diseases wpuld have crossed over giving them at least enough room to get a foot in the door.

Diseases also diminish trade profits.

On the Atlantic side, they can trade at every bay and up every river. No single place would be a concentration of large amount of trade. Again favouring for the Norse to sail, trade and sail back home.

On Saint Lawrence, knarrs can sail to Montreal... and beyond Lachine Rapids there are the whole Great Lakes and Mississippi Culture.
So, Montreal would be a logical site for a trade settlement, more than anywhere on Atlantic.

 

[basileus]

In this scenario, they would die en masse too. Icelandic Norse were naive to smallpox when it came to Iceland in the 1200's, which means the Greenland and Vinland Norse would be as well. This means that a scenario where a disease exchange occurs actually sabotages rather than promotes European colonialism.

I don't think that the Vinlandic 'frontier' would be particularly stable or controllable. The Vinland elite would probably want settlers to stay in Vinland, serving the nobility and the Church; settlements would probably end up being de facto breakaway states as people seek to leave the control of the Vinlandic elite.

A "Cossack" model, so, where "Viking" would be the term for those breaking out in search of freedom and opportunity for a quickly stratifying caste society based on race and birth, and in time on money.