September 1939: has Germany lost the war already?

[Michele]

Im not even sure the brits wont outright attack France - see OTL. I just mean that attacking this France would be much more risky than attacking Vichy France - and in either case a huge gain to Germany. And I have my doubts of London's ability to sucessfully blocade France and most of the European continent including some other neutral countries.

Isn't that exactly what they did in WWII? Had the Swedes, say, ordered a few million tons of South American crude oil, rest assured the Royal Navy would have had something to say about that. And after the first years of war, the tankers would not have even left South America; remember the Navicert system.

And France is not Norway or the Netherland. Poking France is a tad more dangerous than what the brits get away with in WWI.

Sure. Note that this "good" peace includes the loss of Alsace-Lorraine, German occupation of what is "strictly necessary" for the war against Britain (doh, in OTL that's what they claimed to have occupied in Northern France), and German military forces in French seaports and air bases. IOW, 90% of the French will hate this in their guts. If you're ready to look at the political/diplomatic situation for Germany, look at it from the POV of the internal French situation too.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

As for OP: yes.
The historical German diceroll at Battle of France was far from certain to succeed, and even then merely delayed the inevitable.

Very much this. The invasion of France was a risky maneuver that could have gone badly for the Germans had the Allied leaders realized what was going on (or got their shit together when they realised it OTL, instead of losing precious time while arguing and bickering).

 

[Tibi088]

Isn't that exactly what they did in WWII? Had the Swedes, say, ordered a few million tons of South American crude oil, rest assured the Royal Navy would have had something to say about that. And after the frist years of war, the tankers would not have even left South America; remember the Navicert system.



Sure. Note that this "good" peace includes the loss of Alsace-Lorraine, German occupation of what is "strictly necessary" for the war against Britain (doh, in OTL that's what they claimed to have occupied in Northern France), and German military forces in French seaports and air bases. IOW, 90% of the French will hate this in their guts. If you're ready to look at the political/diplomatic situation for Germany, look at it from the POV of the internal French situation too.

Of course the french would hate it. But its much better than OTL. The germans also wont have to face a french resistance throughout the country. And the frech also wont like what the brits are doing. I think the germans will be much better off this way. They will need a lot less manpower for France and britain has to make some much tougher decisions than OTL. It will also drive a huge vedge between the british and the french.