WI: Saudi Arabia joins the Axis

[A Piece of History]

During World War II, Saudi Arabia was the largest source of crude oil in the world. It was strategically located next to Vichy France-controlled Syria, Axis-aligned Iraq and bordered four British territories-Palestine, Yemen, Kuwait and the Trucial States (what would eventually become the United Arab Emirates).

Hitler had a great interest in the Middle East, seeing the Arabs as powerful allies against England, France and on a more ideological basis, the Jews, going so far as to meet with Amin al-Husseini, arguably the most influential Arab to align himself with the Nazis in our timeline.

However, he also met on at least one occasion with Khalid al-Hud al-Gargani, special envoy of Ibn Saud, in which he detailed the reasons for the Nazis' warm feelings towards the Arabs, mostly talking about their shared hatred of the Jews.

In our timeline, Saudi Arabia would declare war on Nazi Germany in 1945.

But what if in a alternate timeline, in 1940-1941, Hitler, intent on exploiting the country for it's oil reserves and strategic location, successfully convinced Saudi Arabia's government to declare war on Britain, thereby creating a chain of Axis-aligned or dominated countries in the Middle East to conquer British territories in the Arabian peninsula, including Palestine?

 

[Arkenfolm]

Allies find some sheikhs and other local leaders who hate the Sauds, and funnels them support for a rebellion until they can intervene in force. End result is a partitioned Arabia with no Sauds.

 

[Astrodragon]

Britain wasn't taking oil from Saudi, it was coming from Iran via Abadan.
I think you have your countries mixed up.

 

[RodentRevolution]

During World War II, Saudi Arabia was the largest source of crude oil in the world.

Saudi largest source of oil in World War 2? I think you have created an alternate history just by this statement.

The US was by far the biggest producer of crude oil at the time due to having fully exploited fields and technological and capital resources advantages. The Saudis were a long, long way from their post war heights.

 

[thaddeus]

the oil was coming from Iran (as @Astrodragon pointed out) and Iraq, both governments were quickly replaced when it suited Allied side.

think there is some fertile ground for Nazi regime among Arab nationalists but Germany was allied with Italy, which had obvious colonial aims, and friendly with Turkey, which had claims on (at least) parts of Syria and Iraq? throw in Vichy French mandate over Syria?

not sure how Germany could navigate between all those competing interests without Bismarck? (the person, not the ship)

 

[nbcman]

Britain wasn't taking oil from Saudi, it was coming from Iran via Abadan.
I think you have your countries mixed up.

Saudi largest source of oil in World War 2? I think you have created an alternate history just by this statement.

The US was by far the biggest producer of crude oil at the time due to having fully exploited fields and technological and capital resources advantages. The Saudis were a long, long way from their post war heights.

Very true. Here is a link to a League of Nations report of various economic categories. Page 128 has a listing of crude oil production. Saudi Arabia produced 727,000 metric tons in 1940 compared to Iran 10,426,000 and the US 182,657,000.

 

[Clandango]

Would Iraq stay loyal and/or quite? I am thinking... Nejd for Iraq, Hejaz for Jordan, Kuwait keeps their coastline tripled, etc. though withtou the coast it would be difficult getting to Nejd.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Would Iraq stay loyal and/or quite? I am thinking... Nejd for Iraq, Hejaz for Jordan, Kuwait keeps their coastline tripled, etc. though withtou the coast it would be difficult getting to Nejd.

The Hejaz for Jordon makes sense; that's the traditional Hashmite lands so putting it back under their control flies nicely. But Baghdad keeping control of that desert and Kuwait willingly flooding itself with Shiites? You're trying to "reward" them with blatantly toxic and unholdable territories.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Would Iraq stay loyal and/or quite? I am thinking... Nejd for Iraq, Hejaz for Jordan, Kuwait keeps their coastline tripled, etc. though withtou the coast it would be difficult getting to Nejd.

Depends what the local leaders want. Hejaz gets restored (maybe not under Jordan but still obviously Hashemite). Yemen gets Asir/areas disputed with Saudi Arabia which the Saudis got after the war with Yemen. Nejd becomes a new state under some local tribal ruler who betrays the Sauds. It will keep the coast, but Qatar and Kuwait will get some border adjustments in their favor. Jordan and Iraq will also get some better borders.

The Hejaz for Jordon makes sense; that's the traditional Hashmite lands so putting it back under their control flies nicely. But Baghdad keeping control of that desert and Kuwait willingly flooding itself with Shiites? You're trying to "reward" them with blatantly toxic and unholdable territories.

Kuwait IIRC did claim a certain amount of coast to their south, so in some ways it makes sense.

 

[Clandango]

The Hejaz for Jordon makes sense; that's the traditional Hashmite lands so putting it back under their control flies nicely. But Baghdad keeping control of that desert and Kuwait willingly flooding itself with Shiites? You're trying to "reward" them with blatantly toxic and unholdable territories.

Indeed, hence my badly worded thing about difficulty withtou a coast. Probably should have specified Iraq. And I actually wonder, but does anyone know if the British knew of the differences between the Sunni and Shia? Seems a lot of groups classified as Shia were also rather ethnically separate form their neighbors. I am wondering if they would think the Arabs of the Gulf were just like any other Arab? Also, anyone know if the British had ports on those two large islands Kuwait has? I am wondering if the Brits would downsize their holdings at some point, maybe keep bases there.

 

[jerseyguy]

The British troops leave their bases in the Gulf, and replace the Saudi King with a more compliant monarch as their puppet. This wouldn't be much different from Iran during WW2.

 

[Alanith]

The House of Saud suffers a fatal, nay, terminal accident, when British Troops occupy the country. And quite literally *nothing* of value was lost.

 

[Analytical Engine]

IIRC, Bahrain had a historic claim to a large portion of Saudi's eastern coast. Oman gets control over the Empty Quarter.

The interior probably gets left to its own devices.

 

[hipper]

During World War II, Saudi Arabia was the largest source of crude oil in the world. It was strategically located next to Vichy France-controlled Syria, Axis-aligned Iraq and bordered four British territories-Palestine, Yemen, Kuwait and the Trucial States (what would eventually become the United Arab Emirates).

Hitler had a great interest in the Middle East, seeing the Arabs as powerful allies against England, France and on a more ideological basis, the Jews, going so far as to meet with Amin al-Husseini, arguably the most influential Arab to align himself with the Nazis in our timeline.

However, he also met on at least one occasion with Khalid al-Hud al-Gargani, special envoy of Ibn Saud, in which he detailed the reasons for the Nazis' warm feelings towards the Arabs, mostly talking about their shared hatred of the Jews.

In our timeline, Saudi Arabia would declare war on Nazi Germany in 1945.

But what if in a alternate timeline, in 1940-1941, Hitler, intent on exploiting the country for it's oil reserves and strategic location, successfully convinced Saudi Arabia's government to declare war on Britain, thereby creating a chain of Axis-aligned or dominated countries in the Middle East to conquer British territories in the Arabian peninsula, including Palestine?

No it was not Ghawar was discovered in 1943.

 

[mike of mass]

This would be as big a blunder for the saudis as the Ottoman declaring for the entente was. The Germans would not have been able to provide enough men and material to protect the saudis from the British. while the the Brits were preoccupied with many fronts, they were still able to put down the Iraqui revolt and no doubt could have enticed/bribed the Saudis many regional enemies into destroying them. Here's a wild idea. Have a corp of Indian Muslim troops take the hejaz away from the Saudis. What does this do to the future of Islam, pan-arabism and the Shia/Sunni divide if nonarab muslims are now the custodians of the holy cities?

 

[Ian_W]

During World War II, Saudi Arabia was the largest source of crude oil in the world.

<stuff snipped>

But what if in a alternate timeline, in 1940-1941, Hitler, intent on exploiting the country for it's oil reserves and strategic location, successfully convinced Saudi Arabia's government to declare war on Britain, thereby creating a chain of Axis-aligned or dominated countries in the Middle East to conquer British territories in the Arabian peninsula, including Palestine?

Apart from the fact that Saudi Arabia wasn't anywhere near the largest source of crude oil in the world in 1940-41, you can't get Saudi oil anywhere unless you control the Suez Canal.

If the House of Saud is dumb enough to declare for the Nazis, the British declare support for, say, the Emir of Kuwait and the Saudis get deposed, just like Rashid Ali in Iraq in 1941.

 

[Kaze]

Looks like I have a new Hearts of Iron campaign. I will post the results.

 

[jerseyguy]

This would be a good minor POD to change the government of Saudi Arabia during a WW2 atl. Short of a meteor hitting the royal palace in Riyadh (asb), this is probably the most plausible POD to accomplish it. Almost any form of government would be better than the current monarchy that abuses its custodianship of the holy cities and oil money to spread its toxic wahhabist theology.

 

[Arkenfolm]

This would be a good minor POD to change the government of Saudi Arabia during a WW2 atl. Short of a meteor hitting the royal palace in Riyadh (asb), this is probably the most plausible POD to accomplish it. Almost any form of government would be better than the current monarchy that abuses its custodianship of the holy cities and oil money to spread its toxic wahhabist theology.

The question is what happens in the Nejd after the war. It's too small, desolate and poor to be its own country without the coastline which has the vast majority of the oil. And Nejd happens to be the heartland of the Wahhabi tribes. Does another member of the House of Saud get to keep this as a rump Saudi Arabia? Or is it given to a local sheikh who may well be Wahhabi himself?

 

[Clandango]

The question is what happens in the Nejd after the war. It's too small, desolate and poor to be its own country without the coastline which has the vast majority of the oil. And Nejd happens to be the heartland of the Wahhabi tribes. Does another member of the House of Saud get to keep this as a rump Saudi Arabia? Or is it given to a local sheikh who may well be Wahhabi himself?

I say we look over Omniatlas at the various tribes that were down there, and then see if there were survivors for some of the leading families. It is almost a shame that the Hejaz is the easiest area to carve up, as the Saudis might continue to get away with having Nejd. Also, I imagine it would be best if the British got the Arabs to do a lot of this conquering. Apparently there was some Ikhwan group in the north, around where the Saudi, Iraqi, and Jordan borders now are (they hadn't decided other borders back then) who were ideological allies of the Saudis and raided into Iraq. Maybe have this piss off the Iraqis, though I think even they would just want a buffer zone. Maybe The British try setting up something similar to Anglo-Agyptian Sudan? The last thing the British want is to start sending a hundred thousand of their own men to try fighting in these deserts. And it will anger Arabs who don't want it fight. Plus if they send off people loyal to them (like how the Nazis sent off the local SS and fascist military organization from occupied places to fight on the Eastern Front) you end up with people loyal to you no longer being around to keep order or build support at their homes. Of course, as mentioned earlier on this page, Saudi oil wasn't anything too major at this point. I recall it was discovered by American companies, and read once that Arabs may have murdered some American diplomats in the area (though the source I read it in was a bit rightwingish, it isn't the sort of thing you can fake. They might have, though,). Getting Americans to come to the area would be helpful, if it wasn't so far away from American bases and supply lines. Especially since they were procuring most of the worlds oil themselves at that time. We would need a lot of atrocities to justify it tot he American public.