BBC.CO.UK/Politics
Friday June 15th 2018
Conservatives and Labour win by-elections
Both the Conservatives and Labour easily held onto St Albans and Sheffield Central in bye-elections caused by both previous MP's being elected as City Mayors in London and Sheffeld.
In St Albans the Conservative Majority was up slightly by 387 votes on the 2013 General Election result with Hertfordshire County Councillor Simon Lake winning with 45.97% with the Liberal Democrats Joan Nelson in second place with 27.09%, an overall swing to the Conservatives of 1.76% and a majority of 10,504. Labour and it's candidate Dave Blakely increased it's vote by 4.43% although they remained in third place.
In Sheffield Central, it was a good win for the Leader of Sheffield City Council Norman Pickering, as he increased the majority of the 2013 General Election to 22,355 and 52.98% of the vote, and increase of 7.11%. It was a strong performance from the Socialist Alliance and it's candidate Mark Lamb as they finished in second place with 12.28% of the vote and an increase of 2.69% and jumped above both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative vote fell by 5.02% and the Liberal Democrat vote by 8.23%. The overall swing was from Conservative to Labour was 6.06% which if repeated at the General Election nationwide wipe out the Conservatives overall majority, although they would remain the largest party.
St Albans Conservative Hold
Conservative Simon Lake 25,575 45.97% 0.01%
Liberal Democrat Joan Nelson 15,071 27.09% -3.52%
Labour Dave Blakely 9,636 17.32% 4.43%
National Peoples Party Christopher Stone 3,089 5.55% 3.67%
Green Party Adrian Townsend 1,048 1.88% -0.10%
Save the NHS John Taylor 406 0.73% NA
Leave the EU Now Alf Butler 387 0.70% N/A
Happy Sunshine Party Ivor "Captain" Buxomley 245 0.44% 0.26%
English Independence Party Stan Roberts 75 0.13% N/A
The Dog Lovers Party Jack Russell 47 0.08% N/A
Lets Have a Party Party Hugo "Ding Don" Bell 33 0.06% N/A
Techno Progressive Party Julian Bailey 21 0.04% N/A
Majority: 10,504 55,633 100.00% Con Majority up 387 (1.76 % Swing Lib Dem to Con)
Sheffield Central Labour Hold
Labour Norman Pickering 29,103 52.98% 7.11%
Socialist Alliance Mark Lamb 6,748 12.28% 2.69%
Conservative Aiden Rimmer 5,201 9.47% -5.02%
Liberal Democrat Daniel Dunne 5,109 9.30% -8.23%
National Peoples Party Thomas Lewis 4,908 8.94% 2.85%
Green Party Terri Lyon 3,044 5.54% 3.37%
Yorkshire First Peter Bromley 350 0.64% N/A
The Peoples Lobby Frank Walker 163 0.30% N/A
Happy Sunshine Party Cotton Pied Ken 138 0.25% 0.02%
English Independence Party Michael Bishop 81 0.15% N/A
Fancy Dress Party Karen "Party" Parker 35 0.06% N/A
Independent Sam Critchley 30 0.05% N/A
Techno Progressive Party Jake Adams 19 0.03% N/A
Majority: 22,355 54,929 100.00% Labour Majority up 7,871 (6.06 % Swing Con to Lab)
Analysis
With the General Election due by November, what can we read into the two by-election results in two safe seats for the two main parties.
There where no upsets clearly, but in both seats the Liberal Democrat vote was down and the NPP vote up. When we look at swing between Labour and the Conservatives what do we get. Well the swing between them in St Albans was 2.22 from Conservative to Labour (Labour up 4.43% and the conservatives up 0.01%, add those together 4.44% divide by 2 and you have the swing). In Sheffield Central Labour achieved a swing of 6.06% from the Conservatives to themselves. Now if you add both swings together and divide by two, you get a swing to Labour of 4.14%, which on a uniform national swing would give the Conservatives a reduced majority of around 50 seats, which is what the vast majority of the polls have been saying for months now. So it seems in this very small sample of the electorate that the opinion polls are being born out.