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With Frank McKenna having been elected the new Liberal leader, he would now find himself faced with the tough responsibility of both rebuilding the Liberals’ somewhat-tarnished image and providing an effective opposition to Canada’s first Conservative government in over a decade. Fortunately for him, on both counts the Liberals seemed to have the wind in their sails, the most obvious reason being McKenna himself. Experience at leading an opposition? Check. Known quantity? Check. Federal outsider? Check. Everyone knew who McKenna was, or if nothing else knew him by reputation (ten years as a Premier will do that to someone) and generally speaking, despite a few vocal Tories in his home province saying otherwise, his record was pretty good. Beyond that, though, one of his big advantages as he found himself at the helm of the Liberal ship was his prior distance from the federal party. He hadn’t gotten tied down with the baggage of the Chrétien/Martin governments, had no association with the sponsorship scandal (the few remaining Liberals in Quebec loudly breathing a sigh of relief), and hadn’t been involved in the Chrétien/Martin infighting; sure, he was probably a Martin man – he was a Blue Liberal, after all – but he could rightly claim to have been above all the madness that preceded him in the federal party. While the party wouldn’t heal itself overnight, things certainly looked promising.

With general good feelings seemingly surrounding McKenna, he next set about getting into the House of Commons – sure, he could oppose them from outside the House, but that could only last so long. With former cabinet minister Andy Scott stepping aside in his riding, McKenna would win the subsequent Fredericton by-election somewhat handily and find himself face to face with Stephen Harper in the House of Commons.

While McKenna seemed to have the wind in his sails (indeed, polls showed McKenna putting the Liberals ahead of the Conservatives, albeit narrowly), things weren’t all bad for Harper. Sure, he’d had some hiccups during his first year in office – Environment Minister Rona Ambrose had proven to be a bit of a headache for the government, prompting her demotion in January 2007, his appointments of David Emerson and Michel Gauthier had immediately added a bit of a sour note to his government, and he’d divided his party a bit over his decision to recognize Quebec as a nation – but he’d had his fair share of successes as well. His recognition of Quebec as a distinct nation had divided his cabinet a bit, sure, but, hey, if anything it divided the Liberals’ more and, either way, had caused Conservative numbers in Quebec to go up, while his first budget had been relatively well-received and made it through the House of Commons with fewer than expected amendments forced upon it by the opposition. If anything would be to blame for the Harper government’s occasional problems it was rookie mistakes (not being in government for 13 years will do that) and, to their credit, they were doing everything they could try and avoid this.

Of course the reality is that Harper was always going to find himself faced with problems during the 29th Parliament, because though Canada had elected a Conservative government they had also elected a very centre-left Parliament. Sure, the Conservatives could find occasional allies in the Bloc Québécois, if only because they both generally supported devolution and had a shared hatred of the Liberals (though this partnership was quickly wearing thin as Conservatives ate into Bloc support in Quebec), and they were remarkably successful at using the threat of an election to force the Liberals or the NDP to abstain from matters of confidence and ensure the government’s survival, but it was always going to be a bit of a headache and things were only going to get worse for them now that the Liberals had a permanent leader and saw returning to government as a very realistic possibility.

All that being said it shouldn’t really be surprising that the Harper government fell following the introduction of its 2007 budget in the spring. The budget itself didn’t even matter – it wasn’t particularly popular or unpopular with the average public, if it elicited a response at all (though of course partisans of all stripes would vehemently claim otherwise) – all that mattered was that it presented a chance to head to the polls. While there was brief speculation that the Bloc might abstain from the budget vote and as a result allow the government to survive (the thinking being that they’d want to avoid an election until their polling had picked up), this would not be the case; the government had been defeated, and Canadians would be sent to the polls on July 7, 2007.

The campaign itself was a bit of an inconsequential affair, as campaigns go, as the polls generally remained steady and consistently showed a neck-and-neck race between Harper and McKenna. Sure, there would be outliers now and then, and the lead would continue to flip back and forth between the two, but beyond that there seemed to be little drama for politicos to obsess over. Sure, there were notable moments – a brief Green surge following Elizabeth May’s well-received appearance in the debates being one of them, though it quickly seemed to recede – but, look, Harper and McKenna were both boring, by the books guys. If Canadians wanted an interesting election they’d have elected someone like Belinda Stronach or Joe Volpe, but they’d had their occasional fun with Chrétien and were in the mood for stable, uninteresting guys. So be it.

That being said, as the campaign went on it seemed that, while Frank McKenna might not necessarily have had the momentum, one thing for sure was that Stephen Harper did not. While as the incumbent Prime Minister he always would’ve had a target on his back, it seemed like everyone was focusing on him and ignoring everyone else: for McKenna he was his primary target of course, but for Gilles Duceppe he was the most pressing threat to the Bloc in Quebec, for Jack Layton he was the guy standing in the way of the NDP’s dozen of target seats out west, and for Elizabeth May he was worst of the bunch when it came to the environment. While the Conservatives had some good news on the campaign trail, and were bolstered by popular star candidates including Lisa Raitt, Peter Kent, André Bachand, and Denis Lebel, among others, they seemed to be taking on water as the campaign went on. Their long-hoped-for gains in Quebec quickly seemed to be thrown in jeopardy, particularly after a controversial statement from Finance minister Jim Flaherty questioning the need for arts funding in Quebec was seized upon by the opposition, and the normally festive Canada Day celebrations on July 1 added another headache for the Harper campaign on the homestretch of the campaign as they were accused of using their position as the government to hijack the Parliament Hill celebrations and turn it into a political event.

As the results trickled in on July 7, it was clear that Harper’s stumbles in government and on the campaign trail were all that was needed to turn his narrow Conservative government into a narrow Liberal government; the Liberals had come on top, 133 seats to 105, and Harper would soon announce his resignation as Conservative leader shortly afterward and speculation would soon shift to who the Conservatives would elect as his successor.