Interesting to see so many people thinking the TU would go for option 1. Does there seem to be any reasonable chance that it would be successful? To me, it would like the USSR escalating OTLs Cuban Missile Crisis instead of cutting its loses. Possible but I’ll advised.
Option 1 is double-or-nothing, and as mentioned above, would be the option which most reflects a concern for shoring up domestic as opposed to foreign opinion. Option 2 is to essentially muddle along and hope for the best, which isn't working, and option 3 is centered on cutting losses abroad and appeasing the other main power blocks. The major factor which determines what choice TU leadership goes for is how secure they believe themselves to be, how unified the leadership is, and how much of a threat from below they perceive. If they are both unified and primarily worried about public opinion in general, especially relating to economic matters, they'll be more likely to go for option 3, and attempt to deescalate and try to reestablish economic links with the other blocs. The Technocratic bloc is quite large and populous, but they still need external markets, and access to imported goods can be a useful lever to keep the middle and elite classes in line. If leadership is not unified, but still largely worried about public opinion, they'll be more likely to default to option 2 due to decision paralysis over whether to alienate the hardliners (option 3) or everyone else (option 1). If leadership does not see the public as a threat but does see potential competing cliques either within itself or in some other organ of the state, option 1 becomes more attractive, especially in the short-term. Africa is a far-off place, but a threat close to home can have a powerful effect on national unity, and would be highly effective in saving face with hardliners and staving off a coup among the elites. There would have to be some manufactured fig leaf of a casus belli, but a conflict with Russia or Japan seems to me to be the most likely outlet if the TU feels itself backed against the wall. Their offensive power projection in their immediate backyard would be much greater than a continent away, and the population and industrial strength of the TU makes it a formidable opponent on the defensive. A short, victorious war would win back all the prestige lost in African adventures and then some, cementing the TU bloc as the preeminent Eurasian power and staving off any leadership challenge for at least a generation, if it works. There is a very good chance, however, that such a move would pull in several of the other power blocs beyond the immediate initial combatants, at which point the war will no longer be short, or victorious, but tremendously bloody for all sides and potentially thermonuclear. Given the massive risk of starting a hot conflict, the TU leadership would have to either greatly underestimate the resolve of the other world powers, or consider its safety to be in grave danger before doing so.