On the morning of October 26 2004, American and coalition warplanes took off from airbases and carriers in the Persian Gulf to launch strategic airstrikes against alleged WMD facilities and against key Iraqi Republican Guard positions. These airstrikes were devastating but ultimately limited in scope. All of the major players in the region were warned ahead of time and the airstrikes would cease by the following evening.
In the meantime, the US had made contact with disillusioned Iraqi generals and Baathists who were concerned with Saddam’s deterioating health and mental state and potential takeover by his radical sons. The US promised to remove all sanctions and end the no fly zone when they took power. They also promised financial aid and a guarantee of Iraqi sovereignty.
When the strikes began, Saddam Hussein fled the capital, fearing that NATO and their were launching a full scale invasion of the country in a repeat of 1991. With the Iraqi leadership thrown into disarray, the coup plotters made their move and seized key positions in Baghdad and across the country, declaring martial law. When some Saddam loyalists tried to resist, phase two began.
With Iraq spiralling into chaos, Trump convinced regional players such as Turkey, Syria and Jordan to launch an “stablization mission”. By noon, the Arab coalition rolled across the border, with US and British marine and airborne divisions seizing important positions in Basra. Even the Iranians and Saudis were enlisted in helping. All the while, the Iraqi rebel alliance launched a grand offensive against the government. This unlikely coalition broke the back of the Saddam loyalists, with Hussein himself fleeing into hiding. By midnight a ceasefire was declared, and an emergency session of the UN Security Council was convened to resolve the crisis.
By this point, an Iraqi military junta was in place, which launched negotiations with the Coalition and the rebel forces. It was agreed that a United Nations peacekeeping force would be sent into Iraq to secure the region. Meanwhile, the Baathists would remain in power, albeit under new management and the Iraqi military would be used to stablize the situation. Trump did not want to create a power vacuum in the region and would also withdraw American forces a soon as possible.
Unbelievably, this complicated scheme had worked.
With peace negotiations beginning in Vienna, it seemed like the crisis had been resolved. However, with Turkish intervention in the north, a whole new pandora’s box had been opened, with great consequences for the region in the future...
Nevertheless, it was seen as a great success at the time and Trump’s approval rating spiked. With days left until the election, Trump’s opponents’ main argument had been defused and Trump was set to win big in the following elections.
The Persian Gulf Crisis had ended, and an uneasy peace was restored. Perhaps this form of multilateral, limited intervention could be a model for the future?