The problem is that director like Sergio Leone will not really mesh up with the regime.
The Footprint of Mussolini - TL
The problem is that director like Sergio Leone will not really mesh up with the regime.
Well, francoist Spain was already a main location otl, I think we could also have Lybia and Turkey for variation.
We should not forget the CIA/OSS, they never had problems dealing with Luciano.
You assume Leone had the same experiences as OTL. ITTL, he grew up his whole childhood under Fascism, not to mention having borne witness to Italy's role in WW2 and so forth. I can easily imagine his making 'Spaghetti Westerns' throughout the sixties, with his protagonists facing the Mafia or resisting natives trying to kick the Italians off their old land.
Don't need to be Leone either. Costs are cheap, the regime will give a thumbs up and you can get plenty of action shoved in believably. Action movies will be a big thing in Italy.
If I may ask, what are the eventual plans for Libya and Abyssinia? Has it been mentioned earlier or would it be spoilers? I'm just curious as to whether they would remain in Italy's hands in present day. I'd be very interested to see what Libya and Abyssinia would look like ITTL if Italy kept it. Keep up the good work!
I think first there is to address better the early post war Italian cinema situation. I have an idea I should propose to Sorairo soon.
I am inclined to believe that Italy may well still own Libya to the present as an integral part of its territory. Not only would its oil be seen as of tremendous value, but mention by the Italians has been made about how the temporarily-settled Jewish communities helped immensely with building up Libya for future Italian settlement; while it will probably retain a pretty high Jewish population, the space and infrastructure left behind by the large number who moved to Israel will probably go on to be settled by Italians. Coupled with how low the Arab population in the interior is (as well as the likelihood of anti-Arab suppression undertaken by the Italian government, particularly so in the future given the coming Second Arab-Israeli War), I see it becoming established as a core Italian region by the present.
Abyssinia (plus Somalia) is trickier. Evidently they at least have it until the 70's (as indicated by the foreshadowing in the Balbo interviews), but they are already dealing with substantial terrorism by that point and probably no small amount of international scorn. I would lean towards it becoming independent in the times since then.
Bookmark1995
Banned
Eritrea too might also remain very Italian.
In some respects, Italian rule in Eritrea was a net positive, because Italians also settled their in large numbers, and many Eritreans had opportunities under Italian rule that didn't exist before.
Srettea has 5 million people OTL and is also majority Christian so it could basically become like a larger Italian Guyana. Somalia is an open question- it's too large IMHO to integrate "normally" but part of it might still be held onto. If nothing else a post independence Somalia would probably be in tje Italian sphere of influence, with as mentioned an Italian spaceport there. Possibly including part of OTL Ethiopia as well.
I just hope Somalia will be much more stable than OTL. Eritrea may become the African darling former colony of Italy, especially if - in case of break up of the AOI - would retain Tigray and Afar. Which would make sense, considering Eritrea is Tighrini dominated. Ethiopia will be a very smaller state TTL if returning indipendent - with Harar/Ogaden going with Somalia as well.
Eritrea probably would be easy to keep and it could work as place of Italian space program if it decides launch such. Somalia is much more difficult. Even before POD there was some rebels against Italians. It could anyway work as anti-Arab Muslim nation if just Italians play their cards correctly.
Keep in mind retaining any colony would involve not just the situation in said Colony and Italy; but how the neighboring nations and wider international community view it. I could see numerous Pan African organizations having zero tolerance policy toward any colonial retention ITTL, irregardless of what any referendum declares(even if its not rigged).
I certainly hope that they have enough weapon to enforce that policy. From what I see this TTL does not have that much group calling for decolonization. Major ETO member is still trying to be colonial power and USA will certainly don’t want to further damage their reputation by pissing of European.
So unless they want to go ask Soviet for help, they have to do it themselves.
Besides the two "extremes" of full decolonization like OTL Africa and full retention as a province, there's also a 3rd possibility for more distant places like Eritrea: It could end up like OTL South American countries. Independent, but dominated by the descendants of colonists and assimilated natives. Like the CANZAC nations it could even maintain close relations with Italy in that case.
Loosing Lybia IMHO would require Italy to be defeated by some Arab coalition in a conventional war IMHO. The demographics are too easily changed in the near future given it's small population for them to be driven out in a guerilla war.
Loosing Lybia IMHO would require Italy to be defeated by some Arab coalition in a conventional war IMHO. The demographics are too easily changed in the near future given it's small population for them to be driven out in a guerilla war.
OTL USA tried pretty hard to not look like endorsing European colonization, especially because they viewed colonialism as a handicap against anti-Communism. The USA strongly supported anti-Communist native rulers, because they viewed (probably correctly) almost all colonial projects as unsustainable.
At the very least, I think the USA will be pressuring Italy pretty hard to get out and hand over power to some anti-Communist, Italy-friendly ruler. Whether Italy actually does that or not, well, that's unknown. Also have no idea how long Mussolini's regime lasts. It's extremely unlikely that a post-Mussolini regime would stay involved in any colonial war.
In fact I was still thinking of a Commonwealth status like between Eritrea and Italy. Probably between Somalia and Italy as well.
But Libya would definitely stay into Italy no matter what.
I think at this point major decolonization is unstoppable. Even with the empires in better shape than OTL thus far they have been trying to hold too much and that will lessen their chances with even the colonies they had a better chance to hold. France is fighting to hold Indochina and Churchill is spending political capital trying to preserve the Raj to some extent via dominion status.
The French and British will simply have to start choosing what to cut loose or loose it all even quicker.
Once the dominoes of independence start falling it will be harder to justify keeping hold, especially if in say the British case they don't quickly fall to communism.
A lot will depend on how much self government is given and how quickly.
I am guessing the Pan Africanists organizations in the USA were supporting Wallace a good while and likewise have been sullied by association with his downfall. But I expect they will be back when the movement of Civil Rights once more gains momentum.
The French and British will simply have to start choosing what to cut loose or loose it all even quicker.
Once the dominoes of independence start falling it will be harder to justify keeping hold, especially if in say the British case they don't quickly fall to communism.
A lot will depend on how much self government is given and how quickly.
I am guessing the Pan Africanists organizations in the USA were supporting Wallace a good while and likewise have been sullied by association with his downfall. But I expect they will be back when the movement of Civil Rights once more gains momentum.
TheLoneAmigo
Donor
You’ve nailed exactly why this timeline is uncomfortable to read... but I don’t yet think it’s going to end in a world that glorifies these terrible things.