Passkey Down: President Ford is Dead

[Bookmark1995]

I just read this today.

In my old account, I tried to right a TL featuring President Rocky with this exact POD, and you almost captured almost what I imagined. @Vidal

My only contention was that I imagined Reagan skipping the election altogether out of respect for President Ford's death.

Anyways, I hope you continue this TL.

 

[Vidal]

Book II - Nixon's Curse: Tumult in the Presidency

Chapter V

Dismantling More Than Homes

Nelson Rockefeller was a rich man. He was the grandson of John D. Rockefeller, the president of Standard Oil. It was John who established the family’s wealth as well as the family’s reputation for philanthropy. While governor, Rockefeller concerned himself with a prominent issue affecting underprivileged families: a lack of affordable housing. Rockefeller’s concern for urban development did much to help low-income families. Between 1959 and 1967, Rockefeller more than doubled the number of limited-profit housing units in the Empire State. [1] As president, Rockefeller realized he had an incredible opportunity to build up American cities.

With the help of Democrats in Congress, Rockefeller dramatically increased funding for the Department of Housing and Urban Development and granted his Secretary, Carla Anderson Hills, virtually limitless authority in establishing new federal programs for cities and low-income housing. That is not to say Hills acted on her own accord without any concern from the Oval Office. President Rockefeller was every bit as involved in the planning and development of housing and urban development programs as Secretary Hills. The two met frequently and the president was proud of the work they were accomplishing.

He was particularly excited about a federal program that was set to begin in January 1969. It was modeled off of a program Rockefeller executed in New York. The Department identified the top three cities in the United States for homelessness and purchased land to build housing units. The state would lease between one-third and one-half of the units and provide them free of charge for families unable to afford them. The program was modeled after one that Rockefeller spearheaded in New York. To show off the program’s success, Rockefeller and Hills traveled to New York City in a presidential visit that added to traffic congestion and frustrated day-to-day citizens but lifted the spirits of those in the housing developments. Secret Service had been extraordinarily worried about the event, but both the president and Secretary Hills emerged from the tour unharmed. Hills carried with her the impressions made by those in the housing. Their lives had been directly bettered by government involvement.

Rockefeller was passionate about affordable housing and sought to implement some of his New York policies at the national level.​

Conservatives did not care for the programs, viewing them as government welfare of the worst kind. New York Congressman Jack Kemp talked about President Rockefeller’s housing policy on the floor of the House in strictly negative language. “The American dream,” he began, “is to go out and own your own home. A lot of families, in spite of this economy, have been able to do it. But it isn’t easy. Now, the president wants them to pay for two homes. Their own and one for another person in some city they’ve never been to. And that’s just?” Others doubted the program’s constitutionality. Senator Helms called Vice President Dole. “Will you please get the president out of the damn real estate business!” he exclaimed. The vice president was well aware of Rockefeller’s affection for liberal housing policies.

Suddenly, when he became president, Dole was in charge of an expansive Department of Housing and Urban Development. Secretary Hills, knowing she had lost a major ally in President Rockefeller planned to quietly continue her work and the rollout of the federal programs she had set up with the help of the late president. The new president, however, was preparing to take on the Department.

As the homelessness initiative was rolled out in January, President Dole called Secretary Hills into a meeting. He wanted the Secretary to justify the balloon of spending in her department during Rockefeller’s presidency. “As you understand,” the president said, “I’m a fiscal conservative. I don’t believe our government should be wasting money.” Secretary Hills was quick to argue that the appropriations were not a waste of taxpayer dollars. The program would provide those who qualified with homes so that they could spend money on food and clothes and save some money to get off their feet.

She smiled. “It’s not a handout, Mr. President, it’s really a hand-up.” The president nodded his head. The trial period of the program was set to last for two years. In 1981, the Secretary would evaluate the program’s success and could come back to expand it to more cities. She was clear that a focus needed to be placed on urban development. “More and more Americans are heading into the cities,” she explained, “and I can’t tell you how important it is that we keep these programs intact so that the cities are not rife with crime and homelessness.”

Despite Hills’ impassioned defense of the housing programs, President Dole was conscious of the pressure he was facing from the right. In March, when James Buckley took office as vice president, he became instantly concerned with the program. In one of their first meetings, Buckley brought the issue up with the president. “Mr. President,” he asked, “are you aware of the gross overspending at HUD?” Dole nodded and explained what Hills had told him about the program. He also explained his concern about dismantling a key part of President Rockefeller’s legacy just months after the country buried him. Buckley was not persuaded and continued to prepare policy memos through his office on the different programs at HUD and their cost.

President Dole's decision to elevate James Buckley also elevated his brother, William - a prominent leader among the intellectual conservative movement.​

Just two weeks after Vice President Buckley raised the issue to the president, his brother published a stinging op-ed in the National Review. William Buckley, the nation’s foremost conservative intellectual, blasted President Dole’s “complacency” with the amount of waste in the Department of Housing and Urban Development. “Is the president aware that hardworking taxpayers are having their earned money spent to give homes to other people?” Buckley asked rhetorically. Of course, the president was familiar with the program, but he was enraged by the editorial.

He phoned the vice president. “James!” he yelled. “Control your brother!” The president knew it was no coincidence that just two weeks after their conversation about housing programs, the vice president’s brother had an editorial about the issue in his magazine. He had not counted on having a vice president who took his presidency on through the conservative press. He should have known better. Not only were the Buckleys a close family, but they were also decidedly conservative, and the vice president didn’t like to lose. Once the editorial hit, conservatives in Congress demanded that Dole scale back the Rockefeller housing agenda. The president was conflicted.

In a June cabinet meeting, the president announced he was scaling back funding for the Department of Housing and Urban Development and specifically terminating some of the federal programs that the late President Rockefeller had initiated. Hills was blindsided. President Dole did not notify her of the plan before announcing it in the cabinet meeting – a strategic decision he made to avoid confrontation with Hills. The Secretary, however, was not going to let the issue go. “Excuse me, Mr. President, but I have not been informed of this,” she said. “I would like to know why that is the case and why you are going forward with this. I’m afraid I must strenuously object to your dismantling of the late president’s legacy.”

Vice President Buckley interjected. “Madame Secretary, the economy is in less than ideal conditions. We need to focus on allocating money where it can do the most good. We should be letting people hold onto their money. It’s part of paying for the tax cuts we passed earlier.” The vice president knew that Dole would equivocate. He wanted to be perfectly clear with Hills that the program was done. The president echoed the vice president’s sentiment, emphasizing his respect for President Rockefeller but his ultimate desire to not waste taxpayer dollars on a welfare program. Hills was dismayed and submitted her resignation to the president the very next day.

With his reversal of Rockefeller's housing policies, Dole immediately elicited scorn from Republicans, Democrats, and the African-American community.​

Dole’s decisions backfired spectacularly. Former First Lady Happy Rockefeller issued a statement condemning the president’s decision to reverse “the very hard work done by my dear husband.” Democrats on the Hill were outraged. Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy took to the Senate floor. In a brief but forceful speech, the senator eviscerated the president’s dismantling of various HUD programs. He walked the chamber through all of the good the programs were set to do. “And now,” he lamented, “the president has turned his pack on the poor, the sick, the alienated and for what? To keep money in the pockets of his rich donors. It is absolutely despicable!”

The decision also prompted backlash for its perceived racism. As the programs affected disproportionately helped people of color, Dole’s decision came across as an affront to them. The Chairman of the NAACP did not mince words. “President Dole’s actions are a direct attack against African-Americans. There is no other way to interpret them.” Illinois Senator Cardiss Collins, the Chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, published a stinging editorial in the Chicago Tribune. She accused the president of turning his back on black America. Dole was disturbed by the nature of the attacks and uncomfortable with his perception as racist. He wanted to directly engage with the accusations but was counseled not to.

His own wife was also distressed by her husband’s shift in policy. A former cabinet secretary herself, Dole blasted her husband for how he announced the change. She demanded that the president write a handwritten apology to Secretary Hills after accepting her resignation. He did. Elizabeth Dole was a force in the White House and someone that the president consulted frequently. His decision not to talk to her about the housing matter ahead of time indicates an insecurity not in whether or not he should make the decision but in how it would be perceived. In his memoirs, Dole stated plainly that he did not regret his decision, only how people responded to it and interpreted it.

To counter perceptions of racial bias, President Dole announced Samuel Pierce, an African-American lawyer, as his replacement for Secretary Hills. While the appointment may have made some small difference, it was not enough. Especially when taking into consideration another major policy effort of the Dole presidency.

[1] Smith, Richard Norton. On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller (2014), 523.

 

[Vidal]

Book II - Nixon's Curse: Tumult in the Presidency

Chapter VI

The Drug Problem

Several months before he died, President Rockefeller was walking down the halls of the White House with Chief of Staff George Hinman. As they were walking, the president noticed a young intern giving a tour to a group of visitors. There were many days when the patrician president would have just kept walking, but this time he stopped and turned to walk toward the group. “Good morning!” he exclaimed. The intern was flabbergasted. “Oh my!” he said. “Mr. President! Hello! What an honor. Ladies and Gentlemen: the President of the United States!” There was light applause. The president waved them off.

“No need for that,” he said. “Welcome to the White House!” He stood for a few minutes, shaking hands and making small talk. He pointed to the portrait on the wall – a recently unveiled portrait of Gerald Ford, the nation’s recently fallen president. “He was a good man,” Rockefeller said solemnly. “Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. He did a lot of good for our country in a short amount of time.” The president pursed his lips, basking in the silence that had fallen over the group. “Ah well,” he said. “Thank you guys for coming to the White House. Enjoy the rest of your tour.” He grabbed Hinman by the arm and started walking away.

A young black boy turned to his grandmother and tugged on her shirtsleeve. “Grammy,” he asked, “why aren’t there any portraits of people that look like me hanging up here?” The president had just barely been in earshot, but he heard the question and noted the grandmother’s silence. He and Hinman kept walking, the Chief of Staff trying to get the president up to speed on a bill working its way through the Veterans’ Affairs Committee. Then the president stuck out his hand. “Hold on. Just give me a minute, George,” he said, and he returned to the tour group.

He crouched next to the boy and asked him his name. Standing up, he put his hand on the boy’s shoulder. “I would love if you two could come with me,” he said. The grandmother was floored, confused even. The Secret Service was less than thrilled by the idea. But the president got his way. Walking next to the boy and his grandmother, the president excused them from the tour and brought them with him to the Oval Office. Tears welled in the grandmother’s eyes. “Mr. President,” she said, her voice shaking, “this is really too much.”

“No trouble at all!” he insisted. He crouched down to look the boy in the eyes. “Now, go sit behind that desk,” he said, pointing to the Resolute Desk in front of the giant windows. The boy, scared, looked to his grandmother for approval. She smiled and nodded. He skipped to the desk and jumped into the giant black chair. He giggled a bit, his feet dangling over the edge of the chair, his arms spanning the armrests. “Now,” the president said, his arms folded in front of the boy and the desk, “you can absolutely sit behind that desk one day. You can absolutely be the President of the United States,” he said. “It’s a big job, but I bet you can do it.” It became the most iconic photograph of the Rockefeller presidency: the president looking on with a grandmother as a young African-American boy sat behind the president’s desk, a smile on his face as he listened to the most powerful man in the world tell him that he, too, could have that job. “And when your portrait gets hung up in here, I’ll come back to see it,” the president said.

President Nelson Rockefeller delivered the 1978 Commencement Address at Howard University.​

The president’s actions that day reflected a genuine concern for the plight of African-Americans in the United States. In 1958, after Martin Luther King, Jr., was stabbed Rockefeller silently paid the civil rights leader’s medical bills. [1] Much of his desire to solve the housing crisis in New York was rooted in a desire to move black New Yorkers onto the same playing field white New Yorkers enjoyed. As the nation moved out of the 1960s, Rockefeller was very concerned that progress made on race relations not be lost. In May 1978, Rockefeller addressed the graduating class at Howard University. His remarks came 13 years after Lyndon Johnson delivered a similar address and 10 years after MLK’s assassination. In the weeks leading up to the speech, Rockefeller was consumed with its message and labored strenuously over its wording.

Before delivering it at Howard, Rockefeller practiced it several times over at the White House. For one practice, he invited his friend Shirley Chisholm, a Congresswoman from New York, to listen to the remarks. When he finished, he looked at her seriously. “Give it to me straight, Chizzy,” he asked. She laughed. “It was great, Mr. President,” she said with a smile. [2]

​

When the day came, Rockefeller dressed in the traditional attire and was presented with an honorary degree from the University. Nervous, he stepped to the podium to address the class. After wishing the class congratulations on their graduation, he launched into his address. “When you assume a job like that of president, you are immediately burdened by the great men who have held the position before you,” he told them. “I have also felt the weight of this nation’s history – its great and magnificent legacy as well as the darker and crueler parts of the American story that often go neglected. In these dark moments, I have trained myself to find the lights that shine through. One such light is the life of Martin Luther King, Jr. It has been ten years since the reverend’s death and I find myself asking, as I’m sure many of you do, where our country is a decade since he was taken from us.”

With a deep breath, the president continued. “It is not lost on me that had he lived, he would very likely be the one addressing you today, perhaps even while holding the same job title that I do now. As the leader of our nation, I feel a deep sense of urgency in fulfilling the very great work for our nation that the Reverend Martin Luther King started. The true memorial to Reverend King cannot be made of stone. It must be made of action.” [3] The audience interrupted the president with applause while nodding in affirmation. The president went on to give a thoroughly progressive speech in which he talked about the “drug problem” facing the inner cities of the United States. “This is not a problem of crime, it is a problem of addiction,” he remarked, and he devoted his administration to combatting the problem at its root, not exploiting racial prejudices to win the votes of racist whites. It was a highly controversial speech, but one that endeared Rockefeller to African-Americans across the country. [4]

It was also a total reversal of previous policy dealing with drugs in the United States. As Governor of New York, Rockefeller had signed the nation’s toughest drug laws in 1973. In fact, because of the laws, there was a significant backlash to his addressing Howard University five years later. As the president drove up, he saw many protesters bearing signs that told him to turn around and go home. One simply said, “Fuck you, Rocky!” Since entering the White House, however, he had come to witness the New York laws from afar and realized their problems. As president, Rockefeller was continuously briefed on the nation’s drug crisis and saw that New York, under the guidance of the harsh restrictions he put in place, was no better off than other states with laxer laws. Instead, incarceration was dramatically increasing and draining the state’s resources.

In 1977, Gil Scott-Heron’s “Rocky Road Blues” blasted the president’s about-face on racial relations. He attacked the president for once having been a friend of African-Americans and then turning on them to wrap himself in the “agenda of the far-right.” “It’s been a Rocky Road,” he intoned over and over. The poem and the author’s performance of it resonated deeply with Rockefeller who grew nauseous at the realization of what his policies he had done. In his presidency’s final year, Rockefeller became determined to fix his legacy. Part of this may have been of his vanity, but some of it was certainly a genuine desire to right a previous wrong.

Gil-Scott Heron, a musician and political activist, decried Rockefeller's flip-flop on racial issues.​

Six months after his address at Howard University, President Nelson Rockefeller was dead. The new president did not have an extensive relationship with the nation’s black community. Nor was he particularly concerned about winning their votes. For Dole, the path to the presidency rested with conservatives, and that meant he would need to get support in the South and the Mid-West. While there were certainly black votes there, they would not make up his base of support as they had for Rockefeller. Instead, Dole was concerned with the white Americans in suburbia worried about drug use and crime, because he was, too. It represented a moral decay in the nation.

After stoking the burning embers of racial tension by reversing Rockefeller’s housing policy, the New York Times ran an editorial questioning Dole's plan. It asked what the president planned to do about the problem of the mounting drug crisis. Was the president planning on adopting the plans Rockefeller put in place before he died? Or would Dole invoke the memory of Rockefeller the Governor who had displayed no concern for the number of minorities incarcerated as a result of the Rockefeller drug laws. The 40th president seemed intent on the latter, and he fully intended on using his immediate predecessor’s legacy to do it.

At a monthly news conference, one reporter asked a question about the Administration’s position on drug laws. “That’s a very good question,” the president said. “As you know, there’s a lot of crime in our cities. We cannot pretend that it is separable from the mounting drug crisis that is facing this nation. A lot of American families are uncomfortable with it, and frankly so is their president.” Dole then reminded the press about President Nixon’s effort to combat drugs. “President Nixon’s position,” he said, “is President Dole’s position.” The reporter pressed further. “Just to be clear, you are planning on reversing the policies President Rockefeller put in place before his death?” Dole was not looking to fall into that trap. “President Nixon’s position is President Dole’s position, and I remind you it was Governor Rockefeller’s position before that.” He then called on another reporter to move to a new question.

In fact, no one could have guessed then how dramatically President Dole would escalate the War on Drugs. In consultation with Secretary of State Bush, Dole announced a plan to spend $250 million a year combatting guerilla forces in Colombia specifically and an additional $200 million elsewhere in Latin America to combat the drug problem. It was a dramatic foreign aid program, and it was only one part of the Dole Administration’s dramatic War on Drugs initiative.

First Lady Elizabeth Dole played a prominent role in the Dole Administration, particularly in the White House's anti-drug efforts.​

First Lady Elizabeth Dole began touring the nation as part of a “Just Don’t Do It” campaign to talk with teenagers about the harmful effects of drugs. Meanwhile, it seemed that every day President Dole had a new directive or policy proposal in the war on drugs. Dole met with Hollywood executives in an effort to get them to embrace a no-use message in film and television. In a series of executive orders, the president reallocated federal funds for community-based antidrug coalitions and programs in public schools aimed at dealing with drug prevention. His rhetoric on the issue was harsh, even unforgiving. “As President of the United States,” Dole declared in a speech in 1979, “I am given a very important bully pulpit, and I am going to use it tonight to talk about the plague of this century – the one scourging our cities and polluting our children: drugs. And I am here tonight to tell the youth of America one simple message: Just Don’t Do It!” [5]

Unsurprisingly, Dole’s message was popular in the broad swaths of suburban America who viewed drugs as tarnishing their utopian vision of the United States. It was also a message that appealed to internal racism. Not the kind of racism that manifested itself in preventing black people from sitting at lunch counters, but more latent racism – one more ingrained into the American psyche and, for that reason, perhaps more sinister. When Bob Dole talked about the problems with “drug users,” white Americans didn’t picture little Theodore Cleaver; they pictured a black youth in New York or Chicago. In the fight to keep America pure – whatever that meant, Bob Dole was on their side.

Dole’s policies and programs outraged civil rights leaders, and they generated a significant backlash across the United States. But, as Nixon had once guessed, the silent majority of Americans were firmly on the side of their president. Sensing that most Americans were with him, the president pressed on in the face of criticism with a bill conveniently timed to coincide with an upcoming election year. The president wanted senators and congressmen to have to answer to white constituents about why they opposed sensible drug laws in November.

In his 1980 State of the Union Address, the president announced a plan to deal with the drug problem. He wanted to require drug testing for all welfare recipients. To be eligible for any kind of welfare program, except for social security, recipients would need to prove they were not using drugs. He also demanded that the nation establish mandatory minimum sentences for drug users and dealers. In an impassioned speech on the Senate floor, liberal lion Ted Kennedy denounced the president’s blatant attempt to “pit black and white America against each other.” He continued, “I remind the nation’s president that we are but one nation under God, and no matter how hard he tries, President Dole will not succeed in a politics of racial division. Let us leave such rhetoric in the wastebasket of history.” The Dole Administration did not let up.

Fearing Republicans' ability to exploit cultural issues, Tip O'Neill led the Democrats to compromise with Dole on controversial drug legislation.​

Republican legislators swarmed to the president’s side, but they were still the minority party. To succeed, Dole would need the help of conservative lawmakers in the Democratic Party. Even moderates, he believed, would come to his side during an election campaign. In fact, Dole had an unlikely Democratic ally. Public opinion polls showed that Americans across the country were increasingly worried about the nation’s drug problems. While there were a number of problems contributing to the unpopularity of Dole and the Republicans, including a sluggish economy, Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill was worried that Republicans could pull off an upset in 1980 by exploiting cultural issues.

Careful not to have his party perceived as pro-drug or, worse, pro-crime, the Speaker decided to deal with the president on drug policy. O’Neill and the president hammered out a compromise. The president agreed to concede a requirement that Medicaid recipients submit to drug tests and instead limited drug testing to recipients of Aid to Families with Dependent Children. O’Neill agreed to the mandatory minimums. Together, the policies created the Protection of American Families Act of 1980.

Quickly, some conservative Republicans came out against the bill. In fact, Vice President James Buckley harbored his own reservations, concerned that the legislation amounted to an unfunded mandate on the states. In the National Review, William Buckley said that the “intentions of the legislation were honorable,” but that the final bill needed further review before it could be passed. Even conservatives were not on board with the policy now. Dole feared a legislative flop in an election year. To force the bill through Congress, Dole knew he needed to raise public support for the measure through the use of the bully pulpit. It was not his voice the American people wanted to hear though.

First Lady Elizabeth Dole announced the most aggressive public speaking tour of any First Lady in history. She traveled to 22 states in a month-and-a-half, spending almost every single day on the road. It came at a significant expense to the taxpayer, but the First Lady’s down-to-earth charm and her easy demeanor began to win audiences over wherever she went. She appeared on local news programs and gave town hall events in high school gymnasiums. One night, 60 Minutes devoted an entire segment of their show to the First Lady’s tour, following her around, broadcasting part of one of her events, and sitting her down for an interview after. Her charisma made a difference. In town hall events, she would weave through the crowd and pause to speak directly to certain individuals. She would invariably end her remarks by finding a young person in the crowd and meander over to the boy or girl. Resting a hand on the child’s shoulder, she would say, “And this is whom we have to do it for. We have to make sure that America’s future is bright, and it can only be bright if our kids know to just not do it. But it’s more than that, we have to punish those who try and corrupt our youth.” One reporter noted that she almost always selected a black youth in the crowd, if one were available, so as to appeal to the “white savior” complex rooted in much of the middle class.

It worked. When he signed the Protection of American Families Act of 1980 into law in May of that year, Elizabeth Dole stood squarely behind her president. After he got done signing the bill, a smiling president faced the cameras, “Well,” he said, “thank God I had Liddy with me on this one!” Tip O’Neill let loose a mighty laugh. With that, Bob and Elizabeth Dole cemented their legacy as warriors on the front line of the nation’s reinvigorated War on Drugs.

[1] This according to Richard Norton Smith’s On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller. I forgot to write down the page number before returning the book to the library.

[2] Rockefeller and Chisholm were, indeed, friends. “Chizzy” was his affectionate nickname for the Congresswoman. When he was up for confirmation for Vice President, the Congresswoman helped secure multiple votes for him. (Smith, Richard Norton. On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller, 651.)

[3] The line about the “true memorial” is actually Rockefeller’s (Smith, Richard Norton. On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller, 522).

[4] Early on, Rockefeller was very clear that he viewed drug addiction as an illness. He wanted to institutionalize drug users and work with them in helping to kick addiction. At some point in his governorship, Rockefeller transitioned to take a more traditional hardline approach toward drug use and signed the Rockefeller drug laws.

[5] You’ll be amused to know this wordier and less inspiring version of Nancy Reagan’s “Just Say No” campaign is actually something Dole intended to make a key part of his presidency during his 1996 campaign. In fact, drugs were an issue that candidate Dole paid a lot of attention to. Check out his webpage here: http://www.dolekemp96.org/agenda/issues/drugs.htm

 

[Pesterfield]

Fromme was concerned about environmental issues and believed that the clearest way to send a signal about the need for clean air and clean water was to assassinate Gerald Ford

When the Republicans turn anti-environment will they use 'President Ford was killed by an environmentalist' as a justification?

 

[Vidal]

Book II - Nixon's Curse: Tumult in the Presidency

Chapter VII

Decision Time

The mood in the room was somber, like that of a funeral. Losing an election always feels like that for the candidate and staff. This was no different. Releasing the pressure of his tightly pressed lips, the losing candidate opened his mouth to say some words to the delegates in front of him who had just watched as their conservative hero lost the Republican nomination to the Republican-in-Name-Only Nelson Rockefeller. “I want you all to know,” Ronald Reagan said in his always steady voice, “that Nancy and I are not going back and sit on our rocking chairs and say, ‘That’s all for us.’” [1] The delegates, some with tears in their eyes, applauded respectfully. He would always be their president at heart.

Nearly three years later, however, Ronald Reagan was seated at his breakfast table across from his adoring wife, Nancy. He was deeply confused about his own political future. He still wanted to be president, but matters were very different now. His main problem was simple: Nelson Rockefeller was no longer president. Bob Dole was a conservative, and he was running the country with a conservative agenda. He had reversed the Rockefeller presidency’s position on housing, and even in the middle of 1979 it was clear that he planned to do the same to Rockefeller’s drug policies. There was very little room for Reagan to mount a credible bid for the nomination from Dole’s right.

Ronald Reagan talking to reporters after his 1976 primary defeat to President Nelson Rockefeller.​

Another reality was not lost on the potential candidate. In 1963, a young and ambitious president was shot dead in the streets of Dallas. Eleven years later, a president resigned in disgrace. The next year, his successor was shot by a member of the Manson cult. Three years after that, his successor suffered a massive heart attack and collapsed mid-jog. No president had served a complete two terms since Dwight Eisenhower. The American people were yearning for stability. People forgave him for challenging Rockefeller after Ford’s murder because he had clear ideological differences from the man, but a challenge of Dole would be less clear. He would be seen as putting his own thirst for the White House ahead of the nation’s need for domestic tranquility.

Despite all of this weighing on his mind, Ronald Reagan began making calls to precinct captains and donors to tell them he was seriously thinking about another run for the presidency. The response was mixed, as Reagan had anticipated. Some former supporters were thrilled, eager to sign up and do it all over again. Some cautioned him, worried that he could not beat Dole, who had done nothing to anger conservatives. “Sure, he’s a little uninspiring,” they would say, “but he’s no Nelson.” That was true, but Reagan couldn’t afford to wait. He would be 73 years old in 1984, much too old to launch a bid for a first term. If he was going to be president, he had to run now.

As he confided in Nancy, she offered him nothing but support in whatever he chose to do. Secretly, she hoped that her husband would not put her through another presidential campaign. She loved being at home with Ronnie on the ranch. But when her husband told her he was going to New Hampshire to deliver the Commencement Address at Saint Anselm College, Nancy boarded the plane with her husband and sat next to him, firmly holding his hand. She was the epitome of a dutiful politician’s wife. If Reagan made it to the Oval Office, it would be thanks in no small part to Nancy’s stabilizing presence in his life.

The question was, of course, a major if. For all of Reagan’s personal doubts, President Dole and his team were equally concerned about a Reagan candidacy. Dole’s newly appointed Chief of Staff Dick Cheney, the architect behind the Administration’s political push for harsh drug policies in the next year, was convinced that Reagan would run. “When you want the presidency,” Cheney said, speaking in a peculiarly honest way, “you have a sort of tunnel vision. You can’t get it out of your head. You fall asleep dreaming of walking across the South Lawn to Marine One and wake up in the middle of your second Inaugural Address. Ronald Reagan is running for president.” News that Reagan was giving the graduation speech at Saint Anselm, a must-stop locale in the presidential campaign process, only cemented Cheney’s suspicions that Dole needed to prepare for a primary challenge. It was part of the why Dole moved his administration’s policies to the right.

Dole and Reagan campaigning together in 1976 when Dole was running for reelection as vice president and Reagan was a surrogate.​

Nelson Rockefeller had been genuinely undecided on another run for the White House. He was, of course, unwilling to give up the White House. It was a long-held ambition, implanted deep within his bones by his mother. He was, however, acutely aware of the political situation, understood it was likely impossible for him to be re-nominated, and thoroughly unimpressed by the idea of going out a loser. Some took his reversal on drugs to be an admission that he had run his last campaign. Others believed he had been planning to run as an independent. No one could know for sure as he had died before really finalizing any sort of plans.

For Bob Dole, there was no doubt that he wanted to run for another term – a term of his own. Like Cheney had said, it takes a certain kind of man to believe he is suited to hold the world’s most powerful job, but for the men who do there is no other job to satisfy them. He was, however, very worried about a protracted campaign with Ronald Reagan. But for one mishap here or there, Reagan would almost certainly have crushed Rockefeller, and even though he was more liberal than most Republicans, he was also a significantly better retail politician than Dole was. In fact, Dole believed Rockefeller was as good a candidate as Reagan had been, and he believed that is what ultimately made the difference during the primary campaign. How could Dole measure up to that?

Dick Cheney believed that any campaign against Reagan, and he was sure there’d be one, would have to paint Reagan as thoroughly unpatriotic. Of course, you couldn’t win votes by refuting someone’s right to challenge a sitting president. Instead, Cheney argued that Dole’s campaign had to emphasize a message of nostalgia and stability. He believed firmly that part of securing this image would necessitate and active and robust presence from Elizabeth Dole, who was a natural campaigner and evoked a June Cleaver impression when speaking about her husband.

Reagan continued to traipse around the country. After appearing at Saint Anselm, Reagan stayed in New Hampshire for three days, going to rod and gun clubs, local diners, and town meetings. When one Republican shook his hand and said he hoped Reagan would run again, the ex-governor just smiled. “Well, I’m not going to lie to you,” he said, “I’m definitely thinking about it!” When news reached the White House, Dole was incredibly nervous, living on edge of a Reagan announcement at any time. Internal polling, however, suggested that Dole should have a pretty easy time claiming the Republican nomination. His real threat, the polls suggested, was in the general election.

White House Chief of Staff Dick Cheney (left) was convinced that Reagan would challenge Dole for the nomination.​

Americans were thoroughly on edge as the 1980 election approached. The economy was stagnant, an energy crisis, largely addressed by President Rockefeller, continued to linger, and America’s standing in the world was somewhat questionable. Nelson Rockefeller had been unable to negotiate the Middle East peace that many had thought possible, and Bob Dole was anxiously awaiting the return of Israeli and Egyptian representatives to Camp David later that year. Most of all, Americans were just tired, and Bob Dole didn’t exactly provide the kind of hope or optimism they yearned for. As the economy continued to falter, weighed down by a “stagflation” crisis, Dole’s approval ratings continued to drop.

The election would not, however, be unwinnable. For all of their concerns about the direction of the country, many Americans were not looking for any more instability. Losing the lives of Kennedy, Ford, and Rockefeller and their trust in Johnson and Nixon meant many Americans welcomed Bob Dole’s relative youth and averageness. He was Uncle Bob, and they didn’t seem to mind it all that much. In fact, they kind of liked his quirkiness, his bland appearance and tone, his tendency to slip into the third person. In some ways, America was looking for stability and blandness – they were still reeling from two decades of insurrection and instability.

That was exactly why Ronald Reagan needed to get to the general election. He believed that there was no other person in the country better suited for the condition of the United States in 1980 than he was, but he was simply unable to map out any credible path to the Republican nomination. Conservative allies told him that Dole was doing the job well, and if he did happen to slip they were well armed with Vice President Buckley and his brother over at the National Review. They lamented that Reagan hadn’t bested Rockefeller in 1976, or that the old sonofabitch hadn’t replaced Dole on the ticket with Reagan, himself, but it had happened, and it was over. The Party had moved on, they said, and so should Reagan.

On November 13, 1979, Ronald Reagan appeared on the CBS Evening News to announce that he was not going to run for President of the United States in 1980. With Nancy seated beside him, her hand gently resting on his knee, Reagan thanked the American public for their support. “In the end, I think President Dole has done a fine job,” he said, “and I can’t think of any reason why I should run against him. I look forward to campaigning with him in the upcoming year, if that’s something he would like.” From the White House Residence, Bob Dole let out an enormous sigh of relief. So, too, did Liddy Dole. They thought they could actually here Dick Cheney’s yell of jubilee from all the way in the West Wing.

With the Republican nomination safe, Dole became interested in who the Democrats would nominate to run against him. Throughout 1979, as various Democrats began considering a run for the White House, President Dole looked beatable, but victory was not certain. The race was appealing to many Democrats, but there was nothing at that point to indicate an easy win. Jimmy Carter’s running mate from 1976, Walter Mondale, was the first to declare his presidential campaign. Those on the left were pleased with his candidacy. Most others, however, were waiting to hear about what a certain senator from Massachusetts intended to do.

A prolific orator and progressive hero, Ted Kennedy was an early favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1980.​

Ted Kennedy was a unique figure in American politics. Like most politicians, he harbored some kind of desire to be president, but he also greatly loved the United States Senate, which he truly believed to be the world’s greatest deliberative body. He had watched one brother be killed during his presidency and another be shot during a campaign for the office. Any campaign for the White House carried a certain risk to his life that Kennedy was unsure he wanted to bear. Yet, Kennedy was deeply concerned about the direction of the nation. Dole’s conservatism enraged him, and despite staggering Democratic majorities in Congress, a Republican White House prevented important work on issues that mattered to him, namely health care, and he watched as social programs, like those of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, got the ax under Dole’s leadership.

In 1978, while only mildly flirting with the idea of a presidential campaign, Kennedy traveled to Memphis, Tennessee, where he blasted the Democratic Party’s faux liberalism and called for true progressivism. “Sometimes,” he told the crowd, “a party must sail against the wind!” The young governor of Arkansas, Bill Clinton, later wrote Kennedy to tell him he had never quite seen a crowd react like that. It put Kennedy on the path to seriously considering a campaign for the White House. [2]

Kennedy gave the idea of a presidential campaign a lot of thought, but was ultimately unconvinced it was the best decision for him. His marriage was rocky, at best, and while he believed the country needed a liberal champion in the White House, he was also sure it needed someone in the Senate to get the legislation through. Kennedy commanded a great deal of influence in the body, and he believed that he would be needed there to get the next president’s agenda through. In June of 1979, Senator Kennedy made absolutely clear he would not seek, nor would he accept, the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States. For everyone else, the race was just beginning.

[1] The quotation, and it’s awkward wording, are lifted from Reagan’s own account. (Reagan, Ronald. An American Life (1990), 203.)

[2] The event occurred, as described here, in our timeline. The spirit of Clinton’s reaction, too, is how Kennedy himself described it. (Kennedy, Edward M. True Compass (2009), 363.)

 

[historybuff]

A fine update.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I feel a little bit bad for Reagan. I don't think he presidency was good, but still, I feel for a man who must give up his dreams due to political reality.

Good update. 1980 will be one hell of an election.

 

[PresidentZinn]

Great work as usual. Would love to see a Carrey/Bentsen ticket in 1980.

 

[PresidentZinn]

Gov. Hugh Carey/Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D) 396 Electoral Votes, 53% of the Popular Vote

Pres. Bob Dole/VP. James L. Buckley (R) 142 Electoral Votes, 45% of the Popular Vote

 

[Vidal]

Book II - Nixon's Curse: Tumult in the Presidency

Chapter VIII

Back to the Table

“I swear to God, if another kid gets into this race, I just don’t know what I’m going to do,” Bob Byrd said, his words landing with a thud in the room. He had addressed a truth few had wanted to acknowledge. The Democratic field for president looked incredibly weak. Senator Joe Biden, a mere 38 years old, was the newest entrant, joining Walter Mondale, Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, and Gary Hart, only 42 years old. Byrd’s colleague, Lloyd Bentsen, nodded in agreement. “It’s a shame,” he said, “that they don’t try and get more experience before running. They all think they’re Jack Kennedy. Well, I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine, and these men are no Jack Kennedys.”

It was before the backdrop of a weak Democratic field that a confident President Bob Dole made the drive to Camp David to begin anew the quest for Middle East Peace. He silently cursed his predecessor for dropping this problem on his lap, but he knew that it was an important task. Tensions were still high. While Prime Minister Menachem Begin had held his end of the bargain and refrained from expanding Israeli settlements, he was under increasing pressure back home to expand the Israeli state. In fact, he nearly lost the support of his own party after the 1978 Camp David Meeting. Anwar el-Sadat, the President of Egypt, had also suffered from backlash back home with concerns mounting that he was giving in to the Israelis. President Dole was simply not sure what to do. He had inherited a mess.

When the leaders convened, they held a moment of silence for the late President Nelson Rockefeller, whose presence hung over the next several days of negotiations. Like Rockefeller before him, President Dole would come to rely extensively on Secretary of State George Bush to help bring the negotiations to a close. Both leaders expressed their sympathies for President Dole and the United States. The president pushed on with the agenda, determined to reach an agreement in three days. He had not counted on the fact that a year back home with passionate citizens and partisan political colleagues would fuel each man’s determination not to compromise.

Whereas before the two leaders were unwilling to negotiate with Bush, they had come to see the Secretary of State as a more knowledgeable figure on international affairs, and they were more willing to work with him. He was a familiar presence at the talks and one both leaders felt they could trust after communicating with him in the interim year. President Dole, thankful for Bush’s presence and assistance, gave him extensive prerogative in coming to an agreement. By the end of the second day, the president was frustrated, concerned that they had made no substantial progress in reaching an agreement. While Secretary Bush urged patience, the president struggled in handling international affairs. In this respect, he resembled his predecessor.

Secretary of State George H.W. Bush was crucial to the new president's negotiations with Middle East leaders.​

Bush, however, proved himself as a negotiator and began to hammer out a deal, and he quickly identified the major problem in any peace deal. Despite his personal and impassioned desire for peace, Anwar el-Sadat was facing immense pressure from his fellow Arab nations not to come to any agreement with Israel in which they did not fully recognize a Palestinian right to return, at the very least. In fact, most other Arab nations believed that any recognition of Israel would be catastrophic to their influence in the world stage. Sadat feared for Egypt’s future and, even, for his own life. On the third day of negotiations, Bush and Sadat walked through the forest of Camp David as Bush listened to a frustrated Sadat vent about the precarious state he found himself in. Bush put his arm around Sadat and promised he would get them the best deal possible, but that he ultimately had to decide what was best for the world. “This is bigger than any of us,” Bush said, “and it’s bigger than any of our countries.”

With this in mind, Bush advised President Dole to shift the conversation from a framework for Middle East Peace and to instead focus on simply creating an agreement between Egypt and Israel. Dole heeded Bush’s advice and centered the conversations as narrowly as possible. The negotiations began to make progress. The key issue was that of the Sinai Peninsula. Israel had gradually been expanding its reach in the region and creating settlements. Sadat was unwilling to abide by such an intrusion. For Sadat, there could be no deal without Israel packing up their settlements and returning home. For Begin, this was simply out of the question.

At a private dinner, the president vented his frustration to Bush. “It’s like we’re the only ones who want peace,” he said. Bush understood the president’s dismay at the process, but he was better suited to handling the minutiae of diplomatic negotiations. In fact, Bush was having a splendid time. He wrote Barbara daily to tell her “the most exciting news” from the proceedings. In one letter written after their dinner, the Secretary of State wrote, “The president is not holding up well. He’s terribly disheartened by the process. More upset where N.R. [Rockefeller] was simply annoyed, frustrated. He has given me greater authority in running the proceedings. I believe I can hammer out a deal in the next two days.”

The next morning, Bush had breakfast with Begin. While the conversation began casually, Bush steered it to the topic of negotiations. He pressed Begin on the international importance of securing a deal. “The eyes of the world are on us,” Bush said. “We must deliver.” Begin was unconvinced. They had made it through fine without a deal last time, and his political party in Israel was less willing to come to an agreement than they had been before. Bush insisted that Begin compromise on the issue of settlements. “You’re missing the bigger picture,” he explained. “If you come out of here as a state recognized by Egypt, you’ve won. The rest of the Arab world will have to follow suit, it’ll just be a matter of time.”

With the idea of a framework for larger Middle East Peace abandoned, Bush concentrated on securing an agreement between Sadat and Begin that represented some kind of treaty for stability between Egypt and Israel. On the fifth day, he was successful. Begin took to heart what Bush had said and came to agree with it. He needed Egyptian recognition of Israel. If Sadat was willing to give him that, Begin could withdraw the settlements. With recognition from one Arab nation, Israel would be granted immense legitimacy heading into future negotiations. Sadat agreed to offer recognition of the Israeli state in exchange for Israel recognizing Egypt’s autonomy over the Sinai peninsula. Of course, this also meant that a healthy supply of oil would return to Egyptian hands. [1]

President Dole and Secretary of State Bush discussing the peace agreement with the press.​

While President Dole joined Sadat and Begin for a press conference to announce the agreement, word quickly leaked that George Bush had secured the agreement for the United States. In reality, though Bush was indispensable, it was Anwar el-Sadat’s personal desire to bring about peace that the deal was possible. Bush dragged Begin along, but Sadat ultimately had the most to lose, and he was willing to sacrifice that for the sake of an agreement. Tired, Bush left Camp David and head to Kennebunkport, Maine for a week with Barbara and their children and grandchildren. At night, before falling to sleep, Bush turned to tell Barbara how much he had missed President Rockefeller during the negotiations. “He had truly become my partner,” Bush said.

He recounted a conversation more than two years earlier, just after his inauguration, in which the president approached Bush with a plan to end the Cold War. He estimated it would take his entire term, but he believed it was possible. The Secretary smiled. “Alright, Mr. President. How do you propose we do it?” Bush recalled the president’s smile as it grew to a wide grin. Rockefeller let out a brief chortle. “That’s it, my boy! We’re going to do what Rockefeller’s do best. We’re going to buy the peace!” Bush was thoroughly intrigued.

Yet, Rockefeller’s plan seemed to make sense. He proposed a mass appropriation of funds to foreign aid to nations that were in one way or another reliant upon Soviet rule. The idea was to spend enough money to build up nations previously dependent upon the Soviet Union until they were ready to be independent nations. When countries came to realize there was no need for the Soviet Union, the USSR would be weakened. They may even begin spending money to try and make up for it, driving themselves into bankruptcy. Furthermore, it would bolster the image of the United States around the globe. Rockefeller viewed a massive commitment to foreign aid by the United States as essential to winning the Cold War. “We have to show the world they want us, not them!” he bellowed. Bush, though somewhat skeptical, signed on.

The White House got to work, preparing a proposal to bring to Congress and also a speech for the United Nations to be delivered the following year. During his speech, Rockefeller would outline his new doctrine of American foreign policy. In some ways, Rockefeller was really just proposing a modernized Truman Doctrine. The difference, however, was that Truman’s policy of containment was done as an alternative to détente. Rockefeller envisioned a burgeoning foreign aid program as working in conjunction with a broader policy of détente. This way, as relations between the Soviet Union and the United States thawed, nations came to favor America thanks. “We really will be buying the peace,” the president maintained.

President Rockefeller's influence and legacy clouded the peace negotiations.​

Rockefeller’s proposal was deeply Rockefeller in its conception. It combined the outlook of the world Rockefeller formed while serving in Eisenhower’s State Department with Rockefeller’s general approach to government spending. While working under Ike, Rockefeller came to believe that funding underdeveloped countries were essential in preventing them from turning to communism. The United States, Rockefeller maintained, had to be a supplier of aid so that countries would adopt America’s democratic principles. By building underdeveloped countries, the United States would serve its own goals. [2] He simultaneously believed that his country, like his family, had been afforded immense privilege and so had to justify its riches by sharing its considerable wealth. [3]

That night in Kennebunkport, Bush lamented the loss of Rockefeller – the dreamer, the big thinker. He laughed, too, at the speech Rockefeller delivered to the United Nations General Assembly. While the State Department had largely watered down Rockefeller’s address, insisting that his Doctrine needed greater thought and attention, Rockefeller insisted on going anyway. His speech was average, the kind of call for democracy and international peace that was typical of American presidents. He also highlighted the upcoming talks at Camp David with Israel and Egypt. Then, when he got done with his speech, Rockefeller grabbed Bush. “Come on,” he instructed. Bush asked where they were going. “I hear that the Prime Minister [Martin Foot of the United Kingdom] is here. He’s really a most dreadful man, and we must hurry before he catches us!”

Rockefeller, Bush, and their entourage then began a frantic sprint after Rockefeller’s speech to reach the presidential motorcade before Prime Minister Foot was able to track them down to discuss world affairs. When they made it to the car without a Foot sighting, Rockefeller, breathing heavily, told Bush, “It’s not as though I don’t like discussing international matters. I just don’t care to discuss them with him.” And with that, the motorcade took off and the meeting at the United Nations was over.

Rockefeller died before any serious action could be taken on his proposed Rockefeller Doctrine. Of course, he had dramatically increased foreign aid while in office, but President Dole had gradually chipped away at that after Rockefeller’s death, much to Secretary Bush’s chagrin. He fell asleep that night proud of his accomplishments at Camp David, but thoroughly missing his former boss. He was back in Kennebunkport two months later when he received a distressing call.

At around two o’clock in the morning on November 11th, Secretary Bush woke up to the sound of a ringing phone. Still groggy, he reached for it and answered. “Hello?” The voice on the other end was stern, authoritative even. “Mr. Secretary, I’m afraid you’ll need to come to Washington immediately. There’s a situation developing in Iran. It appears that some protesters have taken control of our embassy.” The Secretary was stunned. Of course, relations with Iran had been deteriorating, but he had no idea that such a demonstration was coming. The Secretary thanked the person on the other line and headed for the shower. When he got out and was dressed, he kissed Barbara on the forehead.

“Where are you going?” she asked, confused. The Secretary was vague in his response because he really didn’t have all that much information. “I need to head back to Washington, there’s some kind of crisis developing in Iran. Join me when you can,” he said. With that, he and his security deal departed the comfort and tranquility of Kennebunkport and headed back to the usual tumult of Washington. On the plane, Bush received more information. President Dole and others in the Situation Room had conferenced him in. The protesters had taken control of the embassy and had roughly 90 people hostage. Sixty-five hostages were American. A woman and two African-Americans were not taken hostage and allowed to go free. Another American had died in the overtaking of the embassy and his body was being flown back to the United States. [4]

The Iranian Hostage Crisis marked the first real military challenge of the Dole presidency.​

By 7:00, when the morning shows began coverage, they had their first story. A dramatic takeover of the embassy in Tehran. Sixty-five Americans held hostage. Three released. One dead. No statement yet from the White House other than word that President Dole was “closely monitoring” the situation and there would be more information at the day’s press briefing. In the Situation Room, President Dole had grown deeply distressed by the situation. “We have to get them back!” he yelled. When Secretary of State Bush joined later in the morning, he was overcome with shock at the events that had taken place.

Dole knew that his decision to allow the shah of Iran to receive treatment for his cancer in the United States was a controversial move, but conservatives in the United States had put a great deal of pressure to allow him to do so. Henry Kissinger, the former Secretary of State, had phoned Dole and Bush repeatedly in the run-up to the decision, insisting that the shah be granted access to medical treatment in the United States. Dole relented, and not just because of the pressure. He also saw the value in the United States coming to the help of a leader who represented a former democratic regime in an Iran now run by the Ayatollah. Quickly, though, Dole needed to make a decision about how to deal with the hostage situation.

Unfortunately for Dole, he was really without direction. The idea that an incumbent government would support the takeover of an embassy and holding so many Americans hostage was truly new terrain diplomatically. Many in the State Department assumed that no attempt could seriously last for very long. Acting on this advice, Dole stalled with any public admission of what he was planning on doing. He was immediately torn between two instincts: A desire to bring the hostages home quickly and his belief that he could not negotiate with the hostage-takers for fear it would create a precedent and encourage future behavior when a group or government wanted something from the United States.

A week later, however, it became clear that the crisis was not going to simply go away. Protesters lined the gates of the White House holding signs. “Deport all Iranians!” “Release the Hostages Now!” Dole’s public approval rating went up from 40% to 48% the week after the hostages were taken. However, by the time the country was well into December, there were serious doubts about President Dole’s leadership abilities. “Just Do Something!” the signs started to read. Dole was a president torn, and the Democrats began to realize their odds of winning the White House might actually be going up.

The event occurred just in time for Lawton Chiles, a United States Senator from Florida. Texas Senator Lloyd Bentsen and Florida Governor Bob Graham were both urging Chiles to get into the race, believing that the only way Dole could be defeated was with a calming presence. Chiles, the epitome of a Southern gentleman, was their choice. He was liberal, but not frighteningly so. He was 50 years old. Relatively young, but he didn’t look boyish like Biden and Hart. Bentsen and others had urged Chiles to run because they believed his backbench style was exactly what the country needed after so many years of upheaval. Just two weeks after Chiles announced his campaign for the presidency, Americans in Iran were taken hostage, the economy contracted again, and it looked like there was going to be a Democrat in the White House. Before he could get there, though, he needed to beat the progressives.

[1] This is basically the agreement from OTL as it relates to Israel and Egypt specifically. Missing, however, is the significant aid package the United States promised both nations. The major difference, though, is that there is no broader framework for Middle East Peace. It was in that proposal that Sadat greatly angered Jordan, especially, because he basically volunteered them to come to his side during the negotiations. However, the Arab world will remain infuriated with Sadat for his recognition of Israel.

[2] Smith, Richard Norton. On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller, 240.

[3] Smith, Richard Norton. On His Own Terms: A Life of Nelson Rockefeller, 253.

[4] Some differences here: the hostages are taken a week later ITTL than they were in ours. Also, no one died in the protest/taking of the embassy. That’s a significant change from OTL. The hostage-takers did, however, not take the two African-Americans hostage, citing the amount of racism they already experienced, nor did they take the woman hostage, citing the importance of women in Islamic tradition.

 

[Vidal]

Only two more updates left!

 

[Sceonn]

Just found this, very interesting and engaging. Thanks for the update!

 

[PresidentZinn]

Only two more updates left!

Sorry to hear that. Can’t complain though. This TL is a gem. Glad you’re bringing Chiles into the picture. He is an overlooked figure as far as 70s/80s political TLs go.

 

[49ersFootball]

Book I - America in Waiting: The Remainder of Nixon's Term

Chapter IV

To The Finish

As janitors and crew swept up the fallen confetti and popped the remaining balloons in Kansas City, Senator Jesse Helms awoke with a new mission. He may have just cost Ronald Reagan the Republican nomination (though he tended to think he didn’t), but at least he had not compromised on his principles. Reagan, in his eyes, was weak and ineffectual. If you weren’t willing to stick to the conservative platform, you had no place leading the conservative movement. John Sears, Reagan’s campaign manager, agreed to come on as Helms’ campaign manager. Immediately, they would need to get to work on securing ballot access in as many states as possible. They had little time, but Helms’ extensive donor list enabled them to raise the money needed to hire canvassers to get the needed signatures. Helms announced his running mate, Maryland Congressman Bob Bauman, two days after the Republican National Convention.

Ronald Reagan returned to California dejected and confused. He had gone from nearly becoming the Republican nominee to thoroughly unsure of his role within the Republican Party. He as tempted to endorse Helms and campaign for him, but if Reagan wanted to win the Republican nomination in 1980, he would need to be a Party man. He endorsed Rockefeller, only further angering Helms. Largely, though, Reagan faded from the national spotlight, awaiting a chance to return should Rockefeller lose the election.

The Rockefeller campaign was thrilled by Helms’ entrance. In fact, Rockefeller sent volunteers to help Helms get on the ballot in Southern states where he believed Helms would draw supporters away from the regional candidate, Democrat Jimmy Carter. In many ways, Carter was a more conservative candidate than Rockefeller. The president hoped to exploit Helms’ candidacy to his advantage by tying Carter and Helms together ideologically, giving him room for half of the middle and the left. In fact, some Democratic lawmakers privately confessed they were considering voting for Rockefeller.

Democrat Jimmy Carter campaigning for the White House in 1976.​

The 1976 campaign was significant for this very reason. Neither candidate neatly fit into the ideological boundaries of their time. Carter, a Southerner, was part of the New South, but still attended a segregated church. Rockefeller, a liberal Republican, was of a dying breed. In fact, it was likely that he would be the last moderate Republican nominated, but if he were elected in November, it was possible that the moderates might return to the Republican Party and the New Right could form their own party or rejoin the Democrats. The future of it all was very uncertain. Those questions would be left to political scientists and historians, however. In the meantime, there was a three-way race for the presidency.

The Rockefeller/Dole ticket again emphasized Rockefeller’s stable leadership and the need for the White House to remain in trusted hands. Rockefeller had been around for decades. The American people knew him and could trust him. He’d run the Rockefeller Commission to bring transparency to government in the wake of Watergate. Carter was an unknown. His candidacy began with the question of, “Jimmy who?” and many Americans still didn’t know him by the time the general election campaign kicked off. Though some Americans, still reeling from Watergate, thought the country needed a fresh start, many more were convinced that after the resignation of one president and the assassination of another, it was time to project strength from the Oval Office. Rockefeller certainly did that. It would be tough to overstate how much the assassination of Gerald Ford shocked the American psyche. It was the fourth high profile political assassination in ten years. For many, it brought back the images of Robert Kennedy, bleeding on the kitchen floor of Los Angele’s Ambassador Hotel. Carter appealed on the basis of a new start – a chance to put that history behind them. Rockefeller appealed to voters because he was someone they could trust to do the job and halt the instability gripping the nation. Jesse Helms was just too radical for most voters outside of the South.

For much of September, the race progressed without incident. Carter’s running mate Walter Mondale hit Rockefeller for moving to the right. Most voters found the attempts to label Rockefeller as too conservative laughable. After all, conservatives literally created a third party to challenge Rockefeller. The Rockefeller campaign stayed on message almost painfully. Every campaign ad, every stump speech, and every interview answer seemed to say the same thing: When America needed a leader; Nelson Rockefeller stepped up to the plate. Plus, Carter’s Watergate message was falling short. Without criticizing the pardon of Nixon (which could not be connected to Rockefeller), Carter just seemed to be emphasizing his peanut farm. The Republican Party, with Rockefeller at the helm, was sufficiently distanced from Watergate.

Senator Jesse Helms ran for the presidency as an independent; he was the most conservative candidate in the race.​

In early October, Rockefeller led and Carter felt it was time to drift from his comfort zone. He sat for an interview in Playboy where he committed one of the greatest gaffes in presidential politics. Asked about his views on sin, Carter replied that he had “committed adultery in my heart many times.” And confessed he looked at many women with lust. Somehow Jimmy Carter managed to the morality argument to a man who divorced his first wife so he could marry his mistress. Carter’s campaign staff was distraught. Hamilton Jordan, the campaign manager, remarked how “only Carter” could think talking about lust in Playboy magazine would win him votes. “The most religious candidate of our generation,” Jordan said in disbelief, “somehow lost on the question of morality to a serial cheater. Un-fucking-believable. Actually, I take that back. Not with Jimmy.”

Unfortunately for Carter, the candidates were unable to come to an agreement on any televised debates, which may have given Carter the platform to come back. Neither side particularly wanted them. Carter’s staff thought he would do poorly against the more polished Rockefeller. The Republicans didn’t want to put Carter on equal footing as the president. Helms, for his part, demanded a national debate, but while Carter himself wanted to debate Helms, his staff said that the image of Carter on stage with a third party candidate and without Rockefeller would diminish his standing against Rockefeller. “It’ll look like the kids are running amok while Rockefeller is the only responsible candidate,” Jordan explained.

While Carter himself wanted to debate Rockefeller, his campaign team worried about how he'd do against the president.​

The polls indicated that the national popular vote was anyone’s for the taking and when voting ended on Election Day, neither side was sure who would come out on top. Early on, everyone realized it was going to be a close fight. The percentage of the vote Helms was able to land would prove key in several states. Rather quickly, Helms was declared the winner of his native North Carolina, taking 13 electoral votes away from the Democrats who were widely expected to carry the South. Rockefeller took most of the Northeast, including his home state of New York. Carter, however, was able to hold on to Massachusetts and Rhode Island, states that wouldn’t budge from the Democratic column no matter how liberal the Republican was. He also managed to take Maine where his outsider image and Southern charm proved more relatable than Rockefeller’s penthouse appeal.

Reporters quickly identified the closest states of the night: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, and California – a combined 123 electoral votes that had the ability to decide the election. Carter would likely need all of them to win the election given Helms scored electoral victories in Arkansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina (21 electoral votes that would have afforded Carter the ability to lose Ohio or Pennsylvania). At the White House, Rockefeller looked with horror as Texas and its 26 electoral votes were called for Carter. Of course, no Democrat in recent memory had ever made it to the White House without Texas. It was more important for Democrats than it was for Republicans.

Without Texas, however, Oregon’s six electoral votes were more important. Rockefeller sat at 211 electoral votes and Carter had 190. Carter had to win California’s 45 electoral votes in order to have a chance. He would need at least Pennsylvania and Ohio to win the election. Rockefeller could afford to lose Oregon but not both Pennsylvania and Ohio if he lost California. The nightmare scenario would be for no candidate to reach 270. If either candidate won California, but not some combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Oregon, the election would go to the House to decide the president and the Senate to decide the vice president. Neither Carter nor Rockefeller wanted that outcome.

When the networks called Ohio for Rockefeller, it helped dampen some of that concern. Then, Barbara Walters broke in with an important announcement on ABC News. “We can now call California, and the presidency, for President Nelson Rockefeller.” The president went on to win Pennsylvania and Oregon. Carter, for his part, did reasonably well. Helms drew rather evenly from both sides, but some speculated that had he not been on the ballot in California those Reagan Republican votes could have broken for Carter as opposed to Rockefeller. Perhaps they, with enough votes in Ohio or Pennsylvania, could have tipped the presidency. Helms didn’t give a damn. He was no more upset that Rockefeller had won than he would’ve been had Carter won. In his eyes, the whole election was an enormous waste of time.

President Nelson Rockefeller and the First Lady, Happy, at Rockefeller's victory party on Election Night 1976.​

Carter delivered a gracious concession speech in which he called on the country to unite as it did 200 years earlier at the founding of the nation. “Like our revolutionary heroes before us, we march into this third century for our country with hope and optimism – determined to do all we can as Americans to leave a better nation for our posterity.” The next morning, Rockefeller held a press conference at the White House where he thanked Carter for his words and invited him to the White House for a discussion. It was the first time the candidates would formally meet.

Right away, Rockefeller began working on his new administration. He hoped to push forward major energy legislation, which became a topic of discussion with Carter during the governor’s visit. He also wanted to replace some of the cabinet holdovers with his new people. Bush and Clements would stay on. Cheney, back from the campaign, nabbed a role as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Rockefeller asked Lowell Weicker of Connecticut to join his administration as the Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare, but Weicker expressed a desire to remain in the Senate. Rockefeller decided to appoint former Michigan Governor George Romney to the position.

United States Presidential Election, 1976

Nelson A. Rockefeller/Robert Dole (R) ... 314 electoral votes ... 46.6% of the popular vote
James E. Carter/Walter F. Mondale (D) ... 190 electoral votes ... 43.5% of the popular vote
Jesse Helms/Robert E. Bauman (I) ... 34 electoral votes ... 9.9% of the popular vote

United States Senate Elections, 1976
Arizona: Dennis DeConcini, D def. Sam Steiger, R. (D+1)
California: S.I. Hayakawa, R def. Sen. John V. Tunney, D. (R+1)
Connecticut: Sen. Lowell P. Weicker, R def. Gloria Schaffer, D.
Delaware: Sen. William V. Roth, Jr., R def. Thomas C. Maloney, D.
Florida: Sen. Lawton Chiles, D def. John Grady, R.
Hawaii: Spark Matsunaga, D def. William F. Quinn, R. (D+1)
Indiana: Sen. Richard Lugar, R def. Sen. Vance Hartke, D. (R+1)
Maine: Sen. Edmund Muskie, D def. Robert Monks, R.
Maryland: Paul Sarbanes, D def. Sen. John Glenn Beall, Jr., R. (D+1)
Massachusetts: Sen. Ted Kennedy, D def. Michael Robertson, R.
Michigan: Philip Hart, D def. Marvin L. Esch, R.
Minnesota: Sen. Hubert Humphrey, D def. Gerald Brekke, R.
Mississippi: Sen. John C. Stennis, D reelected without opposition.
Missouri: John Danforth, R def. Warren E. Hearnes, D. (R+1)
Montana: John Melcher, D def. Stanley C. Burger, R.
Nebraska: Edward Zorinsky, D def. John McCollister, R. (D+1)
Nevada: Sen. Howard Cannon, D def. David Towell, R.
New Jersey: Sen. Harrison A. Williams, D def. David A. Norcross, R.
New Mexico: Harrison Scmitt, R def. Sen. Joseph Montoya, D. (R+1)
New York: Bell Abzug, D def. Sen. James Buckley, R. (D+1)
North Dakota: Sen. Quentin N. Burdick, D def. Robert Stroup, R.
Ohio: Sen. Robert Taft, Jr., R def. Howard Metzenbaum, D.
Pennsylvania: H. John Heinz III, R def. William J. Green III, D.
Rhode Island: John Chafee, R def. Richard Lorber, D. (R+1)
Tennessee: Jim Sasser, D def. Sen. Bill Brock, R. (D+1)
Texas: Sen. Lloyd Bentsen, D def. Alan Steelman, R.
Utah: Orrin Hatch, R def. Sen. Frank Moss, D. (R+1)
Vermont: Sen. Robert Stafford, R def. Thomas P. Salmon, D.
Virginia: Harry F. Byrd, I def. Elmo Zumwalt, Jr., D.
Washington: Sen. Henry “Scoop” Jackson, D def. George Brown, R.
West Virginia: Sen. Robert Byrd, D reelected without opposition.
Wisconsin: Sen. William Proxmire, D def. Stanley York, R.
Wyoming: Malcolm Wallop, R def. Gale W. McGee, D. (R+1)

Senate composition before election: 61 D, 37 R, 1 Ind. Democrat, 1 Conservative
Senate composition after election: 60 D, 39 R, 1 Ind. Democrat

Senate Majority Leader: Robert Byrd (D-WV)
Senate Majority Whip: Alan Cranston (D-CA)
Senate Minority Leader: Howard Baker (R-TN)
Senate Minority Whip: Ted Stevens (R-AK)

United States House of Representatives Elections, 1976
House composition before election: 291 D, 144 R
House composition after election: 290 D, 145 R (R+1)

Speaker of the House: Tip O’Neill (D-MA)
House Majority Leader: Richard Bolling (D-MO)
House Majority Whip: John Brademas (D-IN)
House Minority Leader: John Rhodes (R-AZ)
House Minority Whip: Robert Michel (R-IL)

United States Gubernatorial Elecitons, 1975
Kentucky: Gov. Julian Carroll, D def. Bob Gable, R.
Louisiana: Gov. Edwin Edwards, D def. Robert G. Jones, D.
Mississippi: Cliff Finch, D def. Gil Carmichael, R.

Governors before election: 36 D, 13 R
Governors after election: 36 D, 13 R

United States Gubernatorial Elections, 1976
Arkansas: Gov. David Pryor, D def. Leon Griffith, R.
Delaware: Pierre S. du Pont IV, R def. Gov. Sherman W. Tribbitt, D. (R+1)
Illinois: James R. Thompson, R def. Michael Howlett, D. (R+1)
Indiana: Gov. Otis Bowen, R def. Larry Conrad, D.
Missouri: Joseph P. Teasdale, D def. Gov. Kit Bond, R. (D+1)
Montana: Gov. Thomas Lee Judge, D def. Robert Woodahl, R.
New Hampshire: Gov. Meldrim Thomson, Jr, R def. Harry Spanos, D.
North Carolina: Jim Hunt, D def. David Flaherty, R. (D+1)
North Dakota: Arthur A. Link, D def. Richard Elkin, R.
Rhode Island: John Garrahy, D def. James Taft, R.
Utah: Scott M. Matheson, D def. Vernon Romney, R.
Vermont: Richard Snelling, R def. Stella Hackel, D. (R+1)
Washington: Dixy Lee Ray, D def. John Spellman, R. (D+1)
West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller, D def. Cecil Underwood, R. (D+1)

Governors before election: 36 D, 13 R
Governors after election: 37 D, 12 R

Cabinet of President Nelson Rockefeller
President: Nelson Rockefeller (1975- )
Vice President: Bob Dole (1975- )
Secretary of State: George H.W. Bush (1975- )
Secretary of Treasury: William E. Simon (1974- )
Secretary of Defense: Bill Clements (1975- )
Attorney General: Edward H. Levi (1975- )
Secretary of the Interior: Thomas S. Kleppe (1975- )
Secretary of Agriculture: John Albert Knebel (1976- )
Secretary of Commerce: Elliot Richardson (1975- )
Secretary of Labor: William Usery Jr. (1976- )
Secretary of Health, Education, and Welfare: George W. Romney (1977- )
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Carla Anderson Hills (1975- )
Secretary of Transportation: William Thaddeus Coleman Jr. (1975- )
White House Chief of Staff: George Hinman (1975- )
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Russell Train (1974- )
Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Dick Cheney (1977- )
U.S. Trade Ambassador: Frederick B. Dent (1975- )
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations: William Scranton (1976- )

I'm going to assume Rocky won between 16 to 21% of African Americans against Carter in this TL ?

 

[Sceonn]

snip

Really, quoting a whole chapter? Please have mercy on us smartphone users.

 

[49ersFootball]

DAMN shame about Bush, Jr., dying like that

 

[49ersFootball]

Dole is a white supremacist ?