1920s Sea Change

Any chance any major navy decides carriers are the future, and drops battleship & battlecruiser construction? Building a forward looking carrier force instead?

Does naval airpower (land based as well as carrier) make any sense for second tier navies like France, Italy, USSR, or Germany? This in terms of aircraft technology 1925-1935.

Of the three which did build operating carriers which is the most likely to go that direction? Since the US was only building carriers 1920-1938 it might be the most likely?
Remember the Washington Naval Treaty.

Japan and the USA built aircraft carriers up to its limits IOTL.

The other first tier navy (and the one with the most experience of naval aviation before 1920) was the Royal Navy. It wanted to build its aircraft carrier force up to the Treaty's limits and in spite of its the financial state at the time the UK could have afforded to do so. However, the Government would not provide the money. This wasn't because of the RAF and the Treasury. It was because of public opinion.

After World War One a lot of people thought there must be a better way than "arming for peace" (deliberate Billy Bragg reference). There's a quote about the 1930s Geneva Disarmament Conference in Volume One of Grand Strategy saying that the only criticism made against the British was that if anything they had disarmed too much. There's another quote in it which says that when the RAF's Expansion Scheme A was announced in the House of Commons in 1934 the opposition spokesman said, "We see no reason for an increase in air armaments," or words to that effect. There was a documentary on Lloyd George on the TV a few years ago which included some 1930s newsreel footage of him at a public meeting where he was criticising the Government for spending £300 million paying for the last war and £100 million preparing for the next one.

Or to summarise all forms of military spending were a considerable vote looser between 1919 and the middle of the 1930s. I'm not an expert but there was considerable opposition to rearmament when it finally happened.

As already noted the Royal Navy was the pre-eminent navy in all forms of naval aviation at the time of the POD. Had the British electorate been less averse to spending on the armed forces between the wars more aircraft carriers would have been built for the Royal Navy between 1924 and 1934, with a corresponding increase in the size of the Fleet Air Arm of the Royal Air Force. The RAF would also have had more flying boats and torpedo bombers based ashore.

However, there is absolutely no chance that the admirals will decide that, aircraft carriers are the future and stop building capital ships, in the 1920s. Nelson and Rodney will still be built in the 1920s. They won't build any capital ships in the first half of the 1930s, but that is because there will still be a First London Naval Treaty to extend the battleship building holiday to the end of 1936. Furthermore, they might refit the existing capital ships more thoroughly than they did IOTL.

On the other hand if the Royal Navy had been given the money to carry out the 1924 Plan the extra experience accumulated by 1935 might have altered British naval thinking sufficiently for the admirals to conclude that the big gun capital ship would become obsolete within the next five years. However, they would still want new battleships as well as more aircraft carriers in case they were wrong. IIRC from Roskill's British Naval Policy Between the Wars this is what the admirals thought IOTL in the second half of the 1930s.
 
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No way anyone goes all in on aircraft in the 20s. Tech is not ready yet.
That being said Germany should have (looking back on it) as the money spent on the nave (other then Subs) was a total waste.
Of course 1920s aircraft would be a waste also but at least they would be improving and learning about aircraft vs finding ways to build new fish homes.
 
The WNT allowed France and Italy to have 60,000 tons of aircraft carriers. Therefore, the options are:
5 ships of 12,000 tons,
4 ships of 15,000 tons,
3 ships of 20,000 tons,
2 ships of 27,000 tons, as 27,000 tons is the maximum displacement permitted by the Treaty.
I doubt that the 27,000 ton option would have been given serious consideration, in part because it wastes 6,000 tons.
Article IX


No aircraft-carrier exceeding 27,000 tons (27,432 metric tons) standard displacement shall be acquired by, or constructed by, for, or within the jurisdiction of, any of the Contracting Powers.

However, any of the Contracting Powers may, provided that its total tonnage allowance of aircraft-carriers is not thereby exceeded, build not more than two aircraft-carriers, each of a tonnage of not more than 33,000 tons (33,528 metric tons) standard displacement, and in order to effect economy any of the Contracting Powers may use for this purpose any two of their ships, whether constructed or in course of construction, which would otherwise be scrapped under the provisions of Article II. The armament of any aircraft-carriers exceeding 27,000 tons (27,432 metric tons) standard displacement shall be in accordance with the requirements of Article X, except that the total number of guns to be carried, in case any of such guns be of a calibre exceeding 6 inches (152 millimetres), except anti-aircraft guns and guns not exceeding 5 inches (127 millimetres), shall not exceed eight.
They can just build 2 x30,000t they don't have to be conversions......

The other choice is what if they or Germany builds super cruisers and calls them CVs?
Something like 20,000t IJN Tone but with 10x8" and a short flying off platform/catapult to the rear?
 
They can just build 2 x30,000t they don't have to be conversions......
I thought that Article IX only applied to the British Empire, Japan and the United States. Fair enough though.

However, I doubt that they would build two 30,000 ton ships.
 

McPherson

Banned
Not insanity at all , they were not just sending carriers, they would have most of the Grand Fleet as a supporting gunline ! German light forces would have just been swamped. The entire idea was, in the Germans got wind, to draw the Germans into an impossible choice, get torpedoed in port or get sunk at sea. The RN did know a little bit about sailing, those shoals were not seen as much of a problem , battle of Heligoland Blight showed that.

It was an insanely stupid idea at the time. Read me out. Aircraft carrier unit tactics in battle are not surface gun ship unit tactics. In gun tactics the maneuvers at play are ship change of speed and turn agility to avoid enemy gun and torpedo angle track solutions as well as relatively quick artillery effects. Aircraft carriers have to run into the wind to launch. This takes time... a lot of time on a predictable guns/torpedoes easy solution vector.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre.../orthographic=7.65,12.29,396/loc=3.289,55.604

Interactive map. Go to roughly 54.75° N, 5.88° See your wind? Generally this wind blows in the North Sea in a WEIRD circular pattern. When you get close into the Bight it can be from the EAST. An aircraft carrier, especially a WW I aircraft carrier, takes up to 30 minutes to launch off 30 antique biplanes. That is 30 minutes running at flank (about 20-25 knots) STRAIGHT AT THE GERMANS on a relatively straight course. If their torpedo boats and light cruisers don't get you, the Zepps and the Gothas will or you will not launch aircraft. If you don't understand it...

HMS Glorious. When you don't know what you are doing.

SAMAR When you do know what you doing.

In both events, it did not matter actually whether you were American or British, the aircraft carriers were in severe trouble from inferior fleets and would have been quickly destroyed in a surface gun action because when surface units are in range, unless the enemy loses his nerve or does something as stupid as you did to get into that kind of trouble he has the advantage of ordnance time on target service and the advantage of maneuver. He can shoot at you while you try to launch aircraft and are running for your lives. Clifton Sprague was a TIGER. He knew exactly what he was doing and still was 10 minutes away from total annihilation. "At best, I thought we would be swimming."

Also if you try to put the Grand Fleet into the Bight and handcuff yourself to aircraft carrier bodyguard duty, then you are Admiral Beatty... i.e. incompetent. I naturally have to assume that the RN Admiralty of the time had not thought it through, or that they had not wargamed it or did not understand aircraft carrier characteristics of ship/plane/weather effects operation at all. NOBODY with aircraft carrier operating experience could be that stupid ... unless you were the WW II Captain of the HMS Glorious or William Halsey or Marc Mitscher or Miles Browning.
 
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marathag

Banned
That being said Germany should have (looking back on it) as the money spent on the nave (other then Subs) was a total waste.
Tirpitz was the absolute best money any Navy ever spent, totally proved the 'Fleet in Being' concept.

Runners up were the Picket Battleships, forced other Navies to make far more expensive BCs to deal with them
 
It was an insanely stupid idea at the time.
Bit confused by your reply, I know you know about covering forces etc but so you getting the formation they would use completely wrong by claiming the heavies are a close escort seems strange. When they did try a carrier raid in WW1, the formation was pretty much the same in all cases , carrier deploying with a light force screen with heavies as a covering force to fall back on if needed. You also seem confused about the number of aircraft carried and speeds, no ship in WW1 was going to carry 30 aircraft, Furious used 7, Argus maybe a dozen with the rest inbetween. Apart from Furious none of the ships in practice are hitting even 20kts but given the takeoff speeds they really just need to turn into the wind and make steerage.

The idea was to launch without the Germans finding them , given the lack of radar pretty easy to do, they did not envisage launching if contacted by forces the screen could not keep away. If they were they would just fallback, hopefully drawing the Germans out.
 

McPherson

Banned
Tirpitz was the absolute best money any Navy ever spent, totally proved the 'Fleet in Being' concept.

Runners up were the Picket Battleships, forced other Navies to make far more expensive BCs to deal with them

(^^^) Proved that one must analyze the problem and then apply the correct solution sooner. LANCASTER + anti-ship weapon (Tall Boy for example) + trained crews + Barnes Wallace = RIKKO and no Tirpitz or any other capital ship problem for the UK. Long time to figure it out, but what the hey?
 
Runners up were the Picket Battleships, forced other Navies to make far more expensive BCs to deal with them
All the gun BC's that were built, were built before the pocket Battleships with the exception of the Alaska's and they were built in response to Japanese ships ( that did not actually exist ) not German.
 

marathag

Banned
All the gun BC's that were built, were built before the pocket Battleships with the exception of the Alaska's and they were built in response to Japanese ships ( that did not actually exist ) not German.

Without the PBs, France would not have built any. RN only had two left, Renown and Repulse-- all others not sunk in WWI, had been scrapped-- but more importantly, when the PBs were built, UK wasn't the target, let alone the neutral Americans on the other side of the Ocean, but local powers

Also got the Moose to go for better armored heavy Cruisers, and upped the speed of the Cavour BB in reconstruction
 

McPherson

Banned
Bit confused by your reply, I know you know about covering forces etc but so you getting the formation they would use completely wrong by claiming the heavies are a close escort seems strange. When they did try a carrier raid in WW1, the formation was pretty much the same in all cases , carrier deploying with a light force screen with heavies as a covering force to fall back on if needed. You also seem confused about the number of aircraft carried and speeds, no ship in WW1 was going to carry 30 aircraft, Furious used 7, Argus maybe a dozen with the rest inbetween. Apart from Furious none of the ships in practice are hitting even 20kts but given the takeoff speeds they really just need to turn into the wind and make steerage.

The idea was to launch without the Germans finding them , given the lack of radar pretty easy to do, they did not envisage launching if contacted by forces the screen could not keep away. If they were they would just fallback, hopefully drawing the Germans out.

The correct way to do it was this:

2016-07-10+15_34_58-Jamie%27s+Kindle+for+PC+2+-+Stringbags+in+Action.jpg


Notice the distance offsets and coverages?

Illustrious actually did a speed run in and out with no close cover at all. Note her vector as she rushes into the wind? Her speed run ends in a turn which was about 150 nm off Taranto which was danger close to the coast, but acceptable because it was a night run, during which the Italians had no air reconnaissance up, nor were their light forces patrolling out far enough.

There is a modern Pakistani example of what happens to you if you are navally incompetent, overconfident and don't know what you are doing, or don't pay attention to enemy platform characteristics and capabilities in an operational art sense. (Pearl Harbor syndrome.). It is called Operation Trident. Short version: in 1971 the Indian navy sneaked in under cover of night and during an air raid by the Indian air force, used extremely unlikely OSA missile boats which they towed into range behind frigates. The Pakistanis had radar and they could do night recon, but they were arrogant. Made the mistake of underestimating their foes. (Sounds like some Americans on 7 December 1941 to me?)

The Indians used short ranged STYX missiles, shotgunned the salvo into the port and blew Karachi to hello and gone.

You can do that to a navy that does not expect that kind of surprise. BUT... after the 2nd Battle of Helgoland Bight which the RN screwed up, the Germans were aware of their danger and stood standing patrols. you are not going to surprise them at all. Especially if you have to come within 2 hours flank speed run to launch Sopwith Cuckoos. At least with the Swordfish, it is five hours high speed by Italian MAS boats and 1 hour by Regia Aeronautica aircraft which has no night fighting capability in the air. That risk is worth the gamble by a navy that has practiced night torpedo attack using parachute flare illumination to light up the target set. BTW, Sempill passed that bit along to the IJN. Hurt the USN at Guadalcanal.
 
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McPherson

Banned
Except that happened after the Pakistanis did their initial sneak aerial attack on India

How does that affect the arrogance of under-estimating your foe? Not assigning moral value whether the Indian surprise attack was morally justified; just pointing out that you should estimate what your enemy can do accurately, and then prepare for it. If you don't, then expect to be hammered.
 

marathag

Banned
How does that affect the arrogance of under-estimating your foe? Not assigning moral value whether the Indian surprise attack was morally justified; just pointing out that you should estimate what your enemy can do accurately, and then prepare for it. If you don't, then expect to be hammered.

It's one thing to expect attacks after a war has started, quite another to be attacked at peacetime.
 

McPherson

Banned
Bit confused by your reply, I know you know about covering forces etc but so you getting the formation they would use completely wrong by claiming the heavies are a close escort seems strange. When they did try a carrier raid in WW1, the formation was pretty much the same in all cases , carrier deploying with a light force screen with heavies as a covering force to fall back on if needed. You also seem confused about the number of aircraft carried and speeds, no ship in WW1 was going to carry 30 aircraft, Furious used 7, Argus maybe a dozen with the rest inbetween. Apart from Furious none of the ships in practice are hitting even 20kts but given the takeoff speeds they really just need to turn into the wind and make steerage.

Got to address the technicals.

1. The covering force has to be close. The Germans are minutes off. The aircraft carriers will be running for their lives. Give the Germans any free time to shoot and you lose your flattops. This means gun range coverage. Tyborn was beyond HSF patrol coverage as it was halfway up the Jutland coast. Beatty and Suetter propose the anchorages at Wilhelmshaven as deep as Bremen. That is the base of the Jutland penisula, right into the teeth of the HSF defense. I.N.S.A.N.E.

2.

THAT is what the RN FAA experiences is in 1919, what the USN tries in 1922.

3. Discussion here is good. Consensus is that the idea is crackpot. Note that the Suetter scheme involved merchant ships (15 knots) to carry 14-17 torpedo bombers and a couple of fighters. No traps, just ditch at sea and recover air crew. That makes it far worse. That is not gross incompetence. That is criminal malfeasance of duty.
 

McPherson

Banned
It's one thing to expect attacks after a war has started, quite another to be attacked at peacetime.

Arguing a point of morality is for the civilians. As a professional military man, the "morality" is not to be surprise attacked before, during or when you are at war. Never mind that your government has pursued policies that got you into the war. Get Pearl Harbored and the least that should happen is you are relieved.

Was the Indian air defense commander sacked?
 
The plotted satellite weather recon of current winds.

Does not show any circular winds. :confounded: Are you imagining the wind swirling around the North Sea basin, confined by topography? That doesn't happen.

Are you unfamiliar with temperate latitudes? You can get "circular winds" as a cyclonic depression passes through. That's reasonably common, but certainly not the norm - typically they pass north of Scotland and the North Sea, along with the rest of the British Isles, experiences prevailing (south)westerly winds - as the weather chart are actually showing right now...

Meaning that your idea that they'd have to spend 30 minutes steaming east towards danger is entirely the wrong way round.
 
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