Italy attempting to directly rule over its Somali lands that early would spook the Hobyo and Majeerteen Sultanates it had treaties with and may cause them to ally with the Dervish movement which would be a disater for Italy.
How can Italy defeat and conquer Ethiopia?
- Thread starter T-Mag 3004
- Start date
Well, it partly happened IOTL, Italy established notional direct rule over coastal Benadir at the time.
It was more complicated than this; Crispi for internal reason wanted colonial prestige and Menelik used the italian to subdue some problematic ras that controlled the Tigrai and also for a 'rally behind the flag' factor also for internal reason. Said that at the beginning of 1896 Menelik see his objective achieved and tried to start some negotiation with Italy, but Crispi and the hardliner wanted the reinstallation of the previous Treaty under the italian interpretation and the negotiation failed (in reality both great part of the goverment and of the population were not really behind the war). If Crispi it's ousted or 'convinced' (probably by the King as between them there were not such great relationship), the new goverment will end the hostilities with some concession (like a formal delimitation border in Somalia and Eritrea, the latter will include the OTL border, that were litteraly buy out from Abyssinia in 1902 and some piece of Tigrai).
Butterfly for Italy are big, lot less money wasted, probably aquisition of a chinese concession in 1898 (British compensation for having Kassala given back, but the post-Adwa italian diplomacy botched the attempt) and for Libya a simple Bosnia-like agreement will be seen as sufficient by Italy
I understand that the Italian political situation wasn't favorable at the time of the First Italo-Ethiopian War which is one of the reasons why the Italians lost. I doubt the Italians are going to be able to enforce the Italian colonial administration's rule in Ethiopia without losses in men and material so it'd make more sense for the Italians to be more subtle in transforming Ethiopia into a Italian protectorate through treaties as it may become a direct colony under Mussolini. A part of the Ogaden province might be ceded to Italian Somaliland some time later as the Italians begin expanding their influence and Ethiopia may retain Tigray as it's seen as more Habesha then say, the Somali regions.
What other changes do you think would happen if Ethiopia became an Italian protectorate?
Didn't the Italians begin truly expanding into the Somali interior when Mohammed Abdullah Hassan - leader of the Dervish movement - died alongside with his movement in the early 20s? If the Italians secure a number of military bases in southern Ethiopia, perhaps they can expand their influence earlier but I'm not sure how plausible it would be.
Yeah but they left the Sultanates alone until the Mad Mullah was dead and even once they managed to take the Sultanate of Hobyo, a rebellion occured and they nearly lost it until the Italians figured out clan rivalries and started exploiting it. The Italians signed protectorate agreements with the two kingdoms on the Benadir coast in which they let them have internal rule but foreign policy had to go through them (also helps the lands were so dry that both Sultanates heavily relied on trade so they were unattractive for settlers).
Yeah they waited until the Mad Mullah was dead and Mussolini was tired of carefully hopping around and sticking to protectorate agreements. The Somali interior at the time was quite chaotic as the British were struggling trying to keep expanionist Somali clans out of Kenya while fighting against the Mad Mullah. Airpower drastically changed the situation for the better or worse depending which side you are. I doubt the Italians would be able to exert any influence in the area without airpower. However the Dervish controlling a large part of the Coast (The Warsangali Sultanate would swing to him if the Majeerteen and Hobyo does). The Mad Mullah dominated the interior known as the Ogaden region so his death is required for the Italians to have any real influence from South Ethiopia. However they might be able to swing across a few clans but the Dervish would ruthlessly crush them.
If Italy has Ethiopia early, there is the possibility that Fascism never arises in its OTL form.
This. Going for the usual divide et impera tactic could have done wonders for Italy.
Let’s say fascism does rise anyway - what would it look like in Ethiopia?
Race Laws, harsh repression, settlers. Like IOTL, but more of it for longer. As positive side, no destruction due to the war of conquest, so perhaps not as bloody as IOTL unless unless some significant insurgency takes place (which it might).
Perhaps an Italian-educated Ethiopian intelligentsia spearheads this insurgency?
Would the Italians be capable of pacifying any Ethiopian resistance? If the fascist Italian administration reacts similarly to the Ethiopian insurgency as they did in the OTL 30s, then you might see a nationwide Ethiopian revolt that comes into control of the countryside and even a few major towns.
If they have no other business busying them elsewhere, they would have the ability, I think. At least in the short-medium term. I assume a Fascist regime would also have the political will to do that.
I'm not sure, considering the Italians had four years IOTL in attempting to wipe out the Ethiopian Patriots but failed. How else would Italian Ethiopia be affected by fascism?