alternatehistory.com

On February 9, 1588, Álvaro de Bazán, 1st Marquess of Santa Cruz de Mudela, commander of the Spanish Armada, died of typhus. The old man, while one of the most successful Spanish captains of his day, had such few friends that only four men were present at his funeral. Subsequently, King Philip II appointed Don Alonso Pérez de Guizmán, Seventh Duke of Medina Sidonia, as Santa Cruz' successor. Medina Sidonia felt, with much justification, that he was a poor choice, having no experience at sea. But he was known to be a very pious man, which Philip felt was more important. This was a holy campaign, and the Lord would surely favor a fleet commanded by a righteous man against one composed of heretics and pirates. It is likely that Philip also wanted a commander who would not question his commands.

However, whatever his lack of nautical experience, Medina Sidonia had other skills. In particular, he was an expert at logistics, and swiftly set about the gargantuan task of organizing the Armada's supply train. He also assembled a capable staff, including Diego de Maldonado, Marolín de Juan, and Miguel de Oquendo (as he was then known).

As he began to understand the operation in more detail, Medina Sidonia's doubts grew. In particular, he became increasingly concerned over the difficulty in coordinating preparations between Spain and the Low Countries. Spain might have a powerful army in the Low Countries under the Duke of Parma, but they could not leave at a moment's notice. They would have to prepare for their departure, and while they were doing that, operations against the Dutch would be hampered. He was also concerned with the logistics of supplying the Armada for the voyage all the way from Spain to England, with no promise of support from France should the Armada face difficulty. And despite Santa Cruz' earlier insistence upon the importance of secrecy, the English were fully aware of the Armada's purpose, and were making preparations for the defense of England.

At this point, Medina Sidonia began to consider alternatives. Perhaps the simplest was obtaining assistance from France. It would be far easier to simply launch the Armada from French channel ports, after all. Another suggestion was to support an uprising among English Catholics, and use them to secure a landing site. But neither of these options was reliable. The French were embroiled in civil war, and there could be no guarantee of a successful uprising in England at the right time to be of assistance. However, there was another option: Ireland. With a base in Ireland, the communication gap between the Armada and Flanders would be cut in half. Irish troops could accompany the invasion. And even if the Armada failed to take England, Ireland would offer an excellent base to make another try.

It was this last point that Medina Sidonia emphasized in his historic letter to King Philip[1]. The conquest of Ireland would be an easy task for the Armada. The support of the Irish lords was all but assured. The 18,000 troops in the Armada would have little difficulty overwhelming the English garrison at Dublin. He also suggested that the English would be disheartened by the loss of Ireland. Philip - with some reluctance - approved, and the Ireland plan was made official.

At the same time, the plan had to be kept secret. Only the most senior officers of the fleet were informed of the change in plans. Most assumed that they would still be sailing for England. In the Spanish Netherlands, only Parma himself knew. For that matter, Parma still believed, as Medina Sidonia had suggested to Philip, that the invasion of Ireland would be swiftly followed by the invasion of England. Privately, Medina Sidonia was convinced that a significant delay would be needed.

The most important change in preparations was the importance of getting the Irish to commit to the plan. In April, Spanish agents contacted Turlough Luineach O'Neill, leader of the powerful O'Neill clan in Ulster, and Gráinne O'Malley [2], the infamous "Pirate Queen of Connacht". O'Malley would later claim that she figured out the truth before the Spanish brought her into their full confidences, although there is no independent confirmation of this. O'Neill made arrangements with other Irish lords, including his rival Hugh O'Neill [3], while O'Malley upgraded her ships.

On May 28, 1588 [4], the Armada set sail for Ireland. When the slow-moving fleet passed Galicia, Medina Sidonia dispatched a pinnace to alert the Irish to his progress [5]. This proved slightly premature, as the winds impeded Spanish progress. After the fleet was forced to Corunna to resupply, gales scattered several ships. Medina Sidonia wrote to Philip that "had Your Majesty not decreed that we should strike at Ireland instead of England, our cause would surely be hopeless now". It was only on July 10 that the fleet set sail once again.

On July 21, as the Armada approached the entrance to the English Channel, Medina Sidonia dispatched a squadron under command of Don Pedro de Valdés, with orders to harry the coast of southern England. This was a diversion, aimed at convincing the English not only that the invasion of England was imminent, but that southwest England would be the eventual target of the Spanish invasion rather than Kent. Valdés deliberately avoided any action with the English navy, although the Duquesa Santa Anna was sunk by English guns at Southampton. Valdés eventually rendezvoused with Parma in Flanders.

Ultimately, Valdés' diversion proved to be a mistake. Sir Francis Drake saw the raid for what it was: a raid, not a prelude to an invasion, and wrote to Queen Elizabeth of his suspicions. More importantly, rumors of a Spanish invasion triggered an uprising among English Catholics in Lancashire and Devon. Nearly 30,000 English troops under the Earl of Leicester were dispatched to put down the insurrection, dealing a serious blow to any hopes that English Catholics could play a significant role in the liberation of England.

But while Elizabeth's court was momentarily distracted by the Catholic uprising, the main force of the Armada sailed onward. On the morning of July 25, 1588, Spanish cannonballs slammed into St. Martin's Castle in Port Láirge [6]. By noon, Spanish troops were coming ashore in numbers. The Spanish Armada had landed in Ireland…

-----------------------------

[1] This is the point of divergence. While previous versions of the plan did involve an invasion of Ireland, by 1588 Philip had settled on a direct attack on England. IOTL, Medina Sidonia either never comes up with, or rejects, he notion of invading Ireland first.

[2] Actually Tordhealbhach Luineach Ó Néill and Gráinne Ní Mháille, but their names have been partly Anglicized.

[3] IOTL, Hugh O'Neill would succeed Turlough Luineach as "the O'Neill" in 1595, and go on to lead the Irish forces in the Nine Years' War.

[4] This date and others are using the Julian calendar, and are mostly OTL.

[5] IOTL, at this point Medina Sidonia sent a pinnace to report to Parma in the Low Countries.

[6] Waterford in English.