While I would say that in the Ottoman Empire, the Young Turks have really set this avalanche of nationalist violence in motion already before the PoD,

I agree, the avalanche had started well before. But the immediate postwar years (and their aftermath) are when ethnonational consciouness cristallyzed as the defining issue of regional politics for the following decades (until the religious element came back to interplay with that, making everything even worse; still, I'd argue that, even when often couched in communal-sectarian concerns, ethnonationalism tends to trump religion in most cases, as the Kurdish question amply shows).
The brutality of the CUP would not have sufficed to do that without the subsequent imperial cynicism of France and Britain (which is truly astonishing even by the standards of High Imperialism). The flimsiness of alleged pretexts under which France attacked the Arab Kingdom of Syria (technically representing a wartime ally) and the casual indifference with which the British sacrificed it is fairly shocking, and certainly it shocked the Arab public opinion massively.
(As an almost unrelated but interesting bit of trivia, I actually learned yesterday that the National Syrian Congress did indeed debate the possibility of female suffrage in 1919-20. The proposal was shelved for obvious reasons, such as the looming French invasion. Still, that is well over a generation before their French would-be "civilisers" would actually conced female suffrage).
 
@Falecius
I couldn't agree more on British and French imperialist mess-up in the Middle East.
Whether another Player in the field in the shape of the UoE, whose policies are probably centered on Armenians and Oil, too, will improve things is doubtful, though...
 
@Falecius
I couldn't agree more on British and French imperialist mess-up in the Middle East.
Whether another Player in the field in the shape of the UoE, whose policies are probably centered on Armenians and Oil, too, will improve things is doubtful, though...

They might offer some margin to Faysal at *Versailles, if they feel idealistic enough.
At this point in time, Rashid Rida was still quite a modernist, "liberal" thinker who accepted a liberal, secular state as a plausible way forward (he was among those who favored women's suffrage in the SNC)- it was only the twin delusion of the French invasion and the abolition of the Caliphate that led him onto an increasingly "Islamic" path out of disillusion with the Western values, whose hypocrisy had shown blatantly after the San Remo conference, the battle of Maysalun and the expulsion of Faysal from Syria.
If Rida can steer Faysal and the Congress to adopt a more progressive outlook (female suffrage, equality before law regardless of religion, possibly land reform, though the latter would have to be very moderate) Moscow might see an independent, civil Syrian constitutional monarchy as a better regional partner than the "mandates" of OTL. They could team with the Americans on the topi and force the British to honor their promises to the Arab leadership.
The price to pay is a grudge from France, and I am not sure that anyone would want to pay that (certainly the US and Britain were not IOTL).
OTOH, strategic Russian priorities lie elsewhere, so that they may, for instance, let France do whatever she wants in the Levant in return for them keeping shut about the border with Poland.
 
The UoE delegation at ITTL Versailles, if like the OTL group that negotiated B-L, will be composed by a mix of pragmatist, stubborn idealist and people that wonder why they are here and while on the winner wagon they will have to choose what battle they will need to fight as they not only lack the influence capacity of the old Russian Empire but have also problems holding part of their own old territory (Lithuania, Finland, Poland and the Caucasus) part of their best territory in ruin and a large zone that hold a lot of interest for their strategic and economic objective.
Plus there are the Czech and the Romanian, they are allies and there is a strong bond with them, but taking openly their side mean also close other door and possibly coming in conflict with the supporter of Jugoslavia and Poland.

France will be probably their best ally in Europe as they have both the desire to keep Germany down and ironically, not being alone as OTL mean a slightly more relaxed France that can give some little concession (not very much, but whoever lead the delegation will be less panicky towards the future if the Anglo-American refuse to sign an alliance agreement as they can possibly rely on the UoE).

Taking as example the Kingdom of Syria, well going from wikipedia the French offered an agreement that will keep the kingdom alive and without foreign troops (better remember that at the moment Faisail control just a little part of the nominal kingdom territory) but under French influence, with Paris sending military and economic adviser and basically keeping the foreign policy under French umbrella...and this agreement for the time was very good but Faisail own rethoric and his more hardliner supporter refused it and the Anglo-French quickly defeated the kingdom troops and the rest is history. The UoE presence can mediate some agreement even if better remember that this will also mean spend political currency for Moscow, at least in the immediate...but two are needed for coming to an agreement and the big five are the superpower of the time and they can't allow themself to be sent home by a group of ragtag rebels; sure they can come to an agreement with the locals that's much better than anything before the war as they are spent due to the war but as OTL they can still put down colonial rebellion if they want with relative ease.
 
Twenty-Seven: Avksentiev's Candidacy (August 1918)
Moscow: Trud, August 16th, 1918, p. 2:

NIKOLAY AVKSENTIEV FOR PRESIDENT!

Nikolay Avksentiev, who served as Speaker for the Socialist Revolutionary Party in the Constituent Assembly, has announced his willingness to compete against People’s Supreme Commissioner Boris Kamkov in the race for the position of their party’s Federal Presidential candidate in the following speech which he gave before thousands of supporters in his home town of Penza:

“My dear comrades! I am honored by your trust and support, and I shall hereby follow your suggestion and humbly declare my intention to stand as our proud party’s candidate for the highest office in our wonderful young republic! You know that I am seeking neither glory nor gain, and that my sole intention is to serve this great new Union just like you, your brothers, sons, and husbands are serving it right now, undaunted by the risk to their lives. I believe that, in the function which I have filled for an entire year, I have shown the qualities required for this immense task: I have worked tirelessly in the formulation of a solid constitution and built alliances across party lines, and I shall continue to integrate yet more groups [1] and gather the best men and women [2] for the service of our Union.

Let no-one misunderstand my candidacy as an expression of criticism directed against Comrade Kamkov! I feel deep admiration for the colossal work he has achieved in safeguarding our Revolution, setting our young republic safely on the rails towards peace, justice and well-being, and steering our Motherland from its darkest moments to the doorstep of an equitable and just peace.

But I believe the immediate future poses yet more serious challenges to us, and I am convinced they must be addressed in new ways. Our Marxist coalition partners are forging alliances, day and night, with their political next-of-kin in every country of the world, and they are using the influence which positions in the Commission offer to them to foster their agenda and strengthen Marxist revolutionaries worldwide. We are not mounting a very convincing answer to this – neither are we consistently coming to the aid of our brethren beyond the Union’s borders, nor are we undertaking serious attempts to limit party-political instrumentalisation of the government.

I believe this has to change. The toilers of the Bulgarian countryside are rising against their militarist government, and their brethren in uniform who are sick of dying for nationalist ambitions have begun to come to their aid, and our comrades [3] stand prepared to take over the reigns of government and end their nation’s shameful participation in the aggression of the Central Powers. We must lend them our unwavering support, without hesitation [4], for else their Revolution might be drowned in the blood of their workers and soldiers. And Bulgaria is just one example. The Marxists look down on the Eastern half of our continent and call it underdeveloped and bemoan the absence of an industrial proletariat which could rise and carry their banner. We must not let ourselves be infected by this arrogant outlook, for the toilers of Europe’s East are looking to us for inspiration and guidance in their quest to build new, democratic and socialist nations in which the toilers of the countryside and the town can live together in dignity and justice, enjoying the full fruits of their labour and partaking in their equal and unrestricted political, cultural and social rights.

On the other hand, we must also draw a clear line as to how far even members of an elected government are allowed to pursue the particularist agenda of a single party, so that they may not bring harm to the general well-being and the interests of the entire Union. One such boundary is the building of a new Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the choosing of our future diplomats. We must be very clear about the opportunities and challenges posed to our Union in the negotiations brought about by the impending end of the war and the construction of a new global order of peace. Ensuring a fair and lasting settlement and securing the safety of our Revolution, our Republic and our Union requires prudence and experience. We must not affront our allies beyond necessity with an ideological agenda of the sort which Leon Trotsky, who looks to be the most promising candidate among the field of IRSDLP(u) contenders, wishes to pursue [5]. But we must also not sell ourselves cheaply by acting with naivety, like Julius Martov, the perennial candidate of the idealists, would have us do. I promise to deliver to all the nations of our Union the best possible deal, earned through hard but fair and principled but competent bargaining.

This requires us not to relent now that we have driven the Germans back to Narva in the North [6], and our Romanian allies have broken through at Galaţi [7]. In the West our allies have achieved a formidable victory together at Villers [8], and in Greece our five allied armies have weakened the Bulgarian tsar’s forces so much that his people have gained the opportunity to throw off his yoke. Even as far as the Bosphorus, Mehmet Talaat has stepped back and convinced the other pashas, whose hands are red with the blood of innocent women and children, to do the same, making it possible for the new sultan [9] to ask for an honorable peace [10], which he will undoubtedly do before this month ends. The end of this horrible carnage, in which our peoples have lost millions of human lives - young men who will not be able to stride with us towards the better future whose door has opened wide for us now - is in sight at last! We must not throw away our and their sacrifices now [11]. We must not relent now, for our brothers and sisters in Minsk and Riga and in Wilno and Warsaw are still awaiting the removal of the German yoke, and although we are and shall always remain the party of peace, this peace will come all the more quickly if we continue to pursue and firmly expel those who have murdered, plundered and raped our Motherland instead of leaving this task to others and abandoning half our continent to the sufferings of chaos and anarchy.

When external peace is achieved – and I have not the slightest doubt that it shall be achieved very soon if we only remain firm – our Union must find its internal peace, too, and I promise that my presidential agenda will be one of peaceful coexistence and balance. The unfortunate events in Finland have taught us not to entrust the Union to a reckless adventurer like Trotsky. Instead, we need more consensual and stable agreements like the Concordance which Tapa Tchermoev and I have submitted to the Constituent Assembly and to the popular council of the nascent Mountainous Federative Republic of the Northern Caucasus [12] for ratification.

The chances for such a inner peace have never been better than they are now, and we could not stand proud before our children and grandchildren if we were to waste this opportunity. The Cossacks of the Don have deposed Alexey Kaledin and appear determined to take up their proud roles in the construction of a free Ukrainian Federative Republic now – so when the worst collaborators of Markov and the oppressive German regime have been apprehended, we must end the Special Provisions immediately. I solemnly swear, should the peoples of our Union elect me as their president, to dissolve the VeCheKa within the first six months of my term in office.

Harmony must return to our towns and villages - our factories and homes. Therefore, whatever composition the new Union Council and the new Duma shall be, I promise to all of you that I shall not sign any law which reverts even a single letter of the Reform Acts with which the toilers of the countryside have received the land which is rightfully theirs, and which have made the former tenants of the cities the kings of their own castles. To the liberals who demand compensation, I have to say that there is not a single ruble in our coffers for such an undertaking. The war has left us with nothing, and the task of reconstruction shall demand from us every possible resource – promising compensation is irresponsible, I assure you, and I will not support it. But neither should we rock the boat even more now, like Trotsky and others from the left wing of the Social Democrats, who attempt to pressure our soviets into socializing the factories and workshops as well. Over the next few years, we must dedicate all our efforts to rebuilding the strength of our commonwealth. We must be equal to the task of employing all its productive forces, of undertaking the unprecedented effort of educating our entire populace and endowing our children with the best possible preparation, of rooting out urban and rural famine, poverty and epidemic diseases.

If this is the socialism you have struggled for in this Revolution, then I am your candidate to build it up in our hopeful and glorious Union. Thank you for your trust!”


[1] This is code for the electoral alliance with the Popular Socialist Labour Party (Trudoviks) and with several smaller centrist and centre-left parties in other federative republics which he has prepared. Avksentiev has risen to the position of the leader of the right wing of the SRs, and as such, he is attempting to reach out well into what used to be the Centre of Russia’s political spectrum, while Boris Kamkov (can we call him the “incumbent” although the position is not identical in name and competencies?) is going to be the candidate of the SR’s left wing. It comes as no surprise that Avksentiev’s candidacy is portrayed favourably in “Trud”, the newspaper edited by Vadim Rudnev, who is also from the SR’s right wing.

[2] For what it’s worth, in a few days, Alexander Kerensky is going to declare himself for Avksentiev and will be offered the position of foreign minister in Avxentiev’s shadow cabinet.

[3] The BANU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulgarian_Agrarian_National_Union

[4] The UoE is still part of the Five Nation Army whose latest attacks on the Thracian front have caused mutinies on the Bulgarian side more than a month ahead of OTL’s schedule, which also means an earlier uprising of agrarian-affiliated rebels.

[5] We shall find out in a few updates whether this is an adequate prediction or rather simply scare-mongering aimed at winning over centrist votes.

[6] This was nothing to brag about. Given Hutier’s hopeless position, the fact that he was able to extract himself with more or less the entire Eighth Army unscathed after the preliminary armistice had run out does not attest to UoE military prowess at all – it was the best case Hutier could have hoped for given the circumstances.

[7] I have decided to retcon and swap the mutinies. In Italy, it would have been Czech regiments which mutinied. The Slovenes are mutinying in Romania instead now. I can’t find any sources stating that there were any Slovenian regiments deployed to Romania IOTL, but given the time which has passed since the PoD ITTL, I will handwave them into being there by virtue of the butterfly effect, unless someone argues that there is some serious implausibility in this.

[8] TTL’s equivalent to the Battle of Hamel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hamel , in which the Australians, the British and the US conducted a concerted attack using all the different branches of the Entente military. It was a sort of experiment in coordinated air, tank, gas and directed artillery overkill, which overwhelmed relatively weak German fortifications and earned the Entente territorial gains of more than ten miles and many prisoners with far fewer losses of their own. See this video for illustration:

As a consequence, the coal fields of Béthune are back in Entente hands.

[9] Mehmet V has died on schedule, and Mehmet VI took his place a little over a month ago.

[10] I don’t think so.

[11] Oh yes, Avksentiev is a defencist through and through and has been long before peace talks with the Germans failed.

[12] The latest new autonomous member of the UoE, and the first one which is predominantly Muslim.
 
So what is the UoE going to be? An USA like federation? Or more like current day Germany? Or more like the EU, a collaboration?
Its constitution envisions it more like the US, although the different languages, territorial armies etc. give it characteristics more akin to the EU, too. It's a beast the likes of which we haven't seen yet.

Its presidential elections specifically are modelled after the US (as the Trudoviks have already criticised, calling it a "mockery of America": each Federative Republic sends electors into an electoral College after its own rules (in Russia and Ukraine in FPTP on oblast- resp, okrug-level), and the two biggest Parties are currently developing a selection which May or may not correspond much in the end with the Primary system.
 

Regarding the AKoS, to be fair we don't still even know if it gets proclaimed actually.
The facts on the ground in the Levant are different, with more British presence IIRC, but this also means a better bargaining position for Faysal facing the French and their Lebanese Christian allies.
I think that the best and most that the Syrian leadership can hope for from the UoE if that they join the US in pressuring the French into offering Faysal a deal that he can accept.. what was on offer IOTL appeared to him and his advisors (who were more radical than he was) as protectorate in all but name, and that was probably a correct perception for the most part, as the subsequent French actions appear to show.
If two large powers at alt-Versailles are at least somewhat sympathetic (even though largely unconcerned) in addition to Britain, Faysal might not feel the need to embrace the more nationalist wing of his base of support, and would be able to be more flexible in negotiations with French. If someone who is not Gouraud is sent to Syria it would also help immensely (I guess that asking to have Sarrail there from the start is too much).
This said, on further reflection I think that the UoE is not likely to spend much political capital just to make Faysal, who is regarded as a British ally after all, a favor: the AKoS might be slightly more progressive ITTL, but it would still be a bourgeois constitutional monarchy (Faysal himself was hardly any sort of social revolutionary), hard to describe it as a Socialist fellow traveler by any stretch of imagination. While the overall configuration ITTL might give Faysal a chance he never truly had IOTL, his options are still very limited, as you noted.
 
While my own politics tend to be more to the left than this, it really sounds a very reasonable program overall. A lot of rhetoric of course, but that's only to be expected.

So, is Bulgaria going to fold now, or revolution will engulf it before the goverment is able to properly surrender?
 
Regarding the AKoS, to be fair we don't still even know if it gets proclaimed actually.
The facts on the ground in the Levant are different, with more British presence IIRC, but this also means a better bargaining position for Faysal facing the French and their Lebanese Christian allies.
I think that the best and most that the Syrian leadership can hope for from the UoE if that they join the US in pressuring the French into offering Faysal a deal that he can accept.. what was on offer IOTL appeared to him and his advisors (who were more radical than he was) as protectorate in all but name, and that was probably a correct perception for the most part, as the subsequent French actions appear to show.
If two large powers at alt-Versailles are at least somewhat sympathetic (even though largely unconcerned) in addition to Britain, Faysal might not feel the need to embrace the more nationalist wing of his base of support, and would be able to be more flexible in negotiations with French. If someone who is not Gouraud is sent to Syria it would also help immensely (I guess that asking to have Sarrail there from the start is too much).
This said, on further reflection I think that the UoE is not likely to spend much political capital just to make Faysal, who is regarded as a British ally after all, a favor: the AKoS might be slightly more progressive ITTL, but it would still be a bourgeois constitutional monarchy (Faysal himself was hardly any sort of social revolutionary), hard to describe it as a Socialist fellow traveler by any stretch of imagination. While the overall configuration ITTL might give Faysal a chance he never truly had IOTL, his options are still very limited, as you noted.

Sure that's a protectorare in practice, the problem is that we are talking of a Great Power in the immediate WWI postwar and this mean that what offered to Faysal was a very good deal for the time, there is no way that they (the great power of the time and i include the UoE in that) will give Syria real independence, not after all the blood spilled and not after they control the bulk of future Syria even because France is one of the big guys and cannot be 'frightned' by some 'local yokel'
 
Sure that's a protectorare in practice, the problem is that we are talking of a Great Power in the immediate WWI postwar and this mean that what offered to Faysal was a very good deal for the time, there is no way that they (the great power of the time and i include the UoE in that) will give Syria real independence, not after all the blood spilled and not after they control the bulk of future Syria even because France is one of the big guys and cannot be 'frightned' by some 'local yokel'
Of course France will want to assert her "rights". Faysal himself appears to have understood that, but he really had no choice IOTL. ITTL, while integral independence is not happening, he may have a better bargaining position leading to a mutually acceptable agreement with the French. It would still favor the French in a way that rubs Syrian nationalists the wrong way, but perhaps a more compromising French approach can be found that allows them to save face? Chances are still slim.
 
Of course France will want to assert her "rights". Faysal himself appears to have understood that, but he really had no choice IOTL. ITTL, while integral independence is not happening, he may have a better bargaining position leading to a mutually acceptable agreement with the French. It would still favor the French in a way that rubs Syrian nationalists the wrong way, but perhaps a more compromising French approach can be found that allows them to save face? Chances are still slim.

From the little that i read, the real problem is that France, can concede something more than OTL if convinced (possible if some little behind the scene pressure is applied...but it will cost some polital currency for the Uoe), but hardly anything short of independence will satisfy Faysal side even if the king accept the deal due to a better understament of the general situation and the correlation of force. Frankly more than Paris, it's the local nationalist that need to be convinced that for now this type of deal is the better possible and there is the need to wait
 
From the little that i read, the real problem is that France, can concede something more than OTL if convinced (possible if some little behind the scene pressure is applied...but it will cost some polital currency for the Uoe), but hardly anything short of independence will satisfy Faysal side even if the king accept the deal due to a better understament of the general situation and the correlation of force. Frankly more than Paris, it's the local nationalist that need to be convinced that for now this type of deal is the better possible and there is the need to wait

Well, the British wartime promises did not ease the matter. (The obvious conclusion the Syrian nationalists drew was that these promises were made in utter bad faith, which had very lasting consequences... one could easily argue that the region still suffers them, harshly).
However, part of the radicalization of Faysal's supporters occurred during the postwar period, partly because the Powers dithered about the ultimate fate of the region, leading to deteriorating trust.
So it may be avoidable if both sides are able to talk each other frankly and earlier, which UoE diplomacy might facilitate a little bit by simply existing.
Still, there's a gap between what the French were prepared to "concede" and the Syrians prepared to accept; the disparity of power remains.
 
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Does this mean that they've reached any sort of reformists in that area, or not?
If you mean, are there Muslims in this new federative republic in the Caucasus who follow the „new method“ / Jadidism in their teaching and/or who embrace reasoning and do not view modernization necessarily as a threat to Islam, then yes, there are Jadidists (practitioniers) in the North Caucasus, especially in larger towns like Vladikawkaz, which has just been renamed Dzaudzhikau, or Petrovsk-Port, where there are discussions about renaming it into Anzhi-Qala, alongside others who cling to more traditional views and would be labelled Qadimists accordingly. Both traditionalists and reformers in the Northern Caucasus operate to a great degree within the framework of Sufi brotherhoods dominant in the region. One of the leading Jadidists of the region is Sayf Bashlarov, who IOTL died in 1919 and probably will ITTL, too.

If you mean political reformers with a vision of a political Islam which guides the nations once colonized by the Russians on their own (and probably common/allied) independent path into modernity, then no, not so much. The new federative republic’s prime minister, Tchermoeff, is a wealthy oil magnate who has married a Persian princess. The entire process of unifying the various ethnic groups (with wildly different languages, and among them Christian Ossetians along with all flavours of Muslims among the Chechen, Ingush, Kabardian, Balkar-Qabarchay, Aghul, Kumyk, Avar etc. groups) into a single federative republic in relatively short time has been achieved at the cost of superficiality; it’s an alliance forged among those who already have authority. IOTL, something similar occurred in reaction to the October Revolution, as an attempt to protect the region’s social, political, cultural and economic structures against Bolshevism. ITTL, the process is in reaction to the Turanist-reformist rebellions in various other parts of Southern Russia, trying to prevent the sparks from igniting the powder keg in their part of the Caucasus, a goal shared by Moscow, which is why Moscow has helped a lot in the forging of this alliance, even though it has absolutely nothing to do with socialism and the revolution. This is dirty realpolitik. Thus, expect the parliament (which is called differently in the many languages which enjoy equal status in the new Federative Republic) to feature many clan elders from the countryside, in carefully balanced proportions between the ethnic groups, and from the urban constituencies not necessarily predominantly ideologically aligned politicians (although some of these may be part of the mix, too), but also more oligarchs of Tchermoeff’s ilk.

The establishment of this Mountainous Republic of the Northern Caucasus will be ratified by the CA in Moscow, but it is going to catalyze an already emergent discussion about how to deal with Southern Russia and send it into overdrive.

Even among followers of cold-blooded realpolitik, it is not at all uncontroversial, primarily because of the Chechen oil reserves which, if the region had stayed within the Russian Federative Republic and its groups merely gained some form of cultural autonomy, would have remained public property administered by a commission installed and overseen by the All-Russian Congress of Soviets. Now, with the Mountainous Republic being a separate federal subject, it passes into their sphere of legislation (where the nationalization shall be either outright reverted, or at least tweaked in such ways that people like Tchermoeff can continue to profit from it. The former strategy (cultural autonomy) had been tried at first by Petrograd/Moscow, but it failed to bring around enough local support to really safely stem the rising tide of pan-Islamic revolt, which is why federalization has been adopted as a compromise strategy to cut Moscow’s losses in the region and gain another proxy who can help contain more unruly groups.

Among red-blooded socialists, the debate has finally raised the awareness about “Southern problems” above a level of colonialist-stereotyped reaction, and this is to a great extent thanks to the eloquent speeches and energetic opposition to the details of this Concordance which has been mounted by Mirsaid Sultan-Galiev and Mullanur Waxitov. Rejecting many political Jadidist reformers’ and revolutionaries’ close ties with Ottoman policies for a Greater Turan from a socialist perspective, but also disillusioned with the realpolitik of the moderate socialists and the disregard for anti-colonial perspectives espoused by both Trotsky for the biggest SD faction, Bukharin for the remaining ultra-left Bolsheviks, and frequently chauvinistic “moderate” leaders of labour unions alike, Sultan-Galiev and Waxitov are developing their own brand of anti-colonial socialism. Their stronghold is Kazan, where local soviets are firmly in the hands of staunchly socialist Muslim workers, and while Waxitov is holding his speeches as a deputy of these soviets in the Supreme Soviet, Sultan-Galiev does so in the CA in Moscow. Both are hammering out a genuinely socialist list of political demands for how to deal with the “Southern problem”, and while I may expound this in more detail in a later update (I’m not sure yet), what follows from it in this concrete context is that they vehemently reject to recognize any treaty negotiated between Moscow, which had only its geostrategic interests at mind, and oligarchic local elites, demanding the development of revolutionary soviets of the colonized people, their alliance, and their self-confident and defiant confrontation with the European nations at eye level, with all options on the table – from independence and the formation of an alliance with other liberating ex-colonized peoples to federation. Only a handful of SDs are supportive of this view, while on the left wing of the SRs, there is somewhat more solidarity (but only there: the right wing of the SRs not only harbours, well, let’s call it attachments to Russia not being “mutilated” too much, but it also sees itself as the representation of the “progressive elements” among the agriculturalist settlers in Central Asia, too, and therefore rejects an open-ended negotiation which could lead to their expulsion from a soon-independent Muslim Tatarstan…).

I think that the best and most that the Syrian leadership can hope for from the UoE if that they join the US in pressuring the French into offering Faysal a deal that he can accept.. what was on offer IOTL appeared to him and his advisors (who were more radical than he was) as protectorate in all but name, and that was probably a correct perception for the most part, as the subsequent French actions appear to show.
If two large powers at alt-Versailles are at least somewhat sympathetic (even though largely unconcerned) in addition to Britain, Faysal might not feel the need to embrace the more nationalist wing of his base of support, and would be able to be more flexible in negotiations with French. If someone who is not Gouraud is sent to Syria it would also help immensely (I guess that asking to have Sarrail there from the start is too much).
This said, on further reflection I think that the UoE is not likely to spend much political capital just to make Faysal, who is regarded as a British ally after all, a favor: the AKoS might be slightly more progressive ITTL, but it would still be a bourgeois constitutional monarchy (Faysal himself was hardly any sort of social revolutionary), hard to describe it as a Socialist fellow traveler by any stretch of imagination. While the overall configuration ITTL might give Faysal a chance he never truly had IOTL, his options are still very limited, as you noted.
Yes, there is considerably greater British presence in Syria and the Levante. IOTL, British presence did not really help Syria all that much as the British were very eager to follow Sykes-Picot through. I’ll have to look into the entire question in greater depth myself – have you got any recommendation with regards to literature on the topic for me? One hunch I’d have is that the UoE would want to sit on any Inter-Allied Commission on Mandates in Turkey so that it wouldn’t become a purely US thing.

While my own politics tend to be more to the left than this, it really sounds a very reasonable program overall. A lot of rhetoric of course, but that's only to be expected.
My own politics tend to be more to the left than this, too, but the new political landscape of Russia will need to be somewhat comprehensive and include a certain breadth of opinions and interests. Both among the SRs and the SDs (well, among the latter I mean the IRSDLP unification faction, for both the remaining oppositional Mensheviks and Bolsheviks are unlikely to make any relevant presence in the Electoral College), there will be a showdown between two candidates representing the left and the right wings of their parties, each – and then the winners will duel each other in the Union-wide election. (Other Russian parties like the Kadets will participate in the game, too, but I’m going to largely ignore them for now, since clearly after the Soviet interludium, after the backlash against “bourgeois saboteurs” following the botched military coup, after the November Realignment, and after the internal divisions in its Westernmost branches over whether to cooperate with Markov’s Provisional All-Russian Government by German graces or not, the Kadets and other openly bourgeois parties are not going to achieve any electoral success in a FPTP system. In the other federative republics, a wider array of parties will garner support, but at some point in time, they will need to align for the ultimate decision.)

Rhetorics aside, Avksentiev has outlined the following points where his (right-wing SR) platform differs from Kamkov’s (left-wing):
  • Clear delineation from and self-confident competition with the SDs vs. close cooperation among all socialists, even at the cost of following the smaller yet more dynamic SD’s lead;
  • firm Entente alignment and pursuit of “national” / “Union” interests vs. worldwide revolution export;
  • emphasis on stability and economic growth, caution against further socializations vs. socialization of industrial enterprises (or at least toleration of such policies pursued by SDs)
I will cover the pre-electoral and electoral process and its outcomes in future updates, too.

So, is Bulgaria going to fold now, or revolution will engulf it before the goverment is able to properly surrender?
The government of Alexandar Malinov has contacted the Five Allies on the Vardar front and asked for terms, but so have the leaders of the rebels (more or less: they contacted the five allies and signaled full co-operation with Entente occupation, in exchange hoping for recognition as the Entente’s single negotiating party in Bulgaria and support in eliminating the leftovers of the old government). This is the imminent moment of geopolitical action which Avksentiev referred to: the British, the French, the Serbs, and the Greek are probably happy to accept any surrender and will likely prefer that of the official government. Avksentiev thinks that Moscow should instrumentalise its military presence on the ground so that the discussion among the allies is steered towards negotiating with the rebels instead – be it for the immediate surrender, which I think is unlikely to succeed, or be it with regards to its terms and as far as local co-operation partners in the immediate future are concerned. This, too, is going to be difficult: one reason why Malinov surrenders is because he hopes to contain the rebellion this way. The very least goal for the UoE should be to avoid any Entente support in oppressing the Radomir Rebellion and the BANU – if they don’t achieve this, that would be a major failure of Narodnik foreign policy (even if the Inokom – commissioner for foreign affairs – is an SD). All of this is, of course, much complicated by both the official government and its army leadership as well as the rebels being rather heterogeneous bunches.
 
Yes, there is considerably greater British presence in Syria and the Levante. IOTL, British presence did not really help Syria all that much as the British were very eager to follow Sykes-Picot through. I’ll have to look into the entire question in greater depth myself – have you got any recommendation with regards to literature on the topic for me? One hunch I’d have is that the UoE would want to sit on any Inter-Allied Commission on Mandates in Turkey so that it wouldn’t become a purely US thing.
I am fairly well-read on the topic, but most of the sources I base myself on are in Italian. In English, I think you could try the work of Elizabeth Thompson - she's the most significant contemporary historian who has worked on AKoS sources, as far as I know.
 
I am fairly well-read on the topic, but most of the sources I base myself on are in Italian. In English, I think you could try the work of Elizabeth Thompson - she's the most significant contemporary historian who has worked on AKoS sources, as far as I know.
Thank you, that's awesome!
 
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