AHC: Italy conquered/liberated by Soviet, not western forces

[raharris1973]

What it says on the tin.

In WWII of course.

Not easy, but if the Soviets are the ones liberating as far into Italy as Venice, Milan, Ravenna, Torino, that is good enough

 

[Ricardolindo]

Hard but easier than your scenario with such happening to France. Since the Soviets reached Austria in our timeline, maybe they could have liberated parts of Northeastern Italy.

 

[Borealian]

A failed d-day, the allied invasion of europe is delayed

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

The Western Allies were in Italy by 1943 while the Soviets were still in Central/Eastern Ukraine. The Western Allies will not give up Italy for the Soviets. And I hardly doubt the Germans are in a position to drive the allies out of Italy. Liberation of a part of Nazi Ruled Italy will not change much as the region would be handed over to the Italian government.

 

[Tehshudge]

So, one thing that needs to change is that the Allied strategy needs to involve the invasion of France before the invasion of Italy. This could lead to a number of interesting things.

So let's say that in Fall 1943 Normandy is selected as the first target for amphibious invasion. The invasion process goes about as well as OTL (the Allies have less experience with amphibious assaults, but the Axis has less experience defending against them, and so on).

OTL, when the invasion of Italy happened, it diverted a lot of German attention from the Eastern Front (pretty much ending the Kursk operation in an instant). An invasion of the Normandy region would likely scare the Germans even more due to increased proximity to Germany itself. As a result, the Soviets have a slightly better several months immediately after this invasion than they did OTL.

As Winter comes to an end in 1944, the Germans launch an offensive in the Ardennes region, hoping to push the Allied forces back and relieve the growing threat against Germany itself. Allied command puts significant resources into utterly crushing this offensive, but at the cost of delaying the invasion of Italy (planned for June 1944) by an additional couple of months. Eventually, Allied planning changes entirely - the strategy simply becomes take Germany out of the war.

Changes to the post-war situation:

- There is no West or East Germany. There is a unified Germany under Allied control exclusively.
- Italy is under control of left-wing partisans answering to the Soviet Union. Greece is in a similar situation.

Eventually, when Tito starts to shift away from Moscow, he has allies in Italy and Greece ready to back him in this maneuver. At this point, changes to the Cold War are so stark that history just sort of butterflies away from there.

 

[mianfei]

So, one thing that needs to change is that the Allied strategy needs to involve the invasion of France before the invasion of Italy. This could lead to a number of interesting things.

So let's say that in Fall 1943 Normandy is selected as the first target for amphibious invasion. The invasion process goes about as well as OTL (the Allies have less experience with amphibious assaults, but the Axis has less experience defending against them, and so on).

OTL, when the invasion of Italy happened, it diverted a lot of German attention from the Eastern Front (pretty much ending the Kursk operation in an instant). An invasion of the Normandy region would likely scare the Germans even more due to increased proximity to Germany itself. As a result, the Soviets have a slightly better several months immediately after this invasion than they did OTL.

As Winter comes to an end in 1944, the Germans launch an offensive in the Ardennes region, hoping to push the Allied forces back and relieve the growing threat against Germany itself. Allied command puts significant resources into utterly crushing this offensive, but at the cost of delaying the invasion of Italy (planned for June 1944) by an additional couple of months. Eventually, Allied planning changes entirely - the strategy simply becomes take Germany out of the war.

Changes to the post-war situation:

- There is no West or East Germany. There is a unified Germany under Allied control exclusively.
- Italy is under control of left-wing partisans answering to the Soviet Union. Greece is in a similar situation.

Eventually, when Tito starts to shift away from Moscow, he has allies in Italy and Greece ready to back him in this maneuver. At this point, changes to the Cold War are so stark that history just sort of butterflies away from there.

Such a situation makes sense, but would probably have been worse for the USSR than the actual result of the war. Italy would have had much more difficulty industrialising than even Stalinist East Germany, and has even fewer natural resources.

In your scenario, would Austria be liberated by Soviet or Western forces, or even partitioned into capitalist/social democratic “West Austria” and Stalinist “East Austria”?

 

[Tehshudge]

Not entirely sure. However, I think Allied control would be more likely, as the Red Army couldn't rely on partisans to help consolidate control as they did with Yugoslavia OTL and Italy TTL.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

A failed d-day, the allied invasion of europe is delayed

Um... the Wallies are in Italy well before D-Day. Indeed, would argue an earlier successful D-Day (Sledgehammer) in 42-43, with the US having diplomatically run circles around the British and their silly idea of "nibbling away" and "softunderbelly" and going right for the throat rather than Torch. A heavier blood price in and stronger presence in North Europe; with the Wallies slogging through occupied France and the Low Counteries and deep into German while the British content themselves with knocking the Italians out of Libya before re-directing resources to the mainland (or maybe a Greek operation) and believing they can convince Southern Europe to defect once the Reich is on it's knees. This is before the full negotiations for the splitting of Europe, and if the West plays harder ball on Germany Stalin could order a greater focus to sweep up the South out of spite and get into Italy by land before the Wallies get a strong presence there

 

[Evil Crusader]

Eventually, when Tito starts to shift away from Moscow, he has allies in Italy and Greece ready to back him in this maneuver. At this point, changes to the Cold War are so stark that history just sort of butterflies away from there.

Italian communists are very close to Moscow, especially TTL, and they have basically no reason to side with Tito.

 

[Khanzeer]

Do the Soviet have the logistics to get that far in 1945 ?
Maybe a partition of Italy? Northern states are communist but Rome and southern states are western allies

 

[raharris1973]

So, one thing that needs to change is that the Allied strategy needs to involve the invasion of France before the invasion of Italy. This could lead to a number of interesting things.

So let's say that in Fall 1943 Normandy is selected as the first target for amphibious invasion. The invasion process goes about as well as OTL (the Allies have less experience with amphibious assaults, but the Axis has less experience defending against them, and so on).

OTL, when the invasion of Italy happened, it diverted a lot of German attention from the Eastern Front (pretty much ending the Kursk operation in an instant). An invasion of the Normandy region would likely scare the Germans even more due to increased proximity to Germany itself. As a result, the Soviets have a slightly better several months immediately after this invasion than they did OTL.

As Winter comes to an end in 1944, the Germans launch an offensive in the Ardennes region, hoping to push the Allied forces back and relieve the growing threat against Germany itself. Allied command puts significant resources into utterly crushing this offensive, but at the cost of delaying the invasion of Italy (planned for June 1944) by an additional couple of months. Eventually, Allied planning changes entirely - the strategy simply becomes take Germany out of the war.

Changes to the post-war situation:

- There is no West or East Germany. There is a unified Germany under Allied control exclusively.
- Italy is under control of left-wing partisans answering to the Soviet Union. Greece is in a similar situation.

Eventually, when Tito starts to shift away from Moscow, he has allies in Italy and Greece ready to back him in this maneuver. At this point, changes to the Cold War are so stark that history just sort of butterflies away from there.

So I am taking it that the western allied invasion of Italy is postponed indefinitely until the war is ended?

But would there have even been a big partisan movement in Italy without the Italian surrender, western invasion, and the Italian Social Republic becoming a mere puppet for hated German occupiers? I think the Italian partisans before September 1943 were non-existent to minuscule in OTL. In this ATL, strained as Fascist Italy may be economically, and smacked by airpower, it's apparatus of internal control should be fairly intact until actual enemy invasion.

 

[lukedalton]

So I am taking it that the western allied invasion of Italy is postponed indefinitely until the war is ended?

But would there have even been a big partisan movement in Italy without the Italian surrender, western invasion, and the Italian Social Republic becoming a mere puppet for hated German occupiers? I think the Italian partisans before September 1943 were non-existent to minuscule in OTL. In this ATL, strained as Fascist Italy may be economically, and smacked by airpower, it's apparatus of internal control should be fairly intact until actual enemy invasion.

No, without the invasion of Italy and the collapse of the fascist goverment and the army, with all the weapons lost and the soldiers deserting to return homoe, there will be no big partisan group around to support anyone.
Plus in case Tito done as OTL and Italy is under PCI control (and this mean Togliatti)...well there will be very few friends in the penisula for him and it's more probable that Italy will join any communist invasion of Jugoslavia