Vatutin gets his way, Soviets attack early July 1943

[Deleted member 1487]

I'm listening to the audiobook of "Armor and Blood: the Battle of Kursk" by Dennis Showalter and he mentions how General Vatutin was pressuring Stalin to attack instead of wait for the Germans, as the German Kursk offensive was repeatedly delayed, pushing for an offensive in early July; Showalter apparently thinks that if Vatutin was able to meet with Stalin in person rather than talking to him via telephone he could have convinced him to attack instead of wait.

What if Vatutin had his chance to meet Stalin in person and convinces him to pre-empt the Germans by attacking on July 1st to catch them off guard? Since the Soviets planned on the primary arm of the German offensive being against the north face of the Kursk bulge the Soviets attack their first offensive would be against the Orel bulge, which would be followed up by attacks on the Mius and Belgorod-Kharkov fronts, mirroring OTL patten, but at this point allow for Orel to be attacked from within the Kursk bulge and north of the Orel bulge at the same time.

What sort of result could be expected by attacking first for the Soviets?

 

[iVC]

Bump, this is an interesting theme.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I might help if I get things rolling.
IMHO the Soviets get a bit of surprise by shifting to the offensive before Kursk, but overall are going to suffer worse than IOTL due to the intact Panzer and infantry divisions being able to fight on interior lines and without having to fight through mine fields and bunkers --- instead they have some on their side.

Given historic Soviet mishandling of the offensive and coordinating the attacks, against an intact defensive force operating on interior lines they will suffer a lot of damage even though they can attack from the south side of the Orel Bulge at the same time. More likely than not, rather than being able to lop off the bulge it gets squeezed out with most German units relatively intact, though battered. Likely the southern offensive is staggered like IOTL with the Mius operation coming first with the Germans having to transfer forces to Italy per OTL, as well as the Mius front. However unlike OTL the German infantry are not forced to defend a longer line beyond their prepared defenses at Belgorod, so are able to hold out and inflict more damage for longer and allowing the Panzer corps to return in enough time to organize rather than having to fight right off of the trains. I don't think the Soviets would be able to break through per OTL, but since they are starting sooner than IOTL they can rest up, refit, and renew the attack again in August per OTL, but with a more advanced position. The fighting in August is going to be very costly too, but likely the Soviets break through after also attacking against on the Mius front and overload AG-South with too many operations to counter with the given forces. Unlike OTL it is more likely that Axis forces are able to pull back in relatively good order and set up on the Dnieper, which could hold better than IOTL. In the Belarus area depending on how badly the two sides suffer relatively around Orel, the Soviets might advance then more slowly than IOTL.

Overall it was likely better to have waited than attack first, which Stalin may well react badly to when he sees the losses that are caused, which may make him more cautious going forward.