Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)

Sorry for the remarkably long wait. Honestly, don't have a good reason to justify it, I was just a little distracted by my other TL.

The Birth of Hohenzollern Spain

...Napoleon III feared that a Hohenzollern King in Spain would help the Prussians encircle France with friendly regimes. However, he was also aware that his reputation was absolutely shot in the world, with the acquisition of Luxembourg wildly condemned in even the neutral British press. When the Provisional Government offered the Spanish Crown of Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen, Napoleon III immediately disregarded his more nationalist advisors and accepted the succession. Although King Leopoldo I of Spain was in theory the most powerful man in Spain, in practice, he promised to both Napoleon III and Juan Prim that he would interfere as little as possible in affairs of state, especially foreign affairs. In practice, Prime Minister Juan Prim ran the country, and his political power expanded after surviving an assassination attempt on both him and King Leopoldo. Prim was shot, but survived. However, King Leopoldo did not.[1] The assassination outraged all elements of Spanish society, as both hardcore Republicans and Carlists deplored regicide. The assassination led to the immediate ascension of the six-year old Guillermo I. Ruling on his behalf was his mother, the Infanta Antónia of Portugal.

The new regime was immediately confronted with the Cuban crisis. When Carlos Manuel de Céspedes declared in 1868 the end of slavery and declaration of an independent Cuban Republic, the Spanish regime shuddered. However, the victory of the Confederate insurrection would actually help Spain, not the rebels. The Confederacy never actually directly interfered in Cuban affairs as feared (due to Confederate fears of undermining slavery), although hordes of now totally unemployed Confederate veterans offered their services to the Spanish government. Interestingly, one former Confederate general, Thomas Jordan, offered his services free-of-charge to the Cuban rebels. But the Confederate government, fearing that his support for Cuban liberation would fuel opposition to slavery, had him arrested and placed under house arrest. [2] The Spanish government sought to enlist the aid of General Forrest, but he had already been picked up by a stranger employer. Instead, they hired Confederate soldier Champ Ferguson, who had become a pariah in postwar Confederate politics for his various civilian massacres, but still knew a great deal about guerrilla warfare.[3] The easy destruction of the the Cuban rebels by 1872 brought great prestige to Arsenio Martínez Campos, who had earlier faced criticism he was treating the rebels "too lightly."[4] Just as promised, he actually offered offered Céspedes and his supporters amnesty, which tanked his reputation in Spain but helped keep the peace in Cuba. Céspedes agreed to the amnesty even though Campos, at the insistence of Confederate diplomats and advisors, declined to include an abolishment of slavery in the terms of the peace agreement.[5] Campos, who was antislavery, figured there were alternate methods to end Cuban slavery.

Triumph in Cuba helped Spain deal with its other great crisis of the era, the Carlist uprisings. The Carlists had screamed bloody murder about a "foreign monarch" being established in Madrid. However, the assassination of Leopoldo I weakened the Carlist movement as many bystanders blamed the Carlists (historians are unsure if they were so responsible). Furthermore, the Infanta Antónia was Portuguese, which was much less foreign than her late husband. With the keen understanding of a Portuguese noble, she also vetoed attempts by the liberal government to dismantle local autonomy in Navarre and Catalonia.[6] Finally, the victory in Cuba proved the death knell to the Carlist movement. When Don Carlos proclaimed a rising, his forces were easily dispersed and he was captured immediately, agreeing to relinquish his claim in exchange for a pension and amnesty.

These dual triumphs helped save the Spanish treasury, which was faltering in the aftermath of the Panic of 1872. Where the state was near-bankrupt in 1872[7], victories in Cuba and at home restored investor confidence in Spain. The government was quickly able to refinance its loans and although the state was still deeply in debt to French, North German, British, and especially American investors (who benefited from the most aggressive national monetary policy in the industrializing world), the finances of Spain became at least stable. Although Spain looked like a doomed basket-case in 1868, by 1873, the future of the nation seemed at least plausibly bright.
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[1] OTL, he was assassinated in 1870. IITL, the assassins try to hit both Prim and his monarch, and only get Leopoldo I.
[2] OTL, Thomas Jordan helped train the Cuban rebels.
[3] OTL, Ferguson was hanged for war crimes, although he probably didn't commit everything he was alleged to do.
[4] OTL, the war lasted until 1878 and Campos was forced to step down by 1872. Here, Confederate support to Spain, largely motivated by proslavery, ends the war faster.
[5] The OTL Pact of Zanjon promised an end to slavery by 1888. No such promise was made IITL.
[6] OTL, this helped motivated many people who supported the Carlists.
[7] As OTL.
Hm, a Spanish Empire that might last past the 19th century? Interesting development as always.
Also, glad that you're back on the timeline :)
 

Schnozzberry

Gone Fishin'
I just read through, and this is a really good read! One thing that's really interesting is how Spain seems to be on the upswing. A more stable Spain would be at least a secondary power in Europe which poses a lot of potential for TTL's First World War.
 
Chapter 8 - The Boshin War
The Boshin War
“The Jews fear the Samurai” - Slogan of the Nation of Samurai (1930-1949)

Before even the ink on the Treaty of Paris had dried, Nathan Bedford Forrest, being largely uninterested in the silly quibbling of Confederate politicians, decided that he had to find new pastures to work in and strike back against the Union. One of the closest international allies of the Union had been, ever since the American admiral Matthew Perry had sailed into Tokyo Bay, was the Tokugawa Shogunate in Japan. The Treaty of Amity and Commerce (also known as the Harris Treaty), stood as testament to this.

Forrest naturally found his next employer - the Tosa Domain of Japan. The Satsuma domain (and by extension, their close Choshu allies) had already enjoyed British support, while the Shogunate enjoyed the support of France and the United States. The Tosa domain thus stood alone in not having a military expert, and with Forrest on board, they had a cavalry expert. Although the Tosa Domain had a far smaller army than either Choshu or Satsuma, they quickly built up a small, highly trained mounted rifle force under Forrest. In particular, Forrest was interested in Japan, because he was fascinated in Japanese melee weapons (Forrest’s cavalry saber likely killed dozens of soldiers in the American Civil War).

On January 4, 1868, the Choshu, Satsuma, and Tosa domains formally declared the restoration of the Meiji Emperor to absolute rule. Under Forrest’s suggestions, Tosa, which was less hardline nationalist than Choshu and Satsuma, also sent its cavalry squadron to Kyoto to back up the two larger domains. In an incredible breach of international diplomacy, Forrest decided that he was not going to be stopped by etiquette and miss out on the bloodshed.

Imperial forces, largely from Satsuma and Choshu, shocked the world as they ambushed and defeated the Shogunal forces outside of Kyoto.[1] They further force shocked the world when Forrest’s cavalry brigade cut off a retrating Shogun Tokugawa Yoshinobu before he could reach Osaka, cutting down most of his guard. With the Shogun himself in custody, Imperial forces declared total victory.[2] In Tosa custody, the Shogun officially surrendered and called on all shogunal forces to step down.[3] Although modern historians universally agree that the Boshin War would have been won by the Imperial side even had Shogun Yoshinobu not been captured by Forrest’s Tosa cavalry, the Tosa cavalry certainly sped up the Imperial victory and both Tosa commanders and their foreign advisor gained international fame for their remarkable act. Forrest in particular, became a folk hero.

Most foreign nations saw the total defeat of the Shogun and decided to immediately recognize the new government, even though it had made no promises of respecting international harbors and pre-existing treaties.[4] With his newfound prestige in Japan, Forrest advised Tosa to take a more uncompromising stance towards colonial concessions, which aligned Tosa’s opinion with Satsuma and Choshu. Under Anglo-Confederate advisors, the Imperial forces promised to not harm foreigners, but they indicated their desire to abrogate the Harris treaty with America, and by extension, the Ansei Treaties. Both Forrest and the British envoy, Harris Parkes, pushed this did not actually mind since that actually put them as the most privileged trade partner of Japan. Instead, only the Dutch, French, Russians, and Americans were shut out.

Napoleon III flip-flopped and led the Russians and Dutch in recognizing the Shogunate of Japan as the rightful government of Japan. However, there was no actual Shogun. Instead, a band of Northern domains, chiefly Aizu, recognized Date Yoshikuni as the new Shogun of Japan. A band of Russian, Dutch, American, and French troops quickly arrived in Sendai to help his government. The original plan was Edo, but the capital fell without a shot as Imperial forces advanced simply too quickly. However, Date Yoshikuni didn’t actually really care about the Shogunal cause. The only reason he fought the Imperial forces was to seek amnesty for his father-in-law, Matsudaira Katamori, the daimyo of the Aizu Clan captured in the Battle of Toba-Fushimi. He fought the Emperor not out of ideology, but out of filial loyalty. Similarly, his men shared not anti-Imperial ideology, but loyalty to him and Matsudaira.

However, the Satsuma and Choshu domains hated Matsudaira, because he had persecuted Choshu and Satsuma activists while serving as the pro-Shogun Military Commissioner of Kyoto. They were loathe to give him amnesty.[5] However, now, Tosa had risen to match Satsuma and Choshu in prestige. Furthermore, the shogunal army, with the Franco-Russo-Dutch expeditionary force, was actually considerably more powerful than the Imperial army. Thus, Tosa made a deal. On the eve of the battle of Sendai, Matsudaira was released safely and Date, thanking the Tosa domain, repudiated his role as Shogun, officially submitting to Imperial rule. Most of the Shogunal army immediately deserted or even switched sides, as the majority was only there out of loyalty. Only the hardcore anti-Imperial idealogues were left, and so Imperial forces were able to carve a narrow, but bloody victory against an isolated, surrounded, and horrifically outnumbered foreign expeditionary force, despite the technological gap.[6]

The victory shocked the world. Napoleon III was particularly in shock, concluding that the French Army might not actually win a war against Prussia. He decided to cut his losses, as he often did. The failure of the Japanese expedition was also one of many incidents that helped soured Franco-Russian relations, as France was seen to have largely “led” the enterprise. Alexander II started to see the Prussian-dominated North German Confederation as a more reliable partner. The humiliation was one of many reasons why Lincoln would win his 1868 landslide - Lincoln had lambasted the expeditionary force as a doomed imperialistic idea, much like when he stood nearly alone lambasting the Mexican-American War. In contrast, Lincoln did not take Forrest’s bait, deftly negotiating with the Imperial government to have all American POWs returned, with open/friendly trade relations (albeit more equal) quickly reestablished. The Dutch fumed, but had no ability to project force without a major power on their side. However, poisonous relations with Japan would become a future Dutch trend.

The Tosa domain was in particularly jubilant. It had risen from a third-bit player in a losing alliance into being the most prestigious victorious domain in all of Japan. Gotō Shōjirō and Itagaki Taisuke, the leading figures of the Tosa Domain, was delighted by Forrest’s help. At Forrest’s request, the two of them arranged for Forrest to be given a symbolic pension in koku, as an officially appointed samurai retainer of Yamauchi Toyoshige, Daimyo of the Tosa Domain. Notably, Forrest was now allowed to wear two swords, something he would famously do for the rest of his life (his cavalry sabre and a “requisitioned” Japanese katana), even after almost all samurai special privileges were be abolished (with only outraged Tosa retainers preventing a total abolishment of the symbolic class).[7] Forrest would quickly become a folk hero in the Confederate States, viewed as the man who simultaneously slayed France, Russia, the Netherlands, and of course, the Yankees.
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[1] This is the OTL Battle of Toba-Fushimi.
[2] It’s more or less the same battle, except the Shogun is outright captured.
[3] OTL, this happened OTL in May, 1868. Now, it happens in January, 1868. Obviously, like OTL, many people disobey the Shogun.
[4] OTL, the Imperial government was only recognized after agreeing to do those things.
[5] All OTL.
[6] This all really gives me an “Isandlwana” feel.
[7] The Tosa domain avoids a total abolishment of the Samurai class, though I guess it symbolically persists. The main difference from OTL is that the OTL Meiji government was dominated by Satsuma and Choshu rerainers, but now it's an even government of all 4 major Imperial clans, adding in Tosa and Hizen.
 
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Hm, a Spanish Empire that might last past the 19th century? Interesting development as always.
Also, glad that you're back on the timeline :)

I just read through, and this is a really good read! One thing that's really interesting is how Spain seems to be on the upswing. A more stable Spain would be at least a secondary power in Europe which poses a lot of potential for TTL's First World War.

Wow. This is good.

Thanks to all, I was actually really skeptical if "yet another confederate TL" would get any interest.

I would say it's less Spain on the upswing and more Spain just avoiding total catastrophe (at least temporarily). Obviously Spain still has a lot of challenges, and even if things are a lot better than OTL, the Spanish Civil War shows how many incredible social and economic and political problems Spain had. Carlism for example, had many underlying causes that are still there even if the Carlists aren't there. And even in a best-case scenario for Spain, it really doesn't reach the level of development of Britain, France, Prussia, etc. Same with Cuba, winning one rebellion doesn't fix the underlying problems of Spanish Cuba. If anything, the possible extended longevity of slavery might worsen it.

I also do appreciate speculation, especially because I tend not to plan that super far in advanced. I only have a vague idea of how TTL WWI-equivalent might turn start out, for example (to the extent that I do, it should be fairly obvious). So speculation often becomes actual inspiration.
 
Chapter 9 - The Lincoln Administration at Home
The Lincoln Administration at Home
The Lincoln honeymoon didn’t last long. Many Radical Republicans thought the Lincoln Administration was an opportunity to wash away the shame and perfidy of the Pendleton Administration. However, many Republicans quickly found that Lincoln was disturbingly moderate for their tastes.

The American political spectrum, included Lincoln, was united on finally ending slavery in its last vestiges (Delaware, Missouri, and Kentucky).[1] However, Lincoln advocated emancipated slavery, a cause that was surprisingly important to him as he felt lenient treatment towards slaveholders in those states would highlight the absurdity of the Southern secession.[2] Lincoln hoped that some Southern states might rejoin the Union, though he also believed it would have to be by free will, not force. Although many slaveholders were unhappy, they largely saw Lincoln’s plan as preferable to uncompensated emancipation, and moderate Republicans and border state politicians passed a compensated emancipation bill, largely along the lines of the D.C. bill. Lincoln also encouraged a provision that set aside U.S. government funds for any escaped slaves, who would be considered free and obviously not returned to the CSA. Not soon later, the 13th Amendment was ratified, prohibiting slavery forever.

Because of slave fugitives, another issue would divide Lincoln's party: the Santo Domingo issue. Lincoln had a favorable opinion towards the annexation of Santo Domingo, largely because he felt that it could be a natural destination for escaped slaves from the Confederate States, including all of the slaves liberated during the Secession War itself. Although he had nothing against settling resettled slaves in the mainland, especially in the new West, he also feared that accepting escaped slaves would create popular resentment, which could eventually lead to the possibility of such a program ending. Lincoln did not want to risk that. Lincoln also didn’t have a very positive view of territorial expansion, but the willingness of the Dominican government itself assuaged those concerns (the local population was quite unhappy, but Lincoln was not made aware of this.) The annexation treaty passed by a narrow vote, completing the American annexation. In contrast, Lincoln politely turned down Russian offers to sell their colony of Aljaska, assuming that it was a useless imperial endeavor designed to put America at odds with the United Kingdom (he was correct about Russian aims).

Lincoln profoundly realigned the American party system. When he took power in 1869, the Republican Party had nearly wiped out the Democratic Party outside of the border states. Although Lincoln remained popular among most Republicans and most Democrats, some Republicans grew to resent his presidency as a lost opportunity. Opposition to Lincoln spiked at the worst time, with the Panic of 1872[3], especially as under the influence of Vice President Kelley, Lincoln sparked Republican outrage by vetoing the Coinage Act of 1872, which would have ended bimetallism. In addition, when railroads started going bankrupt, Lincoln, a huge supporter of the postwar rail boom, outraged many by having the federal government directly purchase failing railroads, even though Congress had appropriated no money for this act. Worse of all, he purchased the railroads with moneys appropriated for the former border state slaveholders, compensating those slaveholders with shares in the railroads. Although a canny solution that bypassed Congress, it angered pretty much everyone.

Ironically, although Lincoln was a firm non-interventionist, his easy money policies in an era where almost all other major nations were cutting back on fiscal policy turned America into the chief financier of much of the world. American loans propped up almost every state that sought respite from the emptying out of European loans. Even though the Monroe doctrine died in Mexico against Lincoln's wishes, it seemed he had reestablished it with the power of the dollar. Ironically, one of the states that went most deep into debt from America was Emperor Maximilian's Mexico, which desperately needed funding to stabilize the nation, but found no loans from France incoming.

As a result of his violations of party orthodoxy, Lincoln was quickly informed by close friends within the Republican Party that he was not likely to be nominated for President. However, he felt the economy was vulnerable and that he was the only one who could shepherd through the nation. He more or less believed in the two-term norm, but he felt there was a bit of wiggle room for non-consecutive terms. He ultimately decided to run on the National Union label for a third election in a row, organizing his own National Union convention.[4] Democratic leaders, eager to attach themselves onto an actually popular politician for the first time since McClellan, declined to hold their own convention, with many prominent Democratic politicians attending the Lincoln Convention. Ultimately, Lincoln agreed to accept a Democrat as his running mate. However, he picked one he had a strong relationship, leading to the National Union ticket of Abraham Lincoln and Francis Blair of Missouri.

With the economy as the biggest issue of the 1872 elections, Senator John Sherman of Ohio upset the radical Benjamin Wade on a contentious convention floor fight, largely because Sherman was much better liked among his fellow Senators. He then chose George Boutwell of Massachusetts as his running mate, further emphasizing the recession.
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[1] With the war going worse, uncompensated Maryland emancipation failed, and they passed a compensated emancipation plan instead.
[2] OTL Lincoln supported compensated emancipation in Washington D.C. and supported it in the border states. The border states rebuffed him, wanting to keep slavery, but in 1869, their position is much worse and they take the Lincoln deal.
[3] Weakened by the lack of a Franco-Prussian War, but strengthened by the US Civil War being so much worse.
[4] Similar to what Andrew Johnson did, but people actually attend this NU convention because the President isn't wildly unpopular. Not entirely dissimilar to the Liberal Republicans in OTL 1872. How popular, we'll find out...
 
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Democratic leaders, eager to attach themselves onto an actually popular politician for the first time since McClellan, declined to hold their own convention, with many prominent Democratic politicians attending the Lincoln Convention. Ultimately, Lincoln agreed to accept a Democrat as his running mate. However, he picked one he had a strong relationship, leading to the National Union ticket of Abraham Lincoln and Francis Blair of Missouri.

With the economy as the biggest issue of the 1872 elections, Senator John Sherman of Ohio upset the radical Benjamin Wade on a contentious convention floor fight, largely because Sherman was much better liked among his fellow Senators. He then chose George Boutwell of Massachusetts as his running mate, further emphasizing the recession.

Democrats folding themselves in with the Lincoln Republicans becoming the National Union or perhaps Unionist party, whereas the Republicans still remain divided that possibly the Radical Republicans may form their own Radical Party maybe?

Well, possibly....

Anywho, interesting choice to have Lincoln (if he wins) have 1861-1865 and then 1869-1877.
 
Chapter 10 - American Indian Policy, 1865-1873
American Indian Policy, 1865-1873
President McClellan, knowing that he failed to deal a knockout blow to Lee when given the chance as the General of the Army of Potomac, decided to leave much of the actual war to his generals. He deplored the losses that U.S. Grant took, but was quickly forced to admit that he was effective. What would surprise many at the time is that today McClellan is known not primarily for his role in creating the Army of the Potomac or his role in prosecuting the Civil War, but rather his role in American Indian history.

Upon McClellan’s ascension to the White House, the nation had hundreds of treaties with Indian tribes and the tendency of both sides to break those treaties often led to war, including wars against the Sioux, Yavapai, Ute, Apache, and Navajo. Lincoln had largely neglected the American West, but with McClellan’s military mind with nothing to actually use it on, he quickly decided to make his impact on American Indian relations. After all, every single troop spent fighting the Indians was one troop that was not fighting the Confederacy.

McClellan quickly understood the obvious problem behind Indian peace treaty. He realized he was not dealing with someone like himself. American soldiers were clearly signing treaties with Indian tribes that didn’t exactly live in the world of Westphalian nationstates. In some cases, Americans picked random Indians, assumed he was a “chief” and then paid him off to sign on behalf of his “nation”, a phoney treaty that both the settlers and Indians knew was phony. And when the treaty was obviously not followed, one side or the other would scream “perfidy!” McClellan was determined to move past this constantly phoney and fraudulent system.

After a few conversations with Grant, who supported him, McClellan announced a “policy of peace” that would set the stage for “peace in the South.” It was shorthand for redirecting more troops South. Grant sent him his own staffer, Brigadier Ely S. Parker (also known as Hasanoanda) to serve as his first Commissioner for Indian Affairs. McClellan’s peace policy involved replacing US government officials, especially political appointees, with religious officials whose sole motivation in managing “friendly” Indians was religious, not monetary. [1] These religious officials would presumably teach the Indians American-style Christianity and agriculture. Most controversially, in a nod to his Catholic base, President McClellan explicitly allowed Catholic organizations, including the Jesuits, into his program.[2] Although heavy-handed and oppressive to many of the Natives, these Jesuits would still eventually become some of the fiercest partisans of American Indian interests.[3] Despite that, McClellan actually convinced Congress to allocate a great deal of money to be spent on developing agriculture infrastructure, by convincing them that it was cheaper to bribe Indians than it was to pay for guns. And the Union had more spare money than spare guns.

To deal with the current wars, McClellan personally managed individualized responses to each region. In Utah, McClellan dispatched a token group of federal troops to the Utah territory in order to place them between Mormon settlers and Chief Black Hawk. To the dismay of the settlers, McClellan had the troops stop their Southern settlement advance, simply because he figured if he left Black Hawk alone, he too would be convinced by McClellan’s Christian Indian model. Utah settlers almost revolted, but were dissuaded by Brigham Young, who publicly supported McClellan’s strategy, and opted instead to sneak secret Mormon missionaries into McClellan's "peace program." In contrast, McClellan took a harder stance against the Sioux, sending a large army to sack Sioux villages and mow down Sioux warriors. Despite that, he quickly agreed to a surprisingly Sioux-friendly treaty at Fort Laramie, figuring that showing the Sioux that the Americans could easily crush them, but giving them most of what they wanted would prevent future wars. When asked if he was worried about angry settlers, McClellan shrugged and said “territories don’t have any electoral votes.”

McClellan’s new reservations had many problems that would scar American Indians, but most would say that his plan was generally an improvement on the previous policy, a series of haphazard wars and corrupt exploitation of Indians. In general, Presidents Pendleton and Lincoln didn’t particularly like the McClellan doctrine, but they both concluded that it wasn’t worth kicking a beehive over. At the very least, the American west seemed mostly at peace, and none of them wanted war in the headlines after the trauma of the War of Southron Independence.
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[1] Same as OTL Grant’s Peace Policy, but helped by McClellan actually being temperamentally suited to manage this - he was a cautious and meticulous organizer, traits which serve McClellan well here even if they didn't against Lee.
[2] Not OTL.
[3] Similar to Jesuits in large swaths of Latin America.
 
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Enjoying this timeline. Very interesting to see a Southern victory timeline where the Democrats get blamed. Sad to see America not purchase Alaska. You would think that the Federal government would look for territorial enlargement as a way to off set loosing the South, if only to boost national morale. Keep up the good work.
 
Enjoying this timeline. Very interesting to see a Southern victory timeline where the Democrats get blamed. Sad to see America not purchase Alaska. You would think that the Federal government would look for territorial enlargement as a way to off set loosing the South, if only to boost national morale. Keep up the good work.

I mean buying Alaska was seen as a dumb, useless move at the time. It's easy to butterfly away "Seward's Folly" in a TL where the U.S. probably has better things to worry about, It wasn't until gold, and later oil, was discovered that Alaska was looked at as anything but a frozen hell hole.
 
I mean buying Alaska was seen as a dumb, useless move at the time. It's easy to butterfly away "Seward's Folly" in a TL where the U.S. probably has better things to worry about, It wasn't until gold, and later oil, was discovered that Alaska was looked at as anything but a frozen hell hole.
Well buying Alaska was meant to preclude buying - or somehow taking - British Columbia. Its just that the latter was refused. Seward just overextended himself really.
 
Chapter 11 - The 1872 Elections and "Radical Reconstruction
The 1872 Elections and "Radical Reconstruction"
Lincoln’s railroad bailout, while wildly detested in the industrial Eastern states, was celebrated in most states with a railroad. Memories of Lincoln’s support for homesteading made him popular in most of the rural states. In addition, although Lincoln was pro-tariff, he was somewhat less pro-tariff than his Republican opponent. All of these gave Lincoln an unshakeable grasp on the West.

Similarly, Lincoln was viewed as the friendliest politician in America to the border states. His support for compensated emancipation gained him more or less iron support among the border states, as did his Missouri running mate, Francis Blair. The problem with Lincoln was that in the rest of the country, although Lincoln was still well-liked, they still did see him as the cause of the worst recession in the nation’s history. Even many of Lincoln’s supporters blamed him for the recession. Whereas Lincoln advocates campaigned across the country, the Sherman/Boutwell ticket declined to campaign directly, hoping to make the election a referendum on Lincoln. However, a referendum on Lincoln cut two ways, leading 1872 to be a fight between Lincoln’s personal popularity and “Lincoln’s panic.” In many ways, it was remarkable that Lincoln could retain such popularity even in the midst of such economic turmoil.

As polls closed election day, it was going to be clear that the race wouldn’t be decided in one day. With 271 electoral votes, there would be no tie - whoever hit 136 electoral votes first would win. Lincoln had clearly won a landslide victory in every Western state and border state, as well as his home-state of Illinois, gaining 98 votes. Sherman edged out comfortable, wins in Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, and Ohio, earning 56 votes.

In play was New York (with 35 votes!), Pennsylvania (with 29!), as well as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, New Jersey, and Connecticut.

Next declared was Pennsylvania for Sherman, bringing the total to 98-85..

Then came Indiana for Lincoln, bringing the total to 113-85.

Finally, the biggest call of the night came, with New York going for Sherman, bringing the total to 113-120.

Then came New Jersey for Lincoln, bringing the total to 119-120.

Then came Wisconsin for Lincoln, bringing the total to 129-120.

Then Minnesota came in for Sherman, bringing the total to 129-125. With 119 to win, one of the candidates neared victory, with only Connecticut (6) and Michigan (11) left to vote. Interestingly, the electoral votes of Connecticut did not matter, because it would put Lincoln at 135 or Sherman at 131 votes. Thus, Michigan would decide the election.

Finally, three days after the election, the race was over. Sherman won Michigan by a small, but durable margin, clearing 136. A day later, Connecticut too would decide for Sherman by a mere 493 votes, bringing the final total to 142-129. Lincoln conceded, having ran the fourth and last presidential race of his life. Notably, Lincoln won the popular vote in all four elections. However, he only would win two of those races.

In his concession speech, Lincoln hoped the best for Sherman and Boutwell. Whereas his first speech had urged McClellan to continue waging the war (which he did), Lincoln urged the country to look to the future rather than relitigate old wounds. However, in looking to the future, Lincoln urged his countrymen not to be seduced by the “false song of imperialism.” In the climax of his speech, Lincoln noted that he had spent his entire life fighting for “liberty, union, and peace”, before admitting that he had “failed with at least one,” but that it was not too late for the other two.

In his inauguration address, President-Elect Sherman alluded to Lincoln’s speech, saying that the election was not an excuse to reopen wounds, but rather that had been elected for one task: the radical reconstruction of the American economy. President Sherman would do just as much to realign American politics as Lincoln had.

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So, this is the second time poor Lincoln has gained the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College. Hopefully he hasn't lost as many members of his family in this TL in any case (and he got two full terms as President).

Just discovered this TL today and am really enjoying it! Keep up the great work.
 
Well, that’s pretty much the death knell for any attempt the CSA might have made to build a homegrown manufacturing sector with the USA right next door.
The CS Constitution prevented protective tariffs. It did not prevent revenue tariffs. Indeed, in 1861 the expectation was that tariffs and other indirect taxes would be the main source of federal government revenue, since in this era federal governments weren't supposed to levy many direct taxes.

The CSA will certainly be levying revenue tariffs on imported goods. They tried to implement this in 1861, though the Union blockade and progress of Union armies meant that they did not have much luck collecting revenue from it.

What tends to get overlooked in discussions about the future of CS manufacturing is that these revenue tariffs will apply to Northern manufactured goods. In the OTL post-ACW South, their manufacturing may have had some protective tariffs from European goods, but the tariffs on Northern goods were universally 0%.

In an independent CSA, there will be a revenue tariff on Northern goods. What level it will be set at can be debated; it was at 15% (IIRC) at the start of the war, and given the various war debt requirements I think that it will settle at around 20% in the immediate post-bellum era. Either way, that means that Confederate manufacturing now enjoys a protective advantage over Northen goods, which will probably give local manufacturers a significant boost compared to OTL.

As an aside, there is also no real economic consensus whether protective tariffs actually did much good for a country's industrialisation in the long term. So it's possible that the CSA's constitutional prohibition may be largely irrelevant anyway.
 
The CS Constitution prevented protective tariffs. It did not prevent revenue tariffs. Indeed, in 1861 the expectation was that tariffs and other indirect taxes would be the main source of federal government revenue, since in this era federal governments weren't supposed to levy many direct taxes.

The CSA will certainly be levying revenue tariffs on imported goods. They tried to implement this in 1861, though the Union blockade and progress of Union armies meant that they did not have much luck collecting revenue from it.

What tends to get overlooked in discussions about the future of CS manufacturing is that these revenue tariffs will apply to Northern manufactured goods. In the OTL post-ACW South, their manufacturing may have had some protective tariffs from European goods, but the tariffs on Northern goods were universally 0%.

In an independent CSA, there will be a revenue tariff on Northern goods. What level it will be set at can be debated; it was at 15% (IIRC) at the start of the war, and given the various war debt requirements I think that it will settle at around 20% in the immediate post-bellum era. Either way, that means that Confederate manufacturing now enjoys a protective advantage over Northen goods, which will probably give local manufacturers a significant boost compared to OTL.

As an aside, there is also no real economic consensus whether protective tariffs actually did much good for a country's industrialisation in the long term. So it's possible that the CSA's constitutional prohibition may be largely irrelevant anyway.

I largely agree, though the revenue tariffs also can only be allocated as "necessary to pay the debts, provide for the common defense, and carry on the Government of the Confederate States." They explicitly dropped the "general welfare" from the Constitution - and any fair reading of the Confederate Constitution would look at the intent of the writers (still alive at this time!) and find a variety of limitations on what tariff revenue can be used towards. ITL, SCOTCS found it didn't allow for Bragg's plan to increase tariff revenue to fund prosthetics for veterans from poorer states, which actually seems to me like the only fair reading of the clause.

What's the status of the Tredegar Iron Works?

Thanks for the question! I will make sure to address it in my next Confederate update (which is probably the update after next?)
 
ITL, SCOTCS found it didn't allow for Bragg's plan to increase tariff revenue to fund prosthetics for veterans from poorer states, which actually seems to me like the only fair reading of the clause.

I was actually surprised that the decision was as narrow as it was, but I suppose that's the politicisation of the American judiciary for you...
 
Chapter 12 - The Manitoba War and the Expansion of Canada
The Manitoba War and the Expansion of Canada
The Dominion of Canada was initially conceived of as a "Canadian Confederation", a federal system where all of the crown colonies would retain most of their autonomy. However, as a result of no other colonies joining the Province of Canada, the decision was shortly made after independence for the Dominion of Canada to be styled directly after the United Kingdom as a unitary parliamentary state. A Confederation that included only one province seemed absurd at the time, and MacDonald reluctantly agreed to calls from opponents of a federal system to centralize government. Had the Maritime colonies joined in 1867, they would have very well likely gained much more leverage than they ended up eventually having.

The first test for the new Dominion of Canada was the acquisition of Rupert's Land from the British crown. The acquisition rapidly shifted the demographics of Canada, thanks to some of the Western territories being heavily settled by Francophone Catholic metis. It was greatly feared that the acquisition of what became to called Manitoba would create a majority-Catholic France. Prime Minister MacDonald ultimately charged ahead with Western expansion, repulsing anti-Catholic Liberals like George Brown. The Conservative Party of Canada was increasingly dependent on the former Parti Bleu politicians of Eastern Canada, and after a brief insurrection in the Red River Colony, MacDonald assuaged their concerns by simultaneously annexing Rupert's Land, establishing representation-by-population, and ensuring Catholic Church autonomy over French-language schools throughout the entire country. Before the annexation of Manitoba, Western and Eastern Canada were both allocated an identical number of seats in Parliament, but after, they were allocated by population, which favored the slightly more numerous Anglophones, but not enough to override the additional seats gained in the new Manitoban lands.

The response among certain aspects of Canadian society was unbridled rage. MacDonald and much of the Conservative leadership thought his bill was a fair compromise and most Metis in Manitoba stood down immediately thereafter. However, Canadian society largely thought it favored Catholics, sparking further violence. John Christian Schultz's Canadian Party in Manitoba revolted as they saw increasing Francophone immigration from Eastern Canada add to the Metis and threaten their way in life. Thereafter, a variety of radical Orangemen in Manitoba would launch violent attacks on both Canadian government offices and Francophone immigrants, culminating in the 1872 assassination of Prime Minister MacDonald by Orangeman Thomas Scott. These events were often referred to as the "Manitoba War", although they never rose to the level of outright conflict. The Conservatives, left temporarily leaderless in the 1872 election, would go on to narrowly lose the election to Edward Blake's Liberal Party.

The Liberals, seeking to undo much of the Conservative "compromise" on French language and religion, further pressed for the expansion of Canada, making moves to acquire British Columbia with the knowledge that its population was almost entirely Anglophone. As a result of the planned acquisition (even if stalled by British Columbian objections to Canadian skepticism of a railroad to BC), the demographics of British Columbia would eventually tilt the nation towards parity between French and English speakers. As such, the Parliament of Canada remained remarkably unproductive. With various safeguards of parliamentary protocol that required slightly higher than 50%+1 majorities[1] and deep partisan polarization in Canada, productive legislation was almost never passed. In response to increasing Conservative dependence on French voters, the Liberal Party doubled down on anti-Catholicism instead of expanding its appeal. This meant that although the Liberal and Conservatives parties regularly went in and out of office, neither group was ever able to enact much of its agenda happily. Many in both camps sought to abolish most of the niceties of parliamentary protocol to simply ram their agenda through, but their British overlords quickly iced any such proposals, determined that its new colony should retain "responsible government." In particular, two men grew to dominate the era, often pingponging the office of Prime Minister between the two - George Brown of the Liberal Party and John Rose of the Conservative Party (who narrowly edged out fellower Montrealer D'Arcy McGee in the post-MacDonald leadership elections).
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[1] Enacted after the implementation of "representation-by-population" to ensure that there'd be no way for Anglophone or Francophone Canadians to unilaterally impose policies on the other.
 
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