The teutonic order lives on.

[Gukpard]

First of all, I suggest this video because it masterfully explains the rise of Prussia and also the history of the teutonic order:

The PoD is that the battle of Grunewald ends on a decisive Teutonic victory, the King Sigismund the old is killed in action and the polish-lithuan forces are routed. The Teutonic order secures a peace deal connecting the Livonian territories with the prussian ones and while Poland can recover and challenge the order again in the future, the order is now on a secure position to keep their gains. My question is: What happens after that? Does the house Von Preussen still dissolvers the order and create a Expanded Kingdom of Prussia? Or even maybe a Kingdom of Prussia and the baltic, or a east germanic confederation? Does the order remains in power and the state becomes a de facto and de jure stratocracy? And the baltics? In Our timeline the baltic peoples are seem as their own ethnic-linguistic group, far from the slavs and the germans, does they become a germanic people on this scenario? And the long therm effects, like the Rise of Russia and the german unification? Could Poland be split between the teutonic order/the kingdom of Prussia, or the russians would also absord the order?

 

[krieger]

DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD Sigismund the Old wasn't even alive during the battle of Grunwald. The king of Poland during that battle was his grandfather, Władysław Jagiełło. And even if Jagiełło is killed during the action, the Council of Polish nobles still have possibilites to act against the Order. Battle of Grunwald was on Prussian territory. So before TO can attack Poland it need to take back the territories, which Poland gained before. The heir of Jagiełło at that point is a little girl named Hedwig. She is the greatgrandaughter of Casimir the Great. Polish nobles can promise her hand to someone who would be able to send troops against TO. And there wasn't any House von Preussen. There was House of Hohenzollern and dissolution of TO similar to OTL is impossible. Albrecht Hohenzollern, the creator of the idea was himself descendant of Jagiełło's son, King Casimir IV, who isn't even alive at that point. There wasn't any unified Russia also at that point. And what about Prince Vytautas, the Jogaila's cousin? If he is still alive, than he can take the throne in both Poland and Lithuania. The survival of TO was only possible if they had more human resources than Poland. And they lacked it.

 

[TimTurner]

DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD Sigismund the Old wasn't even alive during the battle of Grunwald. The king of Poland during that battle was his grandfather, Władysław Jagiełło. And even if Jagiełło is killed during the action, the Council of Polish nobles still have possibilites to act against the Order. Battle of Grunwald was on Prussian territory. So before TO can attack Poland it need to take back the territories, which Poland gained before. The heir of Jagiełło at that point is a little girl named Hedwig. She is the greatgrandaughter of Casimir the Great. Polish nobles can promise her hand to someone who would be able to send troops against TO. And there wasn't any House von Preussen. There was House of Hohenzollern and dissolution of TO similar to OTL is impossible. Albrecht Hohenzollern, the creator of the idea was himself descendant of Jagiełło's son, King Casimir IV, who isn't even alive at that point. There wasn't any unified Russia also at that point. And what about Prince Vytautas, the Jogaila's cousin? If he is still alive, than he can take the throne in both Poland and Lithuania. The survival of TO was only possible if they had more human resources than Poland. And they lacked it.

Could the TO get allies?

 

[krieger]

Could the TO get allies?

I think that emperor Sigismund of Luxembourg could use the situation and attack Poland. On the other hand, his forces were already defeated by Poles in battle of Bardiow, so I don't know what would he do. We need also remember that Sigismund of Luxembourg was descendant of Casimir the Great (and Lithuanian princess Aldona Anna) himself, so he could claim emptied throne of Poland for himself (and if Vytuatas dies, Lithuanian too, to some extent). My opinion can be biased, however so I summon @Augenis and @Jan Olbracht to the discussion.

 

[alexmilman]

First of all, I suggest this video because it masterfully explains the rise of Prussia and also the history of the teutonic order:

The PoD is that the battle of Grunewald ends on a decisive Teutonic victory, the King Sigismund the old is killed in action and the polish-lithuan forces are routed.

Jagiello, not Sigismund but it would not matter.

The Teutonic order secures a peace deal connecting the Livonian territories with the prussian ones

It already had Samogitia by Peace of Raciąż (1404). The whole enchilada started with the an uprising in Teutonic-held Samogitia in 1409, which Lithuania supported. Then Poland supported Lithuania and threatened to invade Prussia. Teutonic Grand Master Ulrich von Jungingen evacuated Samogitia and declared war on the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania on 6 August 1409.

The problem was not in getting a connecting piece of land but in keeping it in peace which was quite difficult due to the combination of 2 factors: (a) an idea of "law and order" was something quite alien to the local tribes and (b) the said tribes had been almost openly incited by Lithuania.

and while Poland can recover and challenge the order again in the future, the order is now on a secure position to keep their gains.

Well, the "gains" part is quite tricky and questionable. The whole situation was a byproduct of a forced (by the Pope) merge of the Livonian Brothers of the Sword with the Teutonic Order. As a result, the Teutonic Order had been saddled with the autonomous branch, Livonian Order, which had very convoluted borders, historic quarrels with (at least) Archbishop of Riga and regular problems on the Eastern border (Novgorodian Republic). Arguably, Teutonic order would be much better off without these "gains". Especially taking into an account that in 1409 Vitold concluded a separate peace with Livonian Order thus avoiding war on 2 fronts.

My question is: What happens after that? Does the house Von Preussen still dissolvers the order and create a Expanded Kingdom of Prussia?

There could be any number of butterflies but the Order was more or less doomed both due to its internal conflicts with the cities and nobility of Prussia (who ended up supporting Poland) and because of the coming Reformation.

In Our timeline the baltic peoples are seem as their own ethnic-linguistic group, far from the slavs and the germans, does they become a germanic people on this scenario?

Which of these people? The cities were German-speaking all the way to the late XIX, the nobility was German-speaking and nobody cared about the language the peasants had been using among themselves.

And the long therm effects, like the Rise of Russia and the german unification?

"Russia" or "Prussia"? Anyway, Teutonic Order as a Catholic monastic organization hardly could survive in the midst of a Protestant area.

Could Poland be split between the teutonic order/the kingdom of Prussia, or the russians would also absord the order?

Russian Empire ended with the possession of the territories that belonged to the Livonian Order and as of now Russian Federation is in a possession of a part of the territory that belonged to the Teutonic Order. [/QUOTE]

 

[Dave Howery]

the one book I have that discusses the Teutonic Order describes them as a pretty brutal bunch, particularly with the summer and winter 'reysa' raiding into the Baltics, appalling slaughters of pagans (which continued even after they weren't pagans anymore), etc. If true, then a TO victory at Grunwald is likely to be really bad news for the Baltics peoples...

 

[cmakk1012]

Which of these people? The cities were German-speaking all the way to the late XIX, the nobility was German-speaking and nobody cared about the language the peasants had been using among themselves.

I suspect it’s one of those “overlord” scenarios like Italian in Dalmatia or German in Posen where it’s just the city centers’ nobility that were German speaking and everyone else spoke the local languages.

 

[Janprimus]

IOTL the Teotonic Order still exists, with the main Catholic branch with headquarters in Vienna and the smaller Protestant branch with one in Utrecht.
The Order state got secularized, but the Order itself did survive the Reformation.

 

[alexmilman]

I suspect it’s one of those “overlord” scenarios like Italian in Dalmatia or German in Posen where it’s just the city centers’ nobility that were German speaking and everyone else spoke the local languages.

OK, let's clarify. What I was talking about were "city citizens" - people with the full rights of <whatever>. They were not only the nobles but merchants, members of the guilds, etc. Most of the rest could speak German or a mixture of German and native language but they'd have to know enough of German to communicate with their employers and socially betters. But if person wanted to become "somebody" he would have to speak German. OTOH, the peasants most probably were predominantly native speakers while their owners spoke German.

 

[alexmilman]

IOTL the Teotonic Order still exists, with the main Catholic branch with headquarters in Vienna and the smaller Protestant branch with one in Utrecht.
The Order state got secularized, but the Order itself did survive the Reformation.

Yes, you are right but conversation was about the Order as a state.

 

[Gukpard]

Ok, sorry for the delay, I had little time to answer it.

The problem was not in getting a connecting piece of land but in keeping it in peace which was quite difficult due to the combination of 2 factors: (a) an idea of "law and order" was something quite alien to the local tribes and (b) the said tribes had been almost openly incited by Lithuania.

Based on how the order worked, they would be integrated by force. The ones who refused to convert and join the local order sadly would be crushed. After this horrible process the baltics would be firmly under teuton control.

There could be any number of butterflies but the Order was more or less doomed both due to its internal conflicts with the cities and nobility of Prussia (who ended up supporting Poland) and because of the coming Reformation.

I said that this can be considered, the order can be dissolved. The important is the continuation of the state.

"Russia" or "Prussia"? Anyway, Teutonic Order as a Catholic monastic organization hardly could survive in the midst of a Protestant area.

Russia. As the Russians begin to move west how the teutons or prussians would react to them?

 

[alexmilman]

Ok, sorry for the delay, I had little time to answer it.



Based on how the order worked, they would be integrated by force. The ones who refused to convert and join the local order sadly would be crushed. After this horrible process the baltics would be firmly under teuton control.

It is all correct and would work if the TO had unlimited time and no external interference. In OTL it had neither. Lithuania immediately took the side of the Samogitians and Poland backed up Lithuania. The TO even had to evacuate the area to mobilize its forces.

I said that this can be considered, the order can be dissolved. The important is the continuation of the state.

"State" in its existing form had serious internal problems even after the loss of "Royal Prussia" and I'm not quite sure how state could be "continued" if the order is dissolved: dissolution meant appearance of a new entity (as in OTL) on a former order's territory (actually, "entities").

Russia. As the Russians begin to move west how the teutons or prussians would react to them?

You mean population of the former TO's territories? Well, they were not excessively happy with what armies of Ivan IV had been doing in Livonia.

 

[Sirdragon]

Ok, sorry for the delay, I had little time to answer it.



Based on how the order worked, they would be integrated by force. The ones who refused to convert and join the local order sadly would be crushed. After this horrible process the baltics would be firmly under teuton control.



I said that this can be considered, the order can be dissolved. The important is the continuation of the state.



Russia. As the Russians begin to move west how the teutons or prussians would react to them?

If I had to guess the Teutonic order would Ally Russia to crush the common wealth.

 

[Pelranius]

OK, let's clarify. What I was talking about were "city citizens" - people with the full rights of <whatever>. They were not only the nobles but merchants, members of the guilds, etc. Most of the rest could speak German or a mixture of German and native language but they'd have to know enough of German to communicate with their employers and socially betters. But if person wanted to become "somebody" he would have to speak German. OTOH, the peasants most probably were predominantly native speakers while their owners spoke German.

Weren't the burghers of the Ordenstaat allied with the Poles in one of their revolts against the TO (I think one of Copernicus's uncles was one of their leaders)?

 

[alexmilman]

Weren't the burghers of the Ordenstaat allied with the Poles in one of their revolts against the TO (I think one of Copernicus's uncles was one of their leaders)?

Not only burghers but non-Order nobility as well. AFAIK, Copernicus uncle was a Bishop of Warmia so he had restrained relations with the TO "by definition".