WI: Garibaldi marches on Rome in 1862?

GauchoBadger · Dec 31, 2018

What if Giuseppe Garibaldi, hero of Italy's unification (and an ardent anticlericalist), had not hesitated to order his republican army to fire on Papal and Piedmontese troops at the Battle (more accurately a skirmish) of Aspromonte in august 1862, thus effectively declaring war and splitting the Italian nationalists in two camps?

How would France and Britain react? I'm afraid their respective responses to this crisis would be crucial.

Would Piedmont, out of circumstance, support a Bourbon loyalist revolt in Sicily to distract Garibaldi, perhaps funding Carmine Crocco?

If Garibaldi succeeds in defeating the Piedmontese and Papists, and forms an Italian republic that includes Rome, where would the Pope and his retinue flee to? France? Austria? Belgium?

GauchoBadger · Jun 19, 2019

Bumping this old thread. Could France end up deciding to annex even more of Savoyard Piedmont if the kingdom collapses into revolution?

mrmandias · Jun 19, 2019

Its an interesting question. Is Garibaldi defeating the Piedmontese and the papal states at all likely?

GauchoBadger · Jun 19, 2019

mrmandias said:
Its an interesting question. Is Garibaldi defeating the Piedmontese and the papal states at all likely?

IMO, it would require a succession of factors to take place in order to even the odds for Garibaldi's republicans, mainly involving grievances by Italian nationalists in Savoyard service about the nature of the new Italian regime (which could, at least on paper, entice soldiers to defect to Garibaldi) and the speed/momentum of Italian unification, alongside the Pope's opposition to such prospect. But even if Giuseppe and his redshirts don't manage to make republicanism sweep all Italian territories, their revolt still has the potential to cause a lot of disruption within the newborn Italian kingdom and shape its future.

Byzantion · Jun 19, 2019

GauchoBadger said:
What if Giuseppe Garibaldi, hero of Italy's unification (and an ardent anticlericalist), had not hesitated to order his republican army to fire on Papal and Piedmontese troops at the Battle (more accurately a skirmish) of Aspromonte in august 1862, thus effectively declaring war and splitting the Italian nationalists in two camps?

How would France and Britain react? I'm afraid their respective responses to this crisis would be crucial.

Would Piedmont, out of circumstance, support a Bourbon loyalist revolt in Sicily to distract Garibaldi, perhaps funding Carmine Crocco?

If Garibaldi succeeds in defeating the Piedmontese and Papists, and forms an Italian republic that includes Rome, where would the Pope and his retinue flee to? France? Austria? Belgium?

France might intervene again on Pope's behalf. Napoleon III. may please his conservative catholic supporters. His wife ist extra devout to Catholicism.

GauchoBadger · Jun 19, 2019

Byzantion said:
France might intervene again on Pope's behalf. Napoleon III. may please his conservative catholic supporters. His wife ist extra devout to Catholicism.

At the same time as his army is also tied down in Mexico? Sounds like a tough sell to the public.

Byzantion · Jun 19, 2019

GauchoBadger said:
At the same time as his army is also tied down in Mexico? Sounds like a tough sell to the public.

Not his entire army.

EnglishCanuck · Jun 19, 2019

GauchoBadger said:
At the same time as his army is also tied down in Mexico? Sounds like a tough sell to the public.

As has been said, not his whole army. The French maintained a garrison of IIRC 12,000 men until 1870 specifically to support the Pope. They could dispatch more from the metropole at need.

P L Richards · Jun 19, 2019

EnglishCanuck said:
As has been said, not his whole army. The French maintained a garrison of IIRC 12,000 men until 1870 specifically to support the Pope. They could dispatch more from the metropole at need.

Which are likely to defeat Garibaldi's forces if the new Italian government doesn't support him (they won't). And please note, @GauchoBadger, in 1862 it's no longer Piedmont but the Kingdom of Italy (even though it doesn't control the whole peninsular). I feel the scenario is unrealistic; for Garibaldi Italian Nationalism trumps his inborn Republicanism. He has already accepted Vittorio Emanuele as King of Italy, and would not want to split the country again into monarchic and republican sections. My view is that changing his mind at Aspromonte is much too late for a POD. You would have to go back earlier, to 1859 if not before, and have Garbaldi never accept the King, for something like this to work.

Bytor · Jun 19, 2019

Garibaldi was, in many ways, skeptical of the Piedmontese rulers and was known to be angry about the Plombières Agreement when it came to light as he felt it was bargaining away Italy's natural territory.

SealTheRealDeal · Jun 19, 2019

If there is a rupture between the Savoyards and the Liberal Nationalists, might Carmine Crocco's southern insurrection be able to succeed?

Tarabas · Jun 19, 2019

Without British ships "casually" around or flat-out corruption of the highest ranking italian/papal/whatever generals, I can't see Garibaldi conquering anything.

P L Richards · Jun 19, 2019

Bytor said:
Garibaldi was, in many ways, skeptical of the Piedmontese rulers and was known to be angry about the Plombières Agreement when it came to light as he felt it was bargaining away Italy's natural territory.

Yes, but it was much more hostility to Cavour rather than dislike of the King. However, this could be a possibly viable POD. Garibaldi is even more angry than in OTL at Nizza (i.e. Nice), which was the city of his birth, being given to the French, that he vows never to trust the Piedmont-Sardinian monarchy again, and remains a staunch Republican as a republic is the only viable way to unite Italy.