Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

ferdi254

Banned
The question is here that the USA has a much better position than the rest of the NATO, the FRG to start with. Even though I stand to my point that the WP would lose a conventional war in such a situation badly this would still entail half of the FRG effectively destroyed and Greek, Turkey, the Benelux, DK and Norway also would get serious damage. Again, until now a lot of conservative US politicians have not understood the concept of a glacis and that you pay for other countries that a war will be fought on their territory. So even if it is giving in to blackmail, for the FRG a "give us 50 Billion or the war will start" would be a perfect deal.

For knocking out the SS 20. I do not get what the plan here actually is. Those would be moving around in a case of a crisis with 40 km/h. Even if one could get the pérfect position and vector of all of them. relay this to subs and the subs fire and the rockets get to the estimated positions of the trucks, all in 15 min, all trucks, stopping, turning around, or racing away as fast as they can from the impact sites would be not knocked out. On the other hand suddenly two subs would be seen launching missiles unto the USSR. So I do not get it. If those subs launch while the war is conventional, this launch would make it hot, if it is already nuclear, what would it help? Knocking out 200 out of 30.000 nuclear warheads will not make any change.
 
sloreck- Well when we get to that part of the story you will see that the world knows real quick and from the horsemouth. Also Indira Ghandi is involved in the negotiations and she will have some influence on what is happening. But to some in the Politburo these demands are simply a negotiating stance while others are more serious.
 
ferdi254 Yes the SS-20's move around but the Soviet Union set up about four hundred specific launch sites for the SS-20's the ground was properly leveled to use the missile amongst other things to make better launch sites. Those missiles are actually much more targetable that most people realized. Although you will miss a lot of missiles you should get enough to cripple any attack on Western Europe.
 
@Farmer12 : The big issue with targeting/hitting the SS-20s is that if nuclear forces are targeted by your opposition you may find yourself in a "use them or lose them" situation. You don't want to do anything that would push the other side to pushing that big button, so the timing of taking these out is very tricky. Too soon, and you may start an "unnecessary" nuclear exchange, too late and they have flown.
 
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@fester : The big issue with targeting/hitting the SS-20s is that if nuclear forces are targeted by your opposition you may find yourself in a "use them or lose them" situation. You don't want to do anything that would push the other side to pushing that big button, so the timing of taking these out is very tricky. Too soon, and you may start an "unnecessary" nuclear exchange, too late and they have flown.
Not sure if I have been a part of this conversation
 
It is one thing to go after dual use platforms, like an aircraft carrier that can launch conventional or nuclear strikes, nuclear capable fighter bombers etc. Going after dedicated nuclear forces like SSBNs, airbases hosting B-52s or nuclear Bears (not the ASW/Maritime ones), or missiles mobile or other that have a primary nuclear role is very likely going to be seen as preparatory to launching a nuclear strike of your own. I would expect that going after SS-20s would only be done in the face of extremely firm intelligence they were about to be used and soon.
 
=sloreck- You would need to see that the SS-20's were moving into position or are in position. The only time that would happen would be if the Soviet Union was definite ready to use nukes. That is only way you could strike and they would do so working on the theory that the Americans and their allies would not go after the SS-20's
 
25/24July M+30
The Politburo were again back in session; the second demand of the hardliners was to be discussed and debated. The demand the Americans handover a large amount of grain as reparations to the Soviet Union as reparations for grain lost during the harvest due to Soviet troops and manpower now mobilized from the Collective farms. Romanov told the members of the Politburo that massive quantities of grain had been left in the field due labor shortages. Labor shortages caused by the mobilization of NATO. He conveniently forgot that the Soviet Union had mobilized first and that NATO had mobilized in response to the Soviet mobilization.

Gorbachev had a problem he had supported the mobilization of the troops and he also knew that the Soviet Union needed that grain and it did not have the money to pay for that grain. He also knew that more grain than the Soviet Union could produce was needed. In part to feed the people of the Soviet Union. But grain was also necessary to feed livestock that would be used to keep the level of meat production up. Meat that was used to maintain the moral of the people of the Soviet Union. To proclaim victory while having a meat shortage breakout because of not having the money to pay for the grain to feed the livestock would not go down well with the people of the Soviet Union.

He would argue that it would be better to borrow money from the Americans and possibly the Canadians to pay for the grain. But that was an argument that would not go down well with many on the Politburo. Romanovs comments were hitting the men on the Politburo hard. He was not pulling any punches and he was swaying the members of the Politburo.

When Romanov sat down, Gorbachev stood up and began to speak, he told the Politburo that to demand that the grain be handed over as an indemnity would be a mistake. He pointed out that they should be able to get excellent terms for a loan to purchase the grain. Ronald Reagan would not just handover the grain. That swayed some of the politburo but others were not convinced.

Romanov replied, **Going hat in hand to the American to borrow money to purchase grain when it was American intransigence that had caused the whole crisis. We have the right to demand that grain for free. The Americans were to one degree or another were involved in the assassination of Honecker. Remember they trained those assassins as snipers. ** Romanov then sat down.

Then a well-known moderate pointed out that demanding the grain would be a good idea. That while possibly the Americans refuse to hand the grain over, they might give in and that was worth taking the chance to gain the grain for free. That argument was something to consider, after they might not gain the grain but then again, the Americans might not want to fight a war if they could by the peace with grain. That argument swayed members of the politburo. There was more discussion of this demand but in the end the Politburo would decided that this demand would be included in the negotiations.

The Octogenarians of the Politburo, decided that they had done enough debating for the day and feeling tired they agreed to meet again the next day and then they would debate the next demand of the Hardliners. Gorbachev was not very happy about what was happening, by taking their time the Politburo was showing itself not concerned with world opinion. But what they were doing was making sure that they covered their asses. But he also knew pointing that out would not gain him any friends amongst the undecided of the Politburo.

Fulda Chuck Peterson was sitting in a bar quietly having a drink in the corner with some other officers he knew and on the TV was the news. One of the officers who spoke German gave a running interpretation of what was being said. The 40th infantry and the 49th Armored had arrived in Antwerp and there was camera footage showing the ships entering the port. Then the announcer went on to comment that the 1st Canadian mechanized infantry brigade was arriving in Rotterdam the tomorrow. Finally, the commentator noted that the fast convoy that had brought so much equipment to Europe would be leaving Boston today with another load of troops for Europe.

One of the officer commented, ** All the KGB needs to do to know what units and how equipment has arrived is to watch the news. ** The other officers nodded their heads in agreement but the press just did not seem to understand that the military need to keep secrets. Then another officer commented that the press, **When they are not telling the world how many troops are on the way. They spend their time looking for what has gone wrong and never ever talks about what is working, the bastards. ** That comment brought more nods and comments then the officers turned their attention to talking about whether the Russians would actually show up at the peace conference. Most of the officers were of the opinion that the Russians would show up. But the real question was when the troops would return to the Kasernes. Everyone had spent too much time in field and they were looking forward to comforts of home. The married men wanted to see their wives and children again. While the bachelor officers were thinking of a return to the normalcy of the peace time military routine. No one with half a brain wanted to go to war.

1pm Ottawa The Peace movement had been attacking everything about the crisis from the moving of the regular army units overseas to the organization of the two new brigades of troops. Pierre Trudeau had joined the Peace Movement and he was speaking at as many large events as possible. But the government had other problems where Pierre Trudeau was concerned. He had blackmailed the current government into making a series of political appointments. That meant while the Canadian people were not looking forward to the possibility of war. But the people of Canada were not forgetting the appointment that they felt should have waited until after the next elections.


Prime Ministers press secretary announced that the convoy that carried the 5th brigade to Norway would be back in Montreal on Sunday. He also announced that the 2nd brigade be moved to Montreal where the ships could be loaded. Under questioning he pointed out that one of the points of the agreement that had placed the tanks under the control of the Canadian government was that that Tank unit involved was to be sent to Europe. Since the battalion was part of the 2nd brigade. The whole brigade would be sent.

But the government announced that for the moment the 3rd brigade departure to Europe would be delayed. The press secretary announced that the Prime Minister would wait and see if the Soviet Union negotiated in good faith at the upcoming peace conference. Once that determination had been made then he would decide whether or not to send the 3rd brigade.

The press quickly made it clear that they opposed to the sending more troops to Europe, engaged in some harsh lines of questioning. But the press secretary stuck to his guns pointing out that agreements had been made and that since Canada had agreed to them. The Canadian Government had no choice but to send the brigade to Europe. The press secretary then announced that the American Convoy command had offered to ship the 3rd brigade to Europe on its RO/RO ships. But for the moment the Canadian Government had declined to accept the offer. But whether the 3rd brigade would go to Europe would depend on how the Soviet Union approached the upcoming negotiations.


10am Washington DC Senate Agriculture Committee.
Mike Harper arrived before the Committee, unlike some other committees this one was relatively bipartisan. The day before, the Democratic Leader of the House Agriculture Committee commented that Mike Harper was an excellent choice of the position of Secretary of Agriculture and no one on the Senate Agricultural Committee should opposed to him as the next Secretary of Agriculture. One news commentator had stated that despite all the ongoing turmoil between the Democrats and Republicans over Reagans handling of the current crisis. This appointment should be walked through the Senate. No one would oppose an ardent friend of the family farm, who had fought for the United States in two separate conflicts. His years of service in the National Guard showed his wiliness to sacrifice his personal time to serve the country.
 
Farmer 12 I take it from the M+30 that meas 30 plus days since Mobilization?
fudge I wonder how the economies of Europe are holding up under the kind of stresses millions plus men and women being mobilized for war?
Once agin you have me hooked sir keep up the excellent work.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Most of Europe was in that phase still under influence of the 80-82 recession. German army not mobilised was 0.5 mio fully mobilised 1.1 mio. Unemployment was upward 1.7 mio. Same relation for all of Europe so no negative consequences.
 
Short term no serious problems, but the additional spending for the military will have an effect on future budgets that is if no war happens.
 
Most of Europe was in that phase still under influence of the 80-82 recession. German army not mobilised was 0.5 mio fully mobilised 1.1 mio. Unemployment was upward 1.7 mio. Same relation for all of Europe so no negative consequences.
But in the very short run, the currently unemployed are not a frictionless replacement for the reservists called up. There will be dislocation and inefficiency as new folks come into jobs or things that reservists were doing are no longer getting done. The employers during the crisis will not want to incur the costs of hiring/training new people. If the crisis ends in a few weeks, the recruiting/training costs are wasted as the reservists are back on the job. If the crisis leads to war, the replacements are getting drafted anyways for the replacement battalions OR the factory is a glowing pile of glass anyways.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Of course it will be far from frictionless (a lot of reservists for example were students and will loose half a year) but the NATO is seriously better off than the WP especially with the GDR being in shambles.
 
fester- You make a good point about the call up of reserves and they will cause some dislocation. But with most companies it will be a man or woman here or there and no company is likely to be stripped of manpower. Most companies can cover gaps in the staffing with overtime except in the case of some specialist. But the mobilization will increase the cost of doing business.

ferdi451- good point about the students it will slow down their eventual graduation by as much as a year or so. Depending on how quickly they are demobilized.

Koenig von Poposia- Thank you i try to keep it interesting for you.
 
26/25 Jul M+31 9AM Rotterdam The Canadian 1st brigade arrived and the dockworkers immediately began to unload the ships. There were troops from the 1st brigade waiting to move the unit’s equipment to a position behind the NATO frontlines. Passenger planes from Air Canada had been arriving for the last few days and it would go on for a few day more.

1pm Moscow Romanov stood up and he immediately pointed out that the current crisis was draining billions upon billions of rubles from the Soviet economy. He stated emphatically that this money drain is the fault of the Western Alliance. The Soviet Union must demand recompense for those expenditures. Even now the cash reserves of the Soviet Union were being drained by the current crisis. He admitted that he did not know how badly. He then commented that unfortunately the economists who were preparing the briefing that will go into detail on what was happening would not be ready until next week. But we need to be prepare just in case the report tells us that the current situation is worse than we realize. I believe making this demand can be made and if the current situation is not as bad as I think then were and negotiate that demand away for concessions. That argument gained a positive reaction having a demand in place made sense. The idea of if the cashflow crunch was not as bad as Romanov said then the demand could be negotiated away.

Gorbachev reaction was simple he stated that if we start making demands for billions of dollars from the Western Allies. What will be their reaction, you know and I know that it will not be positive? The reality is that they will take a hard-line stance and possibly delay bringing an end to the crisis. We need this crisis over and playing games by demanding money from the Western Alliance.

One of the senior members of the Politburo commented once the report is in and we have time to digest the report we can negotiate the demand away from some kind of concessions from the West. I believe this is a win win situation. If we don’t demand the money from the first we will look pretty foolish if we suddenly demand money in the middle of the negotiations. I believe that making the demand and if we need it we can stand firm if we don’t then we can negotiate it away. For the rest of the Politburo the man’s logic made sense. It was a win win situation they could go whichever way the situation demanded. That sold the Politburo on the idea of demanding the reparations from the West.

2 pm London Margaret Thatcher was having one of her periodic briefings about the readiness of the UK armed forces. The Royal Navy was up first, they were happy to report that the Hermes with her two escorts were at sea and undergoing training. All the reports indicated that the training was having a positive effect with the crews of all three ships improving every day. The latest French nuclear attack submarine the Le Saphir was engaged in maneuvers with the Royal Navy ships. One of the officers quipped that the amount of noise she generated pretty closely duplicated the level of noise of a standard Soviet submarine. That meant the Le Saphir was truly realistic training for the sonar crews of the Royal Navy crews.

The refit of the Ashanti was happening but the age and poor condition of the ship was making the refit process slow going. In fact, the Royal Navy was reconsidering the idea of commissioning the Ashanti. But they had put off making the decision to stop working on the ship. Margaret Thatcher made her mind up if the Ashanti was not up to fighting then the refit should stopped.

Then the discussion went to the HMS Beaver, the dockyards were making every effort to ready the ship for service they hope to have the ship manned sometime in early August. One admiral commented that the ship will be manned but I don’t know if you could truly call her ready.

Then it was Royal Air Forces turn, the decision to not modify the twelve Phantoms handed over to RAF had meant those Phantoms would become operational sooner rather than later. They admitted that it would be better if the fighters were converted to RAF standards but as one officer pointed out. That once the crisis was over the fighters would be taken out of service so as a stop gap measure the plan was working.

The original fifteen Lightings had been reduced to thirteen, the briefer had commented that thirteen was a lucky number. He explained that when doing the necessary repairs cracks in the jets frame had been discovered and those two jets had been sent back to the scrapyard. The announcement was simple the thirteen Lighting would form a new squadron with twelve operations and the thirteenth Lighting was being held back as a replacement.

Then it was the British Armies turn the first division to come up for discussion was the 1st Airborne Division. The commentary was quite positive the efforts of the Airborne troops to bring the unit up to full combat readiness were impressive. The Airborne units were making regular training drops as well as almost constant field training. It was admitted that the division was weak on its support units but the Divisions leadership were making every effort to properly organized and trained the new support units. As for the divisions artillery it was in the best condition of all the division. The flying in of the two batteries of L118’s from the Falklands and British Honduras as well as the use of some Italian pack howitzers had made it possible to create the divisions artillery component. But it was still a bit on the weak side.


Then next division was the 5th Infantry division it now a fully mechanized division. One announcement was that the British Army had decided to strip Saracen APC’s from the Ulster constabulary to mechanized the last three infantry battalions of the division. Volunteers from the Ulster Constabulary filled out the crews and support personal for the APC's. It might cause some problem in unit organization but an additional mechanized infantry division would be of great use in Germany. As for the divisions artillery one regiment of L118’s was formed as well as on regiment of L122’s. The final battalion was made up of two L118 batteries and one L122 battery. It was a very ad hoc arrangement but at least the division was more or less combat ready with its support units coming together but the artillery component was extremely weak. In fact, the BBC who had been making cutting comments about the new divisions had been sent to look at the new 5th division. The Divisional commander had been very clever about the display, the Army readily admitted that some units were better prepared than other but none of the units were in as bad a state as the BBC portrayed and some were definite were much better.

The 6th Division was the next on the agenda. The division with only one tank battalion had a real weakness in the number of tanks in the division. As a result of the situation, the division was given a priority in receiving Swingfire antitank weapons and Wombats. The new recon battalion with it Saladan Armored Cars was coming together. But the division the support units were on the anemic side, the problem was less in manpower, there were large numbers of support personal in the reserves to fill in the ranks with some of the personal with the best records being promoted to fill in the gaps in leadership at the lower level with older retired personal filling in the upper level gaps. It was in middle level that was virtually empty. As for equipment the supply of equipment was minimal and mostly old and obsolete. The medical units were short of doctors, nurses and assorted specialist but equipment was not a problem since the Medical branch of the British Army simply raid the British Comprehensive Health System for the necessary supplies. While asking for volunteers to fill in the gaps in all the medical units of the new divisions. But the division was coming together.

The divisions artillery component was still being worked on but not all of the 25ponuders had been fully refitted. But every day a new gun was arriving while the crews were being trained and the necessary support equipment was being put together. Local fabricators near the division base were working on converting civilian vehicles and other machinery into needed equipment.

Finally there was the 43rd Wessex division, the progress of this division was slower than the previous divisions. But the division was smaller than the rest of the divisions with only two brigades and all the battalions were Territorial units. 43rd Wessex brigade, 1st Wessex Regt. (RIFLE Vol.), 2nd Wessex Regt. (Vol), 6(vol) Light Infantry, recce Royal Wessex Yeomanry using Land Rovers and the OP bty 266th Observation battery. The other brigade was the 160th Wales Brigade, 3rd (V) Royal Welch Fusiliers, 3rd (V) Royal Regiment of Wales, 4th Royal Regiment of Wales. Only seven battalions plus the observation battery.
The divisional commander had been hard at work putting a division together. He had moved the recce battalion from the 43rd brigade and turned it into a divisional unit while the soon to be organized Saladin battalion was also going to be a divisional unit.

At the same time the original plan had been modified. The equipment being sent from the training grounds in Canada was supposed to be used as replacements for battle losses. But the plans had been changed. The battalion of Chieftain and the mechanized battalion include the full complement of equipment including FV432’s. An independent territorial battalion had been chosen to be to convert into a mechanized unit the unit picked was the 3rd Yorkshire (Vol) to a mechanized battalion. After the decision had been made to form the 43rd Division it had been decided to form a new battalion of armor the 9th RTR. The equipment being shipped in from Canada would be handed over to the respective units. The territorial unit was having a good time training to become a mechanized unit. The officers and men were looking forward to being converted to a mechanized unit. They were applying themselves to the training regime and gaining compliments from their trainers. The officers of the 3 Yorkshire (vol) were making it clear to the men of their battalion they would be the infantry backbone of the divisions fire brigade. They would be sent into where the fire was hottest.



The 9th RTR was having more problems. The army was really scraping the bottom of the barrel. Newly trained crewmen were finding themselves being attached to the new battalion with officers and NCO’s bring given temporary promotions to fill out the upper ranks. But everyone agreed being assigned to a Chieftain armed battalion was better than being assigned to a Centurion battalion. The two units were training at Salisbury Plain with training stocks. The expectation was that by the 7th of August the two units would have received their actual equipment.



The support units of the division were also being formed with all the usual problems that the other divisions were facing but the briefer commented that the divisional Commander had been very aggressive in finding civilian products and equipment to fill in any gaps in equipment and supplies. Where they could existing territorial units fill in the gaps. Medical units were as usual under strength and other support units were being form out of whatever was available.

Right now, the only unit assigned to the Artillery of the division was the 266TH OP Battery. The divisions commanding general was also campaigning with the American officers who visited the division to get a brigade of Artillery attached the division ASAP. The Americans were reacting favorably to his requests. They had reported favorably on his division’s performance in training. The briefer also commented that despite the all the problems the new divisions were having the idea of using grouping of existing brigades and then filling in around those units was actually working.
 
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