Stupid Luck and Happenstance, Thread II

The US didn't get the boost in the late 1930's and early 1940's from European Arms Orders, but it *does* have a decent population in its favour, though roughly comparable to ITTL Germany?

One thing that the US should still be ahead on is mechanized farming, and advances thereof.
 
I think that Harriman is caught in a trap, if he abandons China at the earliest opportunity then other nations might not want to deal with the United States because they will been seen as being feckless, on the other hand sticking with China and Chiang Kai-shek too long will only lead to further isolation on the international scene and domestic unrest in the United States.
Not only that, but China is probably one of very few states that looks upon the US favourably - given the US' willingness to sell war materials to both the Soviets and Japanese during WW2, and later the support provided to the Turks, most of the world will regard the US as nothing more than war profiteers willing to see the rest of the world drown in blood as long as they can line their pockets.

Add in details like the continued horrible treatments of African-Americans in much of the country, the 'Kraut Scare', the well-publicised arrest and torture of Asia, and actions of powerful Americans in events like the Spanish Civil War and the Augusta Conspiracy, and it would not surprise me if most of the rest of the world is fed up with America's hypocritical bullshit.

Harriman's speech will seem to many as further confirmation of this view - he says the US stands for self-determination despite the discriminatory voting practices in southern states, and accuses Germany and its allies of setting up client states despite the US' history with banana republics and this being exactly what the Chinese want to do to Korea.
 
Come on American "Pearl Harbour" attack on Hamburg!

Hamburg would be far to far away and well protected, but I could see someone suggesting taking the German Pacific territories under the protection of the United States, this idea might be born fro a miscalculation that Germany cares for the islands as much as your average colonial power cares about some minor territory full of people with a different skin shade. Of course at this point the territories are far more integrated than that and even the worst racists back home in continental Germany will see it as an issue of principle to not let something like that go unpunished.

Generally though I expect that everyone in the Americas and Europe will want any conflict to stay in the region it currently is in and not escalate by attacking each other directly, there just might be some difference on what people consider directly.
 
"Let us reunite the Chamorro people of Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands under one flag, the Flag of the United States of America" the famous last words of President Harriman before being led out of the White House.
 
"Let us reunite the Chamorro people of Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands under one flag, the Flag of the United States of America" the famous last words of President Harriman before being led out of the White House.


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FBKampfer

Banned
Erm, it was the brits who invented composite armour iotl plus as seen earlier in the thread the Americans were woefully falling back in terms of tech

No they didn't. The brits invented Chobham armor.

As far as can be documented, the US, Brits, and Russia all independently came up with the concept, but we beat everyone to the punch by about 12-15 years.

This assumes that German military tech has remained static, which I doubt. The European countries, including France, have cooperated in the past on developing tech, with the Mexico campaign proving that they have, at a minimum, standardised ammunition types. German helicopter tactics are on track, as shown by Sigi's training exploits, as is their combined arms doctrine. Combat experience would have led to improved armour designs.
Then there is Russia, they have historic... issues, shall we say, with both Germany and China which we know has spurred their own military tech. The fact that Germany, despite the carnage of WW2 ITTL, is seen somewhat as a saviour, liberating them from Stalin, helps reduce tensions between the two to a vigorous rivalry. A strong China on a long shared border is not a pleasant scenario to Russian minds. This would tend to sway them to supporting Korea over China. And there is that railway line across Siberia.
Harriman's announcement would also sway Britain & possibly Portugal in favour of intervention to protect Hong Kong & Macau regardless of their League of Nations obligation to come to the defence of another member. And British artillery doctrine has been superb since WW1.

IIRC, PM has stayed the Lynx is using a schmalturm design, which even at high nominal thicknesses provides poor protection on impact. It was designed to protect via its small profile and simply not being hit.

Since they haven't faced a peer adversary in decades, that's the kind of lesson they wouldn't have learned.


Assuming they want to get involved in what's shaping up to be WWIII, sure, the Ruskies are probably on Germany's side.

But other than Germany, it's really only possibly Britain and maybe. MAYBE, France with political reasons, and Japan because it's her own back yard.

Britain may be good with artillery as well, but mostly she just lacks artillery tubes. The US would not.

Japan is still just too unindistralized to provide much beyond infantry units.


There's hardly any grand coalition that's going to swoop into Korea with a cavalry bugle and charge over the hill.
 
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IIRC, PM has stayed the Lynx is using a schmalturm design, which even at high nominal thicknesses provides poor protection on impact. It was designed to protect via its small profile and simply not being hit.

Since they haven't faced a peer adversary in decades, that's the kind of lesson they wouldn't have learned.


Assuming they want to get involved in what's shaping up to be WWIII, sure, the Ruskies are probably on Germany's side.

But other than Germany, it's really only possibly Britain and maybe. MAYBE, France with political reasons, and Japan because it's her own back yard.

Britain may be good with artillery as well, but mostly she just lacks artillery tubes. The US would not.

Japan is still just too unindistralized to provide much beyond infantry units.


There's hardly any grand coalition that's going to swoop into Korea with a cavalry bugle and charge over the hill.

Let go over these one by one:

Lnyx vs US armor: US armor is more than likely one to two generations behind the rest of the world, if not actually still on WW2 or Mexican intervention ideas.

The Russians are definately on the German and Korean side, they most certainly do not want a resurgent China across the Amur river from them if not actually wanting a independent Manchuria in the Russian sphere of influence.

Britain and France are not going to be left out with Canada in play and France having a way to get back into Asia after having lost SE Asian colonies.

Lacks tubes? This is this time lines UK not OTL UK, THey still have an East of Suez mission.

Japan unindustrialized? No just not able to make next gen weapons, could make current gen easily, just have to have the plans to do it. You did not have the whole sale destruction of Japan like they did in OTL WW2.

Remember this is Chiang's type of army from pre WW2. All the corruption and keeping good troops out of the hands of possible rivals here. All that surplus US equipment that they sold them also.
 

FBKampfer

Banned
Let go over these one by one:

Lnyx vs US armor: US armor is more than likely one to two generations behind the rest of the world, if not actually still on WW2 or Mexican intervention ideas.
US has been stated to have an M26 analogue about 10 years ago, IIRC. They have been stated to have developed the M3 90mm gun, so full M26 as of the early 50's (about on schedule). After Greece, they have seen how powerful the 88, which as we've last heard for sure, still is the Lynx's main gun. Additionally, even if they can't get a full gun, ammunition for the 88 and 128mm guns should be easy to obtain, giving you case capacity, rough chamber pressure, with known barrel length, which gives you a rough muzzle velocity and ergo penetration capacity when combined with the projectile mass, metallurgy, and design.

The US, if it's even 1/4 as competent OTL, should have a good idea of what German guns can do.

Second they have ALWAYS had excellent gun depression and strong turret faces. Which is exactly the type of fighting Korea will be.


Third they developed their own composite armor in house 10 years before anyone else.


We have zero indication that US tanks would be crap from a technical standpoint.


The Russians are definately on the German and Korean side, they most certainly do not want a resurgent China across the Amur river from them if not actually wanting a independent Manchuria in the Russian sphere of influence.

Britain and France are not going to be left out with Canada in play and France having a way to get back into Asia after having lost SE Asian colonies.

Lacks tubes? This is this time lines UK not OTL UK, THey still have an East of Suez mission.

UK if she wants to jump into the frey, but it sounds like she's just going to be an opportunist in this round (hence Jack and MI6). France may very well do the same thing. It's doubtful Germany would let her take colonies.

And the UK was short on tubes (especially modern ones) from the very beginning of the 20th century. Hell, before that. She entered the Boer War short of tubes (especially modern ones), ditto for WWI, same story for WWII.

Japan unindustrialized? No just not able to make next gen weapons, could make current gen easily, just have to have the plans to do it. You did not have the whole sale destruction of Japan like they did in OTL WW2.

And even before WWII Japan was unindistralized.

They lacked capacity for steel production, they lacked any strong automotive industry, about the only thing they did have enough of was ship yards (except against the USA who cranked out over 150 flat tops) and aircraft manufacturers, but still couldn't get enough engines for all the planes.

Remember this is Chiang's type of army from pre WW2. All the corruption and keeping good troops out of the hands of possible rivals here. All that surplus US equipment that they sold them also.

Literally all they need to do is be a human wall.
 
... this will be TTL's Vietnam for the US, won't it?
More like a really weird Korean War from OTL's perspective, but with the US providing material support to the Chinese instead of the Soviets, while Germany and Japan fight alongside the Koreans.

Remember this is Chiang's type of army from pre WW2. All the corruption and keeping good troops out of the hands of possible rivals here. All that surplus US equipment that they sold them also.
Literally all they need to do is be a human wall.
Soviet War 2 - Chinese Boogaloo!

Human wave tactics with inferior equipment, German veterans from the war with the soviets are going to be getting an unwanted trip down memory lane!
 
For US military capabilities, I'd say the issue would be one of doctrine and leadership, as opposed to materiel and technology.
The US military is notoriously conservative and always slow to learn from the experiences of somebody else.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Just how will the USA get any equipment to China? The German Navy would be enough to stop any serious help even without the IJN and the RN.

No neutrals will let any weapons pass their territory so how do you get something like a couple hundred tanks into China?
 
A good possibility is that China is stopped cold with massive amount of casualties on the the Chinese side will will lead to a coup attempt against Chiang Kai-shek.
This will lead to the fracturing of China in to various warlords armies and the United States is favoring one side and that draws the United States in to an untenable situation in which the American military is drawn in to a quagmire.
 
But other than Germany, it's really only possibly Britain and maybe. MAYBE, France with political reasons, and Japan because it's her own back yard.

Britain may be good with artillery as well, but mostly she just lacks artillery tubes. The US would not.

Japan is still just too unindistralized to provide much beyond infantry units
Again why this seems to have all the hallmarks of a FAR more bloodier version of Vietnam.

You also forgot about the inherent and historical fear of the Indochina region countries..... Expect to see VERY sizeable Infantry Corps from Vietnam and the other countries of the region, who would see the Chinese aggression against Korea as a VERY real symbol of the Chinese returning to their ancient imperialist ambitions , AGAIN.

If the Vietnamese forces include a certain VERY creative General of name Giap, you can imagine that things will get amusing, in a macabre way....

Still, the initial phase of this Korean War will be bloody in extreme, as the Koreans, and the Germans have to slowly exchange territory, but causing near catastrophic casualties in the process to the Chinese Republican Army, likely switching to mass use of Napalm and other AOE weapons to further blunt the tidal wave, while the Panzers also take the Reaper's toll......

However, the initial part of the Korean War will be a race against time of who wins in a strategic level.

Either the Germans and Koreans manage to not be routed, and holding the line, as they exchange each meter of Korean land for demential numbers of Chinese casualties........ Or the Chinese, with plenty of men and armed by the Americans, manage to overwhelm the Korean defensive lines before the German and other nations's reinforcements manage to arrive and go finally to the counter offensive....
 

Grimbald

Monthly Donor
When fighting a "real" war US strategy has always been:

Lose the first half badly.
Lose the next quarter close.
Win the fourth quarter and the war.
Lose the peace.

I see no reason why this would be different.
 
Another factor that will play a role, it will be the one of technology.

This will be the first War where Missile combat and Electronic Warfare will play a role... And it will be a very nasty surprise for the Chinese and what American pilots are flying as "mercenaries" in the Chinese Forces.....

The other factor that will play a role will be the support of Satellite imagery, from the Vietnamese Space Complex... That if the Germans didn't finally unleashed something like the OTL Keyhole communication interception sats...... That will certainly multiply the Chinese casualties, as they wouldn't take a step without the Germans learning of it a few hours later....

It wouldn't be rare that in the last days, the Vietnamese Complex must have been in a slight high of activity, launching multiple satellites into geostationary orbit over Korea........
 
I was thinking about this last night, and honestly, it felt inevitable.

Take preWW1 Germany's foreign situation, IE, few if any real allies, give them heaping domestic problems, a sense of inferiority they're trying to desperately cover up, and then their one ally, the one person who they know isn't mocking them to their face and calling them backwards, asks for their assistance.

Of course they'll side with them, they can't afford not to. Countries without allies wither and die on the vine. This is inevitable, Germany more or less helped push them into this corner, and hasn't exactly given them ways out. When you push and push and push a country, constantly humiliate it, officially or otherwise (a certain SigInt admiral's actions really wouldn't have helped matters at all), you don't get to be shocked when they start getting keen for payback, or at least a chance to prove they're not weak.
 
Out of curiosity, was the Kuomingtang able to recover Sinkiang and Mongolia after the Soviet Union fell? The Soviets maintained both regions as client states during the interwar period but it seems logical that Chiang would be able to recover both regions in the absence of soviet and chicom interference. Maybe even Tannu Tuva was recovered?
 
One of the things that really bothers me about this story's latest development is the non-issue of Korean/Japanese relations. I understand that when your country is being invaded you will accept help from just about anyone; but I really can't believe the Koreans will accept Japanese troops on their territory without some hefty restrictions. Thirty-five years of brutal occupation is not easily forgotten nor forgiven.
 
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