2010 US Presidential Election

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What if Gault's strategy backfires on him? We know Indiana and its 54 delegates will cross the floor to vote Gault after the first ballot, but what guarantee is there that his delegates don't cross to Durham or Shallick?
 
What if Gault's strategy backfires on him? We know Indiana and its 54 delegates will cross the floor to vote Gault after the first ballot, but what guarantee is there that his delegates don't cross to Durham or Shallick?
I don't think that would bother him personally.

Gaults whole argument is that the Delegates are supreme and the Delegates get to make the final decision not the party elite.

If after the first ballot his delegates move to Shallick then thats their will and thus okay.
 
If Gault actually believes that, then he should release his delegates, he States "delegates are supreme", okay then he shouldn't force them to support him. Let them make a free choice. Somehow I think he is engaging in semantics and he's quoting talking points for the masses.
 
Just a reminder, two UK by-elections tomorrow in St Albans and Sheffield Central. Both are "safe" seats for the Conservatives and Labour. I will post results during Friday.
 
BBC.CO.UK/Politics
Friday June 15th 2018


Conservatives and Labour win by-elections

Both the Conservatives and Labour easily held onto St Albans and Sheffield Central in bye-elections caused by both previous MP's being elected as City Mayors in London and Sheffeld.

In St Albans the Conservative Majority was up slightly by 387 votes on the 2013 General Election result with Hertfordshire County Councillor Simon Lake winning with 45.97% with the Liberal Democrats Joan Nelson in second place with 27.09%, an overall swing to the Conservatives of 1.76% and a majority of 10,504. Labour and it's candidate Dave Blakely increased it's vote by 4.43% although they remained in third place.

In Sheffield Central, it was a good win for the Leader of Sheffield City Council Norman Pickering, as he increased the majority of the 2013 General Election to 22,355 and 52.98% of the vote, and increase of 7.11%. It was a strong performance from the Socialist Alliance and it's candidate Mark Lamb as they finished in second place with 12.28% of the vote and an increase of 2.69% and jumped above both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative vote fell by 5.02% and the Liberal Democrat vote by 8.23%. The overall swing was from Conservative to Labour was 6.06% which if repeated at the General Election nationwide wipe out the Conservatives overall majority, although they would remain the largest party.

St Albans Conservative Hold

Conservative Simon Lake 25,575 45.97% 0.01%
Liberal Democrat Joan Nelson 15,071 27.09% -3.52%
Labour Dave Blakely 9,636 17.32% 4.43%
National Peoples Party Christopher Stone 3,089 5.55% 3.67%
Green Party Adrian Townsend 1,048 1.88% -0.10%
Save the NHS John Taylor 406 0.73% NA
Leave the EU Now Alf Butler 387 0.70% N/A
Happy Sunshine Party Ivor "Captain" Buxomley 245 0.44% 0.26%
English Independence Party Stan Roberts 75 0.13% N/A
The Dog Lovers Party Jack Russell 47 0.08% N/A
Lets Have a Party Party Hugo "Ding Don" Bell 33 0.06% N/A
Techno Progressive Party Julian Bailey 21 0.04% N/A
Majority: 10,504 55,633 100.00% Con Majority up 387 (1.76 % Swing Lib Dem to Con)

Sheffield Central Labour Hold

Labour Norman Pickering 29,103 52.98% 7.11%
Socialist Alliance Mark Lamb 6,748 12.28% 2.69%
Conservative Aiden Rimmer 5,201 9.47% -5.02%
Liberal Democrat Daniel Dunne 5,109 9.30% -8.23%
National Peoples Party Thomas Lewis 4,908 8.94% 2.85%
Green Party Terri Lyon 3,044 5.54% 3.37%
Yorkshire First Peter Bromley 350 0.64% N/A
The Peoples Lobby Frank Walker 163 0.30% N/A
Happy Sunshine Party Cotton Pied Ken 138 0.25% 0.02%
English Independence Party Michael Bishop 81 0.15% N/A
Fancy Dress Party Karen "Party" Parker 35 0.06% N/A
Independent Sam Critchley 30 0.05% N/A
Techno Progressive Party Jake Adams 19 0.03% N/A
Majority: 22,355 54,929 100.00% Labour Majority up 7,871 (6.06 % Swing Con to Lab)

Analysis

With the General Election due by November, what can we read into the two by-election results in two safe seats for the two main parties.

There where no upsets clearly, but in both seats the Liberal Democrat vote was down and the NPP vote up. When we look at swing between Labour and the Conservatives what do we get. Well the swing between them in St Albans was 2.22 from Conservative to Labour (Labour up 4.43% and the conservatives up 0.01%, add those together 4.44% divide by 2 and you have the swing). In Sheffield Central Labour achieved a swing of 6.06% from the Conservatives to themselves. Now if you add both swings together and divide by two, you get a swing to Labour of 4.14%, which on a uniform national swing would give the Conservatives a reduced majority of around 50 seats, which is what the vast majority of the polls have been saying for months now. So it seems in this very small sample of the electorate that the opinion polls are being born out.
 
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Wednesday June 20th 2018

Presidential Election Polls

Match-up: Seaborn v Shallick

  • Seaborn 45%
  • Shallick 39%
  • Undecided 17%
Seaborn leads by 6%
Match-up: Seaborn v Gault
  • Seaborn 43%
  • Gault 42%
  • Undecided 15%
Seaborn leads by 1%
Match-up: Seaborn v Durham
  • Seaborn 46%
  • Durham 37%
  • Undecided 17%
Seaborn leads by 9%
 
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Wednesday June 20th 2018

Presidential Election Polls

Match-up: Seaborn v Shallick

  • Seaborn 45%
  • Shallick 39%
  • Undecided 17%
Seaborn leads by 6%
Match-up: Seaborn v Gault
  • Seaborn 43%
  • Gault 42%
  • Undecided 15%
Seaborn leads by 1%
Match-up: Seaborn v Durham
  • Seaborn 46%
  • Durham 37%
  • Undecided 17%
Seaborn leads by 9%
Is Gault polling so strongly against Seaborn because of his strong performance in the last 4 primaries, or because voters actually like him? Because Shallick's argument up until now has been that he'd be stronger against Seaborn than anyone else in the field. This doesn't bode well for his campaign.
 
Is Gault polling so strongly against Seaborn because of his strong performance in the last 4 primaries, or because voters actually like him? Because Shallick's argument up until now has been that he'd be stronger against Seaborn than anyone else in the field. This doesn't bode well for his campaign.
It's a bit of both, the more people hear him they understand he is not the stereotypical Conservative right politician, the quote I already used is "he talks human not politician" , his out reach to the LGBT community was a stroke of genius, and he has now something all politicans running for office have he has the "big mo" as he heads to Tampa in just over 4 weeks time.
The Poll help destroys as you say Shallick's argument is that he is the only candidate that can win the General against Seaborn and Gault would lose in a Rob Ritchie like landslide.
 
Just a reminder regards the Conventions:
Democrats Monday July 16th to Thursday July 19th in Cleveland Ohio (Quicken Loans Arena)
Republicans Monday July 23d to Thursday July 26th in Tampa, Florida ( Amalie Arena- The Tampa Convention centre will act as the Media centre)
 
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Not to burst the Gault bubble, outreach to LGBT community stroke of Genius or not, Gault like all politician's will come under microscope as never before, as now he is just not the other guy after Shallick but a real contender and the scrutiny will be intense. The pro-Seaborn media will disect every position, every statement and every political decision made by Gault. There is a possibility he will just get mired down by some sort of controversy created by his yet unexamined record, and all Gault will be doing is explaining a position or defending himself. The polls are close now, because he has the "Big Mo" and the shine hasn't yet worn off. There is an ambush on the way and don't be surprised to see Shallick's people being involved in some way. His hanging up on President Walken might yet come back to haunt him. It's just a question of time, mark my words.
 
Tampa Convention Center? Wouldn't it be better to use the Tampa Bay Times Forum (it is now called the Amalie Arena). The convention center would likely host the media & press. Also serving as the nerve center for the RNC & all 3 campaigns. That being said, the Amelie Arena hosts Basketball & ice hockey games along with Arena football as well as concerts, so it would have the seating and the sky boxes for the networks, as I'm sure so does the Quicken Loans Arena. Just a thought.
 
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Not to burst the Gault bubble, outreach to LGBT community stroke of Genius or not, Gault like all politician's will come under microscope as never before, as now he is just not the other guy after Shallick but a real contender and the scrutiny will be intense. The pro-Seaborn media will disect every position, every statement and every political decision made by Gault. There is a possibility he will just get mired down by some sort of controversy created by his yet unexamined record, and all Gault will be doing is explaining a position or defending himself. The polls are close now, because he has the "Big Mo" and the shine hasn't yet worn off. There is an ambush on the way and don't be surprised to see Shallick's people being involved in some way. His hanging up on President Walken might yet come back to haunt him. It's just a question of time, mark my words.

Gault would have been through much of that scrutiny the minute he won in Iowa and then went neck-and-neck with Shallick. I don't think the level of focus is going to change on any one of them.
 
Tampa Convention Center? Wouldn't it be better to use the Tampa Bay Times Forum (it is now called the Amalie Arena). The convention center would likely host the media & press. Also serving as the nerve center for the RNC & all 3 campaigns. That being said, the Amelie Arena hosts Basketball & ice hockey games along with Arena football as well as concerts, so it would have the seating and the sky boxes for the networks, as I'm sure so does the Quicken Loans Arena. Just a thought.
My mistake, changed now. Thanks.
 
Why doesn't Josh Lyman have a role in the Seaborn campaign? Weren't they very close once? I thought Lyman would be great as the day-to-day & nuts & bolt kinda manager, C.J. Cregg is ideal in the role of Chairman, setting overall tone of campaign. It would be awesome if Aaron Sorkin took a look at this thread and decided to do a West Wing redux TV series or even a movie with Rob Lowe reprising his role as Sam Seaborn, look it from his point of view. Have John Goodman on the show as GlennAllen Walken, could have flashbacks to the period of Sam Seaborn going for the Senate. Don't know why, most of the protagonists are still alive, Martin Sheen, Jimmy Smits, Alan Alda. I always wondered why, there would an awful lot of material, particularly about a resurgent Russia. Has Sorkin even been approached?
 
Why doesn't Josh Lyman have a role in the Seaborn campaign? Weren't they very close once? I thought Lyman would be great as the day-to-day & nuts & bolt kinda manager, C.J. Cregg is ideal in the role of Chairman, setting overall tone of campaign. It would be awesome if Aaron Sorkin took a look at this thread and decided to do a West Wing redux TV series or even a movie with Rob Lowe reprising his role as Sam Seaborn, look it from his point of view. Have John Goodman on the show as GlennAllen Walken, could have flashbacks to the period of Sam Seaborn going for the Senate. Don't know why, most of the protagonists are still alive, Martin Sheen, Jimmy Smits, Alan Alda. I always wondered why, there would an awful lot of material, particularly about a resurgent Russia. Has Sorkin even been approached?

I did a search of Lyman in this thread to find the exact post on when Sam and CJ forced him out, and I do see that you have asked this question before. I suppose the answer provided was not found sufficiant, but here is the here is the specific post addressing the fate of Josh:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ential-election.109942/page-481#post-16132335

I imagine if you are Josh Lyman, getting thrown out of the top job to shake up the campaign, it could only be seen as an insult to take a lower role in the Seaborn campaign. Though, Lyman being the loyal party soldier has appeared as a pundit during the campaign. Like here:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ential-election.109942/page-496#post-16640709
 
Josh Lyman is in a very similar position to that of Ron Klain, who was forced out from running the Gore Campaign early in the 2000 cycle, then came back to run the Press/communications team towards the end of the Presidential campaign v Bush. Meaning he could come back in a lower capacity as Klain did in real life.
 
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Wednesday June 27th 2016

No endorsement but Gault meets with Arnold Vinick for two hours

In a surprise move Kansas Governor Peter Gault had an two hour meeting with the 2006 nominee and former Secretary of State Arnold Vinick at his home in Santa Paula this morning. After the meeting the two men took questions from the press who had been told of the meeting at short notice.

"This is not an endorsement" Vinick told the press "I will remain neutral, and will support whoever the nominee is" adding "I have a confession to make, I believed what people where saying about the Governor without forming my own opinion, that was wrong. You look at his record as Governor in Kanas, he has balanced every budget, cut waste but also cut taxes for the working and middle class, that something I will always support, also look at his record in education, improved test scores, crime down, and interest free loans for small business that's something again that we as Republicans have to be doing" asked if they agree on everything no, he laughed "of course not, we will always agree to disagree on Abortion and religion, but the Governor understands my personnel reasons for these views, we are both Republicans and we have far more in common than the liberal media would say we have".

As for Gault he said it was a "honour to meet and speak with one of the Republicans greatest figures in the last half century. Arnie put service to this country above any petty ill will to serve as Secretary of State for two Presidents, he is frankly a giant. I understand that I need to understand more of World affairs if I am to be our nominee, who else better to speak to and get advice from probably our greatest ever Secretary of State" he also said it was a "pleasure to see the Secretary's collection of rare books and bibles" (Vinick is an avid book collector and restorer).

The meeting is understood to have been brokered by Arnold Vinick's daughter Jennifer who heaped praise on the Governor following his trip to the LGBT Castro district in San Francisco last month. Arnold Vinick is believed to have called his daughter following that now famous walk about saying "I want to meet him, that's something I would have done right there".
 
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Thursday June 28th 2018

Shallick campaign laughs off Vinick-Gault meeting as they vet possible running-mates

The Shallick campaign has laughed off the meeting between Arnold Vinick and Peter Gault yesterday with Senator Laura Shallick calling it a "stunt".

"People always respected Arnie (Vinick) because of his experience and duty of service to this country, but that was a stunt yesterday. Governor Gault is trying to convince everyone he is now a "Vinick Republican" give me a break, he once said all gay people "would go to hell" now he is now trying to pretend he has changed, I find it a shame the Secretary Vinick has fallen for a stunt".

That attack came as news broke that the Shallick campaign has former Cliff Calley (who lost the race for Virginia Governor last year) and was briefly working on the ill-feted Clark campaign to head it's VP selection "We are preceding on the fact that we believe Governor Shallick we will be our nominee" Calley told the press. NBS understands that names on Shallick's list include Congressman and fellow delegate winner Will Durham, who has already spoken to the Shallick campaign, along with New Mexico Senator Michael Rojas, Wisconsin Senator Nolan Kinnaird and Colorado Governor Oliver Moseley.
 
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I think Shallick-Durham between them are going to prevent Gault from making it any further beyond the first ballot. Durham in exchange for the V.P. spot will pledge his delegates to Shallick & that means that Shallick will have the required delegates to secure the party nomination on the first ballot. I think the Shallick team called the Gault-Vinick meeting for what it was, a meaningless stunt. Note how Vinick declined to give Gault the endorsement Gault was hoping for. Think the White House called Vinick up & Walken urged Vinick not to involve himself with Gault. Hanging up on Walken might be something the Kansan will rue.
 
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