Map Thread XVIII

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Russia ISOT
Hmmm. Seeing this actually mapped out makes me realize that this will result in an empowered EU (no more Russia to hold them back and no doubt with a time of relative prosperity incoming since they now control the oil) and an expanded US bearing down on China hard. China's not going to accept this in any way shape or form and this will probably cause Xi Jinping to kick One Belt One Road into overdrive mode. China will probably support and assist Kazakhstan to secure the oil fields before the Europeans can grab them ("After all," China says in public, "Russia traded with more than just Europe. Why not allow a "neutral" party control the oil and write new treaties to provide to everyone?") China will probably move to solidify influence over Central Asia in a manner much more aggressively than before while Kazakhstan rapidly moves into China's sphere, seeing what they have to gain from it. China will likely go on a diplomatic blitz, trying to win over oil-producing countries into a stance of solidarity aimed at encircling and reigning in a more ambitious and unchecked EU. Once Kazakhstan has the oil (or as much of it as they can grab), China and Kazakhstan will likely try to create a rival trading and immigration bloc composed of other interested countries along the old Silk Road. This will likely include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, and potentially Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia (I can't imagine the EU and the countries of the Caucasus developing a much better relationship than 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss', particularly with an emboldened Ukraine). Turkey will be courted. Iran will find themselves simultaneously on a dangerous precipice and with the opportunity of a lifetime: China's expansion will scare them and the EU is dropping sanctions, but moving into China's sphere unless the EU materially supports them in opposing American sanctions will be the ultimate middle finger to the US. India will likely hop right into the Western bloc as China tightens their grip over East Africa and uses that to manipulate trade around the Indian Rim.

It's hard to say exactly what the US would do. The Trump administration is chaotic by nature and though many in the White House would be eager to reign China in, many also have business interests in China, and the general disarray of things could really lead to any outcome. Ultimately, I think the US would strengthen its stance against China and work to reaffirm its alliance with Europe; the question is how long that would take. It would certainly be hastened if China tries to more aggressively extend influence into the Americas, say by intervening in Nicaragua to hasten the construction of a rival canal.

The world would certainly rebalance itself and the disappearance of Russia is a little bit too great of a gift to Europe and the US for the rest of the world to simply let the West regain total global hegemony.
 
Did someone say Super Chinook-wawa Canada wank?


no? Well I'll just leave this here then

Supercan.png
 

KapiTod

Banned
Canadian Taiwan?

'Silver Spring' is a great select for a city name there, too. Sounds equally like a Canadian place name and a directly translated East Asian place name.

It also makes sense because China was a major market for sea otter pelts.

The fact there's not a town called Otter City is an insult to the adorable sacrifices made to make cozy hoods for rich women o7
 
It's certainly a different Canada, but it's definitely a neat one.

Many thanks!

Is that ... Taiwan?

Well, in 1600, it was pretty open to possibilities of who owned it

It's all warm water ports.

[Need for Alsace-Lorraine intensifies]

Canadian Taiwan?

'Silver Spring' is a great select for a city name there, too. Sounds equally like a Canadian place name and a directly translated East Asian place name.

It also makes sense because China was a major market for sea otter pelts.

The fact there's not a town called Otter City is an insult to the adorable sacrifices made to make cozy hoods for rich women o7

The PoD I had in mind was England getting unlucky in the Americas and India, and instead monopolizing the China trade. Lacking other materials, the English trade fur pelts from the Pacific Northwest, and eventually the Coastal Salish People end up pulling a Maori and expanding.
 

KapiTod

Banned
The PoD I had in mind was England getting unlucky in the Americas and India, and instead monopolizing the China trade. Lacking other materials, the English trade fur pelts from the Pacific Northwest, and eventually the Coastal Salish People end up pulling a Maori and expanding.

That explains the Hudson Bay Company borders. I'm assuming they've essentially come to dominate British North Pacific/North American trade interests to such an extent that this becomes the territorial boundaries of the "Salish" national identity due to the British using them as agents for pushing into the American interior and a large number of them joining crews to China and settling on that very convenient island.
 
Another Way WWII.png
Here's a map of my TL's alt WWII between the New Roman Empire (Italy, France, Austria, Bohemia, Yugoslavia, Nationalist China Mexico and Russia) against the Allies of Europe (or, simply the allies) (Britain, Ireland, Germany, Poland, Hungary, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Greece, Bulgaria, Spain, Portugal, Romania, Persia, Turkey, Arabia, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Finnobaltica, Lithuania, and just after this map, USA) at the greater extent of the former. The war is about to turn against the Italians, for they made the foolish decision to ally with Mexico, who then decides to attack the USA so they can get to Canada. I'm not sure why the Mexicans hated Canada.
 

Skallagrim

Banned

I see your views, and I again agree that such an outcome is definitely possible. It's not that different from what others have suggested. I do think tht you're all inclined to expect things to happen rationally. What you and others suggest is the smartest and sanest approach. It's reasonable.

My view remains that in the face of unprecedented supernatural events with global ramifications, reasons goes out the window. Ultimately, our different "predictions" here boil down to differing expectations of how human beings would generally react to such a thing. I'm quite content to represent the more pessimistic view here, with the full admission that I know it's just one view among several others.


Hmmm. Seeing this actually mapped out makes me realize that this will result in an empowered EU (no more Russia to hold them back and no doubt with a time of relative prosperity incoming since they now control the oil) and an expanded US bearing down on China hard. China's not going to accept this in any way shape or form and this will probably cause Xi Jinping to kick One Belt One Road into overdrive mode. China will probably support and assist Kazakhstan to secure the oil fields before the Europeans can grab them ("After all," China says in public, "Russia traded with more than just Europe. Why not allow a "neutral" party control the oil and write new treaties to provide to everyone?")

Don't expect China to be a hyper-power that can be everywhere at once. Straight-up rolling in and annexing the oil- and gasfields in the East, as well as Manchuria-and-then-some, and taking Mongolia directly to finish the whole thing, is already a huge undertaking. China will no doubt back Kazakhstan economically and diplomatically, but consider that Kazakhstan will be able to get pretty vast gains (esp. compared to its own 'weight') even without China. Kazakhstan won't feel the pressing need to become a Chinese client just to get a bit more of former Russia. More likekly, they'll try to play the West off against China, trying to get the best offer from either party without having to give up much themselves.

China will no doubt have demands such as you suggesdt, but NATO will just point to China's own, ah, "enthousiastic" actions of expansion, and then proceed to ignore Chinese demands. It will be clear to everyone that all parties will just have to take what they can defend, and then come together to decide on final borders. What you describe are China's wishes, but those are way bigger than China's actual geopolitical reach.

This brings me to address your final point (a bit out of order in my replies, sorry) because it ties into this:

The world would certainly rebalance itself and the disappearance of Russia is a little bit too great of a gift to Europe and the US for the rest of the world to simply let the West regain total global hegemony.

You operate on the assumption that things like these are based on what's fair. I'd urge you to discard that notion at once. It's a bit like thinking that Spain in 1550 should really give more of the americas to the other powers, because what they have is "a little bit too great of a gift to them".

In truth, China will grab what it can (which, by my estimation, is pretty much what's shown here) and afterwards try to set up a coalition of Eurasian states opposed to NATO hegemony. In fact, there's a bit more to this, and I'll get into that below. But for the moment, let's just say that I'm fairly sure NATO will not care for "balance", and will grab whatever it can.


China will probably move to solidify influence over Central Asia in a manner much more aggressively than before while Kazakhstan rapidly moves into China's sphere, seeing what they have to gain from it. China will likely go on a diplomatic blitz, trying to win over oil-producing countries into a stance of solidarity aimed at encircling and reigning in a more ambitious and unchecked EU. Once Kazakhstan has the oil (or as much of it as they can grab), China and Kazakhstan will likely try to create a rival trading and immigration bloc composed of other interested countries along the old Silk Road.

I agree with the general strategy as outlined, with the caveat that Kazakhstan will play both sides against each other first, and won't be in a position to get to the oil and gas in central Russia. Mostly because NATO will put forces there at once. If not to exploit the wilderness (which won't be possible for years yet), then to militarily secure the region for itself. I imagine a horizontal line on the map (as shown) with NATO saying to Kazakhstan: everything south of this line is yours, with our full recognition and support. But set foot north of it, and we will withdraw that recognition... and you'll be at war with all of NATO.

Kazakhstan will accept that, because it's actually a lot of all-you can grab with no competition-- and this allows them to focus on expanding westward while leaving northward expansion for later. Why? Because in the west, they're competing with Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Having a NAO guarantee for their northern claims is very handy, then! (And the unpleasant alternative is not worth it.)


This will likely include Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, and potentially Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia (I can't imagine the EU and the countries of the Caucasus developing a much better relationship than 'meet the new boss, same as the old boss', particularly with an emboldened Ukraine). Turkey will be courted. Iran will find themselves simultaneously on a dangerous precipice and with the opportunity of a lifetime: China's expansion will scare them and the EU is dropping sanctions, but moving into China's sphere unless the EU materially supports them in opposing American sanctions will be the ultimate middle finger to the US. India will likely hop right into the Western bloc as China tightens their grip over East Africa and uses that to manipulate trade around the Indian Rim.

This is to be fully expected, and in fact, as it becomes clear just how much the West has really gained, this movement will gain more traction rapidly. Personally, I think Georgia and Armenia can be courted into the Western camp (EU membership is a lot more attractive than playing second - or actually more like twentieth - fiddle to China). As the EU will be vastly emboldened, they'll be able to take a firmer stance with Erdogan, meaning Turkey drops all ambitions to maybe join the EU and sides with the "Pan-Asian" group instead. Iran, I expect, will likewise join this Chinese-led coalition.

India, indeed, will join the Western bloc just to stay out of China's clutches.

Here we get back to China's strategy, since you mention East Africa. I think that with gaining effective control over vast parts of former Russia, and building up a new Russian nation-state, the Western powers will be very busy for quite some time. Rather than fight the West over former Russia, I think China will do the way smarter thing, and "just" buy up pretty much all of Africa while the West is otherwise engaged. Result: fifty years later, all or nearly all of Africa is in the Chinese sphere. Quite possibly substantial parts of South America, too.

Suddenly, the "Eastern" coalition doesn't look as weak anymore. In fact, at this point, it's no longer Eastern. The post-colonial tendency to divide the would into a "global North" and a "global South" has become rather accurate. The EU and US (although joined by India and Oceania) represent the North, whereas China leads the South. Both sides will actually be rather equally matched.


It's hard to say exactly what the US would do. The Trump administration is chaotic by nature and though many in the White House would be eager to reign China in, many also have business interests in China, and the general disarray of things could really lead to any outcome. Ultimately, I think the US would strengthen its stance against China and work to reaffirm its alliance with Europe; the question is how long that would take. It would certainly be hastened if China tries to more aggressively extend influence into the Americas, say by intervening in Nicaragua to hasten the construction of a rival canal.

The POD is in 2014. I don't think Trump is getting elected in this ATL. In the face of global upset, someone experienced is going to be wanted in the Oval Office. In any case, I think your ultimste analysis of the US stance is correct, and I do think China will become more (diplomatically) aggressive in the Americas.
 
Well-made, but I think this would lead not to "Icy Australia" but to a less icy southern continent in entirety.
It's a remake of my first normal map. In first version it was a Icy Australia.
Honestly, i love a lot for how mental and ASB it is. Do you have a write-up.
Thank you. No, I don't have a description of this map.
Getting some @Drakon-of-China vibes with the backronyms.
I try to do my best. The idea of Icy Australia was created as an inversion of Green Antarctica.
 
Another installment to The Terror in the Trenches, this time looking beyond the broken Earth to our solar neighbours, and a couple of interlopers too.
Marvelous, gorgeous, splendid, I love it! And that lunatic List mentioned!! Damn, give us more, man, please :D
 
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