Handover of Hong Kong and Macau with horrible Western-Chinese relations

What would be the impact on the Handover of Hong Kong and Macau with horrible Western-Chinese relations. Say worse Tiananmen Square or Third Taiwan strait crisis gone bad or Hardline anti-western leader in China or whatever.

Would Britain or Portugal still hand over Hong Kong and Macau or would they grant them independence or demand more Autonomy for them
 
Well, the Chinese actually have a legal case to get Hong Kong, since it was a 99 year lease. But if relations with China were so absurdly sour Macau TECHNICALLY diden't have a sunset date on the lease, so its possible you could get the Western powers arguing in the UN that China only gets it back if Portugal willingly concedes it. Of course, I doubt the general assembly would vote to support that notion for very long, but the US, UK, and French could prevent a binding Security Council resolution.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Yes Portugal was not technically required to hand over Macau but do not know if they would of kept it against Chinese wishes.

As for Hong Kong the sunset clause was for new territory not the whole colony so technically Britain had to return part of Hong Kong but not all of it.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Is it even viable without the new territories ?

That I will leave for others to answer. Would Britain keep part of Hong Kong if PRC demanded it all? I was simply clarifying the statement about need to return Hong Kong.

Note: The communist Chinese have regarded any treaty signed by China prior to their ascendance to power as NULL and VOID. So they viewed both the Chinese treaties with Portugal and Britain ceding Macau and Hong Kong as illegal treaties signed under duress.
 
What would be the impact on the Handover of Hong Kong and Macau with horrible Western-Chinese relations. Say worse Tiananmen Square or Third Taiwan strait crisis gone bad or Hardline anti-western leader in China or whatever.
Britain wouldn't care what happened to the Chinese people in Hong Kong. That's not why you have colonies. As long as the money got out, all's fine.
 

Philip

Donor
Note: The communist Chinese have regarded any treaty signed by China prior to their ascendance to power as NULL and VOID.

If relations had already gone south, couldn't the UK take a similar stance?

'We said we would return Hong Kong to the Qing Empire. Anyone know where we can find them? No? We better just hold on to it for safe keeping.'
 
If relations had already gone south, couldn't the UK take a similar stance?

'We said we would return Hong Kong to the Qing Empire. Anyone know where we can find them? No? We better just hold on to it for safe keeping.'
Would be a bit funny to see China threaten war only for the US to get behind the UK. Leaving the Chinese to slither away in humiliation. :p
 

Lusitania

Donor
Also the Portuguese gave all people born in Macau automatic Portuguese nationality. I know Britain did not do the same. Yes I know 300-400K is different than 5-6M. But wanted to provide a note that Portugal was willing to accept all The people there.
 
The issue here is China hold all the cards with Hong Kong. Where does all the water, and power comes from? The mainland. The PRC, that's who. All Beijing have to do is cut the power, cut the water, cut the food supply, and then play the waiting game as the British and the US deals with a massive humanitarian crisis.

And...the British did not care about Hong Kong. Even after OTL Tiananmen Square, London kept a law that denied Hong Kongers full citizenship rights including the right of residency in the United Kingdom. The UK did everything in it power to keep the Hong Kongers out while everyone else was attracting Hong Kong immigrants as 97 roll around. (Canada and the USA have more Hongkongers then the UK.)

Hong Kong is almost in the same boat of Aden: A similar port city that the UK abandoned without caring for its inhabitants in 1963.

As for Hong Kong the sunset clause was for new territory not the whole colony so technically Britain had to return part of Hong Kong but not all of it.

Is it even viable without the new territories ?


It is logistically impossible to actually hold onto Hong Kong without the New Territories, so no.

As for Macau...Portugal does not what colonies anymore. Portugal in fact offer to give Macau back a couple of times. (1967, and 1974.) They wanted to get rid of Macau.
 
The issue here is China hold all the cards with Hong Kong. Where does all the water, and power comes from? The main. The PRC, that's who. All Beijing have to do is cut the power, cut the water, cut the food supply, and then play the waiting game as the British and the US deals with a massive humanitarian crisis.
In 1948 they pulled off an operation to save West Berlin. If relations get that bad, they might do that for Hong Kong.
 

chankljp

Donor
It is logistically impossible to actually hold onto Hong Kong without the New Territories, so no.

THIS.

As a Hong Konger, the simply fact is that Deng Xiaoping really wasn't kidding when he said that the PRC could have 'Walk in and take the whole lot this afternoon'. The city simply cannot be defended conventionally, not to mention how food and water will be cut off almost immediately if relations with China turned sour.

Why do you think so many Hong Kong people moved overseas before 1997? Because everyone knew full well that even IF the UK really wanted to hold on to Hong Kong and had the full backing of the entire Western world (Which they don't, and the latter is ASB), you will just end up getting a reenactment of the Japanese invasion during WW2, with the city falling in a matter of weeks at best.

And the Mainland not taking back Hong Kong and Macau by force if things turn sour are not options either. The entire legitimacy for any post-Qing government in China was based on reversing the 'Century of humiliation', so regardless of the form of government, any regime that does not take the cities back after the 99 year lease was up will lose a lot of creditability in the eyes of the people, and risk instability.
 
Is it even viable without the new territories ?

Yes. Very much so. Speaking as a Hong Kong resident, the new territories are kinda like Hong Kong’s boonies.

If relations had already gone south, couldn't the UK take a similar stance?

'We said we would return Hong Kong to the Qing Empire. Anyone know where we can find them? No? We better just hold on to it for safe keeping.'

I’m imagining Taiwanese HK now.
 
In 1948 they pulled off an operation to save West Berlin. If relations get that bad, they might do that for Hong Kong.

And HK is connected to the ocean. Even if you need to use warship for cargo (stopping a warship is an act of war), it’s still going to be easier than flying everything in.
 
And HK is connected to the ocean. Even if you need to use warship for cargo (stopping a warship is an act of war), it’s still going to be easier than flying everything in.
So the focus of any such operation would amount to US and UK navy ships stocked with supplies anchored in Hong Kong's harbor?
 
While it's extremely unlikely the UK would risk a large scale war over hong kong, if they have American support, i don't see how it would be even remotely hard to defend it against china. in the mid 90s (say around the third taiwan strait crisis) *taiwan* had a larger military spending than the PRC, UK/Taiwan, with american help could absolutely destroy the Chinese Navy and Air force, then they can just bomb any chinese force trying to invade hong kong. With complete control of the sea they can supply it. The only problem is that the chinese won't back down and the city state will effectively become useless.
 

Lusitania

Donor
The problem with any such operation would be Chinese “citizens” who would “find” lots of weapons in abandoned building taking up arms to United Hong Kong with China.

It would be like Russian volunteers who went to eastern Ukraine to help their brethren defend themselves from Ukraine. So too would the same thing happen here.
 
Yes Portugal was not technically required to hand over Macau but do not know if they would of kept it against Chinese wishes.

As for Hong Kong the sunset clause was for new territory not the whole colony so technically Britain had to return part of Hong Kong but not all of it.

Part of Hong Kong I presume is vague so the British in a technical sense could've gave China 1 square meter of "new land?"
 

Lusitania

Donor
Part of Hong Kong I presume is vague so the British in a technical sense could've gave China 1 square meter of "new land?"
No britain was required to return all of the new Territoty which the lease expired in 1997. It decided to not only hand over the new territory but also rest of the colony.
 
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