Is a Scramble For Space possible?

Let’s say that no WWI happens. Lots of Great Powers are never financially gutted or physically dismantled, Imperialism and Nationalism aren’t as discredited, and major competitions between nations exist on a greater than OTL level.

Could we conceivably have a Scramble For Space at some point?
 
Yes. I guess several competing and partially cooperating space programs seem possible. Probably various European powers try to start their own programs, building launch facilities in their colonies near the Equator. Allied powers could partially cooperate (for example docking their spacecrafts like Apollo-Soyuz in OTL). Communication Satellites could help in connecting colonies to the mainland. Manned Spaceflight could give a lot of prestige to various powers. Still space flight is expensive.
Maybe after some small early space stations, several countries could cooperate to build larger modular space stations.

But we probably see a moon landing later than OTL. It seems cheaper and more resource efficient to build a small space station compared to a large moon program.
 
Perhaps, but how advanced would aerospace technology even be at the end of the 20th century without any world wars?
 
I doubt that there wouldb e much of serious attempt to colonise even nearby space like orbit or Moon. It is quiet expensive operation and economically not very sustainable.
 
Although, you could argue that the US-Soviet space race of the 1950's/1960's was a 'Scramble For Space' by any other means, in the long run, many participating nations would just be content to have a rocket program capable of launching satellites into geosynchronous orbit. For a real 'scramble' like the run for colonies in the late 19th century are two things missing: first the ability to 'claim' a part of space like one could claim a part of Africa. I mean, space is like the ocean: nothing there to plant a flag on. And as for the moon or even Mars or Venus: you can claim to be there first, but without maintaining a permanent army outpost there, you have no means of preventing the next nation to plant their flag right next to yours, let alone to land in the next crater over and plant their flag there.

For the second reason: barring some ASB discoveries like diamonds on the moon or ancient technology in Mars, there is really nothing to gain from having a foothold in space. I mean, Africa had ivory and coffee and cheap labor in abundance. Space has not even oxigen. You'd have to bring your own. The only thing worth going to space for is to plant communication and survey satellites in Earth's orbit.
 
For the second reason: barring some ASB discoveries like diamonds on the moon or ancient technology in Mars, there is really nothing to gain from having a foothold in space. I mean, Africa had ivory and coffee and cheap labor in abundance. Space has not even oxigen. You'd have to bring your own. The only thing worth going to space for is to plant communication and survey satellites in Earth's orbit.

There are plenty of things to gain in space, but the up-front infrastructure costs are truly staggering and there's decades worth of R&D work to do to get from "launching stray dogs into space" to "building mining outposts and manufacturing facilities".

Considering how many "lower hanging fruit" there are still on Earth, it's really hard to make an argument that there is much out there that's cost effective right now besides the science we can do there (which has provided significant economic returns on Earth, especially Earth observation programs) and satellite communications.

Though after decades of work in space and recent advances in rocketry, that may be about to change.

Perhaps, but how advanced would aerospace technology even be at the end of the 20th century without any world wars?

Likely much more advanced than it is today. War has a retarding influence on technological advancement. Mass produced jet aircraft probably would have flown in the early 40s without WW2 and without all the surplus propeller driven planes and all the investment in propeller-plane manufacturing, full adoption of the jet engine would have proceeded maybe 10-20 years faster than OTL. Or there's the way WW1 derailed the development of solar power for around 40 years...

Of course, with no WW2, the V2 is much less likely, but while the V2 had many very important innovations in it, there was alot of really impressive engineering talent interested in rocketry problems and in some ways, the focus on copying the V2 stifled American and Soviet engineers. No V2 is not such a bad loss.

Could we conceivably have a Scramble For Space at some point?

Not without getting into future history, the costs of just 1 moon base in the 70s (with a population at one time of maybe 6-12 men) would be a few billion US$ over the lifetime of the base (10-20 years if the Congress or Politburo had been willing to maintain funding on the program that long). So to really claim territory, and station military force on the moon to enforce that claim, you're talking about a total bill that is, well, alot more than anyone needs to spend to get any benefit from the moon this side of 2050. So since denying a place to those who come after you is prohibitively expensive, there's really not much point in doing it. It would be like Boudicca and the Iceni, if they somehow had discovered the Americas, had bankrupted themselves denying access to the other tribes of Britain. The "territory" of the rest of the Solar System is so vast and the capabilities of the countries of Earth so small in relative terms, there's just too much space for everyone for anyone to need to race.

You could maybe get scrambles for smaller things - like a scramble for Phobos and Deimos, which are pretty valuable due to being even cheaper to get to than our own moon - but not a scramble for much else.

fasquardon
 
One possibly route (though a very unlikely one) is orbital weaponry being allowed for major nations to a restrained extent (platform size, types of weaponry, etc). The reasoning can be on the same lines as the Security Council being the only nations to own nukes. The US and the USSR reason that orbital weapons would help for defense and attacks, while at the same time keeping nations hostile to them in check. That would make the two superpowers to push their space programs even harder to edge out their rivals and other hostile countries. It would certainly create a “scramble” for space in a sense.

But this would be very hard to justify. Orbital weapons have been banned for a good reason.
 
Let’s say that no WWI happens. Lots of Great Powers are never financially gutted or physically dismantled, Imperialism and Nationalism aren’t as discredited, and major competitions between nations exist on a greater than OTL level.

Could we conceivably have a Scramble For Space at some point?

almost no under that scenario or extreme delay

See the World Wars were technological catalyst needed for Space flight
the First World War enable the Material research needed to Aircraft and Rockets, also political impulse like the interdictions of treaty of versailles, that push Germany into development of Rocket technology.
the second World war brought the first operational rockets and computer technology needed for space Exploration
also needed is Space Race between great power to keep there Space program alive, see what happen after Apollo program as Soviet failed to land on Moon...
 
But this would be very hard to justify. Orbital weapons have been banned for a good reason.

Largely because they are extortionately expensive, extremely limited, stupidly vulnerable, easy to counter, but there's the risk the other side might find a way to make them work and orbital weapons in space reduces the "time before you must completely commit to mass genocide" from 30 minutes to around 8 minutes, which is far less time to figure out if you are seeing an actual enemy attack or another computer glitch... (Well, I wouldn't trust my stated times too much, butorbital weapons do really cut down the time you have to figure out if it was all a misunderstanding or the enemy really have decided to kill everyone.)

political impulse like the interdictions of treaty of versailles, that push Germany into development of Rocket technology.

Only German rocket technology wasn't much different to American, British or Soviet rocket technology. They were just desperate enough to commit serious resources to actually building rockets.

People already had a little interest in rockets before WW2, not much, but enough to keep development inching forwards and it was pretty clear that if people wanted to go into space, this was the way to do it.

And without WW2 pushing the development of the long-range bomber to absurd lengths, when nukes are inevitably developed (though likely this happens later without WW2), the IRBM and ICBM likely emerge much faster since there's less of a bomber faction to oppose it. Indeed, in the US there is likely no separate air force without WW2, removing 99% of the political opposition IRBMs and ICMBs faced.

See the World Wars were technological catalyst needed for Space flight

I do not see evidence for this. The technologies needed for space flight are more broad than only rocket technology and metallurgy. And for every technology that developed faster during the wars, there are many more that were held back. Or were held back by over-developed technologies that emerged from the wartime R&D programs, like internal combustion engine-driven aircraft after WW2. Even the push WW2 gave to the genuinely ground-breaking nuclear field arguably has led to the retardation of nuclear engineering overall since the war has ended, since the war led to a heavy focus on the weapon side of the field and early reactors were designed to develop plutonium for cheap, which were then scaled up too quickly to designs like the flammable Windscale piles in the UK and the positive void coefficient Soviet RMBK reactors which had obvious political results when they inevitably went wrong.

Britain might have put more R&D into computers than they otherwise would have, but the Soviets were definitely held back. The Germans may have edged a head in rocketry, but I don't see anything in a V2 that US or Soviet engineers couldn't have figured out in a few years, and it's entirely possible that without the focus on copying the V2 and doing what the Germans advised, both countries engineers might have advanced faster. And that's without touching on the colossal damage both world wars did to the populations of Eurasia. How many key scientists and engineers dies in the death camps? How many starved in Soviet villages? Or were shot fighting for one side or another? How many starved with as half of the Iranian population during the famine caused in that country by WW1? How many died in Poland during the millions that country would lose in WW1 and the millions more that country would lose in WW2?

I say again, there is no evidence. Western Europe recovered economically from WW2 in the 1980s. The FSU still hasn't recovered from the war economically. Germany, Eastern Europe, the ex-Soviet populations, Japan and the world Jewish population all still bear visible demographic wounds. In the Jewish case, that wound is there being 40-60 million fewer Jews in the world than we estimate there would have been without WW2. Given that these are all populations and economies that we would expect to be at the forefront of science and engineering during the 20th Century (as indeed they all were even with WW2), it's hard to imagine how we haven't lost out enormously.

At the very best, all we can say is that the World Wars may have advanced technology (because it's rather hard to prove what would have happened without them, human technological advancement being the product of a number of very complex processes interacting and the sheer damage the wars inflicted being well beyond the capacity of any human mind to imagine). That the wars definitely did lead to technology advancing faster is the sort of wishful thinking that I really think we all need to wean ourselves off of.

For all we know, we missed out on a timeline where Weimar Germany continued being a fairly normal country, rocketry was less advanced in the 40s, a bit less advanced in the 50s, equal to OTL's rocket tech in the 60s, more advanced by the 70s and by the 80s humans started to seriously explore the deep solar system with probes with far superior electronics and nuclear Earth Orbit-to-Luna shuttles have made mining our nearest neighbour practical enough that by the 90s there were a couple major powers with moon bases mining there.

fasquardon
 
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You'd need nukes and MAD before you can have a space race. Without those things, the amounts spent on conventional arms would make a space race an unaffordable luxury.
 
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